Zarn
Le Républicain Catholique
The night classes for my college are cancelled (yes classes in New Jersey). All I miss is an easy computer course. Possibly tomorrow mornings classes will be closed, too.
Hurricane Isabel
- Thread starter Quasar1011
- Start date
Quasar1011
King of Sylvania
Actually, hail is not common with hurricanes. Lightning and thunder are not as common in hurricanes either, as with "regular" thunderstorms. But putting your cars underground would be a good idea, since any object can be turned into a missile by the hurricane or tropical storm force winds. Just make sure the underground garage isn't likely to flood!
Quasar1011
King of Sylvania
HURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 51
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2003
ISABEL MADE LANDFALL ON THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA NEAR DRUM
INLET...BETWEEN CAPE LOOKOUT AND OCRACOKE ISLAND...NEAR 17Z THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS ESTIMATED NEAR 85 KT. A GPS DROPSONDE
REPORTED SURFACE WINDS OF 83 KT ABOUT AN HOUR BEFORE LANDFALL A FEW
MILES FROM CAPE HATTERAS IN THE NORTHEAST EYEWALL. THE STEPPED
FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER ON BOARD THE NOAA P-3 AIRCRAFT
REPORTED SURFACE WINDS OF 90 KT AT 1707Z IN THE SAME AREA...AND
ANOTHER MEASUREMENT OF 82 KT WAS REPORTED ABOUT AN HOUR EARLIER.
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 118 KT.
THE AIRCRAFT MEASUREMENTS WERE CONFIRMED BY GROUND-BASED DOPPLER
RADARS. A LARGE NUMBER OF DROPSONDES IN ISABEL INDICATE THAT
SURFACE WINDS WERE AVERAGING ABOUT 70% OF THE FLIGHT-LEVEL VALUES
OVER THE LAST DAY OR TWO...AND THIS ALSO YIELDS ABOUT 83 KT FOR A
PEAK SURFACE WIND ESTIMATE.
ISABEL CONTINUES INLAND...AND WHILE THERE HAS BEEN SOME SHARPENING
UP OF THE EYEWALL AFTER LANDFALL...THE MAXIMUM WINDS SHOULD BE
DECREASING. GIVEN THE PRESENT ORGANIZATION OF THE CORE AND THE
LARGE AND STRONG CIRCULATION ALOFT...THE FORECAST DECREASE OF WIND
IS SLOWER THAN INDICATED BY THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE. THE
STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL BE FELT IN THE FORM OF HURRICANE FORCE WIND
GUSTS WELL INLAND OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN OF NORTHERN VIRGINIA
AND WESTERN MARYLAND...AS WELL AS ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS AND OTHER
STRUCTURES IN MAJOR METROPOLITAN AREAS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE PATH OF ISABEL.
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK. ISABEL IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN 36 HOURS AND BE ABSORBED
AFTER 48 HOURS.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2003
ISABEL MADE LANDFALL ON THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA NEAR DRUM
INLET...BETWEEN CAPE LOOKOUT AND OCRACOKE ISLAND...NEAR 17Z THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS ESTIMATED NEAR 85 KT. A GPS DROPSONDE
REPORTED SURFACE WINDS OF 83 KT ABOUT AN HOUR BEFORE LANDFALL A FEW
MILES FROM CAPE HATTERAS IN THE NORTHEAST EYEWALL. THE STEPPED
FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER ON BOARD THE NOAA P-3 AIRCRAFT
REPORTED SURFACE WINDS OF 90 KT AT 1707Z IN THE SAME AREA...AND
ANOTHER MEASUREMENT OF 82 KT WAS REPORTED ABOUT AN HOUR EARLIER.
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 118 KT.
THE AIRCRAFT MEASUREMENTS WERE CONFIRMED BY GROUND-BASED DOPPLER
RADARS. A LARGE NUMBER OF DROPSONDES IN ISABEL INDICATE THAT
SURFACE WINDS WERE AVERAGING ABOUT 70% OF THE FLIGHT-LEVEL VALUES
OVER THE LAST DAY OR TWO...AND THIS ALSO YIELDS ABOUT 83 KT FOR A
PEAK SURFACE WIND ESTIMATE.
ISABEL CONTINUES INLAND...AND WHILE THERE HAS BEEN SOME SHARPENING
UP OF THE EYEWALL AFTER LANDFALL...THE MAXIMUM WINDS SHOULD BE
DECREASING. GIVEN THE PRESENT ORGANIZATION OF THE CORE AND THE
LARGE AND STRONG CIRCULATION ALOFT...THE FORECAST DECREASE OF WIND
IS SLOWER THAN INDICATED BY THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE. THE
STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL BE FELT IN THE FORM OF HURRICANE FORCE WIND
GUSTS WELL INLAND OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN OF NORTHERN VIRGINIA
AND WESTERN MARYLAND...AS WELL AS ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS AND OTHER
STRUCTURES IN MAJOR METROPOLITAN AREAS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE PATH OF ISABEL.
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK. ISABEL IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN 36 HOURS AND BE ABSORBED
AFTER 48 HOURS.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
Attachments
Quasar1011
King of Sylvania
Quasar1011
King of Sylvania
Some early images of the effects of Isabel. Note that the car is not driving across snow, but wind-whipped surf.
Drewcifer
Agent of Karma
Looking at the projected track I have a question. Is Isabel going to push the jet stream all the way up to northern Quebec or is it going to cross over to the other side of the jet stream? I wouldn't have thought that either would be possible. It's path over the the Great Lakes and Canada looks unusual.
h4ppy
You sir, pineapple?
[dance] Whoo-hoo, the power is back on. This is great not only do I get out of taking a french and a history test but the lights came back on so I could use the computer.
Quasar1011
King of Sylvania
RICHMOND, Va. Hurricane Isabel was weakened to a tropical depression by Friday but managed to leave at least 17 people dead and more than 5.5 million homes and businesses powerless.
After wreaking havoc on the East Coast, particularly on North Carolina's Outer Banks and along Virginia beach communities, Isabel raced toward Canada on Friday, soaking some tidal communities along Chesapeake Bay but breezing inland with less rain than expected.
In the Baltimore area, tidal flooding forced rescue crews to take out 400 people, some by boat, as waters rose to the second story of some buildings in low-lying areas.
Thirty-four people and a dog were removed from homes in the city as rescue crews worked their way down Thames Street in an inflatable boat.
The storm was blamed for at least 17 deaths: nine in Virginia, three in North Carolina, two in Maryland and one each in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Rhode Island.
By 11 a.m. Friday, Isabel was 50 miles northeast of Cleveland, moving north at around 30 mph.
According to Accuweather.com, the still weakening Isabel will continue to move quickly northward Friday, merging with a storm system over eastern Canada by nighttime.
A day after plowing into the Outer Banks with 100 mph winds, Isabel moved across Virginia, West Virginia and Pennsylvania on Friday as its winds eased to around 35 mph -- just below the threshold for a tropical storm. The storm dumped as much as 4 inches of rain in Pennsylvania before moving toward Ohio, and was expected to dissipate in Canada by Saturday.
Brighter skies on Friday brought the first good look at the damage along the Outer Banks. Power was out along the entire 120-mile barrier island chain, and the main road was impassable in several stretches, covered with sand, debris and downed power lines.
At least two fishing piers were destroyed and storm surge flooding wrecked several beach houses, sending washers, dryers, trash cans and other debris floating into the street. Federal officials were checking on 4,000 people who refused to evacuate.
Inland residents worked in the brilliant sunshine to repair damage from waist-deep floodwaters that rushed in and quickly receded.
"It kind of looks like they misplaced the bomb for Saddam and dropped it here," said Brooks Stalnaker, 72, whose home collapsed in the inland community of Harlowe. "We just got totaled."
The storm blew down three Baltimore buildings that would have to be demolished and downed trees and utility lines.
In Washington, the federal government shut down for a second day Friday. Offices and monuments were all but abandoned, frustrating tourists.
"I think it's a little overkill," said Los Angeles tourist Sandra de Dubovay. "Some people only have a day here. It is frustrating."
At Arlington National Cemetery, soldiers who guard the Tomb of the Unknowns were given -- for the first time ever -- permission to abandon their posts and seek shelter during the storm but they stood guard anyhow.
West Virginia got up to 5 inches of rain -- but far less than the original forecast of a foot. Flood advisories for parts of the state were canceled. Delaware rainfall amounts averaged 1 to 2 inches, about half of what forecasters were predicting.
Michael Brown, director of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, cautioned that residents in Isabel's path should keep their guard up, with flood waters moving into tributaries throughout the day.
"So people just because they see blue skies should not think, 'Oh this storm is gone and the aftermath is over with,'" he said in a television interview.
Some of the worst flooding Thursday was along the Chesapeake Bay, where an 8.2-foot storm surge sent water into low-lying areas, particularly in Norfolk and Portsmouth.
About 1.6 million customers lost power in Virginia alone, and more than 16,000 people filled evacuation shelters. Dominion Virginia Power said it would take days to restore power.
"Virginians need to realize that they're in for a tough couple of days," said Gov. Mark Warner.
In Virginia Beach, Ed Barry, 61, spent Friday morning picking up shingles from his roof and his wood fence from his yard in the resort city's north end. "That's the price you pay for living on the coastline," Barry said.
Water service was lost or diminished in many areas because pumping stations lost power; residents were advised to boil water before drinking it.
Richard Staublein, 42, drove his family 13 miles for their first meal in a day, a breakfast at McDonald's in a Richmond suburb -- and waited 50 minutes in line. Many had not eaten because they lost power and were unable to cook.
"I left the house around 8 a.m. and when I got here the line was already a killer," Staublein said.
President Bush declared major disasters in North Carolina and Virginia, ordering federal aid to both states. The governors of Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Maryland, New Jersey and Delaware declared state emergencies.
With mid-Atlantic states left sodden by an unusually wet summer, the winds toppled trees and rains flooded creeks and low-lying areas.
Maryland Gov. Robert Ehrlich said flooding, whether from storm surges on the Eastern Shore or heavy rainfall, was "the No. 1 danger." Officials said 1.25 million customers were without power in the state.
The storm knocked out generators at two water treatment plants and a sewage treatment plant in Anne Arundel County.
County Executive Janet Owens urged residents to be patient and conserve water until power was restored.
"Putting it bluntly, please don't flush," Owens said.
The storm spared much of North Carolina the kind of damage it experienced in 1999 from Hurricane Floyd, which left 56 dead and much of the state underwater.
On isolated Ocracoke Island, about 15 people gathered at Howard's Pub to ride out the storm.
"Isabel's eye passed right over us," said Buffy Warner, the pub's owner. "It was so dramatic. The rain was actually driving horizontally with these incredibly dark skies and no visibility. Then, within about 60 seconds, the sky became bright white."
A utility employee in North Carolina was electrocuted while restoring power, and a man in Virginia drowned while canoeing. Most of the other storm-related deaths were from falling trees or car accidents.
In Middletown, N.J., Isabel sent a tree crashing through the roof of Jean Paul Zammit's house.
"It was a just a big bang and crack, and the ceiling falling down and everything falling down," said Zammit.
Well over 1,500 flights were canceled at airports in the major Eastern cities, said David Stempler, president of the Air Travelers Association.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
After wreaking havoc on the East Coast, particularly on North Carolina's Outer Banks and along Virginia beach communities, Isabel raced toward Canada on Friday, soaking some tidal communities along Chesapeake Bay but breezing inland with less rain than expected.
In the Baltimore area, tidal flooding forced rescue crews to take out 400 people, some by boat, as waters rose to the second story of some buildings in low-lying areas.
Thirty-four people and a dog were removed from homes in the city as rescue crews worked their way down Thames Street in an inflatable boat.
The storm was blamed for at least 17 deaths: nine in Virginia, three in North Carolina, two in Maryland and one each in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Rhode Island.
By 11 a.m. Friday, Isabel was 50 miles northeast of Cleveland, moving north at around 30 mph.
According to Accuweather.com, the still weakening Isabel will continue to move quickly northward Friday, merging with a storm system over eastern Canada by nighttime.
A day after plowing into the Outer Banks with 100 mph winds, Isabel moved across Virginia, West Virginia and Pennsylvania on Friday as its winds eased to around 35 mph -- just below the threshold for a tropical storm. The storm dumped as much as 4 inches of rain in Pennsylvania before moving toward Ohio, and was expected to dissipate in Canada by Saturday.
Brighter skies on Friday brought the first good look at the damage along the Outer Banks. Power was out along the entire 120-mile barrier island chain, and the main road was impassable in several stretches, covered with sand, debris and downed power lines.
At least two fishing piers were destroyed and storm surge flooding wrecked several beach houses, sending washers, dryers, trash cans and other debris floating into the street. Federal officials were checking on 4,000 people who refused to evacuate.
Inland residents worked in the brilliant sunshine to repair damage from waist-deep floodwaters that rushed in and quickly receded.
"It kind of looks like they misplaced the bomb for Saddam and dropped it here," said Brooks Stalnaker, 72, whose home collapsed in the inland community of Harlowe. "We just got totaled."
The storm blew down three Baltimore buildings that would have to be demolished and downed trees and utility lines.
In Washington, the federal government shut down for a second day Friday. Offices and monuments were all but abandoned, frustrating tourists.
"I think it's a little overkill," said Los Angeles tourist Sandra de Dubovay. "Some people only have a day here. It is frustrating."
At Arlington National Cemetery, soldiers who guard the Tomb of the Unknowns were given -- for the first time ever -- permission to abandon their posts and seek shelter during the storm but they stood guard anyhow.
West Virginia got up to 5 inches of rain -- but far less than the original forecast of a foot. Flood advisories for parts of the state were canceled. Delaware rainfall amounts averaged 1 to 2 inches, about half of what forecasters were predicting.
Michael Brown, director of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, cautioned that residents in Isabel's path should keep their guard up, with flood waters moving into tributaries throughout the day.
"So people just because they see blue skies should not think, 'Oh this storm is gone and the aftermath is over with,'" he said in a television interview.
Some of the worst flooding Thursday was along the Chesapeake Bay, where an 8.2-foot storm surge sent water into low-lying areas, particularly in Norfolk and Portsmouth.
About 1.6 million customers lost power in Virginia alone, and more than 16,000 people filled evacuation shelters. Dominion Virginia Power said it would take days to restore power.
"Virginians need to realize that they're in for a tough couple of days," said Gov. Mark Warner.
In Virginia Beach, Ed Barry, 61, spent Friday morning picking up shingles from his roof and his wood fence from his yard in the resort city's north end. "That's the price you pay for living on the coastline," Barry said.
Water service was lost or diminished in many areas because pumping stations lost power; residents were advised to boil water before drinking it.
Richard Staublein, 42, drove his family 13 miles for their first meal in a day, a breakfast at McDonald's in a Richmond suburb -- and waited 50 minutes in line. Many had not eaten because they lost power and were unable to cook.
"I left the house around 8 a.m. and when I got here the line was already a killer," Staublein said.
President Bush declared major disasters in North Carolina and Virginia, ordering federal aid to both states. The governors of Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Maryland, New Jersey and Delaware declared state emergencies.
With mid-Atlantic states left sodden by an unusually wet summer, the winds toppled trees and rains flooded creeks and low-lying areas.
Maryland Gov. Robert Ehrlich said flooding, whether from storm surges on the Eastern Shore or heavy rainfall, was "the No. 1 danger." Officials said 1.25 million customers were without power in the state.
The storm knocked out generators at two water treatment plants and a sewage treatment plant in Anne Arundel County.
County Executive Janet Owens urged residents to be patient and conserve water until power was restored.
"Putting it bluntly, please don't flush," Owens said.
The storm spared much of North Carolina the kind of damage it experienced in 1999 from Hurricane Floyd, which left 56 dead and much of the state underwater.
On isolated Ocracoke Island, about 15 people gathered at Howard's Pub to ride out the storm.
"Isabel's eye passed right over us," said Buffy Warner, the pub's owner. "It was so dramatic. The rain was actually driving horizontally with these incredibly dark skies and no visibility. Then, within about 60 seconds, the sky became bright white."
A utility employee in North Carolina was electrocuted while restoring power, and a man in Virginia drowned while canoeing. Most of the other storm-related deaths were from falling trees or car accidents.
In Middletown, N.J., Isabel sent a tree crashing through the roof of Jean Paul Zammit's house.
"It was a just a big bang and crack, and the ceiling falling down and everything falling down," said Zammit.
Well over 1,500 flights were canceled at airports in the major Eastern cities, said David Stempler, president of the Air Travelers Association.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
Quasar1011
King of Sylvania
To answer your question, no, it will not do either. Firstly, the jet stream is not always a continuous ribbon of air flowing around the Earth at high altitudes. In summer, especially, it is broken into segments. The reason for this, is that the strictest definition of a jet stream has its speed of 60 knots or greater, and in the summer, the winds often die down below that criteria.
If you look at this first chart I have posted, the remnants of Isabel are expected to be over western Quebec at 1200Z on Saturday. The red, yellow and green colours indicate the 12-hourly rainfall accumulation expected by this model. You can also pick out Isabel by the tightly packed isobars (isobar- line of equal pressure).
On this 2nd chart, the lines are not isobars, since the pressure of the entire chart is 300 millibars. They are contours, and the winds aloft tend to flow between the contours.
I have outlined the upper-level steering currents for Isabel in yellow. These currents are below jet stream criteria. You can see a weak jet stream in northeastern Canada, and a much stronger jet stream in the west. So, the jet stream was already in northern Canada before Isabel arrived. And you're right about a hurricane not crossing a jet stream; more likely, a hurricane's remnants are picked up by the jet stream, and accelerated away from the tropics, towards the poles. I hope all this answers your questions.
RedWolf
Deity
I apologize if someone has already posted this but I really don't have time to read all 5 pages of this thread and I want to share the link in case somebody's interested.
It is the Canadian Hurricane center and shows some cool sattelite photos of Issabell's progress over north america
it plays them as a slide show you can watch it like a video as it swirls all over the place)
http://www.ns.ec.gc.ca/weather/hurricane/current3.html
It is the Canadian Hurricane center and shows some cool sattelite photos of Issabell's progress over north america
it plays them as a slide show you can watch it like a video as it swirls all over the place)http://www.ns.ec.gc.ca/weather/hurricane/current3.html
There has also been one death in Long Island blamed on the high surf caused by Isabel....apparently, someone drowned off land. What the person was doing there, I didn't catch.
Bozo Erectus
Master Baker
- Joined
- Jan 22, 2003
- Messages
- 22,389
He was drowning. Wouldnt be surprised if it was a dummy trying to surf. I actually heard one of the news bunnies on TV say that Isabel was bringing great waves for surfing. Who knows how many jerks heard her say that and actually tried it.
True...there were a lot of people going to surf in those states that got hit by the hurricane...even as late as the day before.
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