Litvinenko 'probably murdered on personal orders of Putin

[Silurian]

How will this report affect relations between the UK and Russia.

From Guardian

Litvinenko, who died from radioactive poisoning in a London hospital in November 2006, was killed by two Russian agents, Andrei Lugovoi and Dmitry Kovtun, the inquiry report said. There was a “strong probability” they were acting on behalf of the Russian FSB secret service, the report added.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/20...probably-murdered-on-personal-orders-of-putin

 

[Cutlass]

I'm pretty sure we were all confident this was true for years now.

 

[red_elk]

I wonder if it's common practice in British judicial system, to make conclusions in probabilistic terms.

 

[Silurian]

Balance of probability is used in civil courts.

 

[Bootstoots]

Conclusions about most things can only be made in probabilistic terms. It's used by necessity in all courts, and obviously also in journalism. And science, of course.

 

[FriendlyFire]

I wonder if it's common practice in British judicial system, to make conclusions in probabilistic terms.

I wonder if its common for Russians to assume somehow this couldn't possibly be Russian fault, that it is far more likely the work of the CIA or maybe Fascist to make Russia look bad.

 

[Bootstoots]

Incidentally, is anyone interested in buying enough polonium to kill several spies-turned-dissidents? Only $216. Comes with 5 mCi, or about 10 lethal doses. Packaged safely with the polonium under gold leaf, apparently. But if that's true, some aqua regia ought to liberate it for any would-be poisoners.

 

[red_elk]

Conclusions about most things can only be made in probabilistic terms. It's used by necessity in all courts, and obviously also in journalism. And science, of course.

In criminal justice there is either proven guilt, or lack of it - and in this case suspect should be considered innocent. If they make formal conclusion that there is a "strong probability" that suspect (for example) is guilty in murder and send person to jail basing on it, it's absurd.

And in science, probability usually measured in numbers. "Strong probability" is neither here nor there - it's more suitable for journalism.

 

[Bootstoots]

Well, nobody has been convicted of anything. If the FSB agents who (allegedly) administered the polonium were somehow brought to trial in the UK, they'd be legally considered innocent until and unless proven guilty.

Proof of guilt in a court, though, is still inherently probabilistic. The phrase used in the US is "beyond a reasonable doubt", and I suspect that either that or something similar is used in the UK as well. In practice, based on the exonerations that have occurred, there is a sizable probability of false conviction. Exactly how high is hard to say, but a crude estimate might be ~3-6% or so for a murder case, possibly higher.

 

[Yeekim]

It won't be long now before we find out who was behind Trotsky's murder...

 

[luiz]

I wonder if it's common practice in British judicial system, to make conclusions in probabilistic terms.

The world we live in is probabilistic, so yeah, that's how courts function. Even DNA tests make conclusion on probabilistic terms.

 

[Arwon]

Yeah, it does seem that calling the bloke a pedophile gangster probably gets you on Putin's hit list.

 

[Thorgalaeg]

What i dont get is why to use Polonium? It is dangerous and shows the crime was commited by statal agents with access to nuclear material. Instead use cyanide or arsenic or any other common poison. Or shot him twice in the head.

 

[red_elk]

The world we live in is probabilistic, so yeah

My question was not about probabilistic world, but about probabilistic terminology apparently used in British judicial system. They should either declare person guilty basing on evidence they possess, or this person should be considered innocent.

If they do neither, I suspect there is strong probability that their statement have more to do with politics and diplomacy, rather than criminal investigation.

 

[Thorgalaeg]

So red_elk, may i ask what is your opinion on the subject? Who killed Litvinenko and why?

 

[PhroX]

My question was not about probabilistic world, but about probabilistic terminology apparently used in British judicial system. They should either declare person guilty basing on evidence they possess, or this person should be considered innocent.

If they do neither, I suspect there is strong probability that their statement have more to do with politics and diplomacy, rather than criminal investigation.

This was not a criminal trial. It was a public inquiry. In the former, the aim is to determine the guilt or innocence of the accused party. In the latter, the aim is to establish what the most likely course of events was.

 

[red_elk]

So red_elk, may i ask what is your opinion on the subject? Who killed Litvinenko and why?

I don't know who killed Litvinenko and why, I can only give a few thoughts about the matter.

- The case is politicized and the recent relations between Russia and Britain (in terms of handing over criminal suspects) weren't very constructive. Britain, for example had become popular place for high-ranking Chechen rebels (and oligarchs affiliated with them), to take political asylum. Russia obviously also will not hand over suspects for this case. Conclusion is that there is little reason to trust statements of either side.

- I don't see how the Russian state or government benefit from this murder. On the contrary it suffered reputational and diplomatic losses because of that. Those who could have benefit from it, are either non-state actors (of Russian or another origin), or some third party state special services, whose objectives was to harm British-Russian relations. They also should be influential enough to be able to carry out murder in such extravagant and demonstrative manner. In any case the only way we could get some reliable information about that, would be independent and transparent investigation of crime, which we likely never get.

It won't be long now before we find out who was behind Trotsky's murder...

Only after Kennedy's.

 

[Thorgalaeg]

So or Putin dont care that much about messing international relations by killing people using radioactive stuff in the center of London or a third country (or even the very UK) wants to see Russia international relations badly damaged.

I am going with a probability of 70% for the first version and 30% for the second one, i am more pro-russia than that british judge i guess.

 

[red_elk]

So or Putin dont care that much about messing international relations by killing people using radioactive stuff in the center of London or a third country (or even the very UK) wants to see Russia international relations badly damaged.

I am going with a probability of 70% for the first version and 30% for the second one, i am more pro-russia than that british judge i guess.

Either Putin is a crazy maniac irradiating people in London without any reason whatsoever, or Litvinenko got himself into trouble messing with Russian organized crime and Chechen separatists. The version involving third country special services I found less probable.

 

[Thorgalaeg]

But Russian maffia or Chechens have not Polonio at hand, havent they?. I think things are more caothic than we usually think. Maybe Putin simply ordered "kill that SOB" and some smartass had the idea of using the Polonio they had gathering dust at a stand.