Using your calculation, you would lose your swordsman 50% of the time, the horseman 33%...per battle (Vet v Regular Spear). Additionally, a horseman can move twice as fast as a swordsman.....good for getting out of trouble & getting to the battleground. It looks like the odds of surviving to win 1 or 2 battles is about even (for promotion prospects)?Your attackers should always be veterans. Early in the game the AI will only have regulars. A vet sword against a spear fortified on grass will win about 50% of the time. For a horse, it's about 1/3, 1/3, 1/3 (win/lose/retreat)...
Anyways, it still looks like a no-brainer comparison to me, given the movement points!? Am I right?

