Yeah probably, no reason other than I trust my gut which has been right about humankind, millennia and ara history untold while everyone was thinking they can even compete with civ.
The "hardcore" gamer is no longer the target audience of civ for a long time, since civ 4. Those gamers have mostly move on to paradox games, and if you want depth especially in immersion and role playing then you should too, it's good for mental health rather than hoping for civ to become that game. Don't let the learning curve discourage you, as all their games are quite easy after a while. Due to the very specific fan base of paradox games, the harder and deeper the game, the more popular it gets, and their future games seem to be going that way aka EU5. And the time when they try to casualized a game for Example victoria 3 war system, they face community backlash. So I would say pdx games have a built in resistance to casualization, although there are still demands for it from newer players who recently enter the field from other simpler games. Of course paradox is not a perfect company without faults as there are many if you follow the news. There are also better mod support for pdx games than any other similar in the genre so you get mods ranging from balance mods to total conversion like star trek. The only downside is the constant updates breaking mods.
Humankind, Ara history untold and millennia "fail" because they are trying to copy civ, instead they should copy paradox games to fill the obvious market gap of a deep pdx style historical 4x game. Currently no games does that other than old world, but old world has limited scope.
These are all just my 2 cents.
Edit: There was a quote from a civ 4 dev which I can't remember verbatim, but he/she said something along the lines of - their problem with civ 4 was that it was too much of an empire builder and too less of a game. That alone summarize the philosophy of firaxis games.