Iraq: Medhi army takes a break to reorganize...

[Che Guava]

..and US soldiers breathe a little easier..for now...

US welcomes Iraq militia 'freeze'

The US military says it is encouraged by a radical Iraqi cleric's order that his Mehdi army militia should freeze operations for six months.

If the freeze holds, coalition forces will be freer to tackle al-Qaeda in Iraq, US commanders say.

A US statement issued three days after the surprise move by cleric Moqtada al-Sadr said it could mean fewer kidnappings, killings and attacks.

Mr Sadr's Mehdi Army has become a major force in Baghdad and the south.

It is accused of sectarian attacks and in April the Pentagon called it the biggest threat to peace in Iraq.

However, the militia has given conflicting signals on whether US military forces would be covered by the freeze.

A US spokeswoman told the BBC that such contradictory signals were unfortunate and worked towards unravelling the prospect of progress.

But hours before the US statement, at least three Mehdi Army supporters were taken from their homes in a raid by US forces in the Shia stronghold of Sadr City.

A militia official said the three were not members of the group, and he believed the Americans had carried out the raid to provoke the Mehdi Army and see how they reacted.

In other developments:

*UK general Sir Mike Jackson, the head of the British army during the Iraq invasion, has said US post-war policy was "intellectually bankrupt"

*violence killed 1,773 civilians in August - up 7% on July, according to Iraq government data

'Increasingly fragmented'

On Wednesday, Moqtada al-Sadr ordered the Mehdi Army to halt its activities for up to six months in order to reorganise it.

He also ordered it to co-operate with Iraqi government forces and exercise "self-control".

The militia - which has about 60,000 members according to an Iraq Survey Group report in December 2006 - has split in recent months into increasingly autonomous factions.

The US says some are trained and armed by Iran.

"Moqtada al-Sadr's declaration holds the potential to reduce criminal activity and help reunite Iraqis separated by ethno-sectarian violence and fear," the US statement said.

"If implemented, Sadr's order holds the prospect of allowing coalition and Iraqi security forces to intensify their focus on al-Qaeda-Iraq and on protecting the Iraqi population," the statement said.

The BBC's Mike Wooldridge in Baghdad says the Americans will clearly not be lowering their guard against the militia and are, in a sense, challenging Moqtada al-Sadr to show that he can control his increasingly fragmented forces.

The Mehdi Army was created in 2003 to protect the Shia religious authorities in the holy city of Najaf.

It has also been linked to many sectarian attacks on Iraq's Sunni Arabs and has frequently clashed with rival Shia militia.

Spoiler :

MEHDI ARMY

*Founded in the summer of 2003, its membership is now estimated at 60,000

*The group takes its name from the Mehdi - a messianic figure in the Shia tradition

*The US says Iran has trained, supplied and financed the group

*The militia is accused of infiltrating the Iraqi security forces and has been blamed for attacks on Sunni Muslims

link

Another article on the Iraqi gov't's reaction

So how do you interpret this development in the bigger picture? Is it a sign that the iraqi resistance is starting to fracture and erode? Is it indicative of greater Iraqi unity against american troops? A move by Sadr to strengthen the Shia-led government while freeing the US army to defeat his rival Sunni militias?

Or just a lot of hot air?

 

[silver 2039]

I think Al-Sadar is trying to consolidate his hold over the militas. It makes sense since he has been loosing his grip on them somewhat so the logical thing would be to make sure everyone know's he still in charge and the only way he can consolidate is if he's not involved in constant clashes with his enemies.

I don't think the resistance is decreasing or eroding, merely Al-Sadar's militia is turning more into a terrorist group like Al-Quida (in their structure I mean small autonomous units operating independently.) than it is a militia.

 

[Che Guava]

I still think that no matter why he chose to freeze operations, the idea that sunni militias and islamic cells would be getting the full attention of the US army had to enter his mind at some point. The enemy of my enemy and so forth

 

[Elrohir]

I think Sadr is playing it smart by playing both sides against each other. He sees a lot more American troops in Iraq, and an increasing amount of battle ready Iraqi troops cracking down on the insurgency. This wouldn't be too much of a problem for him, if his own organization wasn't falling apart. As it is, he's struggling to control his "army".

So he's called a ceasefire so that he can hopefully (Well, he hopes it, anyway) re seize control of his army and regroup. In six months, he'll probably reevaluate his course of action based upon how things are looking. If the Sunni/Al Qaeda insurgency and the other Shia insurgencies have been utterly crushed, expect him to make some public statement about how glad he is that peace has been restored to Iraq and how he'll now take part in the democratic system and so on and so forth. If Al Qaeda in Iraq gets destroyed, then the American people are going to put up with US troops in Iraq even longer, because they're hungry for any sort of victory - meaning that if Sadr tries to pick a fight after Al Qaeda gets crushed, he'd lose, because he'd be all alone. He isn't stupid, so he won't do that - if Sadr is the only large resistence group left, and only other small, local Sunni and Shia militias are causing trouble in six months, he'll play ball, because otherwise he'll lose his power base and he'll be lucky if he can escape to Iran before a JDAM gets dropped on his head.

BUT - if the surge doesn't go as hoped, and in six months time things aren't looking any better for American troops and the Iraqi government than they are today, then expect to see Sadr enter the fray again. If he has a realistic chance of toppling the Iraqi government and setting up a Shia controlled government in its place (Back by Iran, and with Sadr in control, of course) then he'll go for it, even if that means fighting Americans side by side with Sunni's.

So realistically, what happens in the next six months will decide whether the Mehdi army enters the fray again, or not. That's my analysis of the situation, anyway.

 

[Che Guava]

Elrohir: couldn't have said it better myself. This is Machiavellin' at its best. One thing I had to laugh a little at though:

So realistically, what happens in the next six months will decide whether the Mehdi army enters the fray again, or not. That's my analysis of the situation, anyway.

Only one more Friedman unit to go!

 

[Elrohir]

Elrohir: couldn't have said it better myself. This is Machiavellin' at its best. One thing I had to laugh a little at though:

Yep. Realistically, the world of Sadr and Bin Laden has more in common with the world of Machiavelli's time than our own - the sooner we realize that, the sooner we can learn to deal with them effectively. They desire power and control, and in many ways they are fudual lords, of a sort. To beat them, (To use expand the metaphor a bit) we need to make sure they know that if they challenge the king, we'll take their land, destroy their army and seize their inheritances and kill them - but if they swear fealty, they won't be destroyed, but they can only march where the king points. (In this case, the king is the democratic Iraqi government, not one individual)

Only one more Friedman unit to go!

Just one more!

In all seriousness, though, the next couple of months are going to be very interesting and incredibly important in shaping the future.

 

[Ecofarm]

Sounds like a (temporary) surrender to me. The troop surge is working.

 

[Amin001]

"Sounds like a (temporary) surrender to me. The troop surge is working."

Not sure if the majority of Americans agree with that. "cough cough"

"They desire power and control"

Governments and men throughout history crave this, thats commonsense.

It is too bad we have supported many of these "bad guys" throughout the years and I dont think we would be having many of the problems we are currently having if we had made better decisions.

Just think about it, do the majority of the Iraqis or the Arab world really support what we are doing over there or look at us in a good light?

Is this really for the security of our nation?

 

[Tannertu]

MEHDI ARMY

*Founded in the summer of 2003, its membership is now estimated at 60,000

*The group takes its name from the Mehdi - a messianic figure in the Shia tradition

*The US says Iran has trained, supplied and financed the group

*The militia is accused of infiltrating the Iraqi security forces and has been blamed for attacks on Sunni Muslims

LOL Instant understanding straight from the armchair McFox school of intelligence. Still creatively creating reality.

 

[Che Guava]

LOL Instant understanding straight from the armchair McFox school of intelligence. Still creatively creating reality.

Not sure I get you here. I go the info from the BBC article, and I don't see anything here particularly 'creating reality'....