DaviddesJ said:
You may know more than I do about many things, but you don't know more than I do about how I discovered RCP. It pretty much is just that: I picked up the game, I played a couple of times and followed the GOTM discussions; one day, I got interested in how corruption depended on distance, and the observation regarding cities at equal distance followed. And some longtime players were at first skeptical that it would be useful/significant, because it wasn't part of how they thought about the game.
My appologies. I was thinking of Qitai and the effect of the FP on OCN. I get those two discoveries mixed up.
As it relates to the other issue... Would you believe that over a year before you figured out what was happening with RCP, I had noticed in testing that the OCN wasn't updating with cities in the same distance rings? I was doing some little studies on distance corruption, OCN corruption, the impact of the Commercial trait and Difficulty. After noticing that placing 2 cities on the same distance cause variation from expected in the results, and being focused on other issues, I specifically redesigned the scenario I was working from to eliminate the shared OCN aspect. After alexman posted his study I just dropped the whole line of thought altogether and so never got around to thinking about the possibilites with shared OCN.
At that time, I would have been considered "fresh insight" too, and definitely failed to see the implications of the shared OCN issue. Perhaps if I had been more familiar with the limitations of corruption in general, instead of such a newbie to gameplay with only other newbie's experiences to observe, I would have thought it an important factor to be focused on, rather than a rogue one to be eliminated from the focused testing.
Later, when you posted your analysis of RCP, I had one of those major "Doh!" moments while just reading the title of your thread. It was rather obviously a huge factor, but one I had discarded as insignificant and forgotten before understanding it's potential. It's quite embarrassing actually.
I mention this as an insight into how just being fresh to a situation really doesn't make any guarantees either, even when noticing something fishy. Sometimes things click (as it did when reading the title of your thread for me), sometimes they don't (as when faced with the actual results had earlier for me), and it happens across the entire spectrum of experience.
Had you read any of the corruption analysis or related testing that had been done in the years previous or were you working off complete "newbie" status to come to your conclusions? You obviously credit Alexman's thread with some of your understanding and say it's central to understanding rings. How much of it was based off of that? If I recall you started playing the GOTM at a very high level, did you take much insight from the other player's approaches to the game before playing? Basically what I'm after is how much of RCP was a flash of insight, and how much was studying already available knowlege to get a base of understanding about corruption and how it impacts gameplay?
So I do think that it's more likely that people new to the game can have fresh insights about it, and think of different things that may be important.
In any case, I have already said that type of insight does happen. About the other possibilities I see you are still being quiet. Do you admit that while there are things that can jump out to a new perspective, there are also things which take time and study to uncover, things which may jump out at various times even to veteran players, things which become clear after a lot of repetition, things which become clear only after the underlying foundation of knowlege has been adequetly fixed, and things which are mainly uncovered due to chance?
I can't give examples from the playsession due to the NDA, but I can tell you something that happened publicly since release. I played AU100, which was a WBS scenario released over at Apolyton. My first time through I noticed something dealing with scenarios that I hadn't before. For one, the Deity AI wasn't starting with it's bonus units. This was the first time I had really played a game from a WBS that wasn't a full fledged scenario. So I noticed a flaw in the game right? The WBS isn't allowing the AI bonus units. One of those flashes of the obvious. But one that ended up being incorrect in it's conclusion. It turns out the WBS allows for AI to have their bonus units when designed a different way. While I understood the game better, the flaw I had jump out at me wasn't a flaw at all.
Given that the game had lost some of it's luster due to being "Deity lite", and that the course I had started out with was along the lines of almost all the other games being played, I decided to play again with a different focus. I still had my exploration movement logged to recreate the start, so started with that. It ended up not working the same at all due to a difference in RNG state. This conflicted with something I remembered from previous work I had done with WBS (the GOTM saves were part of that, though they probably suffer from my not understanding what was going on with the RNG state at that time), so I tried loading the game a few more times to see what was going on. What I got was "random" results all but one time, that one matching up perfectly with the first game. I found that rather odd, thinking 2 exact results dealing with 3 huts (including the amount of gold) across 5 tests would be rather unlikely. In analysing exactly what had happened, I determined that going into "Custom Game", then backing out and going to "Load a Scenario" was setting the RNG state the same every time, while going straight to "Load a Scenario" wasn't. I had accidently clicked that way the time of the "non-random" result, and in trying it again the same way, kept getting the same result.
Turns out that was the reason why so many similar "random" maps were being reported. (I can't say whether the issue was known in the playsession or not, so don't ask.) While many people had noticed this obvious phenomenon (though in a totally different way), the cause wasn't obvious. The first time I experienced it though, the cause jumped out and bit me because of previous experience. So just being experienced with the game doesn't preclude new insights, and can even promote them.
For every example you come up with of a flash of insight, I can come up with one where the flash of insight was wrong, or where study uncovered it's own issue (right or wrong). (That is not to say they are all equal factors, just that the examples will be so numerous it would take longer than feasible just to touch on a tiny fraction of them.)
That is why I disagree with how you have presented your argument. You say "more likely" which makes for an impossible proof without first having a vast study to support it. All you needed to say was that new players will have flashes of insights that the playtesters didn't, which is almost certainly true. Or better yet, that every player will have their own insights when first playing the game regardless of whether they are a playtester or not, and whether those insights preclude or lead to later insights is not something a flash of insight is going to adequetly address without the proper study to back it up.
Now, chopping down forests to build early settlers and workers (or, perhaps, rush military units) is a rather more obvious strategy than placing cities in rings, and it's hard to believe that the former wasn't thoroughly investigated by some Civ IV playtesters. It seems to me that there must have been some playtesters who thought it was a dominant strategy, just as there are some new players now who think so. But you haven't really said anything about that, so I'm only guessing.
Your current guess is far supperior to the prediction in your previous post. Not necessarily in it's accuracy (which I can't specify due to the NDA), but in it's qualification at least.
P.S. You haven't said whether the strategy of switching back and forth between settler and military/building production, so that the city continues to grow even while the shields from forest chops count toward a settler, was well understoond and thoroughly explored, by you or others, during playtesting. It seems fairly obvious to me, but, sometimes things that are "obvious" in hindsight can also be missed (like RCP).
It seems obvious to me that in a situation where I can't state if that subject was obvious or not to me and other playtesters, that trying to make that a subject of debate is pointless.
I can tell you that at this point in time I don't see an imbalance between "swap and chop" and regular chopping. I think that pure chopping is generally a better option, but that swap and chop does have uses too. (ie. Exactly the content of my first post in this thread.)
I also don't see how your theory about the playtesters even applies in this case, as it is dealing (correctly or incorrectly) with an issue becoming obvious (as in it's existance, not it's nature), not with the analysis of an issue once it has been made so. Regardless of whether a playtester thought of this or not, it is now out in the open for everyone to analyse.
If you are instead trying to suggest that the playtesters would be biased against things they "missed" (which to be fair, everyone else is missing too except the original poster of the idea), then at least it would be an applicable argument. Plus I could then direct you to the proper thread where that discussion has already taken place.