Recession Watch: September (it goes on, and on, and on...)

[Rashiminos]

http://www.leap2020.eu/GEAB-N-37-is...pursuit-of-the-impossible-recovery_a3797.html

Here is a very illustrative analogy of the crisis today that imposed itself on our researchers: a rubber ball in a staircase. It seems to rebound on every step (then giving the impression that the fall has stopped) but it falls even lower on the next step, “resuming” its collapse.

What the treasuries are doing isn't a good thing.

 

[PiMan]

That is a poor analogy.
The ball might be bouncing on the ground instead, meaning the next bounce is not lower than previous.
Or if it is bouncing up stairs, it will never bounce as low as the previous bounce.

Assuming a model of bouncing down stairs doesn't allow for a genuine recovery.

 

[Rashiminos]

That is a poor analogy.
The ball might be bouncing on the ground instead, meaning the next bounce is not lower than previous.
Or if it is bouncing up stairs, it will never bounce as low as the previous bounce.

Assuming a model of bouncing down stairs doesn't allow for a genuine recovery.

And ?

 

[PiMan]

So you think the economy is doomed for all time?

 

[Rashiminos]

So you think the economy is doomed for all time?

No, just for the next few years.

 

[PiMan]

And so by your theory, there will be some sort of genuine recovery in few years. Your analogy falls down at that time.
Either your analogy falls down in a few years, or it has already fallen down. (The only alternative is that snorrius is right.) And since a genuine recovery is largely indistinguishable from a bounce in the short term, it should be just as possible that you are wrong as I. How seriously have you considered that you could be wrong?

 

[Rashiminos]

And so by your theory, there will be some sort of genuine recovery in few years.

The genuine recovery I implied isn't things returning to normal.

Your analogy falls down at that time.

Not my analogy.

Either your analogy falls down in a few years,

Maybe, still quite a few unknowns to work out, but...

or it has already fallen down. (The only alternative is that snorrius is right.)

..not in the short term, and Snorrius may be right.

And since a genuine recovery is largely indistinguishable from a bounce in the short term, it should be just as possible that you are wrong as I. How seriously have you considered that you could be wrong?

Not very seriously. Then again, the bounce is distinguishable. Just look at the seas near Singapore.

 

[Masada]

Lots of links at the source. I remain unconvinced that public spending has done much to prop up aggregate demand...more likely, the main positive effect of fiscal stimulus was in dampening uncertainty.

I'm inclined to agree with you on that one.

 

[Naskra]

I remain unconvinced that public spending has done much to prop up aggregate demand...more likely, the main positive effect of fiscal stimulus was in dampening uncertainty.

Public spending increases aggregate demand by definition. Speaking for myself, it only increases uncertainty. As a political activity, it is not reliable in it's direction or continuity.

 

[mrt144]

2nd derivative job loss claims goes up. Recession over?