SGOTM 03 - The Real Ms. Beyond

Does anyone remember when the next slowdown at epic speed occurs? We're at two years per turn right now; does it stay that way through the 1800s? A back-of-the-envelope calculation seems to say, "Very soon," so I guess not.
Very soon is right: it switches to 1 year per turn in the either the first or second decade, but I'm not sure which. Lee might well know for sure.
 
I have found that the AI will give in to 2 requests/demands as long as they are reasonable before telling us "no", so I try not to waste my requests/demands on 70 gold. Of course, if you are killing a civ, then make peace and demand some money after the treaty expires, they may acquiesce again at that point.

I am in favor of all war from now on and that includes stopping with the wonders. When we want to grow our cities, we can shut off research and run just enough taxes to pay our debts and use the rest on happy faces if our cities need the happiness bump. Plus we can build theaters (which are cheap) and coliseums (which aren't as cheap) to amplify the luxury effect.

I think I can do without the autologs :)

I have always been a fan of cannons and artillery, due to their collateral damage capability. I haven't played the save in a couple weeks but, I can see why we may need transports with their extra capacity and movement to help ferry our troops to the increasingly far away war fronts. I guess the next path should be determined by where our hangup is: do we have more troops than we can ferry or not enough? If we have too many troops, go for combustion and transports. If we have too few, go for Artillery or Railroad.

If we aren't in PS, is it worth the anarchy to get there? What's anarchy for 1 civic swap now, 3 turns?

I don't know if Geezers have finished, but Trash Team surely has (though they are Warlords).
 
No, we're not in Police State. Are we sure it's worth the anarchy to switch? I'm guessing we're up to three-turn anarchy at a minimum. War weariness is not our only happiness problem, and it's worst at the end of a war. It might be, but I'd like some numerical analysis before we invest the anarchy.

I stopped on turn 400. IIRC, epic speed has 678 turns, and we have 280 years left before the end of the game (2050 compared to 1770), so that would mean the turns switch approximately now, if all my numbers are right.

I don't think we should stop wonder construction. If the Geezers have stopped at 1830 (which is something I don't think we should bet the farm on quite yet) and my numbers are right, most of our wonders will be finished before the halfway point in remaining turns, which is soon enough to help us, I think. (Keep in mind the Eiffel Tower, at least, amplifies the effects of culture.) Our big emphasis at this point should be getting cities growing as fast as possible.
 
I am playing now, and Mansa is going down. I'm assuming all the missionaries are headed to cities with unhappiness problems.

Toku almost immediately declared on Washington. He took Chicago right away. I figure I'll let them go at it for a while before attacking Toku's east side.
 
http://gotm.civfanatics.net/saves/civ4sgotm3/The_Real_Ms_Beyond_SG003_AD1786_01.Civ4SavedGame

I am severely pressed for RL time. I played a partial 8th turn, killing Mansa. There are lots of units left unmoved. I will have time tomorrow to finish the set if LK doesn't want to pick up in the middle of the turn.

Extremely short summary: Offered the two techs we had that he didn't. He gave us the two he had that we didn't plus his world map and all 90 of his gold. I then backstabbed him.

He is now off the map. We have a large number of forces on the island he shared with the barbs. We also have more forces where his last city (Gao?) was.

Lots of units have yet to move. There is a caravel scouting near Japanese territory; it went around his island counterclockwise. It looks like Edo is his main troop depository with some 11 units in various stages of upgrading.

I'll post a proper summary later tonight or tomorrow, probably the latter.

Lee, let me know if you want me to smooth the turnset over a bit tomorrow morning or if you want to take it as-is.
 
Lee, let me know if you want me to smooth the turnset over a bit tomorrow morning or if you want to take it as-is.

If you can clean it up before ~ 5:00 PM CST tomorrow, I will wait for a cleaned up turn with a better summary. I at least want to be sure who the next victim is.

I already have to start LK127 tonight, plus some other commitments.
 
Compromise (just played)
LKendter (UP)
grangerm (on deck)
Kodii
Sir Bugsy
Iainuki

Great work Compromise! :)
 
If you can clean it up before ~ 5:00 PM CST tomorrow, I will wait for a cleaned up turn with a better summary. I at least want to be sure who the next victim is.

I'll clean it up before then, or I'll post that I didn't. (But I should be able to.)

I think I took about 8 cities in 8 turns. I went about as fast as I could. I used galleons to transport troops up to Timbuktu. I used them again to transport unused troops off the island if their comrades had things under control. I didn't wait to suicide a cat or artillery into every city (just the most troop-infested) and I used frigates where I could.

For planning purposes, I noticed on the Victory Conditions screen that Toku's percentages went from 9% population/9% land to 10% population/9% land when he took Chicago. Rougly speaking, it would appear that one decent size city is about 1% of the world's population.

If we could maintain the blistering city-capture rate of 1 city per turn, that would put us in the 20-something turns before we're finished. Realistically, we're probably looking at about 30T minimum. Years were still passing at 2 years/turn when I played.

As part of my cleanup--and that may mean I run another turn tomorrow--I'll probably try to estimate where the easiest populations are. Toku has a lot of frigates, which is a bit of a pain.

A better report is likely forthcoming.
 
I just did a quick calculation. I looked at our city screen and summed up all the city sizes. I get 529 pop. According to the victory conditions screen, this is 41.23% of the world's pop. If my math is right, we need another 266 pop for a total of 796.

These numbers will change, of course, but I wanted to get a good idea of what we're up against.

Troop movement across the ocean is likely to limit us, so after getting railroad this turn, I set research at 0% for Refrigeration (+1 movement at sea).

Also, I started the UN in Novgorod and moved our GE there. I think we are going to want to run some experiments to determine the exact timing of building, voting, results so that we get it just right. We will probably want some big cities last because their rebellion lasts longer.
 
If we can, it would probably be ideal to:

-Mow over another civ (ie Japan)
-Set up troops near the largest cities (eg Mecca)
-Complete the UN
-Simultaneously declare war on all the civs with large cities and take those cities, which will remain at high population and in revolt, thus minimizing land area
-Time this as close as we can to votes for a perfectly timed Diplomatic Victory
 
If we're trying to finish in the next 40T or so, should I discontinue wonder-building (building troops instead) and use the culture slider for happiness?
I agree with this 100%. We don't need wonders. We need troops.
 
As for Geezers finishing, even if they did finish, they will have finished after 1830. The way the submission page and graph works is that it won't update with the final save until the competition is over, so that no one knows for sure when a team finished by when a big spike occurs in their score graph from the victory bonus. Also, if they have finished, then they did a very good job with diplomacy based on their lower score and lower power graph. I guess they could have tried for a spaceship victory, but that seems really early for a SS victory.

Again, I'll say that I agree with Compromise and Sir Bugsy that we should use our hammers on units to make the final assault on the rest of the world instead of a +1 happy face wonder. We can get the same +1 happy face (+2 for any city with a theater) from bumping the culture slider up once.
 
Okay, here's a better turnset report.



The first thing I do is to make this deal with Mansa. It gets us the only two techs that any AI has and we don't. I tried to only bargain for Artillery, but he wanted both Biology and Electricity for it. And for the same price, he was willing to give me everything, so I took it.

I also begged for cash from all AIs who were pleased with us. I got 400g from Louis, 260g from Cyrus, and 280g from Gandhi. I asked for everything they had and they were happy to donate.



Thanks to the awesome setup by Iainuki, we're able to drop a heckuvalot of troops on a forest north of the nearest Mali cities here on the inherited turn. That's 6 galleons full. (No, you're not going to get this kind of a setup, LK. Sorry!)

With the trades concluded, the war declared, and the assault team deployed, I hit end turn.

1772:
Toku declares on Washington.

For future reference, here's what was in Toku's capital in 1772. Note that he's started to upgrade to Rifles.



Walata falls quickly.

Also on the first turn of the war, our main continent generously supplies troops to take the seafood-rich city of Awdaghost which is defended by a single CG1 rifle.



Sadly, while we lost almost no one taking Walata, we had to attack amphibiously at Awdaghost, 9.2% odds on the first (now dead) of our grenadiers. Despite good odds (61%) on the second grenadier, we lost both in the assault, so the city is now garrisoned by a lone cannon. Why didn't he net that seafood?!

1774:

Toku wastes little time taking it to Washington...



...and captures Chicago. Too bad the AI isn't more effective at this, it would save us some time.

Meanwhile, back on the Mali front:



Djenne's 4 rifles fall quickly after out cannons, many of whom rolled into position after they weren't needed at Walata, bombard the defenses to zero. Note a couple riflemen Mansa is sending down from the hills to reinforce his (er, now our) cities. I decide it's better for them to die in the open, so dispatch some cavalry to do the job. Unfortunately, one or two die climbing the slopes. The price for speed, I guess.

1776:

The frigates were sent ahead to bombard the defenses at Timbuktu. Reasonably healthy troops not needed for Djenne were loaded onto galleons. Here, we see the coastal leapfrogging that I think Iainuki was talking about for accelerating our conquest:



Another full set is sitting on a forested hill right outside Mansa's capital only 3 turns after declaring war on him. Nice.

1778:

Mansa's got 4 rifles, 2 cavalry and an artillery in Timbuktu, but they are easily dispatched by our stack of doom with a few losses. I had upgraded one cannon to Artillery before getting on the boat. It won with 75+% odds. We could probably get by for the rest of the game by only building artillery if we wanted.

1780:

IBT: Saladin asks us to declare on Gandhi. I decline. Note that Saladin "has enough on" his hands now.

1782:

Repositioning units for assault on Mansa's eastern and western cities

1784:

Railroad is in! In the hopes of faster ship movement, I set research (at 0%) to Refrigeration.

For those interested in the Japanese defenses, our caravel has scouted out Edo:





Looks like a major troop depot.

1786:

IBT: Gandhi makes this offer:



I am pleasantly surprised to find another happy resource for our cities and I make the deal.

I'm writing this report based on the screenshots I took. I guess I didn't take any for the next 3 city captures. Here's the destruction of Mali civilization:



The attack was so rapid that the first city we captured hasn't even come out of revolt yet!

Okay, that's where I left it. Right after capturing this city and without moving any troops.

Comments for next player

With railroads, our workers have things to do again. I think I have several throughout, but look near Moscow too, I may have forgotten a few and left them waiting for transports.

Lee, I'm not sure if the server will accept two saves with the same year, and I think there are some decisions that should be made, so I'm stopping here.

I've looked around the map. In addition to a load of troops near Gao (Mansa's last city), there are a bunch on an island he shares with Toku and Kublai:



In this area, there are troops scattered in the cities, near the cities, on galleons nearby, and on galleons headed over this way from the Mali invasion. It's nothing like the beautiful setup Iainuki left me.

Note that Toku has a galleon with a settler set on the move here. I'm not sure if we should sink it or let him settle the city and get another pop point or two from it.



On the south tip of the Egyptian/etc continent are a couple of German galleys who will pillage our seafood if we declare on him, and a Persian settler/etc on a galleon. I think he's headed toward former Mali land, just like Toku. (The signs are not in the saved game.)



Wow, we must have opened up some prime real estate. Here comes Gandhi and Victoria with setter galleons too. No workers on these.

With all this, I'm inclined to let Toku settle, then just take it from him.

The global situation

Here are a few things I've noticed:

Current wars: Victoria vs. Louis, Toku vs. Washington, Gandhi vs. Mao (Note: we should make peace with Mao as soon as we can, in a few turns, I expect.)

"Enough on hands: Monty, Saladin (who recently asked us to cancel with Ganhi; I refused, then traded with Gandhi.)

Civs without rifles: Washington, Caesar, Fred

Some population estimates: (these are very rough)
Amount needed to vote self winner: ~270
Toku: ~120
Isabella: ~40
Fred: ~30
Gandhi: ~60
Washington: ~50

Conquest suggestion:

I think we should attack Toku next. Then, move on to Isabella. With a few more boats from our east, we should be able to take out Fred at the same time. Note that galleons don't necessarily need to be built in drydocks cities (though they come out faster there) since they don't need to be promoted.

By attacking Fred, we clear the path for our navy to head east.

Depending on what Monty does, I think he's a clear target, being in between Isabella and Fred. Alternatively, if we're getting close in pop, I think we should attack Gandhi. He's got about 60 pop in big cities, so they'll stay in revolt for a while.

On the UN

Novgorod is our UN city. It's at 256/1500 @ 25 hpt. Our GE seems to be stuck at adding 1170H, so we're just 3T or so from being able to rush it. I don't know if we should build it right away or hold off until we're ready to win. It'll probably take 7 or 8 turns from the time we build it for a victory vote to come in.

(Note: I still need to add a couple screenshots, but am rushed in RL again right now.)
 
Lee, I'm not sure if the server will accept two saves with the same year, and I think there are some decisions that should be made, so I'm stopping here.
Major ugh, but I agree I am stuck with a half moved turn...
I really have a hard time sorting things out when I get a turn like this, and that is why I am so strict in the LK series about finishing the turn.

My vote is ASAP for the UN. Trying to time it for the perfect voting turn is to tricky IMHO. Plus you have the wait for turns to get elected SG.
 
I have freed up a little bit of time before you're likely to start Lee. So, I'm going to finish up this turn. I'll try to upload it, and if the server rejects it, I'll simply hit end turn and then upload the newly started turn.

The main decision to be made was whether or not to allow the Japanese settler to set up a city. But having looked around the map a bit, it seems clear that if Toku doesn't settle the city, some other civ will. And since a lone rifleman will be easy to dispatch, I'd rather have an AI who we will be at war with in a few turns anyway settle the city. Since that decision is made, there's no reason to delay.

I'll put some signs throughout to point out troop concentrations, etc. Feel free to (in fact, *please*) delete them after you see them.

I'll post here when I'm finished, so that you know the next save is ready.
 
Okay, I have a new savegame from the end of the same turn. Looks like the server accepts multiple games at the same date!

The new save is here.

Note that although I downloaded the first save, I forgot to load it, and just continued from the previous save. I don't think that should be a problem.

Sorry to cause the pain with the multiple saves.

Update on the situation:

The majority of our workers are on the Egypt/etc. island. I sent them first to mines, and now they're working on a rail route connecting the whole island. I have them working manually since that's easier to see when passing to a new player.

There are a few workers on the other islands doing the same type of thing.

Note: I left Athens vacant for a moment to fill a boat. It has a whipped Artillery in the queue, so it won't be empty at the start of the next turn. I dropped the troops off in Vladivostok (NE of Moscow) for overland transport to Lahore, which is a kind of troop depot on the main island.

I'm a little concerned that crazy Monty might declare on us. Saladin too, though I suspect he's probably gunning for Gandhi.

There are lots of troops on galleons up near the island. Many are unhealed, though I think some of the boats are medics. We might be able to land the stack (perhaps with some troops swapouts) on the Japanese mainland before long. Some of the troop indications were from caravel passes made during the previous (i.e. Iainuki's, not my) turnset. There are screenshots in my report showing troops concentrations in Kyoto and Edo which seem the most densely populated.

Note that there are several Japanese frigates roaming the ocean. I've awaked our scouts so you can find them easily.

One big "danger" of declaring on Toku will be protecting our seafood. Most of our frigates are with the galleons north of our core continent.

Also, there is at least one pillaged seafood near an Egyptian city. I don't remember if I queued up a workboat yet or not (though I should have).

I think the only unmoved unit is the GE in Novgorod awaiting the UN.

You might want to doublecheck some of my Mali city build queues. I think I have all buildings, but it might be smart to just whip starving citizens into new garrison troops for our cities. Many of the recently conquered ones have one or two troops healing or fortified in them. We can probably use these on the front lines, but we're limited on ship space more than anything right now.

Only a few more turns till Broadway completes on Iron Island. I don't remember about any other wonders. I'm pretty sure I'm not working on Hollywood anywhere.

I've probably written more than it's possible to assimilate, so I'll end with "Good Luck!"

Edit: I also added a few more screenshots where there had been placeholders in my turnset report.
 
I'll offer two quick comments.

There are two ways to increase our navy's speed: develop Refrigeration for the instant benefit, or develop Combustion and upgrade to destroyers/transports. (Note we have uranium, so we'll be able to upgrade as soon as we finish the tech.) Destroyers will be move 9 for us, vs. move-6 frigates with Refrigeration, while transports will be move 6 vs. move-6 galleons with Refrigeration; destroyers also have better bombardment (-15%, vs. -10% for frigates) and, obviously, totally dominating naval firepower, while transports carry four units rather than three. Combustion is cheaper (base cost 3600), Refrigeration more expensive (base cost 4000). Combustion will obsolete whales and let us build oil wells (not too significant, but the oil wells will add some production in a few cities that could use it). Refrigeration opens supermarkets for our biggest cities. I think the decision as to which is best depends on fast we can upgrade our navy: if we can upgrade it fast enough before the game ends, we should go for Combustion; if not, let's go for Refrigeration. Given Grangerm's note (we probably don't need to be done before 1830), I'm inclined towards the former, but I'm not looking at the save right now.

I think we should build the UN ASAP. If nothing else, we can pass open markets for more cash/tech while we're waiting to vote ourselves the victor. (Sidenote for the interested: the reason the great engineer isn't adding any more hammers is because its benefit is based on the population of the city you're rushing the building in.)
 
It's just embarrassing how unfamiliar I am with the late game. I think the arguments for Combustion are overwhelming. Save the whales!

And I don't know why I assumed the GE would be empire dependent rather than city dependent. Won't matter much, I guess. We probably have enough votes to be sec general if some civs abstain. I think only Louis is pleased with us right now. I assume sec general requires a plurality rather than a strict majority?
 
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