Mini - Madness at 13th Department

[Mat93]

What exactly is the logic behind the No Lynch vote?

Also, Visorslash cast the lynching vote on JoanK. Risky for Day 1 if he's a scum.

More scans.

Could be sane:
Optical
Zack
Verarde -> if yes, BSmith is innocent
Mat93 -> if yes, Visorslash is mafia
Topsecret
BSmith

Could be naive:
Optical
Zack
Verarde
Topsecret

Could be paranoid:
Mat93
DaveShack
BSmith

Could be insane:
Mat93 -> if yes, Visorslash is not mafia
DaveShack
Topsecret
BSmith

(Added BSmith to your tallies in the quote).

We don't to figure out who is what. All we need is to get 1 person to have 1 (or more) innocent results, and 1 (or more) guilty results. That instantly gives us 3 suspects, clearing the other 5 of us (will be 4 at the end of the night, with a no lynch).

 

[Optical]

If you both (Bsmith and Mat) are innocent, there's a 4/9 chance neither of you are sane. Take from that what you will.

Bear in mind though, either of you could be bluffing and mafia.

 

[Optical]

Sorry about that xpost.

 

[topsecret]

vote: Visorslash hasn't said anything about scanning.

 

[Zack]

More scans.

That puts the choice of who lives and who dies solely in the hands of the mafia, instead of in the hands of seven townies and one scum.

The lynch is the town's most effective way of catching scum. Any night abilities are secondary, and are only useful in helping determine who the town should lynch each Day.

If the town does not lynch, they lose their primary weapon, and instead allow only the mafia, and no one else, to determine who dies; additionally, the burden of catching scum is placed solely on secondary abilities.

Unless the game features scums who must kill everyone by a certain deadline, which this game does not feature, I never see a reason not to lynch. Are there convincing arguments with statistical backing? Sure. However, the only statistic I need is the 0% chance of eliminating a scumbag if the town does not lynch.

This game happens to be one that can potentially be solved with a spreadsheet. It is also a game that can be solved by analysis, just like any other mafia game.

In short, a vote for No Lynch eliminates the town's most useful and powerful ability.

 

[Zack]

vote: Visorslash hasn't said anything about scanning.

Vote: topsecret

Jumping on an easy bandwagon for someone who cast the lynching vote on a scumbag yesterday.

 

[Optical]

unvote, vote: Topsecret

I really don't like your reasoning. Visorslash doesn't need to say anything about the scans. It's fairly sketchy that they're even accurate.

 

[Mat93]

That puts the choice of who lives and who dies solely in the hands of the mafia, instead of in the hands of seven townies and one scum.

This game happens to be one that can potentially be solved with a spreadsheet. It is also a game that can be solved by analysis, just like any other mafia game.

In short, a vote for No Lynch eliminates the town's most useful and powerful ability.

While I agree it does give the scum more power who dies, the odds are very strong on lynching an innocent. Which IMO, is detriment to the abilities we have. Due to our strong numbers advantage (7:1), we have enough days to get in twice as many scans as we need to win.

I think we will win quicker by no lynching until we clear half (approx) of the players, but I could be wrong. And lynching also means we stand a good chance of killing off 1 of the 4 cops that we need to get a conclusive result via scans. Maybe only 3 left now, but 4 is best case.

Assuming worst case:

We have 3 sane or insane cops. We lynch, killing another. Nightkill is lucky, and kills another. We lynch the final one. After night 2, we lose any chance of getting a conclusive result from our abilities, we have to scum hunt in thread.

OR

We have 3 sane or insane cops. We no lynch, and nightkill hits one. 3 times. We then gain another round of useful scans (night 3). With the advantage of having more players alive from which to scumhunt with.



I'm not saying no lynch forever. I'm saying no lynch until we are at a stage where we can make good use of our scan results. Which would be one day, or two at most (in theory).

 

[topsecret]

I'm innocent, but whatever. Go ahead and lynch me. It'll say innocent.

 

[Zack]

While I agree it does give the scum more power who dies, the odds are very strong on lynching an innocent.

So what? What's your point? The odds for lynching an innocent are always much stronger than the odds for lynching a mafioso, or else the mafia have won the game.

The argument from likelihood to lynch an innocent is a poor, scummy one.

Which IMO, is detriment to the abilities we have. Due to our strong numbers advantage (7:1), we have enough days to get in twice as many scans as we need to win.

Due to our strong numbers advantage (7:1), we have enough days to lynch, lynch, lynch and eliminate the final scumbag, even despite significant collateral damage. With your plan, we get less chances to lynch the scumbag.

I think we will win quicker by no lynching until we clear half (approx) of the players, but I could be wrong. And lynching also means we stand a good chance of killing off 1 of the 4 cops that we need to get a conclusive result via scans. Maybe only 3 left now, but 4 is best case.

Assuming worst case:

We have 3 sane or insane cops. We lynch, killing another. Nightkill is lucky, and kills another. We lynch the final one. After night 2, we lose any chance of getting a conclusive result from our abilities, we have to scum hunt in thread.

Why are you so scared to potentially lynch a useful role? You have to take risks to win a mafia game.

OR

We have 3 sane or insane cops. We no lynch, and nightkill hits one. 3 times. We then gain another round of useful scans (night 3). With the advantage of having more players alive from which to scumhunt with.

We lose lynch opportunities that way. I repeat, the lynch is the town's not only the best, most effective way of eliminating scumbags, it is the ONLY WAY. The town not lynching is like the mafia not killing. Silly.

I'm not saying no lynch forever. I'm saying no lynch until we are at a stage where we can make good use of our scan results. Which would be one day, or two at most (in theory).

For what it's worth, most of the time someone argues that No Lynch is strategically advantageous, they are scum.

 

[Zack]

I'm innocent, but whatever. Go ahead and lynch me. It'll say innocent.

If you're innocent, then be a good one. Simply accepting the lynch is silly, pointless, and detrimental to the town cause if you're innocent.

Who are your top suspects? Who do you think is scum? What are your thoughts about the Lynch vs. No Lynch argument? How do you think scans should be used and coordinated?

Sitting there and saying nothing helps no one, if you're innocent.

 

[Mat93]

Why are you so scared to potentially lynch a useful role? You have to take risks to win a mafia game.

Because there is absolutely no need to whatsoever, at this stage. I agree that in most cases it is wrong to no lynch, but since does most cases have 7 cops out of 8 players alive?

We don't even need to figure out what type of cop we are, merely whether we are one that always gives the same results, or one who doesn't. As soon as 1 person figures out that they are either sane, or insane, we will win within 2 rounds. Assuming that people don't decide to ignore that person when they make their claim.


For what its worth, I am innocent, and am willing to be lynched to prove that. Even more of a waste of a day than no lynching though.



The moment someone reveals in thread that they had an innocent result on someone (or multiple people), and a guilty result on someone (or multiple people), we will be able to win inside 2 rounds, with 100% chance of success.

 

[Zack]

It's silly for the same reason why it would be silly for a mafia team with scanning abilities to refrain from killing at night so they can find out everyone's role before they start killing.

 

[Mat93]

It's silly for the same reason why it would be silly for a mafia team with scanning abilities to refrain from killing at night so they can find out everyone's role before they start killing.

That's because they are outnumbered, and want to kill as many people as possible as quickly as possible to win. We need 1 kill. They would need multiple kills.

If there was 2 mafia left, I wouldn't want to no lynch. The safest strategy is no lynch, IMO.

 

[topsecret]

Who are your top suspects? What are your thoughts about the Lynch vs. No Lynch argument? How do you think scans should be used and coordinated?

Sitting there and saying nothing helps no one, if you're innocent.

1.Obviously Visorslash, because if heis mafia, he has no scan ability. This is going with Mat as sane. If Visor isn't guilty, then we know Mat is paranoid or insane (or guilty).
2. Let's lynch. Setting there is useless.
3. We should use 3 scanners to a person, then match results.

 

[Zack]

I like your answers.

Unvote, Vote: Verarde

 

[Visorslash]

1.Obviously Visorslash, because if heis mafia, he has no scan ability. This is going with Mat as sane. If Visor isn't guilty, then we know Mat is paranoid or insane (or guilty).
2. Let's lynch. Setting there is useless.
3. We should use 3 scanners to a person, then match results.

Lol, I only just logged in, of course I couldn't have shared my results. I don't use invisible mode.

I got DaveShack as innocent. At the moment, I think Mat93 is innocent (stop making me your N1 target!) because I don't think JoanK would've have switched to kill his own mafia partner.

 

[topsecret]

Well, we got a faker then. Time for joyous accusations...

 

[Visorslash]

Well, we got a faker then. Time for joyous accusations...

Mat93 also can't be mafia because I am alive.

Vote: Topsecret

I voted to lynch a mafioso last round, you didn't. (FTR: I voted JoanK because his vote of Dreadnought after Dread had posted the investigation summary post, seemed scummy to me, because Dreadnought seemed innocent to me, and JoanK looked like he was trying to off an innocent using D1 as a reason.)

You wanting to kill me is suspiscious.

 

[Mat93]

Mat93 also can't be mafia because I am alive.

Vote: Topsecret

I voted to lynch a mafioso last round, you didn't.

Vote tally from yesterday:

Spoiler :

JoanK: Zack, Visorslash
Mat93: Daveshack, JoanK
Verarde: Bsmith
Bsmith: Verarde
Topsecret: Mat93
Optical: Topsecret
Zack: Optical

From the tally, we can clear 2 people. Me, as JoanK voted for me in the attempt to stay alive (if I am scum, he would of made sure it was a scum who would die, if I'm not, then the scum have a chance of neither dieing). And Visor, for making the second vote on JoanK. Visor isn't stupid, he wouldn't bus someone into the lead on day 1, when there is a very slim chance of someone else gaining 3 votes (from 10 players).

Spoiler :

Could be sane:
Optical
Zack
Verarde -> if yes, BSmith is innocent
Mat93 -> if yes, Visorslash is mafia
Topsecret
BSmith
Visorslash

Could be naive:
Optical
Zack
Verarde
Topsecret
Visorslash

Could be paranoid:
Mat93
DaveShack
BSmith

Could be insane:
Mat93 -> if yes, Visorslash is not mafia
DaveShack
Topsecret
BSmith
Visorslash

If we add what we can deduce from the lynch, we get:

Spoiler :

Could be sane:
Optical
Zack
Verarde
Topsecret
Visorslash

Could be naive:
Optical
Zack
Verarde
Topsecret
Visorslash

Could be paranoid:
Mat93
DaveShack
BSmith

Could be insane:
Mat93
DaveShack
Topsecret
BSmith
Visorslash

Results:
Mat93 - Visorslash
Visorslash - DaveShack
Verarde - BSmith
Optical - Dreadnought
DaveShack - Dreadnought
topsecret - Optical
Zack - Dreadnought
BSmith - Visorslash

(Blue = innocent, red = guilty)

unvote; vote: topsecret