Middle East thread

[Ordnael]

Russia's access to key military bases in Syria hangs in the balance, threatening its role in the region

The downfall of Bashar Assad in Syria is a blow to Russian influence in the Middle East, likely impacting its access to key military bases.

www.businessinsider.com

The fall of Bashar Assad has thrown Russia's military presence in Syria into question. It also poses a threat to Russia's ability to project power throughout the Middle East and beyond.

On Sunday, Syrian rebels, led by the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham, overthrew Syria's longtime autocratic ruler.

It followed a dizzying two-week campaign that caught the world off guard and many are now trying to work out what will come next for the country.

Russia has been a close ally of Syria and has leases on two military bases in the country, giving it a strategic foothold in the Middle East.

"It hits them hard," Edmund Fitton-Brown, a senior advisor to the Counter Extremism Project, said of Russia.

He added: "Syria has been their most reliable Arab ally."

A springboard to power​

In 2017, Syria granted Russia a 49-year lease on the Hmeimim air base and the Tartus naval base, in return for military assistance.

Russia has used the bases to project power in the Mediterranean and into Africa, and as a counter to NATO's southern flank.

"These bases are the most important bases outside the direct sphere of Russian influence," Andreas Krieg, a Gulf specialist at the Institute of Middle Eastern Studies at King's College London, told Business Insider.

Ann Marie Dailey, a geopolitical strategist at RAND, told BI that despite its massive landmass, Russia "doesn't have great geography for power projection."

"It doesn't have warm water ports that have direct access to the oceans," she added. "And so having a port in the Mediterranean is incredibly strategically useful."

Hmeimim, meanwhile, gives Russia a refueling base and overflight access throughout the Middle East and on to Africa, she said.

On Sunday, Ukrainian military intelligence said that Russia had pulled two ships from Tartus, and had transferred weapons from Hmeimim.

BI was unable to independently verify the report.

But satellite images captured by Planet Labs PBC show Russian warships that had been seen in Tartus earlier this month were gone as of Monday.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Russia intended to have serious discussions with future Syrian authorities about access to the bases, but that it is too soon for now.

The potential loss of influence in Syria is not just about state power. The bases have also allowed support for the activities of the Russian paramilitary group Wagner.

"If you look at the Wagner footprint in Africa, you can tell that it's been enabled by the fact that they have that access in Syria to support those operations," said Dailey.

According to the Institute for the Study of War, losing the bases in Syria will "immediately" interrupt Wagner's rotation and resupply efforts.

Related stories​

Russia's ambitions for global leadership​

Russia's involvement in Syria is a legacy of the Soviet era when the USSR traditionally maintained strong ties with other socialist states.

Russia propped up the Assad regime for more than a decade, notably sending aid during the 2011 Arab Spring, and troops and weapons to help counter the uprising in 2015.

Russian President Vladimir Putin had many reasons to stick his neck out for Assad.

"By backing Assad, Russia positioned itself as an indispensable player in regional politics, thereby increasing its diplomatic leverage," said Ali Bilgic, a professor in international relations and Middle East politics at the UK's Loughborough University.

But the huge cost of invading Ukraine appears to have forced Russia to choose between the two.

It "really speaks to how stretched thin Russian forces are," according to Dailey.

Putin has based Russia's international stature on the idea it can play a major role in different parts of the world, said Cristian Nitoiu, a Russia-focused lecturer in diplomacy and foreign affairs, also at Loughborough University.

Yet Putin's refusal to help Assad this time "basically shows that Russia was unable to support one of its long-lasting friends," Nitoiu said.

"The events in Syria can be seen as a sort of strategic failure on the part of Russia, and the optics look really bad," he added.

An uncertain future​

In a statement on Sunday, Russia's foreign ministry said it was maintaining contact with "all" Syrian opposition groups, adding that while Russia's Syrian bases are on high alert, there's no serious threat to their security at the moment.

Russia has called Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham a terror group — so the fact that they are communicating with rebel groups now "demonstrates the importance of these bases," Dailey said.

HTS is also designated a terror group by the US and the UN.

What the US does regarding events in Syria will also be pivotal to what sort of foothold Russia can maintain, Loughborough University's Bilgic said.

On Saturday, President-elect Donald Trump posted on Truth Social: "THIS IS NOT OUR FIGHT. LET IT PLAY OUT. DO NOT GET INVOLVED!"

Should the US withdraw all involvement, Russia could exploit any ensuing power vacuum. But "this scenario appears improbable," Bilgic said.

In fact, diminishing Russian influence in Syria is a huge strategic draw for the US, he said, adding that there is also a concern that a new Russia-backed government could give room to ISIS, as well as threats to Israeli security.

Russia's presence in Syria has also helped it shape its objectives in energy markets, Bilgic said.

"Economically, the Tartus base played a role in Russia's energy strategy, helping to counter competing projects like the Qatar-Turkey pipeline," he said.

A grim reminder​

What has happened in Syria in recent days may lead to some sleepless nights in Russia.

"I think it will rattle some folks in the Kremlin to see just how quickly Russia's military had to withdraw," Dailey said.

Assad's fall may also be a grim reminder for those in power in Russia of the necessity of crushing domestic resistance quickly, she said.

"Anyone in the Kremlin, because they've studied Russian history, knows that an autocratic regime can crumble very quickly."

 

[banzay13]

Various footage of killing pow, some civilians, even even murder of wouden soldiers in hospital (probably from Manjib). Well, nothing new from 14-17 from progressive jihadist.
O. No. They don't cut heads now. It's prohibited.
All horrors of civil war. The question - how long it last

 

[Broken_Erika]

Israel confirms attack on Syrian naval fleet​

Israel has confirmed it carried out attacks on Syria's naval fleet.
The BBC has verified videos showing blasts at the port of Latakia in Syria, with footage appearing to show extensive damage to ships and parts of the port.
The UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) says it has documented more than 310 strikes by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) since the fall of the Assad regime on Sunday.
Israeli warplanes have also reportedly carried out hundreds of airstrikes across Syria, including on the capital, Damascus.

In a statement, Israel's Defence Minister Israel Katz said the IDF was aiming to "destroy strategic capabilities that threaten the State of Israel".
He added that the operation to destroy the Syrian fleet had been a "great success".
Meanwhile, the IDF confirmed it has troops operating in Syrian territory beyond the demilitarized buffer zone between Syria and the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.
It added that its strikes were to prevent weapons falling "into the hands of extremists" as Syria transitions to a post-Assad era.
The SOHR reported that the attacks spanned Aleppo, Damascus and Hama, with more than 60 taking place overnight between Monday and Tuesday alone.
They targeted military facilities of the Syrian Army, including weapon warehouses, ammunition depots, airports, naval bases and research centres.
Reports say that many of the facilities hit have not merely been damaged, but completely destroyed.
Rami Abdul Rahman, the founder of the SOHR, described the impact of the strikes as destroying "all the capabilities of the Syrian army" and said that "Syrian lands are being violated".

The IDF acknowledged that its troops had entered Syrian territory but told the BBC that reports of tanks approaching Damascus were "false".
It said some troops had been stationed within the Area of Separation that borders the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights "and then a few additional points".
"When we say a few additional points, we're talking the area of the Area of Separation, or the area of the buffer zone in vicinity," IDF spokesperson Nadav Shoshani told the BBC.
BBC Verify has geolocated an image of an IDF soldier standing just over half a kilometre beyond the demilitarized buffer zone in the Golan Heights, inside Syria on a hillside near the village of Kwdana.
On Monday, the Israeli military released photos of its troops who crossed from the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights into the demilitarised buffer zone in Syria where UN peacekeepers are based.

The IDF seizure of Syrian positions in the buffer zone was a "temporary defensive position until a suitable arrangement is found", Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Monday.
"If we can establish neighbourly relations and peaceful relations with the new forces emerging in Syria, that's our desire. But if we do not, we will do whatever it takes to defend the State of Israel and the border of Israel," he said on Monday.
Turkeys foreign ministry condemned Israel's entry into the buffer zone, accusing it of an "occupying mentality" during a "sensitive period, when the possibility of achieving the peace and stability the Syrian people have desired for many years has emerged".
This buffer zone, also known as the Area of Separation was set up as part of Israel's ceasefire agreement with Syria in 1974 to keep Israeli and Syrian forces separated, following Israel's earlier occupation of the Golan Heights.
Israel unilaterally annexed the Golan in 1981. The move was not recognised internationally, although the US did so unilaterally in 2019.

Asked about the IDF strikes on Monday night, Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar said Israel was concerned only with defending its citizens.
"That's why we attack strategic weapons systems like, for example, remaining chemical weapons or long-range missiles and rockets in order that they will not fall into the hands of extremists," he said.
On Monday, the UN's chemical watchdog warns authorities in Syria to ensure that suspected stockpiles of chemical weapons are safe.
It is not known where or how many chemical weapons Syria has, but it's believed former President Bashar al-Assad kept stockpiles.

• Follow here for updates
• What comes next for Syria?
• In maps: How did anti-Assad rebels take control?
• Syria rescuers end search for secret cells in notorious Saydnaya prison

Israel's attacks come after Syrian rebel fighters captured the capital, Damascus, and toppled Bashar al-Assad's regime over the weekend. He and his father had been in power in the country since 1971.
Forces led by the Islamist opposition group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) entered Damascus in the early hours of Sunday, before appearing on state television to declare that Syria was now "free".
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cqx808q7lrno

 

[Kyriakos]

Wasn't the leader of this new ruling side in Syria involved in terrorist bombings in Paris etc?
His group has known ties to Al-Qaeda and even IS.

Who are Syrian rebels Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, HTS?

The Islamist militant group HTS has a long and involved history in the Syrian conflict.

www.bbc.com

 

[r16]

no , prep work . The Yinon plan . Not a secret war plan . Random argumentation to lead Israel to expand , with extreme violence . I ı will be reported ... so , let us start in baby steps . CRTL+F for Hauran . Near the end of 22th paragraph on page 8th .


now that everybody will eventually blame us Turks as a race , your "hostility" thing already proven by the rejection of not-El-Kaide to let Ihvan preachers to attend the prayers in Halep . Don't worry , it will be so thick that nobody will ever read it .

 

[r16]

no , you are getting this wikipedia page on Israel Shahak for your daily anti-semitic tropes stuff . So , to cut it short , concentration camp survivor wants to be American like , where the Jews are actually changing the world for (arguably) the better , with leading in the arts and science , winning handsome amounts of money besides ... And then the very same Jews who need brains to do all that in the US are blindly supporting an Israel where some Chemistry Professor has to tell outright lies so that it will be not THE religious obligation to let some American tourist die on the street by not providing an ambulance on Shabbat . His point being if the American Jews read what's actually printed in the Israeli media they will stop the fundraising and the caricatures will have to return to their holes in the ground and Israel will be safer in the end , too .

the Yinon plan getting its own book , as Israel invades Lebanon . The Turkish pdf ı downloaded quotes the guy saying that the Arab neighbours of Israel are acting pathetically and not reacting in any sensible way . Maybe they will get some sense and mend their ways and act properly , because some new Israel will show them no mercy .

the limited numbers who read the passage ? Well , the Greater Israel is no longer a myth . They are invading Syria , even before finishing the claimed genocide action in Gazze . Oh , you have never seen me smooth operating , right ?

they flew the biggest series of attacks in the history of their airforce , basically destroyed Syrian war potential in two days . They could have done that in any day since 9/11 ... Why now ? Officially the Syrian State no longer exists , that's why . It could have asked for help . We might have helped in certain ways . Americans would have kept Israel down for not all Americans fall for the extremely high quality propaganda . Not all Israelis are weirdos killing Palestinians for fun .

in return for a "state" around Halep . Without the city , the economic hub of Syria . Without "a claim on the whole country" , depicted as invaders with the bonus costs of supporting the place from this country . A second Sunni state in Damascus , defined as the legal Goverment and hostile to its northern neighbour . Instead of whole Syria that can invite Russia or China or stuff , daily strife that saps the strength . The need to support the Northern state causes opening of the border , allowing the sleeper cells arrive in your logistical depth .

the Yinon Plan is not a plan . But it is a military plan all the same . It becomes real when people take it as real . The Gulf Arabs led by MBS and MBZ have had their military adventures . Mega BS was roughly handled in Yemen , Mega Big Zit in Libya . By Iran and New Turkey respectively . Even if the latter case was more of British oil interests vs French oil interests ... They push new adventures on easily , because Yinon Plan is ... in the end ... the plan .


the number of downloads of pdf for Yinon Plan at the time of this post: 0

 

[Voidwalkin]

With the rebels making fairly compelling offers to ex-government fighters, it isn't too surprising that many might decide possible death at the hands of the rebels in the future vs certain death at the hands of the rebels now is a pretty easy choice.
Honestly, I think a comparison to the collapse of Zaire is a fairly useful comparison. Fingers crossed that Syria has already been through its version of "Africa's World War".

It feels like this was a negotiated peace with the mid-level officers and chieftains. I'd guess money was exchanged, and those who'd decline it were threatened. Wouldn't be shocked if it's similar to our strategy in the famous troop surge. Money here, leverage there.

I'd also bet it falls apart within five years. Religious zealots have a poor track record in government. The inevitable dissent will be exploited by Iran, at some point.

 

[r16]

the money came from the Saudis and the UAE . While the Sednaya Prison is such a story , its liberation came with the people who would really be expected to take potshots against the invading Israeli Army . Had they remained in their positions .

 

[Verbose]

Netanyahu claim annexation of Goland heights. But it's democratic annexation, so the world will be fine with it.
Leader of HTS says Israeli not enemy for New Syria, but Iran and Hisbolla are.
(yesterday he said Syria will return Golan heights), so... will see. IDF keep bombing Syria (100 strikes yesterday, 150 today. Mostly military and logistics targets)

It's Russia that is trying to reintroduce right-of-conquest as a legitimate principle in international politics anyway.

Israel considers the EU antisemitic by now, since it won't support it.

Various footage of killing pow, some civilians, even even murder of wouden soldiers in hospital (probably from Manjib). Well, nothing new from 14-17 from progressive jihadist.
O. No. They don't cut heads now. It's prohibited.
All horrors of civil war. The question - how long it last

If Russia was supposedly doing such a bang up job of upholding decency by bombing Assad back into office, maybe it should have kept its priorities in order.

Between Assad and the Russians otoh, and the Islamists otoh, the reasonable Syrians were either killed or driven away. They're here in the EU now.

 

[r16]

not really recommending to read or anything of the links but just as a comparison , as of today the Yinon Plan has a bigger page than its "official successor" , the Greater Middle East Initiative or Project here . The Turkish page has way more and none of the claim that Europe was isolated after 1453 . This is no doubt a relic of the wikipedia wars between editors ; some original document ı glimpsed says the Muslim world in the 2000s was isolated from the rest and this was going to be fixed with (a) some move ı already forgot (b) improving the women rights and (c)providing internet and stuff .

in Turkish political discourse BOP (the short form after translation) has just two features . Condeleeza Rice said the borders of 22 countries will be changed (apparently when she was the Secretary of State) . And the PM is the co-president with Dabya or W or Bush the Second or ex-fighter pilot who remained supple enough to avoid the shoes of that Iraqi journalist . Turkish wikipedia page provides that New Turkey was responsible for a subcommittee or whatever on dialogue for assistance for better understanding of Democratic concepts . Alongside Italy . And Yemen . But no US . No Prime Ministers or Presidents named .

the PM has used the co-presidency with Dabya thing only a few times . Only when attempting to get the seperatist vote , once offering Diyarbakır as the capital of BOP . That's a couple of years in prison if you or ı say it and the courts have little else to do for the day .

the Condi thing is real enough . You CAN read this one here. Not totally official ... but printed in a magazine:

those who want to believe otherwise can read this piece where it is like the West really wants to help or whatever . You will miss nothing by not reading it .

this post basically happens because the Party trolls in New Turkey had a solid day of work rejecting that BOP exists . Those who believe in the existance of BOP are flat earthers , they must be ignored . Mostly related to the PM as the co-president of BOP on a day Israel is invading an Arab country with the ease you would see on the military training grounds .

the best part in the Turkish page ? In a bid to bring Democracy , Syria is put under pressure , lran is sanctioned and Libya forced to join a series of diplomatic meetings . The US military article is incidentally optimized for the Congregation with lies that it will be made the Islamic Vatican . There is a CFC post that will return that examines how the Congregation would trick and deceive the US to take over the world by ...? Based on a calendar page that might be copy pasting a newspaper editorial from the 90s . The post about the US creating a New Turkey as the single enemy in space , promising a bloodless defeat must still be around ... This after they blocking the entire range of military development stuff as discovered and reported on by New Turkey . Smart ones , them Americans , promising to do that by 2050 . ı promised people wouldn't understand this , right ?

yinon plan desperately seeks a new war anywhere with anyone . As long as it is a war . It seeks to polarize the US political scene , first and foremost . By attacking an US ally out of the blue if necessary . Likud grew out of the frustrations of the 1973 war , reasonable thinking would sink it . Everybody loves power and well , Israel has been "special" from the very beginning ... Yinon Plan is a just a random argument . And an absolute gem of how Israeli extremism embraced American Evangelism . Like who doesn't like a global nuclear war in the 80s so that Israel will somehow survive and be a superpower .? Feeding the end of times craziness of the Neoconservatives to carve an even greater part than their own religious craziness had initially dreamed of .

no , none of this is a conspiracy . America be the dominant power for some time , rationality no longer exists in American politics , Israel holds a special position . Can anyone argue against that ? Yes , there is interference . The basic greed thing in the nature of the human being . New Turkey failing to destroy Turkey as the global balance still can not handle that . Meaning the Gulf Arabs had to overcome their differences on what they would get from the constructive chaos Condeleeza Rice promised to unleash on the Greater Middle East . Which was extensively done in the Obama era . Lately waiting on the outcome of the attempts to replace New Turkey with a New Turkey that wouldn't look like New Turkey . ı promised a confusing read , right ? A tool in the hands of anyone who can grab it . A response to the possibility that the Israelis can overcome Netanyahu and even more impossibly corner the raging nuttiness . An inside joke . Causing despair in the Opposition is a long time standard procedure . How about bringing back the Yinon plan ? The one Israel Shahak made famous ? As a "You won't believe this but this is what it really is" thing . To mock the atheists and moderates who do not want to be the New Turkey under Netanyahu ?

hence we are actually at the end of part 22 on at page 8 .

like "A Sunni State at the Aleppo area, another state in Damascus hostile to its northern neighbour" . A Turkish protectorate in the North destined to almost fail without the economic power of Halep and requiring constant expenditure while allowing infiltration . And using Syrian Nationalism and always present Takfiri ideologies simultaneously to fight us . Instead of us using both statelets or even the entire Syria against Israel . Like how much do people know about Turks anyhow ? Apparently a bit ...

this seems a repeated thing ? It is ... Deleting things from the long text i have as ı post here ; this one seemed better than ı had already written . Anything that says the moderate Jihadists , the ones from Idlip are controlled by or even linked to New Turkey is a lie . A LIE , if you missed that . To make us responsible for anything that fails in the "liberated" Syria .

they are hostile .

 

[Ordnael]

Interim Syrian leader vows to rebuild but faces cash crunch​

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/refugees-return-syria-caretaker-prime-minister-appointed-2024-12-11/

DAMASCUS, Dec 11 (Reuters) - Syria's new interim prime minister said he aimed to bring back millions of Syrian refugees, protect all citizens and provide basic services but acknowledged it would be difficult because the country lacked foreign currency.
"In the coffers there are only Syrian pounds worth little or nothing. One U.S. dollar buys 35,000 of our coins," Mohammed al-Bashir told Italian newspaper Il Corriere della Sera.

"We have no foreign currency and as for loans and bonds we are still collecting data. So yes, financially we are very bad."
Bashir ran the rebel-led Salvation Government in a tiny pocket of northwestern Syria, before the 12-day lightning rebel offensive swept into Damascus and toppled veteran autocrat President Bashar al-Assad.
Rebuilding Syria will be a colossal task following a civil war that killed hundreds of thousands of people. Cities have been bombed to ruins, swathes of countryside depopulated and the economy gutted by international sanctions. Millions of refugees still live in camps after one of the biggest displacements of modern times.

With European countries pausing asylum applications from Syrians, some refugees from Turkey and elsewhere began making their way home.
U.S. officials, engaging with rebels led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), urged them not to assume automatic leadership of the country but instead run an inclusive process to form a transitional government.
The new government must "uphold clear commitments to fully respect the rights of minorities, facilitate the flow of humanitarian assistance to all in need, prevent Syria from being used as a base for terrorism or posing a threat to its neighbours," U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a statement.

HTS is a former al Qaeda affiliate that led the anti-Assad revolt. It has lately downplayed its jihadist roots but remains designated as a terrorist organisation by the United Nations, United States, EU, Turkey and others.
In a brief address on state television on Tuesday, Bashir said he would lead the interim authority until March 1.
Behind him were two flags - the green, black and white flag flown by opponents of Assad throughout the civil war, and a white flag with the Islamic oath of faith in black writing, typically flown in Syria by Sunni Islamist fighters.

'WALK TOGETHER IN FRIENDSHIP'​

The world will be watching closely to see whether Syria's new rulers can bring stability to a country where factions may seek revenge following a brutal civil war fought on sectarian and ethnic lines.
The pope, in his first public remarks about Syria since the ending of al-Assad's rule, called on the country's diverse religious groups to "walk together in friendship and mutual respect for the good of the nation". Several ancient Catholic rites are among the many minority sects concerned about rule by a government with roots in Islamist militancy.

For refugees, the prospect of returning home has brought a mixture of joy and grief over hardship in exile.
Ala Jabeer cried as he prepared to cross from Turkey into Syria with his 10-year-old daughter on Tuesday, 13 years after the war forced him to flee his home. He returns without his wife and three of his children who died in devastating earthquakes that struck the region last year.
"God willing, things will be better than under Assad's government. We've already seen that his oppression is over," he said.
In the capital Damascus, banks reopened for the first time since Assad's overthrow on Tuesday. Shops also opened again, traffic returned to the roads, cleaners were out sweeping the streets and there were fewer armed men about.

U.S. CAUTION​

U.S. Deputy National Security Adviser Jon Finer told Reuters Washington was still working out how it will engage with the rebel groups.
Finer said a contingent of about 900 U.S. troops on a counter-terrorism mission in northeastern Syria would be staying there. The top U.S. general responsible for the Middle East visited them on Tuesday.
State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller declined to say whether Washington would lift HTS's terrorist designation.
"We have seen over the years any number of militant groups who have seized power, who have promised that they would respect minorities, who have promised that they would respect religious freedom, promised that they would govern in an inclusive way, and then see them fail to meet those promises," he said.

ISRAELI INCURSION​

The rebels' victory has shifted power dynamics in the region, a major blow to the Iran-led "Axis of Resistance" political and military alliance, which also includes Lebanon's Hezbollah, armed groups in Iraq, Yemen's Houthis and Hamas, all opposing Israeli and U.S. influence in the Middle East.
In a speech reported by state media, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei struck a defiant tone about the pressure on Iran and its proxies.
"The more pressure you exert, the stronger the resistance becomes. The more crimes you commit, the more determined it becomes. The more you fight against it, the more it expands," Khamenei said.
"Iran is strong and powerful—and will become even stronger," he said.
Assad's fall was hailed by his enemy Israel, which moved tanks across the border and launched airstrikes to destroy the hardware of Assad's defunct army, saying it aimed to ensure weapons would not fall into hostile hands.
The Israeli military said it had struck most of Syria's strategic weapons stockpiles in the past 48 hours. Defence Minister Israel Katz said it aims to impose a "sterile defence zone" in southern Syria that would be enforced without a permanent troop presence.
Israel acknowledged on Tuesday that its troops had taken up some positions in Syria beyond a demilitarised zone established following the 1973 Middle East war, though it denied they were advancing towards Damascus.

 

[Klaus Hergersheimer]

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/assads-fall-brings-the-moment-rid-syria-chemical-weapons-2024-12-09/

A team at OPCW has spent more than a decade trying to clarify what types of chemical weapons Syria still possesses, but has made little progress due to obstruction by Assad's government, it said.
"To date, this work has continued, and the Syrian declaration of its chemical weapons programme still cannot be considered as accurate and complete," the OPCW statement said.
A diplomatic source said Assad's government had been "playing cat and mouse with us for years" and that "we are convinced that they still had an ongoing programme."
Advertisement · Scroll to continue

"It costs millions and millions of dollars without making any progress," said the source, speaking on condition of anonymity. "So it really is a great opportunity now to get rid of (chemical weapons) for good. This is the moment."
Security guarantees will need to be arranged before any deployment by OPCW inspectors. That would require contacting new power brokers in Syria, possibly rebel forces in the alliance that toppled Assad, such as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, a former al Qaeda affiliate labelled a terrorist group by some governments.

Now here's a golden opportunity. I think the de facto government of Syria should agree to immediately hand over any chemical weapons they've still got in the country to UN-OPCW inspectors. Maybe people will like them then.
I mean, it's either that or Israel will just keep on blasting targets where they think they're hidden.

 

[Birdjaguar]

AG sues Saudi firm for ‘excessive’ pumping
ASSOCIATED PRESS
PHOENIX — Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes says she is suing a Saudi Arabian agribusiness over what she calls “excessive pumping” of groundwater.
She alleges that the Fondomonte alfalfa farm in western Arizona is violating a public nuisance law even though the area has no groundwater pumping regulations. Mayes said Wednesday that Fondomonte’s use of groundwater threatens the public health, safety and infrastructure of local communities in rural La Paz County.
It’s Arizona’s latest action against foreign companies that use huge amounts of groundwater to grow thirsty forage crops for export. The Associated Press emailed Fondomonte seeking a response to the lawsuit.

 

[r16]

they are hostile ?

well , to the person on the street , it might not be that obvious . "Whatever he says becomes real" has a nice ring , but it is an unbroken string of wins that slackens the attention to bring on the losses . And not-El-Kaide is nice to Israel , watching them ethnically cleanse this village or that village , this time in Syria . It could be even be defined as delightfully that Israel was minding its own business when it discovered evil jihadists were firing on the hapless UN troops . Saving them by driving 20 or 30 kilometers beyond the UN posts . Not-El-Kaide is nice to seperatists , having signed a ceasefire , basically after US troops arrived in Rakka . Both sides will follow Greater Israel rules by making Euphrates the border , leaving most of the oil to the seperatists . Not-El-Kaide can definitely be nice to New Turkey . Current and former chiefs of the so called national intelligence service visited Syria .

current chief prayed in the Umeyyad Mosque , supposedly the PM will repeat it in the next week . This in itself a major political thing here . PM promising to pray in the Umeyyad Mosque in Damascus on September 6th, 2012 . Dug it somewhat and it turns out the Syrian Army had shelled a Kurdish neighbourhood in Halep for assisting rebels . America supports seperatists . This means New Turkey can conquer Halep with seperatist help . Considering Gulf Arabs had quickly restricted New Turkey control of militias . New Turkey is a tool , it is not to act on its own . New Turkey exists to fight Iran and the like , Turkish blood to be paid for the destruction of major powers of the Middle East and the reward for Turks for such a victory is losing their country and stuff . Minor clashes between the seperatists and the Regime . Nothing that justifies New Turkey intervening and saving their seperatist brothers . The 2011 Oslo talks of seperatists and New Turkey leaked on the 18th , a border crossing captured by Arab rebels on the 19th as America allows New Turkey win a victory or something !

this is the essence of New Turkey . Working with seperatists or fighting them is seasonal . Working with Muslim Brotherhood is standart , though the PM once went to Mursi's Egypt and warned them to slow down and talk like they have accepted Secularism ... The entire world accepts New Turkey as an Arab country . Because New Turkey acts like an Arab country . The number of actual Arabs in A-K-P is infact low , considering the percentages of ethnicity in the country . Makes no difference in the end . Just read an internet thing that says Congregation leaked part of agreement from the Oslo talks that required Turkish soldiers and policemen who served in the Southeast tried as warcriminals . At a time when they were fighting the Party for the control of the country . And they were themselves tried the JITEM case and the like . It is a standart after the troubles of the kind , size and duration that has taken place that excesses should be accepted and those responsible punished . Inevitably that can only be symbolic and the other side is never angelic . Like killing people and throwing them into wells filled with acid after questioning them with torture methods "might" have been "tolerated" if the fighting was not about regular share of drug profits and ancillary benefits . With this last sentence do not think ı am saying that against the seperatists .

turks is an extremely nebulous concept . The Oslo talks called for the trial of Turkish soldiers and policemen serving there and not for the trial of Arab soldiers and policemen serving there . If found somehow confusing , millions will become Arabs when the Turks are safely removed from any equation of power . That's why tons of people are laughing at me . That's why they will curse me and my kind or whatever even if ı am not real at all . When we are all dead and they are all s_domized and are officially made slaves . Because we are dead , if you have failed to notice it .

that's why the PM talked of praying at the Umeyyad Mosque . As has been mentioned multiple times in CFC , the Syrian Military Museum was next to it in Damascus and PM found its exhibits too sprawling (which must have been in 2008 or '10) and told the Syrians to remove so that there could be a million people when he later returned as a conqueror . Damascus is old , center of it must be crowded . Syrians did that .

not that the Alawites wanted to give up the control of the country . They might have been invaded by the US as proven by a number of incursions . Qatar already dominated New Turkey , Alawites would be "forgiven" for they would convert and neutralize the Alevis , a task in which the Arabs and would be Arabs in Turkey had so far failed . This is the otherwise strange thing of a federation and stuff between New Turkey and Syria , which is frankly a stupid idea . That must be why web searches do not find links to it today ...

oh , the refugees . Our brothers . Who indeed were . As Syrian girls and women were harassed and bought real cheap . As you could employ 4 Syrians with the wage you would pay a single citizen of the country . Millions of them . Held here as Europe picked the best and pays 3 billion euros time to time . Will vote A-K-P , those who get citizenship . Remarkably they have become less brotherly as they start their own businesses and buy only from Syrian merchants and dealers in country . Which results in the Nazi party for the future , which is like sekritly controlled by A-K-P . As almost racists solely concentrate on keeping the "regime" and their drug partnership with the seperatists . And considering the younger Syrians are Gen Z and practically useless , more "martial races" were imported from Afghanistan and Pakistan . When nobody bothered to conquer Syria for New Turkey , New Turkey brings Syria here ...

eh , writing history , right ? Very much more to write ... But ı imagine one has been reading deeper and discovered Muslim Brotherhood uses Sufi practices , hence the evil Saudis stealing American water in somewhere that's not THE Middle East . If this was the XP desktop or Windows 8 laptop ı could copy paste the relevant lines endlessly , but the tablet takes quite an effort . The idiot who will become the next Saudi King , His Excellencies the Crown Prince Mega BS is still very much the idiot who will become next Saudi King , His Excellencies the Crown Prince Mega BS . And Mega Big Zit might very well be personally affronted by the things reported to him soon because of stuff . They know the whole lot , they are hostile . As much as the Muslim Brotherhood , loyal friends and assets of the US , both sides .

as New Turkey celebrates the VicTOrY of the chief of the so called national intelligence service praying in the Umeyyad Mosque in Damascus as he was driven there in a car with the current strongman of Syria at the wheel , yes , that guy with 10 million dollars on his head talking in the CNN and whatnot ... with the chief of the so called national intelligence service reportedly wearing a shawl , with the chief of the so called intelligence service praying at the Umeyyad Mosque [almost] as an Arab , let us remember what the PM said ...

We will go to Damascus in the shortest time possible to embrace our brothers with affection. That day is close at hand. Inshallah, we will visit Saladin's tomb to read a prayer on his behalf and pray in the Umeyyad Mosque as well. We will freely pray for our brotherhood at the tombs of Bilali Habeşi and Ibni Arabi, the Süleymaniye Complex and the Hijaz railroad station.

kurds first because of the expectation for them to conquer Halep . Further point. A French general arrived at the tomb in 1920 after defeating the lover of Lawrence in the Battle of Mayadun and put his boot on the coffin like structure to say "Saladin, wake up. We have come. The Cross has defeated the Crescent" . This would be mentioned so that New Turkey could claim the Crusaders were FINALLY defeated . Umeyyad Mosque as the biggest one around. Bilali Habeşi to signify intent for victories in Africa , Ibni Arabi for controlling Arabian culture and whatnot . Complex for claiming the mantle of Ottoman Empire . Railroad station looks like similar in the first glance but it reminds ot the past . Only thing the Arabs of a particular kind did in the Great War was rebelling and trying to cut the railroad to Medine , officially starting from that very station . A full threat against the Saudis . There have been times New Turkey shoots itself in the foot with nice rousing speeches ; this one here is why it took 12 or so years . Damascus might have fallen in 2012 . Before the Iranians arrived .

one more thing the CFC has no need of engaging . Avoid if you can't handle Mega BS . Am a Starfleet Admiral, right ?

 

[Ordnael]

Assad's final hours in Syria: Deception, despair and flight​

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/assads-final-hours-syria-deception-despair-flight-2024-12-13/

DUBAI, Dec 13 (Reuters) - Bashar al-Assad confided in almost no one about his plans to flee Syria as his reign collapsed. Instead, aides, officials and even relatives were deceived or kept in the dark, more than a dozen people with knowledge of the events told Reuters.
Hours before he escaped for Moscow, Assad assured a meeting of about 30 army and security chiefs at the defence ministry on Saturday that Russian military support was on its way and urged ground forces to hold out, according to a commander who was present and requested anonymity to speak about the briefing.

Civilian staff were none the wiser, too.
Assad told his presidential office manager on Saturday when he finished work he was going home but instead headed to the airport, according to an aide in his inner circle.
He also called his media adviser, Buthaina Shaaban, and asked her to come to his home to write him a speech, the aide said. She arrived to find no one was there.
"Assad didn't even make a last stand. He didn't even rally his own troops," said Nadim Houri, executive director of the Arab Reform Initiative regional think-tank. "He let his supporters face their own fate."

Reuters was unable to contact Assad in Moscow, where he has been granted political asylum. Interviews with 14 people familiar with his final days and hours in power paint a picture of a leader casting around for outside help to extend his 24-year rule before leaning on deception and stealth to plot his exit from Syria in the early hours of Sunday.
Most of the sources, who include aides in the former president's inner circle, regional diplomats and security sources and senior Iranian officials, asked for their names to be withheld to freely discuss sensitive matters.

Assad didn't even inform his younger brother, Maher, commander of the Army's elite 4th Armoured Division, about his exit plan, according to three aides. Maher flew a helicopter to Iraq and then to Russia, one of the people said.
Assad's maternal cousins, Ehab and Eyad Makhlouf, were similarly left behind as Damascus fell to the rebels, according to a Syrian aide and Lebanese security official. The pair tried to flee by car to Lebanon but were ambushed on the way by rebels who shot Ehab dead and wounded Eyad, they said. There was no official confirmation of the death and Reuters was unable to independently verify the incident.

Assad himself fled Damascus by plane on Sunday, Dec. 8, flying under the radar with the aircraft's transponder switched off, two regional diplomats said, escaping the clutches of rebels storming the capital. The dramatic exit ended his 24 years of rule and his family's half a century of unbroken power, and brought the 13-year civil war to an abrupt halt.
He flew to Russia's Hmeimim airbase in the Syrian coastal city of Latakia, and from there on to Moscow.

Assad's immediate family, wife Asma and their three children, were already waiting for him in the Russian capital, according to three former close aides and a senior regional official.
Videos of Assad's home, taken by rebels and citizens who thronged the presidential complex following his flight and posted on social media, suggest he made a hasty exit, showing cooked food left on the stove and several personal belongings left behind, such as family photo albums.
RUSSIA AND IRAN: NO MILITARY RESCUE
There would be no military rescue from Russia, whose intervention in 2015 had helped turn the tide of the civil war in favour of Assad, or from his other staunch ally Iran.
This had been made clear to the Syrian leader in the days leading up to his exit, when he sought aid from various quarters in a desperate race to cling to power and secure his safety, according to the people interviewed by Reuters.
Assad visited Moscow on Nov. 28, a day after Syrian rebel forces attacked the northern province of Aleppo and lightning drive across the country, but his pleas for military intervention fell on deaf ears in the Kremlin which was unwilling to intervene, three regional diplomats said.
Hadi al-Bahra, the head of Syria's main opposition abroad, said that Assad didn't convey the reality of the situation to aides back home, citing a source within Assad's close circle and a regional official.
"He told his commanders and associates after his Moscow trip that military support was coming," Bahra added. "He was lying to them. The message he received from Moscow was negative."
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Wednesday that Russia had spent a lot of effort in helping stabilise Syria in the past but its priority now was the conflict in Ukraine.
Four days after that trip, on Dec. 2, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi met with Assad in Damascus. By that time, the rebels from the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) Islamist group had taken control of Syria's second-largest city Aleppo and were sweeping southwards as government forces crumbled.
Assad was visibly distressed during the meeting, and conceded that his army was too weakened to mount an effective resistance, a senior Iranian diplomat told Reuters.
Assad never requested that Tehran deploy forces in Syria though, according to two senior Iranian officials who said he understood that Israel could use any such intervention as a reason to target Iranian forces in Syria or even Iran itself.
The Kremlin and Russian foreign ministry declined to comment for this article, while the Iranian foreign ministry was not immediately available to comment.

ASSAD CONFRONTS OWN DOWNFALL​

After exhausting his options, Assad finally accepted the inevitability of his downfall and resolved to leave the country, ending his family's dynastic rule which dates back to 1971.
Three members of Assad's inner circle said he initially wanted to seek refuge in the United Arab Emirates, as rebels seized Aleppo and Homs and were advancing towards Damascus.
They said he was rebuffed by the Emiratis who feared an international backlash for harbouring a figure subject to U.S. and European sanctions for allegedly using chemical weapons in a crackdown on insurgents, accusations that Assad has rejected as a fabrication.
The UAE government didn't immediately respond to a request for comment.
Yet Moscow, while unwilling to intervene militarily, was not prepared to abandon Assad, according to a Russian diplomatic source who spoke on condition of anonymity.
Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, attending the Doha forum in Qatar on Saturday and Sunday, spearheaded the diplomatic effort to secure the safety of Assad, engaging Turkey and Qatar to leverage their connections to HTS to secure Assad's safe exit to Russia, two regional officials said.
One Western security source said that Lavrov did "whatever he could" to secure Assad's safe departure.
Qatar and Turkey made arrangements with HTS to facilitate Assad's exit, three of the sources said, despite official claim by both countries that they had no contacts with HTS, which is designated by the U.S. and the U.N. as a terrorist organisation.
Moscow also coordinated with neighbouring states to ensure that a Russian plane leaving Syrian airspace with Assad on board would not be intercepted or targeted, three of the sources said.
Qatar's foreign ministry didn't immediately respond to queries about Assad's exit, while Reuters was unable to reach HTS for comment. A Turkish government official said there was no Russian request to use Turkish airspace for Assad's flight, though didn't address whether Ankara worked with HTS to facilitate the escape.
Assad's last prime minister, Mohammed Jalali, said he spoke to his then-president on the phone on Saturday night at 10.30 pm.
"In our last call, I told him how difficult the situation was and that there was huge displacement (of people) from Homs toward Latakia ... that there was panic and horror in the streets," he told Saudi-owned Al Arabiya TV this week.
"He replied: 'Tomorrow, we will see'," Jalali added. "'Tomorrow, tomorrow', was the last thing he told me."
Jalali said he tried to call Assad again as dawn broke on Sunday, but there was no response.

 

[Broken_Erika]

Israeli army prepares to stay on border peak of Mt Hermon for winter​

Israel's defence minister has instructed troops to prepare to stay for winter on the peak of Mount Hermon, which sits on the border between Syria, Lebanon and a UN demilitarised buffer zone in the Golan Heights.
The announcement comes after Israel seized control of the zone on 8 December after the fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
Defence Minister Israel Katz's office said in a statement that "due to what is happening in Syria, there is enormous security importance to our holding on to the peak".
Katz posted a picture on X showing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu using binoculars with the words: "Overlooking the Syrian peak of Mount Hermon, which returned to Israeli control after 51 years."
The UN has called on Israel to withdraw from the buffer zone, which sits between Syria and the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.
UN Secretary General António Guterres said in a statement that he was "deeply concerned by the recent and extensive violations of Syria's sovereignty and territorial integrity".
The UN has said Israel is in violation of a 1974 disengagement agreement between Israel and Syria that established the buffer zone.
Israel has said the 1974 disengagement agreement "collapsed" with the fall of the Syrian government.
The summit of Mt Hermon is on the Syria-Lebanon border. The UN base near the summit is within the buffer zone.
The Golan Heights is a plateau about 60km (40 miles) south-west of Damascus.

Israel seized the area from Syria in the closing stages of the 1967 Six-Day War and annexed it in 1981. The move was not recognised internationally, although the US unilaterally did so in 2019.
After rebel forces overthrew the Assad regime in Syria, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) seized control of the buffer zone and moved into new positions in the Golan Heights, including the top of Mt Hermon.
The statement from Katz's office said that "everything must be done to ensure the IDF's readiness on site in order to allow the fighters to stay there in the severe weather conditions".
Guterres said on Thursday that the 1974 agreement "remains in force" and condemned any actions inconsistent with it. He called on its parties to uphold their obligations, including "by ending all unauthorised presence in the area of separation".
Guterres also said he was "particularly concerned" about the hundreds of Israeli airstrikes on several locations in Syria.
The IDF said its air force and navy conducted more than 350 strikes this week, targeting Syrian military assets.
Israel said it was acting to stop weapons falling "into the hands of extremists".
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c390j9x9w9go

 

[Kyriakos]

I read there is US interest to take over the british military bases in Cyprus. For a number of reasons - but primarily because Cyprus is needed by Israel.
I think it would be for the best.
US of course already has massive military bases in Greece, including in Crete.

 

[r16]

there is no US interest . That's some special interest group interest . The bases are heavily used by the US though it is naturally a secret or whatever . Also British territory . They will not be fighting over this , them Anglosaxons . Any major and visible effort can only be possible if the US is planning to leave Turkey , which might mean an over the horizon radar on the island to replace Kürecik . There is not enough land to settle Left Wing Israelis who might have been turned off by both Netanyahu and Trump . AND nobody will be giving those lands to the Greek Cypriots .

yes , ı have seen a claim that would help to kick Turks out of the island diplomatically , like taking revenge of Nixon's fall . Yes , it will be nice to watch them try as it is now an American sport to imprison their own presidents .

 

[Kyriakos]

You are thinking small. Stan is the only actual plan, to help Israel and friends with their new med ports and gas.

 

[r16]

am thinking big enough . Racial Purity inevitably pops up in such stuff . Though it should be interesting in Israel . Previously it was always the Jews to be driven out . Best guess is that the Isreali Left will be accused of being Palestinians .