Rand says China could potentially defeat U.S. in war over Taiwan

[Winner]

They would win air superiority through sheer numbers and with that comes the ability to clean the seas of the enemy. Naval superiority over such short ranges is not necessary if you have air superiority, as they would.

How could they win air superiority?

Even if Japan stayed neutral, which is very likely, China would have to destroy the combined Taiwanese-US airforce.

That's not possible. Most of Chinese fighters are old Russian Mig-21's, even Mig-19's (utterly obsolete). Yes, they plan to build more of their new J-10's and they plan to buy some new fighters from Russia, but in the near future (10 years), they won't have anything what could pose a seriouse threat to the US-Taiwanese air forces.

You know, in such situations, numbers don't matter. You can have 20 Mig-21's against one F-22 or Eurofighter and they won't shoot it down. This is not Civ, spearmans don't beat tanks in the real world. You can have hundreds of obsolete fighters but it won't do any good against handful of hi-tech fighters.

 

[MobBoss]

Ah, I was wondering how long it would take OT's resident jingoist to show up.

Right off the bat you toss the insult. Nice way to open a debate. Apparently you have already recognized you will lose....again.

Apparently MobBoss doesn't realize that much of the Chinese military is permanently arrayed across the straits of Formosa. Why do you think all cross strait air travel has to fly through Hong Kong?

Proof please. Define 'much of'. I certainly dont see any reference to an abundance of military bases in this description. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fujian

Anyway, the concept of 'access denial' isnt anything new. Here is a naval war college review paper over 10 years old that talks about that very thing: http://www.nwc.navy.mil/press/Review/1999/summer/art1-su9.htm

So, in essence, the Naval War College has been studing the issue for over 10 years while the RAND corp just now comes to this conclusion? Hehe. Ok. For some reason, I am comforted that we have been aware of the situation for quite some time and have studied it very well.

Anyway, count me in the camp of it would be a grave error for the Chinese to attempt an invasion of Taiwan. I, for one, think they would get hurt..and get hurt bad.

 

[Winner]

Anyway, RAND has a point. There are strategies that could prevent the US to actually use its superior force against China. It would be foolish to think it is impossible.

China knows it is currently not able to fight with the Western forces and win without using nuclear weapons (tactical nukes would be extremely effective against the US carrier groups). That's why China seeks modern technologies - that's why it co-operates with Pakistan (which has been supplied with US weapons in the past), Israel (see that irony?), Russia and that's why it wanted the EU to lift its arms embargo on China (hi-tech European weapons would dramatically change the balance of power in the East Asia).

 

[MobBoss]

Anyway, RAND has a point. There are strategies that could prevent the US to actually use its superior force against China. It would be foolish to think it is impossible.

China knows it is currently not able to fight with the Western forces and win without using nuclear weapons (tactical nukes would be extremely effective against the US carrier groups). That's why China seeks modern technologies - that's why it co-operates with Pakistan (which has been supplied with US weapons in the past), Israel (see that irony?), Russia and that's why it wanted the EU to lift its arms embargo on China (hi-tech European weapons would dramatically change the balance of power in the East Asia).

However, the RAND report and the 10 year old report I linked also indicate the counter to this....military buildup of Japan and surrounding nations. Japan is very well aware of Chinas aims and goals and they will not sit quietly for them. For the first time since WWII Japan sent military forces out of its country to support a military action.....in Iraq of all places. That wasnt by accident. The other nation-states of the SW pacific are growing as well, and Chinese agressiveness pushes those nations straight to the USA for support.

 

[Stylesjl]

Why would the USA give up and go home if Taiwan is overrun? The USA is the most powerful military on Earth, any nation that stands up to their military will have its head metaphorically smashed in. It matters not wether they hurt the US, the point is any fight with the USA can only be won if the USA wants it to happen.

The Chinese may have a short term advantage, but once everything is assembled they don't stand a chance

Look what happened in Kuwait, when Iraq steamrolled them, nobody gave up. It was only a matter of time

 

[bhsup]

Guess it's time for the US Navy to begin extensive freedom of the seas exercises in the Straits of Formosa.

 

[scipian]

I'll also say this. In the battle of Britain, the Nazis out manned the British two to one and had (I think) greatly superior pilots and marginally better planes. In the 'battle of Taipei" you have one of the most competent ari forces in the world fighting one of the most incompetent. If the British could defeat a numerically superior, better trained, and better armed air force I wouldn't find it hard to see the Taiwanese defeating a huge but thoroughly incompetent air force. And if it truly was a 6-1 ratio, I think that would spell a clear victory for Taiwan.

And, btw, in Korea the US had a 12-1 kill ratio. And, as a fellow poster pointed out, Israel fought numerically superior air forces and pulverized them in 2-3 days. They had 451 enemy aircraft downed versus of its own ten downed.

And also the ROC would have their entire armed forces mobilized in the one location whereas I doubt that China would withdraw all their troops from around China.

Futhermore, we'd of course see a build-up and be prepared for it. We aren't blind.

 

[scipian]

You know, one of the things you can do is look them up. I highly recommend it for anyone who wants to discuss current events on internet message boards.

If you did, you'd know that the Soviet Union shot down 7,000 more aircraft than they lost in the Eastern Front during World War II.

Could you cite where you found that? i looked but couldn't find any info about Russian-Nazi casualties. If true, it probably involves ground-to-air which would be in favor of Taiwan. Or non-combat planes (transports, etc.) In any case, it would be Taiwan doing the massacring.

BTW- Did Nazi Germany even have 7000+ battle aircraft? That's a whole lot. EDIT: I checked and, yeah, Germany had dozens of thousands of aircraft. Wow.

 

[Desmond Hawkins]

However, the RAND report and the 10 year old report I linked also indicate the counter to this....military buildup of Japan and surrounding nations. Japan is very well aware of Chinas aims and goals and they will not sit quietly for them. For the first time since WWII Japan sent military forces out of its country to support a military action.....in Iraq of all places. That wasnt by accident. The other nation-states of the SW pacific are growing as well, and Chinese agressiveness pushes those nations straight to the USA for support.

One thing is that I RAND didn't say such an outcome for the Chinese was likely, just possible.

 

[REDY]

I think its quite sure. But question what will be after Taiwan and US units defeated? USA will recognize Taiwan as peoples republics region? I dont think so. No when their units will be involved from start.

 

[Evie]

Why would the USA give up and go home if Taiwan is overrun? The USA is the most powerful military on Earth, any nation that stands up to their military will have its head metaphorically smashed in. It matters not wether they hurt the US, the point is any fight with the USA can only be won if the USA wants it to happen.

The Chinese may have a short term advantage, but once everything is assembled they don't stand a chance

Look what happened in Kuwait, when Iraq steamrolled them, nobody gave up. It was only a matter of time

Assuming that people would be as willing to confront China (near-unlimited manpower, huge global economic presence ; immense military) as they were to confront Iraq (rather more limited manpower, not much presence at all in the global economy, average-sized military) is a pretty piss-poor assumption to begin with.

 

[taper]

I agree that we'd have a really hard time invading China. Repelling a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is completely different. Besides, as long as we're China's biggest trading parter there's no way they'll try anything.

 

[Naval Power]

The PLAAF is most definitely not the largest air force. The US has 3 times the combat planes in the air force alone. We have plenty of our own territory to base them from in the area as well. Numbers, training, and technology would all be on the side of the US and Taiwan within a week or 2 of the start. The US is capable of surging however many carriers and air groups we need faster than anyone else in the world. Sorry Pasi, if you didn't blindly apply your "superior numbers" to the air warfare debate, you would have noticed the US has the most combat aircraft in the world by a good margin.

 

[Cuivienen]

No.

The US loses wars when it attacks other countries. The US military is highly vulnerable to guerilla warfare, something we've seen in every American military defeat (the North Korean theater of the Korean War, the Vietnam War, the Second Gulf War). If the US were so idiotic as to invade China in response, we would be defeated easily. However, in a naval and air war over the Strait of Taiwan, the US could right now defeat China or any other world military without even putting much strain on its resources.

 

[Desmond Hawkins]

However, in a naval and air war over the Strait of Taiwan, the US could right now defeat China or any other world military without even putting much strain on its resources.

This is a stochastic process. Be careful about underestimating the other guy.

 

[Dann]

It seems to me that the PRC wouldn't be able to invade and take over Taiwan so much as it would be able to just level the whole goddamn island with a squillion cruise missiles and planes etc...

Horrible as it sounds, I fear this is indeed the most likely course of action should Taiwan try anything. Not an invasion. The current China isn't that stupid to get drawn into a protracted war with the US that it cannot win. It's strategy will be to either (1) quickly force Taiwan's surrender before help could arrive and thus achieve a fait accompli, or (2) bomb the island back to the Stone Age, declare victory and then allow them their independence "out of magnanimity" (to save face in front of its own people).

Such a scenario, however, isn't very likely to happen. There never be an unprovoked attack from China against the island. For that would mean the world quickly turning hostile and rallying to Taiwan's defense. Once again, because the current China isn't that stupid.

On the US side, they have already made it clear that should the Taiwanese try anything funny they're on their own. This plus the divergence in opinions within Taiwan itself is what is keeping things in check all this time. So sorry to disappoint those itching for a war now.