For the next city what about the floodplain in the south (1S of fp, looking at the screenshot)? Farmed fp and some forests to chop, some decent tiles to cottage. The spot in the NE claims forest, but will drain your

and I think

is the most important thing now while getting HBR. edit: though maybe I'm overstating the difference. NE-spot can work one green river tile and some non-river green cottages.
I think capital can overflow to granary, switch to worker at size 4, whip next turn, then start growing on cottages towards size 6 working cottages. Nobamba maybe 1-pop worker with the help of a chop. That area needs a lot of cottages, fast.
In general, I wouldn't go writing without CRE or PHI when planning a HA-attack. Math bulb is just way too far away. You have nice river with a lot of green, EXP for faster granaries -> faster growth, plus one

-resource is a nice boost as you can grow one extra size. That's easily enough to get a lot of value from green river tiles. Agree on HBR before archery, though probably no big deal. The correct amount of stables for me is usually 0-1 and I think here the amount of available forest points towards building a stable in capital. You will also have a number of chariots since with AGG and some high

-tiles you soon run out of things to put

into.
I think Joao is a great target for HA-rush. Doesn't build an insane amount of troops but builds a lot of cities, very quickly, which means that his forces are very spread out early. It's also very good that you can go for the capital first.