It's more a player take a quick chance, not the AI gives some a bad/good luck.
If one thinks, he has a chance to eliminate an other good. If this fails, he has lost all chances in this game. Early war with a neighbour costs the victory, I think.
I don't talk about AI nor costly early war, but the wandering of the first unit which -if it gets lucky-can eliminate a neighbour while it's building a worker/workboat.
And don't tell me that if I'm worried I should start with a warrior, because no one will delay the first worker with 3-4 turns.
Anyway I'm not expecting rulechange because of this, I'm just as i've said worried that our or someone else's civ would get eliminated this way.