With respect, I feel like the basis for awarding the handicaps is not quite right.
Here's why I think the system used to be as it was: the intent was to pick one AI that was doing well, and give it additional bonuses, to create a challenge for the player - even if the challenge was artificial. This explains why these handicaps never applied to things that poorly-performing AIs would manage to achieve.
Here's what I think we are trying to do: the intent is to try and get all the AIs to mimic the position that a human player of a particular skill level would be in, to create a challenge for the player - but the challenge is not supposed to feel artificial, it is supposed to give a 'flavour' of what it would be like for me to play
@CrazyG.
We can't just make an AI that plays like an equivalently skilled player because it would require machine learning. As it is, the AI has
@Gazebo's wonderful AI routines, which do a good job, but can't possibly make decisions with the same foresight as the player. Under the new system, the goal should be to give handicaps to the AI to
make up for their poor decision-making.
In practical terms, what is AI poor decision-making? It's the lost opportunity costs. If they can pick A and B, and A gives 5 Faith, and B gives 4 Faith, and they pick B, relative to a human, they're 1 Faith down - excusing the very simplistic example. The handicap here would have to be 1 Faith on the choosing of B. Handicaps need to rewarded with respect to choices, not results.
Now, we can distinguish choices on two levels. There are micro choices, and macro choices. Micro choices are: what do I assign each Citizen to work this turn? Which building do I begin next?
Then there are macro choices. Macro choices are: what is my long-term goal? What sort of victory condition am I aiming for? How can I best plan against future wars? Diplomatically, where am I in relation to other civs? What Religious choices and Policies might interact best in the long-term?
The AI does not need much more help at micro choices on Deity. It gets significantly more Citizens than the player, so gets more opportunity to assign a Citizen to the 'correct' tile. It produces building and units faster. It gets bonus XP to help it with picking substandard promotion paths. It produces Wonders faster than the player.
The AI does need help with macro choices. It doesn't really do long-term planning. It has faux long-term planning at best, where particular personality traits weight towards particular decisions, but it's not a proper evaluation. Moreover, it's really hard to adequately reimburse the AI for macro-choices. What is the opportunity cost of a war with Montezuma? Goodness knows, it's almost indeterminate, you can have a vague idea at best.
So we can provide generalized handicaps for the AI on making macro choices. What are the macro-choices - these long-term planning decisions, or planning-decisions with interactive effects?
Here's my list:
- The tech path the AI follows
- Security matters - making the decision to go to war, but also making the decision to seek allies, or move troops to a potential defensive border, or to start good trade relations with a potential threat
- The Religious choices the AI makes
- The Policy choices the AI makes.
- Committing to a Wonder - ordinarily, buildings are built so quickly, and are so self-contained (in that they add few effects to other buildings or tiles, barring a few exceptions), I don't think they constitute macro choices, but this is less true of Wonders which do require long-term planning and consideration of the interactive effects.
- Settling a city - this obviously requires enormous forward-planning
I'm open to others being suggested. Note I have excluded Great People production - I think this is actually closer to a micro choice and I've never felt like the AI struggles to produce or use Great People well.
So here's when I think the AI needs bonus handicap yields:
- Whenever the AI finishes a tech, to compensate it for the tech it should have picked but didn't
- Whenever the AI declares war, is declared war upon, or loses a war, or wins a war; to compensate it firstly for diverting resources to a war that may not bring significant gains, and secondly for losing a war it didn't properly foresee where a player would have and therefore didn't prepare for.
- Whenever the AI makes a Religious choice, or adopts a new Religion (including Religions being spread to it)
- Whenever the AI chooses a Policy, to compensate it for the policy it should have picked but didn't
- Whenever the AI completes a Wonder, to compensate it for what it should have produced by didn't
- Whenever the AI settles a City, to compensate it for misplacing the City relatively to how a player would have
I don't think these handicaps should be equal. They should be greatest for placing Cities and losing a War, since these have the most consequences for the AI and are what players do so much better than an AI relative to other areas. They should be relatively slight for completing a Wonder.
In addition, I don't think these handicaps should pay out in lump amounts, because that doesn't mean the AI mimics a player either. It makes the AI frontloaded.
As a player, when I found a better City than an equivalently positioned AI would, it doesn't pay out immediately. In fact, in the short-run, the AI City is often better, precisely because they don't evaluate long-term and are much better at instant pay-outs. Rather, the difference is in the long-run due to the strategic evaluation of where the City is placed.
So the AI's handicaps need to pay out similarly - start small, and steadily pay off more. Rather than a lump sum on settling a City, the AI needs to be getting an additional amount 50 turns *after* settling the City, if you see what I mean - that's when they're falling behind the equivalent player.
How can we do this? Well, this is my idea: bonus yields are actually continuous. Each time the AI does one of the above, it gets a permanent additional yield income. For example, every time it founds a City, it gets +1 Production/Food/Gold/etc (exact numbers to be discussed) until the end of the game, to mimic the fact the player continuously benefits from their superior placement, instead of a single payment of 50 Production/Food/Gold in one turn.
Thoughts?