The problem remains getting gunpowder quickly enough.
What route do you use? Education + bulbs or going through feudalism ---> mach ----> guilds ---> gunpowder?
Going through education is more beakers, but it might be faster. Alternatively, one could do a philosophy bulb and then use the resulting tech trades + money grubbing to deficit research towards gunpowder through guilds quickly (PHI bulb isn't very off-track, since you probably want CoL, math, and alphabet anyway and meditation is easy to get).
The other issue is that if you're gunning the bottom path ASAP, you're going to hit guilds first. Guerrilla III muskets will do better than knights on hilly terrain and are 10 hammers cheaper. However, nothing upgrades to them, they come later, and they have limited movement without the hills. While they do ignore walls/castles, knights ignore first strikes. Overall the muskets are a bit better but only if you can get them to guerrilla III IMO.
I find it reasonably hard to use either knights or muskets without support, even against just longbows. Cuirassers are probably the first unit I can routinely get some favorable K/D from without help (I can just barely beat 1:1 attacking into enemy territory with knights, which puts me behind in hammers).
Musket/treb/pike is very strong with tech trades off or on slow speeds though. Muskets soundly own everything in the field around then except knights.
I think the top path is far superior. It's true that the bottom path will get you to gunpowder a bit faster, especially if you can bulb something with a GE. But the top path gives you civil service, and then allows you to do liberalism -> nationalism. Nationalism lets you draft a big army of muskets very quickly. With an overwhelming number of G3 muskets, I was actually doing reasonably well in kill ratio. Most importantly, it lets you end the war quickly before they have time to start pumping out longbows.
Obviously this is a strategy designed for hilly terrain, where knights won't work very well. On flat land, the knights would probably work better.