My personal view on the AI in HK is that it ticks all of my key "asks" from a 4x AI:
1. Acts as a "speed bump": check. Early reports suggest this is not true in the release build for lower difficulty levels, but once you raise the difficulty level a little, you cannot play the game as a solo experience and ignore your neighbours. You need to have a strategy to deal with them, either to dissuade them from attacking or otherwise. Pretending the rest of the world doesn't exist while you build a game-winning economic engine will not work - the world will come knocking.
2. Acts as a "pace car": check [EDIT: not so fast, see comments below]. It won't take too many games at higher difficulty levels to run into situations where you need to deal with AI empires that are racing ahead of you in the fame game. There's room for improvement here - the AI could learn how to use some game systems better, and I suspect it will as the sense I get is that this is an area of current focus for the dev team. But if you want to start up a game where you're not sure if you'll win if you don't play efficiently, I suspect the AI can already give you a run at higher difficulty levels.
3. The game plays differently depending on who my neighbours are: check. The diplomacy system is rather nuanced, so this may or may not be obvious right out of the box, but the behaviour of the AI is very much impacted by their traits. So how the game plays out will differ based on who you have on your borders (although it seems like in the release build this isn't quite so true at lower difficulty levels, as the starting difficulty levels seem to have either tamped down the aggressiveness of some AI traits or generally nerfed the impact of all AI traits, not sure which it is exactly).
An additional comment on the tactical combat competence of the AI: this has come along in leaps and bounds, in part because the dev team has been conscientious about seeking out examples when the AI acted stupidly, analyzing why it did so, and teaching it to be smarter, There are still some situations that the AI struggles to handle properly, but I expect the number of such situations to continue to dwindle. If you run into an example where the AI made a bonehead move during tactical combat, I'd encourage you to share it either here or on games2gether, as the dev team in my experience has been eager to teach the AI to fight as well as it can.
EDIT: I'm seeing reports on
@Krajzen 's thread that my comments re the AI being an effective pace car in item 2 may not be true as of the release build. It certainly was true in pre-release builds I got to try out, but perhaps something broke and/or the play balance was tilted towards making things easier for the player (either purposefully or accidentally). Anyway, I'll now consider that item to be not checked.