Except it's not just random persons. The fella is going to key on people that look queer, and that's not random.
maybe it isn't, maybe it is. depends on the person, and what their criteria is to identify "queer" as they define it.
but if we take as given the effect is in play, that this person's assertion isn't accurate, then it can't hold that people who are lgbt are in more danger than random people. the added danger to being lgbt from this particular person is *contingent* on how accurate his assessment of his ability to identify is. if he harms/discriminates against people while in reality being barely capable of differentiating, the damage he causes is not very specific regardless of rationale.
I really hope so because I consider myself more observant than most
if that isn't also dunning kruger, then you're indeed better at it. i do not have specific properties whereby i could observe someone and conclude "that person is definitely or very likely trans", in the way i could observe someone and conclude "that person is wearing jeans" or "that person has blue eyes". that's not a thing i can do, and i estimate most other people can't do it either.
Well, being observant with other people, including random strangers, is absolutely a skill that can be developed.
true, depends what you are trying to observe too. there are things about people that i will notice immediately, but none that i would consider relevant to this discussion. i am sometimes surprised how unaware others are of their surroundings. i observe that frequently enough that i'm probably far above average in time to acknowledge detail of "there is a person there making some kind of noise". but details of the person beyond that? far, far less so, to the point of being below average. i don't care/haven't developed the skill, and at least some other people do develop it, so must be below average.
The other three letters, it's obviously more difficult "walking down the street", but sometimes circumstances give it away if the person is 'out'.
i suppose so. it gets hard to pin down discrimination as you get more nuanced, though. someone might think a person dislikes them because they're gay, when really that person dislikes them because they got credit the other person felt they deserved, or because they have strongly different opinions about how their company should run as coworkers etc. or worse, all 3, with no means to separate how much "dislike" comes from any one of them as a %.