Possible coup in Turkey

[luiz]

US and EU urge the sultan to show some restraint in his vengeance:

“We urge the government of Turkey to uphold the highest standard of respect . . . for the rule of law,” Mr Kerry said after meeting his EU counterparts in Brussels on Monday. “We support bringing the perpetrators of the coup to justice, but we caution a reach that goes beyond that.”
Some EU leaders went even further. The European Commission official responsible for Turkey policy accused the Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan of having a prepared list of targets for arrest even before the coup was launched.
“It looks at least as if something has been prepared,” said Johannes Hahn, the EU commissioner in charge of Turkey ‘s EU membership bid. “The lists are available, which indicates it was prepared and to be used at a certain stage. I’m very concerned. It is exactly what we feared.”
The expressions of concern in Washington and Brussels came as the number of officials and soldiers arrested by Mr Erdogan’s allies continued to rise. Binali Yildirim, the president’s handpicked prime minister, announced on Monday that there were now 7,543 people being detained, including 6,138 from the military, 755 prosecutors and 650 civilians.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b82ef35a-4cc3-11e6-88c5-db83e98a590a.html#axzz4ElbvqoVC

 

[Lillefix]

Is this in addition to the 8000 policemen and 2700 judges who have been fired?

 

[Mouthwash]

I arrived too late at the thread. My personal observations are the following (and they've probably already been made).

-While this was no false flag operation, it's beyond obvious that Erdogan is using it as an excuse to consolidate his sultanate. His sole demonstrated concern is to purge the army, Parliament, Justice and even the media, not to reconcile the country. Now he wants to bring back the death penalty, because he is not even bothering to hide his vengeful despotism.

This is well worth reading:

Books have been written on how to stage a coup d’état. The basic rule is simple. Do it suddenly and with maximum surprise. If information leaks that you are planning a coup, you are likely to be arrested and shot. To avoid that, you must invent a reason why masses of tanks are going toward the capital, air force planes are preparing for missions and the leaves of soldiers are being cancelled. The reason of choice is that you — the senior officer who thought this up — ordered a surprise exercise to test the readiness of forces. If you are not senior enough to have the authority to plan such an exercise, you probably shouldn’t be planning a coup in the first place.

Having resolved to carry out the coup, lay out the plan and share it with as few people as possible who are loyal to you (good luck). Then, remember why it is called a coup. It is a sudden blow designed to overwhelm the sitting government. The first goal is to capture communication channels and shut them down. You need to get to the systems that permit phone calls. This used to be the telephone exchange but it has gotten more complicated. You should also take down all social media. Seize all TV and radio stations and place your own personnel in them. Having done that, seize all significant government buildings — but if you control communication channels, these buildings are as useful as warehouses.

The leaders — the president, senior defense officials, whatever ministry controls internal security and police function and so on – must be seized fast. Ideally, you should seize them on a weekend night and pick them up at home. If you plan to use some of these officials, then say it is for their protection.

The coup in Turkey started unfolding on late Friday night local time, the fashionable time for coups. There had not been even a hint of a coup in the public domain, so unless President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s security forces had been tipped, that part had worked. A few hours after the initial reports of tanks and low-flying F-16s in Istanbul as well as fighting in Ankara, the coup seemed to have slowed down markedly. There were still tanks in the streets, but the media was functioning and social media, which had been shut down in the first hours, suddenly resumed.

Most important, there was no report that Erdoğan was in custody. That struck us as odd because his location was well known. He was at the Mares Hotel in Marmaris. If we knew it, everyone knew it. He wasn’t hiding. We assumed that a hand-picked team was coming in on helicopters to take him into custody. Since coup plotters don’t provide play-by-play on their plans, we just assumed that was one of the first things done.

Finally, we heard two things that struck us and indicated the people staging the coup were in control. First, media outlets started going off the air. Turkish state broadcaster TRT was seized and its announcers were forced to read a statement prepared by coup supporters before being taken off the air. The newspaper Hürriyet also reported being seized and the staff were held as hostages. Second, and more important, the requisite proclamation of a ruling committee and a regime dedicated to secularism was transmitted on the seized stations. In the meantime, communications were locked down, we had to assume Erdoğan was detained and we were sure potential opponents had been captured. It seemed to us that the coup was heading to success.

Then, the bizarre happened. Erdoğan gave an interview to CNN Türk, which coup supporters had not succeeded in taking off the air (they did so only after the tide had turned against them). Indicating that all I learned about coups may not still be in place, he gave an interview through FaceTime using an iPhone. The president had not been arrested, the media outlets were not all under control and Erdoğan was speaking to the country. The assumption that the coup was successful came smashing down.

The question then was: how did the people staging a coup not coordinate taking all of the various stations at the same time? How could they not have arrested Erdoğan? How come all this was going on while there was no sign of armor loyal to Erdoğan fighting armor that was disloyal? If there was a countercoup underway, how come in one of the largest and most populous cities in the world, Istanbul, the coup forces were reported, but not the countercoup? Although there was some fighting in Ankara, where a helicopter kept firing at the parliament building, a failed coup usually involves a grim confrontation.

Not in passing, we had considered these questions from the beginning. Turkey has capable domestic and foreign intelligence, as well as military intelligence, and Erdoğan undoubtedly has his own network of loyalists. Given this, how was it possible to organize the coup without being detected? Erdoğan has always been aware of the threat posed by the military and in fact had previously arrested some military personnel for planning a coup. He is not careless. Unlike many countries, Turkey has professional and seemingly loyal intelligence services. How could the planners of the coup not have been detected? The best explanation we had (though it was pure speculation) was that the senior intelligence people were in on the coup.

The coup didn’t seem to end nearly as much as it petered out. At one moment, proclamations were being read on the air and at the next moment soldiers deployed in Taksim Square — the main square in Istanbul — were surrendering to police. Then, Erdoğan appeared again, now in Istanbul, calling on the people to pour into the streets to defend the government and also declaring that Fethullah Gülen, a Turkish Islamic scholar living in Saylorsburg, Pennsylvania, had planned the coup. Erdoğan demanded the U.S. extradite him.

Following this, Erdoğan ordered the arrests of thousands of people. Arresting people after a failed coup is to be expected. But the list of people arrested – including Erdoğan’s top military aide Col. Ali Yazici – was so extensive that it is difficult to understand how Erdoğan’s staff could draw up the list so quickly. It is as if the list was already drawn up and ready to go.

There are three possible explanations. The first is that the people staging the coup were completely incompetent. True, carrying out a coup is a lost art. But recognizing the need to arrest the president doesn’t take a great deal of experience. They left Istanbul wide open to Erdoğan, and Erdoğan took advantage.

The second possibility is that the coup had been penetrated early on, that the president was under heavy trusted guard and that each step had been anticipated and dealt with by Erdoğan’s team, fully alerted to what was going on. The arrest list was drawn up because Erdoğan had the names of the people involved. In other words, Erdoğan knew about it and let it move ahead to failure to get a clear picture of who was involved and to justify a crackdown.

The third possibility, already being tossed about in the media, is that he staged the coup himself and orchestrated the appearance of a failure to give himself an excuse to purge the military and intelligence organizations. This also gave him an opportunity to create a confrontation with the U.S., which needs Turkey, over Gülen’s fate. He accused the U.S. of at least passive complicity by way of alleging Gülen orchestrated the coup.

I don’t know which is the correct scenario and there may be a fourth and fifth possibility. But this is clear. For whatever reasons, the coup looked like the most incompetent undertaking imaginable. Erdoğan has emerged stronger than ever and can now arrest anyone he wants on charges of treason.

There's even more evidence that he didn't mention: rebel jets had Erdogan's plane in their sights, but didn't fire. Those same rebels didn't hold back on bombing parliament.

 

[Kyriakos]

 

[Zkribbler]

This is well worth reading:

True dat.

 

[muhtesem insan]

There are some more details on why the coup failed.
Coup planners couldn't get the army (which consists of 65% of turkish military personal) to join so they decided to use gendarmerie instead. But in large cities like Ankara and Istanbul number of gendarmerie staff is limited so the decided to get some 5000+ commandos from southeastern Turkey. But government get news beforehand and prevented these from coming. So they had to start the coup with limited boots on the ground mostly depending on air superiority.
And there are some reports that actually coup planes found and locked on erdoğan's plane but did not fire. It is currently unknown why they did not fire.

 

[Zkribbler]

Is this in addition to the 8000 policemen and 2700 judges who have been fired?

Turkey must have the fastest typists in the world to put together lists this long in the short time since the coup.

 

[Hakan-i Cihan]

Turkey must have the fastest typists in the world to put together lists this long in the short time since the coup.

Remember that the coup plotters did communicate (whatsapp, phonecalls, mail etc) for organizing. They had prepared a list of 400 generals and other officers who would be in command for each district during martial law. To succeed the coup they needed to be organized and for this police and judges were required after overthrowing the government. Cooperating judges were required in tribunals for trying the president, ministers and other people in the government. Cooperating police for keeping the streets in control. Lots of data was found from the coup plotters which they tried to destroy (mostly without luck). So it wouldn't be very difficult to make a list if plotters already provide you one.
Also the 8000 policemen and 2700 judges are suspended until it is clear if they had a role in the coup or not. From those they are suspicous of being part of the coup will be trialed and after trials it will be clear if they will or will not be removed from duty. These numbers seems a lot but if you consider that there are 230 000 policemen, then it is relatively not much.

 

[Hakan-i Cihan]

Spoiler :

The real photo is this one:

And you should take your prime minister as example:

 

[luiz]

And the world still awaits any evidence that Güllen was behind the attempted coup...

More and more pundits (and I don't mean of the tinfoil hat kind) are openly suggesting that even if this was not a false flag op, Erdogan probably had prior knowledge and allowed it to unfold so he could purge all opposition and consolidate his despotism.

 

[Hakan-i Cihan]

5) AKP used mosques to mobilize its supporters. They played call to prayer with a special call which we call Sala in turkey till morning continously, apparently that meant call for Jihad. Also some imams used mosque speakers to call people to get out and resist.

Really??? Ok I can understand that if you have nothing with religion, but at least do some research if you say things you don't know anything about. First sela is given in 3 different occasions:

• 1 hour before friday prayer to remember about it in every mosque,
• if there is someone dead in one particular mosque of the neighborhood where the prayer will done for the dead
• call for unity

That last occassion was the case during the coup attempt. So for your information it has nothing to do with Jihad. It was a call for unity!

6) Overwhelming majority of military was not involved in coup attempt but they were not mobilized to crush the attempt also. I am not sure if this were a concious decision by government or they just didn't react to see which side will prevail. (If it is the former i think it's unexpectedly rational and smart decision by erdoğan)

One of the major reasons why the military did not mobilize was that the highest commander were either taken hostage or were part of the coup. The Chief of the General Staff, Commanders of the Army, Gendarmerie and air force were taken hostage. The commanders of 2nd and 3rd army were at the side of the coup plotters.

7) According to Mayor of Ankara (which can not be trusted in any matter) Social Media outage at the begining of the attempt was implemented by government but he advised to lift it so people can get organised.

Please provide source. Besides you are not giving any arguments why someone is to be trusted or not. That is really convincing.

8) Related to previous point, the coup did not seize the TİB(Presidency of Telecommunication, Communication) which controls all telecommunication of Turkey. Which is the most stupid decision they could make.

The plotters did require means to communicate to people that they had overthrowed the government. So they required it. Thats why they occupied the state television in the first place, remember. Also they used whatsapp to communicate with each others.

9) I had a gut feeling that there is preparation for a coup in Turkey for a while and i belive this is not it. So I still expect a coup d'état in turkey in the coming months but this time a proper one.

You clearly are hoping for a coup. I mean why would someone expect a coup d'etat, and a proper one? This does sound that you would like a military regime or something... Weird...

 

[Lillefix]

You clearly are hoping for a coup. I mean why would someone expect a coup d'etat, and a proper one? This does sound that you would like a military regime or something... Weird...

They do seem to have a little more respect for the consitution than Erdogan has.

 

[Hakan-i Cihan]

They do seem to have a little more respect for the consitution than Erdogan has.

Considering you make such a comment you seem to be aware of the turkish constitution and the part Erdogan violates. Please enlghten us.
As for a coup d'etat it is high treason and is one of the highest crimes in Turkish law. I don't think it is much different in most other countries.

 

[luiz]

Just being mildly critical of Sultan Erdogan the Magnificent is treason now.

 

[Hakan-i Cihan]

Just being mildly critical of Sultan Erdogan the Magnificent is treason now.

I am talking about attempting for a coup d'etat. That is high treason. When military helicopters open fire on defenceless people it doesn't make it even better.

 

[luiz]

I am talking about attempting for a coup d'etat. That is high treason. When military helicopters open fire on defenceless people it doesn't make it even better.

You seem to avoiding my questions though. Please enlighten us which part of the constitution does Erdogan violate according to you.

Besides if what you say is either true or false, it is either fact or a lie, not critisism. So you should check the definition of critisism.

You are confusing me with Lilliflex. But yeah, it's no mystery Erdogan doesn't give a crap about the Constitution, and wants to change it in order to have unchecked imperial powers. It's also no mystery that since much before the attempted coup Ergodan has been rounding up the opposition, and is not exactly tolerant of dissent.

Turkey is descending into Islamist autocracy, and that is obvious to the whole world now. Why do you think the whole planet became so critical of the Sultan? Some vast Jewish conspiracy?

 

[luiz]

And now the Sultan is blaming Güllen for the shooting of that Russian fighter!

It's official, Güllen is Erdogan's Goldstein.

 

[Inhalaattori]

At this point it is clear that this was planned by Erdogan long time ago. To me it seems that he knew about the coup attempt beforehand. The number of people fired, detained etc. are just so massive. He is dictator at the moment. What happens next is the big question.

 

[red_elk]

Erdogan proposes to reinstate death penalty:

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said he is ready to reinstate the death penalty if the Turkish people demand it and parliament approves the necessary legislation.

Erdogan spoke early on Tuesday to thousands of supporters outside his Istanbul residence who were chanting for Turkey to restore capital punishment following the failed coup.

"Today, is there no capital punishment in America? In Russia? In China? In countries around the world? Only in European Union countries is there no capital punishment," Erdogan said.

The president added Turkey is "a democratic state run by rule of law", and "you cannot put aside the people's demands".

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/...-reinstate-death-penalty-160719015923935.html

Well, to be precise, in Russia there is no death penalty, but whatever.

 

[Phrossack]

And now Erdogan is pushing to bring back the death penalty.

Good luck, Turkey. You're going to need it.