I’ve done some voting analysis of players remaining for the key Triumvirate voting days. Below is a spreadsheet for the interesting days (5, 7, 11, and 13) and my examination of each player over the course of those days. I’ll start from the top of the player list. First: the spreadsheets, with the player voting in the first column, who they voted for in the second column, the post number the vote was cast, and the subsequent columns for a running tally as each vote was placed:
Day Five:
Day Seven:
Day Eleven:
Day Thirteen:
Now, the player analysis:
Mechaerik:
Day Five:
By the time he votes NinjaCow64 on day five, Spaceman has a sizeable lead (five votes) over anyone else and he quasy defends him (along with Southern King as well) stating it was more of a mix-up than anything else and that the case wasn’t great.
Day Seven:
Votes Southern King fourth overall on the ‘let’s pressure the guys in the back’ logic. I notice a fairly significant block late in the voting period, with SamSniped switching off of his second vote against Southern/jht to Dumanios, with spaceman and southern/jht either already voting against Dumanios or about to vote Dumanios. If mech was hell-bent on saving his hypothetical teammate in spaceman, we should have seen his vote cast against Dumanios here, not Southern/jht.
Day Eleven:
Not much here, other than casting the first vote against DaveShack and leaving it there.
Day Thirteen:
Another interesting day. Votes Southern/jht as vote five while SamSniped leads at seven with no reasoning behind the vote. Very hard to say what he was doing here – was he attempting to save SamSniped, or did he buy the roleblock logic? Based on Day Seven, I’m saying he leaned toward the roleblock case.
Final thoughts: Tough case, but I’m leaning not Triumvirate. Day’s 5 and 13 could point to pro-Triumvirate while 7 and 11 lean the other way.
Buddhafish:
Day Five:
There’s nothing too crazy here. He votes TBK to put him in a tie with Spaceman at five votes apiece (before TBK’s reveal), and would later accuse Verarde before his reveal.
Day Seven:
Votes Spaceman, bring his vote tally to five while Dumanios sits at 6. Definitely not pro-Triumvirate behavior.
Day Eleven: Third to vote against SamSniped.
Day Thirteen: Second on SamSniped again.
Final Thoughts: Between his roleclaim and voting record, I’ll eat my hat if he’s Triumvirate.
SouthernKing/johnhughthom
Day Five:
Votes NinjaCow64 first due to being ‘overzealous in hunting’ and left the vote there all phase while spaceman sat at five votes. Mechaerik and Red Spy would follow suit after. Usually if a teammate is in trouble and you’re trying to start a counterwagon, you’d pick someone with more votes or with a better case at the time (see: TBK who Spaceman has already accused). Unless S/K and Mech are on the same team here (later voting would suggest they aren’t), this move is curious if it’s a defend spaceman’s life tactic. However, the third vote by Red Spy does make this look odd though.
Day Seven:
Votes Dumanios, bringing his tally to six while Spaceman sits at four. Move looks like he could be trying to save Spaceman here, but I’m skeptical. Dumanios did look fairly scummy at this point in the game.
Day Eleven:
Votes SamSniped here, bringing his total to six while DaveShack sits at two. This is tricky because of Sam’s double voting power. If we work under the assumption they’re the same team, you would expect Southern/jht to vote in a way to get the vote close so that the additional vote strength can actually do something. On the other, since jht replaced S/K at this point, it’s possible he didn’t even know of Sam’s double-vote ability and was doing the classic ‘bus the teammate that looks like he’s about to get lynched’ move. The idea to tie was also made after this vote was cast so I don’t 100% agree with the notion this was an obvious time to safely bus. It’s only safe for the triumvirates if the vote is close.
Day Thirteen:
Bandwagon tack-on vote to SamSniped. Of course, the other option was himself.
Final Thought: Possible Triumvirate, but not nearly a slam-dunk case though.
Dreadnought
Day Five:
A lot of voting, though none of it particularly pro-triumvirate. Votes spaceman third to put him in the lead, would later unvote, then accuse Dumanios and add a tack-on vote to Red_Spy late.
Day Seven:
Breaks a four-four tie between Dumanios and spaceman with a vote against Dumanios. His reasoning and voting fit in-line with day five.
Day Eleven:
Voted DaveShack before it was decided to tie the vote between him and SamSniped. His vote made the tally 6 – 7 in favor of SamSniped.
Day Thirteen:
Votes SamSniped here making the tally 8 – 5 in favor of SamSniped. A vote against Southern/jht would have only made it a one point spread, so unless he had already given up all hope on SamSniped I could have possibly seen a vote cast against Southern/jht to attempt to save Sam if they were the same team.
Final Thought: Probably not Triumvirate.
BSmith1068
Day Five:
First, he tied Buddhafish with Spaceman at 3 each. Then, would accuse TBK third, though once TBK role-revealed he was second onto Red_Spy and encouraged others to accuse him. Would later flip against Verarde as the seventh vote then finally re-accuse Red_Spy second overall.
Day Seven:
Voted third against spaceman, and would at the end switch off of spaceman and onto Southern/jht to tie him with Dumanios.
Day Eleven:
Broke a 7 all tie between DaveShack and SamSniped with a vote on Dave.
Day Thirteen:
Tack-on vote to Sam Sniped, pushing his tally to nine.
Final Thought: More than likely not triumvirate. However, the roleblock results haven’t exactly been cut-and-dry, with Gone 3 Celt’s neutrality and the roleblock claim of jht while choxorn died.
Verarde
Day Five:
Voted Spaceman fifth overall.
Day Seven:
Voted Spaceman fourth overall and tied him with Dumanios at the time of the vote.
Day Eleven:
Tied SamSniped with DaveShack at 8.
Day Thirteen:
Voted first on Sam Sniped.
Final Thoughts: Between votes and undisputed roleclaim, he’s not triumvirate.
Darth Caesar/Beefy
Day Five:
Nothing
Day Seven:
Nothing
Day Eleven:
Seventh on SamSniped. Had opportunity here to accuse DaveShack instead and didn’t take it.
Day Thirteen:
Cast last vote on SamSniped. Possible bus move, but it probably wasn’t one based on day eleven and how he didn’t accuse DaveShack instead.
Final Thought: Not much to go on, but looks okay for right now.
Topsecret
Day Five:
Second on Spaceman, though would later retract and accuse Nedim.
Day Seven:
Voted fourth against Nedim, tying him with Dumanios while Spaceman was at two.
Day Eleven:
Tied DaveShack with SamSniped at 7 votes each.
Day Thirteen:
Accused Southern/jht fourth in the second bandwagon.
Final Thought: While he’s claimed bounty hunter (and a not-so-good-one at that), it could be said he’s done some moves that could have aided the triumvirates.
Dcmort93
Day Five:
Fourth on spaceman, putting him in the lead at the time and stayed all phase.
Day Seven:
One early vote against Nedim, which again, stayed all phase.
Day Eleven:
Nothing, though wanted to see the case on SamSniped despite evidence to his scumminess being all over the thread.
Day Thirteen:
Nothing.
Final Thought: Only positive here is his vote against Spaceman on day five. Other than that, there’s not a ton to go on. His inactivity coupled with a lack of night kills lately may be linked. Needs to be looked into further.
Double A
Day Five:
Nothing.
Day Seven:
Additional vote onto Dumanios, putting him at six votes with spaceman at eight. This coincides with the end-of-phase Dumanios votes of spaceman and SamSniped, which could have been an attempt to save spaceman.
Day Eleven:
Last minute accusation of DaveShack to put him in the lead over SamSniped. Agreed with Mergle on this front, this looks like an attempt to save SamSniped.
Day Thirteen:
Voted SamSniped, though with four votes already against him to zero it was fairly clear-cut by this point.
Final Thoughts: Good bet for triumvirate.
Jarrema
Day Five:
Dead
Day Seven:
Early vote against Nedim, then a later switch against Southern/jht. Nothing really stands out today with the timings.
Day Eleven:
Fifth on SamSniped, while DaveShack has two.
Day Thirteen:
Sixth on SamSniped while Mergle has one placeholder vote against him.
Final Thought: Despite being revived (which isn’t exactly light-side canon), he seems okay with his votes on Sam.
Mergle
Day Five:
Voted Verarde, then voted Red_Spy third once Verarde claimed.
Day Seven:
Third to accuse Nedim, then would later be the deciding vote against spaceman making his tally at nine before Bsmith retracted.
Day Eleven:
Voted DaveShack and got the ball rolling against him, leading to the eventual tie.
Day Thirteen:
Voted seventh against SamSniped.
Final Thought: Between contributions to the townie network and voting record, Mergle looks cleared of being triumvirate.
The Black Knigh
Day Five:
Early vote and retraction on Mergle, while later casting the fifth vote against Red_Spy.
Day Seven:
Cast the sixth vote against spaceman, which tied him with Dumanios at the time.
Day Eleven:
Accused DaveShack third overall.
Day Thirteen:
Second against Southern/jht while the SamSniped wagon had seven votes.
Final Thought: Looks pretty good to me, despite the resurrection that isn’t exactly light-side material. I’d still like some more info on how this worked.
Xenoneb
Day Five:
Accused Mergle early, then would later be the eight vote against Verarde.
Day Seven:
Second against spaceman and was not removed for the phase.
Day Eleven:
Accused Verarde, likely to preserve the tie between DaveShack and SamSniped.
Day Thirteen:
A placeholder vote against Mergle, which was later switched to being third on the Southern/jht wagon.
Final Thought: Looks fairly clean to me, with the vote against spaceman that stayed plus while also preserving the tie between DaveShack and SamSniped. It could be argued he had to do both moves to save face – pulling on spaceman after the wagon got large would have been a red flag, and deliberately untying the vote between the other two would have thrown up some red-flags (see: Double A). For right now, I’ll give the benefit of the doubt to him.
Winston Hughes
A whole bunch of abstains. Not worth going into based on his role.
I didn’t do myself since I don’t feel I need to.
Lastly, I'm going to
vote: Double A based on my analysis. DCmort93 and Southern/jht would be my next two follow-ups.
oubleA. I want some discussion here, not just a landslide.
