Peak Oil: Can The World Stave Off the Worst Effects?

[The Imp]

I'm not really good at writing OP's, so let me quote the almighty wiki.

"Optimistic estimations of peak production forecast the global decline will begin by 2020 or later, and assume major investments in alternatives will occur before a crisis, without requiring major changes in the lifestyle of heavily oil-consuming nations. These models show the price of oil at first escalating and then retreating as other types of fuel and energy sources are used.[4] Pessimistic predictions of future oil production operate on the thesis that either the peak has already occurred,[5][6][7][8] oil production is on the cusp of the peak, or that it will occur shortly.[9] As proactive mitigation may no longer be an option, a global depression is predicted, perhaps even initiating a chain reaction of the various feedback mechanisms in the global market which might stimulate a collapse of global industrial civilization, potentially leading to large population declines within a short period. Throughout the first two quarters of 2008, there were signs that a global recession was being made worse by a series of record oil prices.[10]"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil


My question is, Do you think the world can avert the worst side effects of peak oil, and if so, how?

At this moment in time, I do not know if it could, considering that it isn't simply cars running on oil, but the entire economy ranging from plastics to fertilizers. Under the optimistic scenario, it would seem that the world would need to implement an alt-energy by around 2020 that takes a significant bite out of our need for oil.

 

[dwaxe]

No. I think that wars will be fought over oil.

 

[LucyDuke]

No. The worst effects are inevitable. There is no way to save automobile culture and sushi in Las Vegas. Renewable energy is simply not cheap enough. Now, we could possibly smooth out the transition, if we were to immediately invest heavily in nuclear power plants and rebuilding our cities and scaling agriculture back to a manageable size. But we won't, because people who'll post in this thread later don't even understand, let alone accept, that petroleum is finite and that no technological innovation is ever going to rewrite the laws of thermodynamics.

 

[JohnRM]

Transportation and energy are only the tip of the 'berg. Even we could develop alternative energy, we'd still be faced with a crisis over how to obtain a substitute for the fertilizers that grow the majority of our food supply, the plastics that keep that food fresh at the market or in your fridge, and the plastics that make modern medicine possible. Thus far, there has been no suggested alternative for that. We are truly blessed with our energy problem. At least there is an expensive energy alternative. We don't even have an expensive alterative to not having plastics or fertilizer. Pretty soon, we're going to be mining landfills for recyclable plastics.

 

[PiMan]

I think some types of plastic can be synthesised from plant based oils, and there are definitely natural fertilisers.

 

[JohnRM]

Right, but can we synthesise enough plastic, cost-effectively to cover our consumption. I think that any rational examination of the reality will reveal that we cannot. Not only would it not prove cost-effective, but it would most likely prove to be impossible.

 

[Cheetah]

We don't even have an expensive alterative to not having plastics or fertilizer. Pretty soon, we're going to be mining landfills for recyclable plastics.

You think only oil is the problem with fertilizers?

Wikipedia on Phosphorus
Note nr. 28

In 2007, at the current rate of consumption, the supply of phosphorus was estimated to run out in 345 years.[27] However, scientists are now claiming that a "Peak Phosphorus" will occur in 30 years and that "At current rates, reserves will be depleted in the next 50 to 100 years."[28]

Considering how extremely dependents we are on artificial fertilizers to feed everyone on this planet right now, this is really going to hurt...

 

[yesboii]

You think only oil is the problem with fertilizers?

Wikipedia on Phosphorus
Note nr. 28

Considering how extremely dependents we are on artificial fertilizers to feed everyone on this planet right now, this is really going to hurt...

Then all we need to do is rid the world of foolish things like toilets and start releasing our feces on the soil. That'll solve everything.

 

[El_Machinae]

Western culture will probably take a hit. Not really due to the peak oil, but due to the price of competition combined with the peak. There're 3 billion more people who're coming into this world over the next 50 years, and there're 2 billion people who're in the process of getting modern jobs. These jobs are going to allow them to buy oil, and they're going to buy it. This will cause more price risings as we race towards peak oil.

The average Westerner does not spend nearly enough of their money preparing to live in a non-oil world. I think they're expecting corporations to provide alternates, and that they're then going to purchase those alternates. But buying a new house with a home heating oil system or a new car these days means that when the alternates are arriving, you're still paying the mortgage on your product that cannot switch.

Most people who deny peak oil don't seem to understand that consumption is increasing, not steady-state. And they also don't seem to recognise that there's an increasing cost to new finds. And finally, that there's not always sufficient wealth in order to buy a product, even if demand is really high.

Conservation programs are currently the best way of squeezing $ out of oil, and it's $ that's going to buy use the alternates.

 

[The Imp]

I think some types of plastic can be synthesised from plant based oils, and there are definitely natural fertilisers.

Urine is one of them. Seriously, peeing on the soil works wonders. I assume nobody will want anything from my garden huh?

Obviously won't solve the problem, but a useful gardening tip.

 

[civ_king]

What about "Farmscrapers" we could grow food in basically skyscrapers and it would VASTLY reduce oil consumption because low amounts food needs to be transported and it would require little if any fertilizer if we have aquaponics in the same tower

 

[The Imp]

What about "Farmscrapers" we could grow food in basically skyscrapers and it would VASTLY reduce oil consumption because low amounts food needs to be transported and it would require little if any fertilizer if we have aquaponics in the same tower

Farmscrapers would need a ton of energy. Think about it, plants need sun, and you would agree with me that once you get a few feet into a building, the sunlight drops dramatically.

 

[civ_king]

Farmscrapers would need a ton of energy. Think about it, plants need sun, and you would agree with me that once you get a few feet into a building, the sunlight drops dramatically.

Solar panels on the roofs of the buildings it would feed and solar windows for all windows too

 

[Chieftess]

I doubt it (probably worse off in big cities), and quite a bit of stuff uses oil or oil byproducts.

Farmscrapers would need a ton of energy. Think about it, plants need sun, and you would agree with me that once you get a few feet into a building, the sunlight drops dramatically.

My idea of "Farmscrapers" would be plants along the sides of buildings, rather than layer upon layer, which could be done by redirecting the light.

 

[kosiosko 1]

I doubt it (probably worse off in big cities), and quite a bit of stuff uses oil or oil byproducts.



My idea of "Farmscrapers" would be plants along the sides of buildings, rather than layer upon layer, which could be done by redirecting the light.

some guys have done that here, hydroponics on a sorta vertical conveyor belt, modular setup ???,
the reasoning, each city area would have its own fresh food farm, no transport from thosands of miles away. It works but so far its only a demonstation setup, actually saves water too. it's meant to go in all them outdated industrial buildings found in the inner cities

 

[Merkinball]

I find it ironic that the same people that bemoan oil and global warming are the same people that bemoan peak oil, the number one thing that will drive us to find clean alternative solutions to all of the associated problems fossil fuels bring.

 

[LucyDuke]

I hate sitting in traffic but I'd still get upset if I ran out of gas and had to walk.

 

[Merkinball]

I hate sitting in traffic but I'd still get upset if I ran out of gas and had to walk.

Sit back and let me snap my fingers so we can be transported to Magicland so we can get our Unobtainium and save the world from fossil fuels!

 

[Earthling]

I find it ironic that the same people that bemoan oil and global warming are the same people that bemoan peak oil, the number one thing that will drive us to find clean alternative solutions to all of the associated problems fossil fuels bring.

Isn't that like saying "I find it ironic that people who care about helping impovershed people in Africa complain about AIDS, since AIDS causes more people and organizations to notice/donate money to Africa?"

 

[GenMarshall]

Peak Oil is nothing but a bunch of pessimistic doomsday conspiracy.