Despite few errors and white washing history this is pretty accurate.
IS and the Middle East 2020 - your prediction
- Thread starter Loppan Torkel
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Despite few errors and white washing history this is pretty accurate.
Yes, this thread deserves a countdown
January 1st, 2020 go!
[TIMER=01/1/2020 12:00 AM PST]Timer[/TIMER]
For bonus points I will make the bold prediction that by 2020 we see either a de facto or de jure country of Kurdistan roughly forged out of the geographical borders of the cultural Kurdish majorities in Iraq and Syria. This new political situation arises from positive international attention drawn to Kurds thanks to their efforts against ISIS and their unique political cohesiveness in an area otherwise bereft of any unified or organized political action. They become the darlings of western governments desperate for organized allies in the region with grassroots capabilities. Turkey and Iran maintain their territorial integrity in that regard but Kurdish populations in both countries support the move (to the extent they can).
Natan35
Mayor of St. Natansburg
Same conflicts, ISIS Destroyed
Kurds will get themselvs well deserved kurdistan.
Kurds will get themselvs well deserved kurdistan.
In 2020, Kurdistan may become an unrecognized state, forging out of the collapsed Syrian and Iraqi lands. As for ISIS, I have no clue. If Turkey brings troops to Syria, then I think ISIS will be destroyed, before or after 2020 (though there'll always be insurgencies).
Berzerker
Deity
I'm more of a casual observer and by no means an expert, but isn't this ISIS/ISIL just the sunni response to shiite control in Iraq?
Its a continuation of the civil war they've been fighting ever since Muhammed's 2 sons branched off.
Oh yeah, 2020 - the shiites will gain back some ground and slow ISIS and the border between the two will be roughly where it was before this most recent advance - sunni to the NW and shiite to the SE. ISIS may be under another name or alliance but the sunnis will have a force there nonetheless.
Its a continuation of the civil war they've been fighting ever since Muhammed's 2 sons branched off.
Oh yeah, 2020 - the shiites will gain back some ground and slow ISIS and the border between the two will be roughly where it was before this most recent advance - sunni to the NW and shiite to the SE. ISIS may be under another name or alliance but the sunnis will have a force there nonetheless.
warpus
In pork I trust
I'm an optimist, so in my opinion by 2020 everyone in the middle east is going to be eating bacon, drinking beer, and there will be no more suicide bombers. Non stop dancing will take place in the streets involving Jews, Muslims, Christians, and Atheists, and in 2024 a female pope is going to meet with a reincarnated gay Buddha and top Muslim scholars at the black stone in Mecca, where they will outline their plans to colonize the outer solar system. Oil is also going to become worthless as incredibly massive deposits are found 1 metre under the ground in Poland at a time when solar power already reigns supreme.
gay_Aleks
from the river to the sea, Palestine will be free!
And then the Westboro Baptist Church choir will be singing Kumbaya.
brennan
Argumentative Brit
There'll probably be 'boots on the ground' by then. Possibly a rash of small scale terrorist attacks in Western nations, all accompanied by careful and clear explanations of why the attackers feel aggrieved and why they feel they have to resort to such actions - none of which will stop the media from asking 'why do they hate us? Is it because we're free?' 
gay_Aleks
from the river to the sea, Palestine will be free!
I demand my backyard to be an independent country from the current oppresive regime.
James Stuart
King
This. Who would ever have predicted that, even five years ago? Lebanon was basically the Somalia of the Middle East for a while there, and now it is in the process of continuous growth and improvement. It's political parties are still poison (Hezbollah is the most obvious example to Westerners) but that's not exactly unusual in the Middle East. Sadly, it's becoming more common in the West as well.
As for a prediction; I think ISIL will still exist, but it will no longer control any territory. I expect the US to have "boots on the ground" by then, either under Obama by 2016, or a more adventurous President afterwards (probably Hillary Clinton, though that could easily change). ISIL will be just another insurgency at that point. I think the US will be forced, by the worsening situation, to finally form a rapprochement with Iran, which will then exercise its influence over Iraq.
Assad probably holds on in Syria, and conducts free(ish) elections, though there will be large parts of the state outside of his effective control. There will exist a de facto Kurdish state in Iraq and Syria, but it will have no official recognition. Russian influence in the Middle East will be shattered by the US-Iran rapprochement, which incidentally warms relations between the US and Assad's regime. Assad will reach an equitable deal with Israel regarding the Golan Heights; this will gain him some unofficial Israeli support in clearing out the crazies in Syria.
Saudi Arabia will make many angry faces at the US over the new warmth with Iran, but without any other serious contenders for a backer, it will continue to suckle at the American teat. China will indicate a willingness to support the Saudis, but won't be in a position to back up their offers with anything concrete. They will increase their economic partnerships with the Saudis though, and they will also express an interest in naval bases in the Middle East and East Africa.
Turkey will continue to suffer from internal instability, which will only worsen with the new Kurdish pseudo-state to the south. Israel will still be Israel. Not much will change in Jordan. Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar and the UAE will lean even more strongly towards the US out of fear of Iran. Qatar will still be angry at FIFA over stripping it of the World Cup. FIFA, meanwhile, will suffer a huge clean-out of corrupt officials, replacing them with younger, less-noticeably corrupt officials.
gay_Aleks
from the river to the sea, Palestine will be free!
Lebanon 2016 will be the new program for ISIS.
James Stuart
King
I don't see ISIL gaining much traction there, to be honest. Hezbollah has the militant Shia extremist market all sewn up there, and won't tolerate a Sunni pretender to the throne.
Tahuti
Writing Deity
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There probably enough disgruntled Sunni's in Lebanon for ISIS to take advantage of, should they ever come that far.
James Stuart
King
I'm sure it's on their to-do list, I just don't see them fairing too well if they try to step on Hezbollah's territory. All they'll do will be force Hezbollah, the Lebanese government, and Israel to cooperate, however briefly. Granted, that's a great accomplishment, but I doubt it's one ISIL actually wants.
gay_Aleks
from the river to the sea, Palestine will be free!
Well, it seems we'll see a turf war if they ever do that. It's like a gang war, 'cept they have rocket launchers and religious fanaticism.
Tahuti
Writing Deity
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Actually, it is exactly what IS wants. So far, despite they have managed to unite the world speaking out against them, "speaking" is pretty key here. No signs of failing at the moment, nor any fatal weaknesses I know of. So by uniting the world against them, they can claim that every enemy is somehow allied with each other - which is arguably true - which provides to them a steady stream of recruits.
By being hostile to every government, they can garner the support of Sunni terrorists groups in/against these countries. They'll get Palestinian volunteers for being hostile to Israel, Moroccan-European volunteers for being hostile to the EU, Chechen volunteers for being hostile to Russia and the list goes on. So far, they can count more on the support Sunni Islamic groups from outside than they have to count on the reciprociation of hostility by the countries they came from.
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