nvm

[Cutlass]

We'll consume less government resources...right? Wait, no, you have Boomers sucking SS dry...

Make those profligate Boomers pay for their debt binge by working it off into their 70-80s and eating cat food.

A lot of people have suggested raising the retirement age. No follow through.

 

[mrt144]

A lot of people have suggested raising the retirement age. No follow through.

Of course there is no follow through. The demographics of voting people would toss the people who followed through out.

I've come up with a solution to old people sucking the country dry. Very un-PC, very poor taste;

Legalize the hunting of people at 62.5 years of age for a 10k "Old Codger Hunting" license.
To circumvent being hunted sell "Old Codger Hunting Immunity" for twice as much. If you can't pay the 20k you'd likely be on the government tit for a while.

We reduce long term liabilities and create a modest income doing this.

 

[Cutlass]

Now how about an idea that's of some use?

 

[mrt144]

Now how about an idea that's of some use?

Make Obama do it first.

 

[JerichoHill]

employment goes down in a recession...thats what your graph shows. whoohoo!

 

[Cutlass]

employment goes down in a recession...thats what your graph shows. whoohoo!

That explains a portion of the deficit now. What are the longer term trends?

 

[PiMan]

A lot of people have suggested raising the retirement age. No follow through.

Australia's doing it right now. Over the next decade, the retirement age will rise from 65 to 67.

 

[mrt144]

Australia's doing it right now. Over the next decade, the retirement age will rise from 65 to 67.

I heard that if you eat the heart of an aussie, you can gain their political will to do the right thing.

 

[BasketCase]

Hold on. Why is this even being called a "depression" to begin with???

This isn't a depression at all. It's a correction. The loose credit and subprime market were not the cause of our current crappy economy--they're the reason the economy was prosperous to begin with. When the banks clamped up, the market sank to its new equilibrium point.

This is it, folks. We're not in a depression, and there will be no economic "recovery". This is where the market is going to stay. Well, that's not entirely true. Eventually credit markets will begin to loosen again, and people will start lending and borrowing again. Everybody will quietly go back to the old ways, and at that point (not before) the economy will get back to where it's "supposed" to be.

 

[bender19]

I heard that if you eat the heart of an aussie, you can gain their political will to do the right thing.

We also have compulsory superannuation, which means people don't need to relly on social security schemes that governments frequently use to cover defecits. Not perfect given most older people don't have sufficient super but the looming burden of retirees isn't quite as severe as most Western countries.

The US will probably have to increase immigration and increase the retirement age to ease the effects.

 

[Theige]

Australia's doing it right now. Over the next decade, the retirement age will rise from 65 to 67.

The US started doing that a couple years ago also, stretched out over 20 years though iirc.

 

[PiMan]

I heard that if you eat the heart of an aussie, you can gain their political will to do the right thing.

It's true, but only for aussies that aren't me.

Hold on. Why is this even being called a "depression" to begin with???

This isn't a depression at all. It's a correction. The loose credit and subprime market were not the cause of our current crappy economy--they're the reason the economy was prosperous to begin with. When the banks clamped up, the market sank to its new equilibrium point.

This is it, folks. We're not in a depression, and there will be no economic "recovery". This is where the market is going to stay. Well, that's not entirely true. Eventually credit markets will begin to loosen again, and people will start lending and borrowing again. Everybody will quietly go back to the old ways, and at that point (not before) the economy will get back to where it's "supposed" to be.

You are right that this isn't a depression (in most places), but it is a recession. However, a depression or recession can also be a correction. But what about places that didn't have subprime issues that are in recession right now?

And the market clearly didn't sink to its equilibrium point, it sank lower. We can tell because even before the recession is over and the economy returns to growth, the market has improved more than 20% from its low in many regions. Some market indicators are already at end 2008 levels.

 

[Snorrius]

What is the current timeline for your doomsday predictions? And did you really originally think there would be this much improvement in this "bubble"?

Where did you see "this much improvement"? Current "improvement" is made by extented government spending, bailouts, spending savings, selling whatever can be sold by companies and corporations etc. It is temporary measuries, but there are no any fundamental changes.

Employment figures have been improving (negative slower), banks have largely stabilised, much of the private debt that started this mess has already been absorbed by the banks. What will set off the last part of the crash?

Huge USA's budget deficit, lack of the trust to dollar as reserve currency and collapse of Treasuries. Check yields regularly .

As for timeline, have not looked to my crystal ball for some time, but I've already started to sell my stashed dollars .

 

[PiMan]

Where did you see "this much improvement"? Current "improvement" is made by extented government spending, bailouts, spending savings, selling whatever can be sold by companies and corporations etc. It is temporary measuries, but there are no any fundamental changes.

You are pretty much the only person I know who is still predicting that we haven't seen the bottom of this recession. Extended government spending is what rescued economies from the Great Depression, what's so different this time?

And fundamental changes include most of the riskiest subprimes already absorbed by the banks.
Another fundamental change is confidence. Previously economists were saying that the worst was yet to come, which made it more likely; now economists are saying things are looking up, which makes a return to long term trends more likely.

Huge USA's budget deficit, lack of the trust to dollar as reserve currency and collapse of Treasuries. Check yields regularly .

As for timeline, have not looked to my crystal ball for some time, but I've already started to sell my stashed dollars .

The deficit is huge, but the US can afford it for a while yet. Any loss of trust in the US dollar as the major reserve currency will be replaced by trust in the Euro.

Give me an estimate. This year? Next year? Ten years from now?

 

[Cutlass]

Hold on. Why is this even being called a "depression" to begin with???

This isn't a depression at all. It's a correction. The loose credit and subprime market were not the cause of our current crappy economy--they're the reason the economy was prosperous to begin with. When the banks clamped up, the market sank to its new equilibrium point.

This is it, folks. We're not in a depression, and there will be no economic "recovery". This is where the market is going to stay. Well, that's not entirely true. Eventually credit markets will begin to loosen again, and people will start lending and borrowing again. Everybody will quietly go back to the old ways, and at that point (not before) the economy will get back to where it's "supposed" to be.

Go check what the OP has to say

 

[Integral]

Go check what the OP has to say

Doesn't excuse the fact that the OP is wrong.

--

The good folks at BLS have released inflation data -

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased
0.3 percent in May before seasonal adjustment, the Bureau of Labor
Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Over the last
12 months the index has fallen 1.3 percent. This is the largest decline
since April 1950 and is due mainly to a 27.3 percent decline in the energy
index.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U increased 0.1 percent in
May after being unchanged in April. The index for energy, which had
declined the previous two months, rose 0.2 percent in May as an increase
in the gasoline index more than offset declines in other energy indexes.
The food index decreased for the fourth consecutive month, falling 0.2
percent as the indexes for all major grocery store food groups declined.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.1 percent in May
following a 0.3 percent increase in April. The smaller increase was
partly due to the tobacco and smoking products index, which turned down in
May after rising sharply in March and April. In May, the indexes for
shelter, new and used motor vehicles, and medical care posted increases,
while the public transportation index fell 1.0 percent and the indexes for
apparel and tobacco declined slightly. The index for all items less food
and energy has increased 1.8 percent over the last 12 months.

Year over year inflation, overall: -1.3%
Year over year inflation, core: 1.8%

Compound annual rate, 3 months ended, overall: -0.2%
Compound annual rate, 3 months ended, core: 2.3%

As usual, the energy index is bumping things around a bit.

 

[Cutlass]

Doesn't excuse the fact that the OP is wrong.

Then start a new thread with a better title.

 

[Integral]

Then start a new thread with a better title.

One recession thread per month. That's been the standard.

Then again, by July, it might really be a depression watch.

 

[mrt144]

One recession thread per month. That's been the standard.

Then again, by July, it might really be a depression watch.

This California budget thing hangs heavy right now. As an employee of a tax dollar funded NGO (Hotel Motel taxes to the State, the state to the Convention Center, Convention Center funding to us) the result of how the shortfall is covered will have implications on our financial security.

 

[innonimatu]

You are pretty much the only person I know who is still predicting that we haven't seen the bottom of this recession.

Count two.