Where does Russias sphere of influence end?

[Winner]

Patroklos, Americans should just stay silent and, about five-ten years into future, prepare to gather pieces of something which was called 'USA'. With pathetic economy as yours and most of European countries, NATO should just disband itself as soon as usual. Europeans can just create their own forces, and it would make much more sense.

Wait, if American and European economy is pathetic, how is the Russian economy? How should I call something what is 20 times worse than pathetic?

If anybody should remain silent, it's Russia. And not just for five or ten years, but for 50 years at least, because that's how long it would take to turn it into a civilized state with an economy that could stand a comparison with Europe, America or Japan.

 

[Snorrius]

Wait, if American and European economy is pathetic, how is the Russian economy? How should I call something what is 20 times worse than pathetic?

Russia has very big advantage over USA and Europe. Our old in-efficient economy was reformed 'hard way' after crash of Soviet Union, and its remnants were washed away during 98's crisis. So currently we have 'fresh' economy which is in the beginning of its development.

USA's and Europe's economies are at the end of cycle and, to make it worse, they were successful to delay this moment for a few decades just to make it truly devastating. The Eastern Europe made wrong choice and joined this consumer madness, got a lot of loans, sold most of its assets to foreign companies and so on, so theirs economies are doomed as well.

If anybody should remain silent, it's Russia. And not just for five or ten years, but for 50 years at least, because that's how long it would take to turn it into a civilized state with an economy that could stand a comparison with Europe, America or Japan.

Japan's economy is a walking corpse. No one sane would like it. USA dismantled most of its industry and produce mostly finance derivatives. It is nice but you can not eat it. Europe will be hit too, and only time will tell if democracy is there to stay if standards of living will fall ten-fold and crime will take over the cities. Even if democracy will survive in some old democratic countries it will be more like 19th century democracy.

So thanks, but we probably will take our own route as usual.

 

[Ecofarm]

Snorris, do you realize the Russian market is crashing right now? I mean literally. As I type.

 

[RedRalph]

Snorris, do you realize the Russian market is crashing right now? I mean literally. As I type.

I cant believe you are picking today to be smug about another countrie's economy crashing.... in case you havent noticed, this is all as a result of a problem that started in the US and the US may well be hit harder than anyone

 

[Ecofarm]

I'm not being smug, WELL at least not especially. Since when do I pick a day to be smug?

I'm just pointing out that Russian banks are falling a percentage every few minutes and your market will follow, if not today then tomorrow.

Besides, I didn't throw the first punch.

Americans should just stay silent and, about five-ten years into future, prepare to gather pieces of something which was called 'USA'. With pathetic economy as yours and most of European countries,

And, RRW, I already told you. I will be smug as long as the world market follows the US market.

 

[Winner]

Russia has very big advantage over USA and Europe. Our old in-efficient economy was reformed 'hard way' after crash of Soviet Union, and its remnants were washed away during 98's crisis. So currently we have 'fresh' economy which is in the beginning of its development.

Is that what you believe?

Russian economy has NEVER been reformed properly. It collapsed in the early 1990s, then the oligarchs and mafia took over and then Putin made some cosmetic changes while expanding the state's control over the economy.

Fresh economy? No, it's the same crap in a different package. The main source of income is exporting natural gas and oil - your economy stands and falls with that. Oil prices are now falling, so I expect your economy will be among the hardest hit.

The current collapse of Moscow stock exchange kinda proves that.

USA's and Europe's economies are at the end of cycle and, to make it worse, they were successful to delay this moment for a few decades just to make it truly devastating.

Economic cycle - a crises appears from time to time. European and American economies are much stronger and have much more solid foundations. They'll recover soon.

The Eastern Europe made wrong choice and joined this consumer madness, got a lot of loans, sold most of its assets to foreign companies and so on, so theirs economies are doomed as well.

Reality proves you wrong. This "crises" will just slow down the economic growth in new EU member states. Czech economy will grow about 3-4%, even with U.S. and Western European economies in recession.

See, unlike Russia, we can export other things than just oil, natural gas and weapons.

Japan's economy is a walking corpse. No one sane would like it. USA dismantled most of its industry and produce mostly finance derivatives. It is nice but you can not eat it. Europe will be hit too, and only time will tell if democracy is there to stay if standards of living will fall ten-fold and crime will take over the cities. Even if democracy will survive in some old democratic countries it will be more like 19th century democracy.

Get real, your wishful thinking has absolutely no relevance to the current situation

So thanks, but we probably will take our own route as usual.

Fine, warm up a place for us in hell, because

1) you're gonna be there much sooner
2) it will have to freeze before the West gets there

 

[Ecofarm]

Czech economy will grow about 3-4%, even with U.S. and Western European economies in recession.

No-one shall be spared!

DWCZ.DJI DOW JONES WILSHIRE CZECH REPUBLIC INDEX (CZK) czech republic 1,734.89 -67.84 -3.76%
http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/market-overview.html

 

[Winner]

No-one shall be spared!

DWCZ.DJI DOW JONES WILSHIRE CZECH REPUBLIC INDEX (CZK) czech republic 1,734.89 -67.84 -3.76%
http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/market-overview.html

Stock markets aren't exactly the best indicator of GDP growth.

Some slowdown is expected, since most of our exports go to Western Europe, but on the other hand we still have comparative advantages of lower production costs etc. Plus, we had our own "collapse" of banking system in the late 1990s and our own bailout after which we adopted new legislation regulating the financial sector.

Russia, on the other hand, is a Wild West capitalism and Kremlin-controlled state capitalism merged into a strange system plagued by corruption and dependant on oil/gas money.

 

[Verbose]

Russia has very big advantage over USA and Europe. Our old in-efficient economy was reformed 'hard way' after crash of Soviet Union, and its remnants were washed away during 98's crisis. So currently we have 'fresh' economy which is in the beginning of its development.

USA's and Europe's economies are at the end of cycle and, to make it worse, they were successful to delay this moment for a few decades just to make it truly devastating. The Eastern Europe made wrong choice and joined this consumer madness, got a lot of loans, sold most of its assets to foreign companies and so on, so theirs economies are doomed as well.

Japan's economy is a walking corpse. No one sane would like it. USA dismantled most of its industry and produce mostly finance derivatives. It is nice but you can not eat it. Europe will be hit too, and only time will tell if democracy is there to stay if standards of living will fall ten-fold and crime will take over the cities. Even if democracy will survive in some old democratic countries it will be more like 19th century democracy.

So thanks, but we probably will take our own route as usual.

But not even Russians can just drink their oil either.

Being poor doesn't insulate Russia from the effects of a global financial crisis this time. IF it had stayed with command-style economics it might have been insulated to an extent, but the Soviet Union wasn't even capable of producing enough toilet paper for its citizens.

Could be something in it that the waves of banking crisises under the first years after the Soviet demise might have put the financial markets in former Soviet states on a sounder footing than the US and some EU nations though. Wouldn't it be an irony of ironies though if it turned out the by Russians much-maligned Yeltsin years turned out to have inocculated them from some of the nastier vagaries of a market economy? Maybe Yeltsin wasn't so bad after all?

Anyway, for instance the Estonian banks don't look so bad after a couple of cycles of bank failures, and the solvency of the Scandinavian banks, after the early 90's restructuring, it's actually very, very good (roll the Scandinavian/Nordic economies into one, and you get an economic footprint 1,5 times that of Russia, so it's no more insignificant than Russia at least). The UK, Spain and a couple of other places might be in trouble of course, though not the way the US currently us.

This modern Russia however IS totally integrated in the global market economy - it was one of the major arguments in favour of the EU and NATO not trying to hurt it through economic sanctions over Georgia just recently, that it's too big a part of the global economy to forego.

But then the reverse is true, that it will be caught as much in the ripple-effects of the US crisis as anyone else. It will just be a poorer country, more dependant on the export income of raw materials. And as we speak the Moscow stock exchange is hurting, and most of the hurt seems directed at the Gazprom stocks.

If this means the US enters a full-on economic crisis it could mean a drop in the US demand for oil, which should lower world market prices, if a huge demand gets slashed like that, meaning the Russian recovery fuelled by petro-dollars is in jeopardy. Maybe the Chinese can pick up some of the slack, but mostly they will just avail themselves of cheaper oil for their own uses, so Russia isn't really going to profit afais.

 

[Winner]

Russia suspends markets as shares slide

• 
  Story Highlights
  
• Russian stock exchanges suspended for several hours after shares plummet
• Main RTS index and MICEX currency exchange -- reopened later Tuesday
• Turmoil in Russian markets stems from concern over global growth
• Investors also increasingly view Russia as risky place to invest

MOSCOW, Russia (CNN) -- Russian stock exchanges suspended trading for several hours Tuesday after shares plummeted soon after markets opened.

Both exchanges -- the main RTS index and the MICEX currency exchange -- reopened later in the day, the indices said.

Financial regulators ordered the suspension after the RTS plunged more than 8 percent in the first few minutes of trading. The Federal Financial Markets Service (FFMS) also suspended the MICEX in the first few minutes of trading in anticipation of big losses.

The turmoil in the Russian markets stems from concern over global growth following the recent instability in financial markets around the world.

The RTS is Russia's main index and is dominated by commodities, including oil. Russia's economy is essentially founded on the price of oil, which has been hit hard in recent months.

Oil prices have plunged around 35 percent since a high of $147 per barrel in July.

State-owned oil major Rosneft fell 8.2 percent and oil firm Lukoil lost 7.2 percent as oil prices dipped overnight below $100 a barrel. Mining company Norilsk Nickel plunged 8.6 percent and state-controlled VTB bank declined by 5.5 percent.

Investors also increasingly view Russia as a risky place to invest, in part because of the standoff between Russia and the West and the military conflict between Russia and Georgia in August.

And a sharp fall on domestic exchanges earlier this month -- resulting in a two-day shut down of trading -- led to a major loss of confidence among lenders.

Since then, the Russian government has poured in billions of dollars into the banking system in an effort to ease liquidity concerns.

"Globally, investors are running from risk," Moscow-based UralSib bank said in a note to investors, according to The Associated Press.
"With the price of crude crashing back ... plus worries about the outlook for stability within the country's financial system, Russia is firmly in that category."

I hope Abkhazia and South Ossetia were worth that

 

[Verbose]

I hope Abkhazia and South Ossetia were worth that

The nasty thing about situations like this is, that if this indeed turns out to be the price for them, then by golly aren't people in Russia just going to make sure they were worth the cost!

It's kind of the problem with proud nations, it can be kind of hard for outsiders to detect what the devil they're so proud of at times. Except that they keep shoving that blatantly obvious pride in your face.

We don't really want to corner places like that, and have them fall back of having nothing to declare for themselves, except their pride.

 

[red_elk]

Stopping war and rescuing own soldiers, being attacked - stupid and blatant pride. Yes, we must stop doing such things, so you won't have problems with proud nations.

 

[Verbose]

Stopping war and rescuing own soldiers, being attacked - stupid and blatant pride. Yes, we must stop doing such things, so you won't have problems with proud nations.

You know, there are a lot of nations who send troops to UN peace-keeping missions, take casualties, and yet do not invade someone over it. It even tends to be regarded as a failure, doubly; for not keeping the peace in the first place, and then for escalating things.

Starting a war to stop a war is a bit of a contraditction in terms in any case.

But all of what you've brought up just seems to confirm the general point that it's usually bad policy to push nations to the point where pride becomes a main motivation, for lack of other things. One should always leave an obvious honourable escape route open, and never press an advantage further than one is actually prepared to deal with the consequences.

 

[Fayadi]

I am a believer in Peak Oil. The crude oil production in USA of today is half of its peak in 1970. If all the oil producing countries were to suddenly face the same decline like USA into the next few years and they stop exporting (which is very possible). Probably Russia will go back as one of the superpower again. There is still over trillion dollar worth of natural gas in Russian soil waiting to be taken out.

The importance of crude oil is not so much that it powers electricity. Electricity has a lot of substitute. But it is the fuel for transportation that has very few alternatives. 70% of the usage of world crude's oil is to power transportation. When everyone is living on little oil and Russia still has a lot of energy reserves, it will be a superpower again. China will be in a better position than US or Western Europe to survive peak oil because it has a strong manufacturing base to supply to its citizens while the West too eager to outsource their manufacturing industry to cut costs in their earlier years, will be caught in a tight spot. The West need to rebuilt them in the aftermath of the economic collapse due to Peak Oil. Shanghai Cooperation Organization, in the worst nightmare of the West will be richer than NATO.

Unless in some unbelievable manner, mankind suddenly invent a new energy source in the form of liquid fuel in a rapid manner. The scenario I envisioned, is very much possible. Worldwide biofuel production is only around 1 million barrels a day. World Crude oil demand is 85-86 million barrels a day. Anyway just my summary why I thought Russian economy holds a bright future because of its energy reserves.

 

[red_elk]

You know, there are a lot of nations who send troops to UN peace-keeping missions, take casualties, and yet do not invade someone over it. It even tends to be regarded as a failure, doubly; for not keeping the peace in the first place, and then for escalating things.

Starting a war to stop a war is a bit of a contraditction in terms in any case.

Judging from results, war was stopped 5 days later with minimal casualties. Aggressor's military infrastructure was destroyed. Result is perfect.

But all of what you've brought up just seems to confirm the general point that it's usually bad policy to push nations to the point where pride becomes a main motivation, for lack of other things. One should always leave an obvious honourable escape route open, and never press an advantage further than one is actually prepared to deal with the consequences.

Agree with this.
Though Saakashvili had not too many other options, if he wanted to retake Ossetia.

 

[Snorrius]

Snorris, do you realize the Russian market is crashing right now? I mean literally. As I type.

What do you mean? Stock markets? In Russia financial sector is underdeveloped, we do not live off selling financial derivatives, and financial institutions are highly supervised by the government after 98's, so it is not that a lot of people will be hit by this directly. Actually, it is right about time to remind people that trader and broker is not real profession, and people have to earn their bread by doing something useful for society, not by stocks' speculations.

Of course, falling stock are indicator of some undesirable economy processes - first is outflow of capital from Russia and second is that companies are selling their stock assets to get some money.

First is a problem of many countries. East Europe and some Baltian pseudostates will be hit way more by this. This is a global process and one can do little about it. And most of running capitals are speculative, those who made capital investments in plants and factories probably will not forfeit it.

The second can be dealed with using the help of government. We have foreign exchange reserves which is big enough to keep financial system in order.

You also should consider fundamental differences between common Americans and Russians. Falling stock for common Russian, if he interested enough in this topics to know about it at all, is just a sign that speculators will be punished. Falling of flat and house prices is eagerly anticipated by millions of Russians who can not allow it now because of this bubble.

So, for Russia stock market is not THAT BIG DEAL as in case of USA or UK. After all, we living off selling real things, no off green paper and financial derivatives.

I'm just pointing out that Russian banks are falling a percentage every few minutes and your market will follow, if not today then tomorrow.

Russian banks falling every minute? Do not you meant "American banks" or "European banks"? Of course, we will have similar troubles with banks who had poor financial managements, but it is American financial system which have highest probability to collapse, not Russian one.

Fresh economy? No, it's the same crap in a different package. The main source of income is exporting natural gas and oil - your economy stands and falls with that. Oil prices are now falling, so I expect your economy will be among the hardest hit.

It depends on how big will be the falling of oil prices. Actually, relatively small money is going to Russian economy, the biggest share is going to foreign exchange reserves and stabilization fund. Russia is safe somewhere to 70-80$/barrel.

Economic cycle - a crises appears from time to time. European and American economies are much stronger and have much more solid foundations. They'll recover soon.

Actually, US was able to recover from Great depression only due to WWII. And a lot of countries in the world are in permanent crisis during decades, so I would not be this optimistic. Incoming crisis will be stronger for some countries than the Great Depression was for USA.

Just look what's going now. We hear about old US banks is going bankrupt/nationalized/joining another bank. Washington Mutual? Wachovia? Those guys survived GD and are falling now. Who is next? Wells Fargo? Citigroup?

And after banks US industry giants like GE and GM will follow the case.

I will not say that this is the END, but in any case US will need at least a couple of decades to reboot economy and get things going.

Reality proves you wrong. This "crises" will just slow down the economic growth in new EU member states. Czech economy will grow about 3-4%, even with U.S. and Western European economies in recession.
See, unlike Russia, we can export other things than just oil, natural gas and weapons.

I will not say about Czech economy, because I was not interested enough in this topic, but Baltian economies are crushing as we type. And I am talking not about some stock market but about state's budgets, companies going bankrupt, falling salaries, unemployment and so on.

 

[Ecofarm]

Russian banks falling every minute? Do not you meant "American banks" or "European banks"? Of course, we will have similar troubles with banks who had poor financial managements, but it is American financial system which have highest probability to collapse, not Russian one.

Dude, let me put this as simply as I can:

YOUR FINANCIAL SYSTEM IS COLLAPSING

It's worse than in the US. Check the god damn news already. How do you go an entire day and not even notice one of the worst days in Russian market history?!

Yesterday, the Russian stock market was closed by the state for the second time this month to avoid catastrophic collapse. When it re-opened around noon, your state banks fell about 1% every 20mins and your stock market followed suit. Your market closed down over 5%! I hope today is better for you, I really do (I have no hatred for Russian people). We had a great day today, so you should see some recovery as well. G'luck.

 

[Yeekim]

...some Baltian pseudostates...

We totally respect you too...

Apart from that, it is nice to notice that "outflow of capital is global process" in your opinion. Care to say where it flows into? Mars? Jupiter?

 

[Ecofarm]

The Russian market got closed by the state again today?

That's what I heard but it is only 11am in Moscow, so I don't see how it was falling, closed, reopened and gained a percent already. Could be though.

It's up a percent, anyway. Looks like there will be recovery for Russia today as well.

This monday, if there is no bail-out from US taxpayers, will be the test for both the US and Russian markets. Others will follow as well, Japan being the most vurnerable. We'll see.

 

[a_propagandist]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/28/green-energy-cost-efficie_n_130073.html

Ah. Science, isn't it great? For my 2 cents, I believe that Russia should be a Great Power and have influence in the world. But states such as Estonia and Ukraine should not have to fear Russian involvement.