Player stats, sales, and reception speculation thread

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That article is very interesting... quotes:

Rather than moving between stately eras, a Civilization VII campaign is divided into three ages (Antiquity, Exploration and Modern) that all start by presenting you with a fresh selection of civilisations to choose from. It’s a massive alteration to the flow of the game – history is now built of distinct layers – and Beach admits that there were times when the team were not sure it would work. He was adamant it was worth trying, though, because the data had long suggested a fundamental problem with Civilization: people rarely finished a campaign. “The number-one issue that the ages system solves for us is it helps you get towards the end of a game,” he says, “and not feel like you’re overwhelmed with too many things to manage, too many.

(...)

As members of the design and QA team continue to test the game daily, he adds, “I’m getting so many more reports of people playing all the way to finishing a game, and having an interesting conclusion.” In other words, ages address an underlying problem with 4X games: the first two Xs, explore and expand, are more compelling than the final two, exploit and exterminate. Why? There’s more potential and less bureaucracy early on, and you’re making consequential decisions more regularly as a result. In the ages system, then, transition points are a means to make adjustments along the way, by reducing the complexity and number of things to manage, so the first 20 to 30 turns of a new age feel like a period of reset. “The tension in the world has drained out,” Beach says, “and you’re just building back up again.” Ages always end with a crisis event, giving each part of the game its own shape and momentum. Even so, Beach promises, to make sure these transitions don’t rob players of things they enjoy – an army that’s constructed with precision, say – the team has done more playtesting for Civilization VII than it did on previous games.

This statement tells you a lot about what went so horribly wrong with this game.

They knew what the core identity of the game was, and dumpstered it anyway, because Ed Beach was adamant.

They were trying to solve a problem that didn’t need solving, late game fatigue, and didn’t actually solve it at all. Their “solution” was essentially to hit the restart button whether the player wanted it or not. How dare the player not finish my game, that’ll teach em.

The hilarious disconnect between your QA team’s reaction to this mechanic and the actual playerbase’s reaction indicates the QA team clearly suffered system capture and no longer functions as a viable barometer for that.

One has to wonder who Beach was talking to. We should all be too familiar with this sort of bias because management tends to surround themselves with yes men/women and anyone who disagrees, is seen as noise or nuisance.
I agree though that in Civ, Gandhi is sort of known as the 'peaceful' nuker. However, not many who talked about Gandhi or Gilgamesh, thought of them detached from their civilizations. I don't think many players like Gandhi of the Mayans.

It’s been clear for a long time that the QA team has issues. Either the job isn’t getting done or their feedback is ignored

I still can’t believe the “AI science typo” happened, or that it took such a stupidly long time to fix.

I think the issue is

the Other player are identified best by their Leader

My identification is best with the Civ.

That said I think civ switching instead of leader switching was the right call… However, they should have done a lot more work on that identification issue (allow you to control the name/graphics separately from uniques or had semigeneric bonuses available for playing out of main age, etc.)

Cosmetics are’nt the problem, and will not solve it

The era reset/civ switching ruins the game for sandbox emergant narrative player, and they are clearly a large part of the base.


Kind of sounds like Ed Beach has a lot of confirmation bias going on.

It explains a lot


I think they need to go back to the formula that worked for decades. No switching of anything, Leaders belong to their Civs

The changes and improvements need to come from somewhere else, town and cities and navigable rivers are examples. I think naval combat can be improved a lot for example, diplomacy took a step back in Civ VII, that can be improved a lot too

If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Why the hell is post naughts management so obssessed with MASSIVE PARADIGM SHIFTING HUGE RETURNS as opposed to nice sustainable profitability
 
It is not about the data. It is what conclusions you draw from that data.

In Civ 7, antiquity is often cited as the best era and some dont even progress to the next era.

Possible conclusions:
  • "Our players love antiquity. They dont want other eras."
  • "Our players love antiquity. Antiquity should last forever, to 2000 AD. They obviously want that."
  • "Our players love antiquity. Lets have 3x antiquity minigames. The winner is decided in the last game."
Like, the thought of a train can go completely to the wrong direction and QA could deliver excellent feedback...
How do we determine if the train of thought has gone wrong before the game is even released?

Some people might have disliked the direction of VII since before release, but taking CFC as a demographic, a lot of opinions were "let's wait and see".

If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Why the hell is post naughts management so obssessed with MASSIVE PARADIGM SHIFTING HUGE RETURNS as opposed to nice sustainable profitability
Significant design shifts are actually generally not seen as profitable. They're seen as risky.

"if it ain't broke don't fix it" is how we get yearly CoD releases (that effectively print money). Is that the road Civ should go down?

And if it does, is VII the iteration Civ stops changing significantly at?
 
It’s the leaders, after all, that really count for Civilization players. Among fans, Beach explains, discussion of most hated opponents and most favoured allies always comes back to the individuals in charge. “The fact that Gilgamesh turned into Gilgabro in our fan community because everyone loved having him as their ally, and that the memes and cartoon art were always about the leaders? It became very clear that the identity of the other competing players is always the leader.”

Also, memes as statistical data points for evidence based decisions?!?

The existence of memes as an indicator of community consensus (of something positive or negative) has been a long-studied thing. Why do things become memes? Because they resonate.

I think that Gorbles is right, that memes can stand as an "indicator of community consensus." It is not, as OurBall says, statistical evidence. And moreover (as I have argued before), the designers misinterpreted what this bit of evidence means. In the game Civilization, the player's activity is building a civilization: founding cities, building "buildings" in those cities, developing resources within one's territory, enhancing that civilization's capacity for making technological progress, developing its social and governmental systems, developing its religion, building its military etc. Doing so involves managing complex and interrelated sub-systems, and the result of doing so is the feeling that your civilization is getting territorially larger and also more complex in terms of its economy, social systems, etc. That is the business that the game gives the player to do. It may not be how you "identify," but it's your intense focus.

In interacting with the other civilizations, it is true, players tend to talk about their leaders. That is for several reasons. The most important reason is that civilizations are complex entities, and so we need a kind of shorthand for synthesizing all that is going on in the rival civilizations. It can be a fun game challenge for me to hook up a road between two of my cities* (prioritize workers doing that over some other activity they might be engaged in, coordinate that with all of the other activities I am doing to build my civ, enjoy the increased $ for doing so, enjoy being able to move my troops more quickly). But when I deal with a rival civ, I don't want to be thinking about its road system (and all of the other sub-systems that make it up as a civilization); that would be mind-boggling. I want one focused representation of that civilization. In rhetorical terms, this is the figure of thought called synecdoche: the part standing for the whole.**

And of course I pick a human being as the thing that is going to provide the "face" of that civilization. Our minds favor human beings as the representations of agency (and the rival civs have the agency of being able to declare war on you, being able to trade with you, etc.) We are irrepressibly anthropocentric. We see a human face in the crater-shadows on the moon's surface. Most memes (the "why not both?" girl, Captain America "I understood that reference," the thousand-yard stare soldier) do feature a human face. What that reveals is something about how our minds work generally, rather than any particularly useful information about the Civ franchise.

So my basic position is like what Krikkit1 spells out:

I think the issue is

the Other player are identified best by their Leader

My identification is best with the Civ.

The designers' misinterpretation of player habits of speech lies in two things 1) assigning more meaning to the fact that players describe the rival civs in terms of their leaders (as I said, this is natural for us to do and not indicative of any special significance), and 2) not remembering that the central business that the game gives players is developing a civilization. There are some games, like an RPG that more centrally focus on developing a person (the stats of your avatar). But civ does not. (I mean, Civ 7 tried to provide this in the leaders' development trees, but fundamentally, as a franchise, Civ does not.)

So player memes are a potentially useful data-point. But as always, the trick lies in how one interprets data. They made a crucial and costly mistake in their interpretation of that data.

(By the way, I will happily acknowledge that this is easier to observe after the fact than it was for them when they were making game design decisions.)

The mistake regarding the end-game is different, and probably trickier. I'll probably devote a separate post to that.


*Civ V is, as always, my reference point

**the game uses synecdoche in other places, by the way. Buildings, for example. My city of 36 million has a public school? No, it has a public-school system. Do I, as a player, want to individually build every school building in that system? No, of course not. My civilization gains a benefit (in science/turn) for me devoting production to that particular thing, a public-school system. But it images it to me in something concrete and tangible: a public school.
 
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How do we determine if the train of thought has gone wrong before the game is even released?

Some people might have disliked the direction of VII since before release, but taking CFC as a demographic, a lot of opinions were "let's wait and see".


Significant design shifts are actually generally not seen as profitable. They're seen as risky.

"if it ain't broke don't fix it" is how we get yearly CoD releases (that effectively print money). Is that the road Civ should go down?

And if it does, is VII the iteration Civ stops changing significantly at?

Just about every version of Civ aftet 2 DID have extremely significant, often controversial design shifts.

Civ3 introduced Strategic Resources and culture flipping. I think it was also where Civilization and Leader bonuses started.

Civ4 introduced a ton of mechanical complexity.

Civ5 introduced City States, Hexagons and 1 UPT

Civ6 unpacked cities into districts and a focus on playing the map.

All of these were huge, HUGE design shifts. They didn’t tank the franchise because the game was still Civ. You still Built An Empire To Stand The Test Of Time.

Trying to compare this to “turn the crank” is flat out wrong.

As far as CoD goes, I stopped playing at Blops 2, but I seem to remember there being significant changes between versions prior to that.
 
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How do we determine if the train of thought has gone wrong before the game is even released?
The designers have to figure it out. They almost figured it out, as Beach admitted, "the team were not sure it would work".
 
Ok, now my 2 cents on end-game fatigue

Ed Beach: As members of the design and QA team continue to test the game daily, he adds, “I’m getting so many more reports of people playing all the way to finishing a game, and having an interesting conclusion.” In other words, ages address an underlying problem with 4X games: the first two Xs, explore and expand, are more compelling than the final two, exploit and exterminate. Why? There’s more potential and less bureaucracy early on, and you’re making consequential decisions more regularly as a result.

In my view there is a small problem and a big problem here. The small problem is that the design and QA team are just going to play to the end of a game. That's their job. They wouldn't be doing their job if they quit whenever they felt they had the game wrapped up (or had no hope of winning). They need to check out all elements of the game, through the late game, to make sure they work. In place of QA, you would need something almost like the "devil's advocate" in the Catholic Church's canonization process: someone whose role it is to take a hostile view. To play the game skeptically (rather than responsibly, as QA must). And then to listen to that person.

The big problem (and again this has been said many times before by myself and others) is that the early game just is more consequential. This is constitutionally so. There's nothing one can do to make it not the case. Good (or bad) decisions made early on "snowball."

What this means is that designers of 4x games are just going to have to resign themselves to the fact that the late game will be played less. Is that a huge frustration: to put efforts into the graphics of late-game units and the balance of late-game buildings, all the specifics of victory conditions, and then have players rarely reach the stage of the game where they appreciate all of that care? Yes. I'm sure it's a huge frustration. But it's just one that designers of such games have to resign themselves to. There's no "fixing" it that doesn't come at the expense of making players think their careful early-game play (their playing the game the way the game challenges one to play it) is being arbitrarily negated. Moreover, the stuff all has to be in there. The game does have to be complete, to play out fully to whatever is its end. You can't skimp with the late-game material. Because sometimes players do play all the way to the end, and they'll notice if you've shortchanged them. Build it. Know that it plays its role in the totality of the game. But then shrug that it will see less play. Designers of lots of things have to resign themselves to certain portions of their design being less directly appreciated than others.
 
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Ed Beach & Co claimed before the launch of Civ 7 that they had supposedly looked at and analyzed player data from Civ 6 in detail, and based key decisions, like civ switching, on that.
Do you have an actual quote or citation? As far as I know, that pre-Civ7 data was about players not finishing games and had nothing to do with civ-switching.
 
Do you have an actual quote or citation? As far as I know, that pre-Civ7 data was about players not finishing games and had nothing to do with civ-switching.
Firaxis mentioned that one of the main reasons they came up with the Ages system was because a lot of players weren’t finishing their games (source: https://www.gamedeveloper.com/desig...incing-players-to-actually-finish-their-games). From there, they had two options: Either implement Leader Switching or Civ Switching. They went with the latter, apparently because, as Ed Beach put it, "it's the leader that really counts for Civ players." (you can check out itx's postings for that matter). Of course, they didn’t offer any evidence for that claim, so from my perspective, it mostly came down to wishful thinking on Ed Beach’s part.
 
Firaxis mentioned that one of the main reasons they came up with the Ages system was because a lot of players weren’t finishing their games (source: https://www.gamedeveloper.com/desig...incing-players-to-actually-finish-their-games). From there, they had two options: Either implement Leader Switching or Civ Switching. They went with the latter, apparently because, as Ed Beach put it, "it's the leader that really counts for Civ players." (you can check out itx's postings for that matter). Of course, they didn’t offer any evidence for that claim, so from my perspective, it mostly came down to wishful thinking on Ed Beach’s part.
Civ and leader switching are not mentioned in the article at all. As I suspected, it was all about the ages system and trying to get more players to finish games.
 
Civ and leader switching are not mentioned in the article at all. As I suspected, it was all about the ages system and trying to get more players to finish games.
That's just nitpicking, just look at itix's postings, it is obvious, that they were referring to some kind of user feedback for their Civ Switching desicion.
 
Just for the note. This thread is kind of informational bubble, but if I remember correctly, based on polls, even on this forum the majority of users are ok with civilization switching or even like it. And I assume people who are not as old as we are and with less roots in previous Civ games, should be totally fine with this idea. It also to some degree describes other "Firaxis didn't know what fans want" points - "fans" here could be quite limited selection.

P.S. I know about Civ7 ratings and I know many people attribute this negativity solely to the part of the game they individually dislike. This was discussed already.
 
Just for the note. This thread is kind of informational bubble, but if I remember correctly, based on polls, even on this forum the majority of users are ok with civilization switching or even like it. And I assume people who are not as old as we are and with less roots in previous Civ games, should be totally fine with this idea. It also to some degree describes other "Firaxis didn't know what fans want" points - "fans" here could be quite limited selection.
Even in your own poll, only 45% liked or partly liked Civ Switching, so you are clearly not correct here (https://forums.civfanatics.com/threads/whats-your-opinion-on-civ-switching.699056/). Furthermore, your assumption that younger players are "totally fine with this idea" is, again, just a statement without any evidence and sounds more like wishful thinking, similar to what Ed Beach likes to do.
 
That's just nitpicking, just look at itix's postings, it is obvious, that they were referring to some kind of user feedback for their Civ Switching desicion.
How is it nitpicking when a source you're referencing literally does not say what you claimed it says?

As for the other posts you asked me to look at, it doesn't seem like it was in-game data that was being referenced.
 
Just for the note. This thread is kind of informational bubble, but if I remember correctly, based on polls, even on this forum the majority of users are ok with civilization switching or even like it. And I assume people who are not as old as we are and with less roots in previous Civ games, should be totally fine with this idea. It also to some degree describes other "Firaxis didn't know what fans want" points - "fans" here could be quite limited selection.

P.S. I know about Civ7 ratings and I know many people attribute this negativity solely to the part of the game they individually dislike. This was discussed already.

Polls on this forum are hardly an accurate sample of the market, it’s literally in the name of the forum.

Your best indicator as to what the actual playerbase thinks is going to be reviews and sales, and THAT cannot be ignored or dissmissed, as much as you clearly want to.
 
Polls on this forum are hardly an accurate sample of the market, it’s literally in the name of the forum.

Your best indicator as to what the actual playerbase thinks is going to be reviews and sales, and THAT cannot be ignored or dissmissed, as much as you clearly want to.
Yes, I totally agree with this. And as was said multiple times, based on reviews, the main complains about Civ7 were UI, bugs, price and incomplete state.

EDIT: And, of course, as noted before, all this data come after the game was released. There's no guaranteed way to predict wide player reaction when designing those features. Especially if you settle on those features 5 years before release and even the audience is different.
 
All of these were huge, HUGE design shifts. They didn’t tank the franchise because the game was still Civ. You still Built An Empire To Stand The Test Of Time.
You were talking about management being obsessed with huge returns, I was answering about that. What Firaxis chooses to do with their design mandate is related, but it wasn't really relevant to the questions I asked.

2K chasing huge returns is going to be significantly upstream of any choice Firaxis makes.

The designers have to figure it out. They almost figured it out, as Beach admitted, "the team were not sure it would work".
Again, figuring something out with hindsight is not figuring it out ahead of time.

Some moves are risky. I don't see how you can get around that risk. Some folks here seem to think everything is solvable and good releases are guaranteed if you just do something better. There are a lot of comments about confirmation bias, misreading or cherry-picking of data, and son on. But I don't see much about how it would be done better. Lots of generalisations and the like. But folks (currently active in the discussion) don't seem to actually have much domain experience? And I barely do! My involvement in video games comes from a community-focused role in some unrelated RTS games.

Lots of things are malleable during the development of most video games. Lots of things can be uncertain. It isn't evidence that anything wouldn't work out, nor evidence the developers almost stumbled upon some kind of realisation that this would be the case.

I keep asking: how do we figure that out, before a game is released. If we're the people making the game. Go for it!
 
How is it nitpicking when a source you're referencing literally does not say what you claimed it says?

As for the other posts you asked me to look at, it doesn't seem like it was in-game data that was being referenced.
Ed Beach stated: "It's the leader that really counts for Civ players." I'm not exactly sure how he came to that conclusion. Maybe it was based on some misinterpreted player data, or maybe someone just mentioned it to him over lunch, I don't know. And honestly, that doesn't really matter. What does matter is that Firaxis clearly misjudged their community, and that's how we ended up with this mess. Therefore it makes sense for them, to get in touch with the community more, like reading these threads in this very forum. Not sure what's so hard to understand about that?
 
Ed Beach stated: "It's the leader that really counts for Civ players." I'm not exactly sure how he came to that conclusion.

Features like civ-switching and disconnected leaders seem primarily designed to drive DLC sales. Claims like this often come off as mere justifications.

"Present a marketable feature, and I’ll craft a justification for its implementation."
 
Ok, now my 2 cents on end-game fatigue




In my view there is a small problem and a big problem here. The small problem is that the design and QA team are just going to play to the end of a game. That's their job. They wouldn't be doing their job if they quit whenever they felt they had the game wrapped up (or had no hope of winning). They need to check out all elements of the game, through the late game, to make sure they work. In place of QA, you would need something almost like the "devil's advocate" in the Catholic Church's canonization process: someone whose role it is to take a hostile view. To play the game skeptically (rather than responsibly, as QA must). And then to listen to that person.

The big problem (and again this has been said many times before by myself and others) is that the early game just is more consequential. This is constitutionally so. There's nothing one can do to make it not the case. Good (or bad) decisions made early on "snowball."

What this means is that designers of 4x games are just going to have to resign themselves to the fact that the late game will be played less. Is that a huge frustration: to put efforts into the graphics of late-game units and the balance of late-game buildings, all the specifics of victory conditions, and then have players rarely reach the stage of the game where they appreciate all of that care? Yes. I'm sure it's a huge frustration. But it's just one that designers of such games have to resign themselves to. There's no "fixing" it that doesn't come at the expense of making players think their careful early-game play (their playing the game the way the game challenges one to play it) is being arbitrarily negated. Moreover, the stuff all has to be in there. The game does have to be complete, to play out fully to whatever is its end. You can't skimp with the late-game material. Because sometimes players do play all the way to the end, and they'll notice if you've shortchanged them. Build it. Know that it plays its role in the totality of the game, but then shrug that it will see less play. Designers of lots of things have to resign themselves to certain portions of their design being less directly appreciated than others.
The only way I could see a late-game of consequence is if there was some kind of US/USSR-style superpowers that emerge in a final age/era to challenge the player
 
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