Pasi Nurminen
Deity
What would be the outcome of a possible second Korean War? Before I begin, I'd like to point out that this entire post is hypothesized with North Korea as the agressor. While it's certainly possible that the Americans would try to launch another war against the "Axis of Evil" it's just not likely in the near future. Now, let's examine...
Firstly, I make the assumption that the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (henceforth referred to as the DPRK) is not capable of winning even a brief war on its own because it lacks the necessary resources to do so. There's no question that the economic plight and hardships the DPRK have had to endure over the past 15 years or so have left them incapable of substantial unilateral military action, particularly against anyone backed by the United States of America, despite massive numerical superiority.
Therefore, any DPRK war effort would depend on foreign logistics and supplies to win the day, but luckily such supplies are very likely. The Chinese have been for years looking to establish themselves as a world power, and more particularly as the Asian leader. There are several very high profile American allies near their borders (Japan, Taiwan, Thailand, not to mention the ROK), and a DPRK victory and successful reunification by force would discredit the Americans as a reliable ally in the region, pushing some countries such as Japan into a more neutral stance, while others such as Thailand and Pakistan would be moved further towards the Chinese military and economic sphere of influence. For such reasons, I believe that Chinese support would eventually amount to everything short of outright intervention, but it would start out quiet. It would only become high profile as the Chinese scented real success developing in a DPRK offensive or counteroffensive (depending on who was the agressor). At that point it would comprise of everything we saw from the Soviets in the first Korean War, up to and including sending "volunteers" out to do fighting for the DPRK. This support would have to begin long before any actual offensive action on the part of the communists were to take place, as the DPRK does not have stockpiles of the material needed to launch such a war to begin with.
Russian support would be a lot less likely. Although the Russians are just as eager to reassert the power that the Soviets held over much of the world, they'd stand to gain a lot less than the Chinese would.
In order to win, the DPRK would probably also need to launch a suprise offensive across the DMZ as they'd stand less chance of winning a defensive war. They'd need to maintain the initiative at every turn, because the ROK possesses massive reserve forces (numbering 3.1 million) that dwarf even the DPRK forces. They'd have to not allow any time for the ROK to mobilize these reserves. They'd probably need to attack in the winter, because during a summer offensive they'd be limited to roads and their tanks and other vehicles could not be driven across the soggy rice paddies throughout the western half of the peninsula.
It is only proper to assume that the DPRK could only, at best, contest the American and ROK forces for control of the air and could never achieve outright air superiority, even in only local theatres. The DPRK still uses MiG 21s as frontline fighters, and it's only reasonable to assume that even with generous Chinese support (MiG 29s, as well as homegrown fighters) they'd still rely on it for the bulk of their air capability.
Finally, the DPRK would only likely attack if there were some kind of turmoil in the ROK, possibly unrest, an attempted coup, or an economic depression. It's only logical; it makes much more sense to attack an enemy while they're sick, rather than while they're healthy.
So, given, the current situation, the DPRK could win a war against the ROK and USA, but it would have to be a lightning war over in a month or so, otherwise they'd lose as the USA mobilizes to meet the threat.
Thoughts?
Firstly, I make the assumption that the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (henceforth referred to as the DPRK) is not capable of winning even a brief war on its own because it lacks the necessary resources to do so. There's no question that the economic plight and hardships the DPRK have had to endure over the past 15 years or so have left them incapable of substantial unilateral military action, particularly against anyone backed by the United States of America, despite massive numerical superiority.
Therefore, any DPRK war effort would depend on foreign logistics and supplies to win the day, but luckily such supplies are very likely. The Chinese have been for years looking to establish themselves as a world power, and more particularly as the Asian leader. There are several very high profile American allies near their borders (Japan, Taiwan, Thailand, not to mention the ROK), and a DPRK victory and successful reunification by force would discredit the Americans as a reliable ally in the region, pushing some countries such as Japan into a more neutral stance, while others such as Thailand and Pakistan would be moved further towards the Chinese military and economic sphere of influence. For such reasons, I believe that Chinese support would eventually amount to everything short of outright intervention, but it would start out quiet. It would only become high profile as the Chinese scented real success developing in a DPRK offensive or counteroffensive (depending on who was the agressor). At that point it would comprise of everything we saw from the Soviets in the first Korean War, up to and including sending "volunteers" out to do fighting for the DPRK. This support would have to begin long before any actual offensive action on the part of the communists were to take place, as the DPRK does not have stockpiles of the material needed to launch such a war to begin with.
Russian support would be a lot less likely. Although the Russians are just as eager to reassert the power that the Soviets held over much of the world, they'd stand to gain a lot less than the Chinese would.
In order to win, the DPRK would probably also need to launch a suprise offensive across the DMZ as they'd stand less chance of winning a defensive war. They'd need to maintain the initiative at every turn, because the ROK possesses massive reserve forces (numbering 3.1 million) that dwarf even the DPRK forces. They'd have to not allow any time for the ROK to mobilize these reserves. They'd probably need to attack in the winter, because during a summer offensive they'd be limited to roads and their tanks and other vehicles could not be driven across the soggy rice paddies throughout the western half of the peninsula.
It is only proper to assume that the DPRK could only, at best, contest the American and ROK forces for control of the air and could never achieve outright air superiority, even in only local theatres. The DPRK still uses MiG 21s as frontline fighters, and it's only reasonable to assume that even with generous Chinese support (MiG 29s, as well as homegrown fighters) they'd still rely on it for the bulk of their air capability.
Finally, the DPRK would only likely attack if there were some kind of turmoil in the ROK, possibly unrest, an attempted coup, or an economic depression. It's only logical; it makes much more sense to attack an enemy while they're sick, rather than while they're healthy.
So, given, the current situation, the DPRK could win a war against the ROK and USA, but it would have to be a lightning war over in a month or so, otherwise they'd lose as the USA mobilizes to meet the threat.
Thoughts?
The western half of the Korean peninsula isn't very mountainous. It's the eastern half that is, and DPRK attacks along that part of Korea would just be holding attacks to tie down American and ROK troops.
