SGOTM 07 - Fifth Element

[dutchfire]

1. Agree with Culdeus
2. There are some additional multipliers for knowing pre-requisites, IIRC, making settling more attractive. 1 is worth something too. Also:

we will have paper and Edu in about 20-25 turns.

that's less than the 36 you project.

 

[BLubmuz]

Dutch, i remember that article, but i'd like to go in deep.
Can you please post it again? (too many pages to scroll)
Currency gives us a 2nd trade route, and the gold from this goes on beakers.
The market will multiply the 2 trade routes, but only if we set research below 100% (to do in case of upgrades, if it's worth) or if we produce cash.

Sweeta, good point!
I guess that with a Deity OCC - and with SR as target - it's better settle the GS, but better listen to the rest of the team, mainly WT.
At this point there's no way we loose the Lib race ... if we survive, of course.
And we can also consider to put some turn into research to recover the no-bulb.
BTW, if we want bulb astro, we'll need the prerequisites:
Calendar - Compass - MC/Machinery - Optics. Not so easy. We risk to arrive to Lib before the AIs have discovered all those techs. I suppose we must consider to pre-research it, in case.

I dont' think that with a so crowded map we'll see any barb activity.
In case of a DoW we need at least 2 galleys. We can consider this after CS.

 

[Sweetacshon]

1. Agree with Culdeus
2. There are some additional multipliers for knowing pre-requisites, IIRC, making settling more attractive. 1 is worth something too. Also:[omitted]
that's less than the 36 you project.

Hmm, you're probably right about the boats. And in any case, I only see us warring to help our PA further down the track, so we have a bit of time.

Certainly there's a 20% (iirc) or more discount on the techs, cottages will be built, and I pretty much did it in my head but I was just trying to get some rough figures for discussion. It's mainly the fact that we're heading for SR that makes me question the bulb. (Also I suspect that WTs 20-25 turns was also just an estimation )

 

[dutchfire]

http://forums.civfanatics.com/showthread.php?t=206578

 

[MacBalt]

I think we should first get Monarchy before trying to obtain Currency. Currency will give us +1 /turn, and a market for +1 , monarchy will give us +4 immediately.

I'm strongly in agreement with you and WT about this too. We should wait for Monarchy to become available before beginning our next trade round because we don't want to miss it.

2. Settling the GS is 1 and 6*(1.85) =~11/t with library, academy, and monastery. After uni and oxford it's *(2.6) =~15.6 which will break even in 76 turns against a 1200 bulb.

Excellent analysis, so far as I can tell.
The only objection I can think of might be that with bulbing we can get a university and Oxford University earlier than otherwise, and that the "earlier" beakers they would generate during those "in-between turns" might somehow have to be factored in. Still, I can't imagine them adding up to something more valuable than what the settled scientist will produce.

1. No. I never once had a barb invasion at BC or early AD times of the crab. I had the AI do an end around on me several times but that was with a DoW. I don't see this as a major concern. The fog is almost certainly lifted over all of the coast now. There's no way to be 100% certain, but it's a good enough gamble. With the LH even if they pillage it it's still 3F3C right? Not worth diverting hammers at the moment IMO.

This is an excellent point too. I'd still like to build some naval defense before too long, but maybe we can wait for caravels since, as culdeus correctly points out, barbs are not likely to be a factor? (We shouldn't forget that we're going to need a couple more work boats soon too.)

 

[WastinTime]

2. Settling the GS is 1 and 6*(1.85) =~11/t with library, academy, and monastery. After uni and oxford it's *(2.6) =~15.6 which will break even in 76 turns against a 1200 bulb.

Currently, we get 31 , after bureau (+50%) 46 +6 = 52 * 1.85 = 96/turn
With settling: 858+2574 = 3432 @96 ~36 turns for paper and edu
Bulbing about 1200 of edu: 3432-1200 = 2232 @85 ~ 27 turns for paper and edu
Get the uni/oxford 9 turns earlier = 15.6*9 =~140

So we effectively gain 9 turns on the buildings totaling around 140 , weighed against the super-scientist paying a base 6 with between a 1.85 and 3.1 multiplier (~11 to 18/t) for the rest of the game. Disregarding my loose rounding, can someone explain to me why bulbing is the best option here?

Let's fix some of this math. Not sure where the *2.6 comes from. It's 3.1 after Ox. Later in the game it's 3.25 and then 3.50 (mon obsolete, Observ, Lab).

The benefit of getting Uni/Ox 9 turns early is 125% of our total . So let's say in 30 turns we get the Ox and have 72 base commerce. That's 72 * 1.25 * 9 = 810 beakers that our settled scientist would need to make up. That's about 40 turns late game.

You will also get the Observatory a few turns early adding another hundred beakers or so.

(Our goal is to finish tech around turn 250)

Settling probably still comes out better (I usually argue for settling). With the best reasons for bulbing being 1) the race to liberalism and 2) It's too late in the game. But there are some other advantages to [edit: bulbing]. We can finish our chop/cottages 9 turns sooner, so our commerce will be slightly higher every turn as they grow. That's a lot. Even just +2 commerce is 10 beakers/turn for say 100 turns. That's another 1000!

Other advantages are that we'd will feel free to trade CS, paper, etc. if we are way ahead. Again, recall the big picture. We want to help the AI research faster. That means we want to get them CS and Edu as soon as possible (without losing Liberalism)

So, to summarize, I'm seeing 3000-4000 beakers that the 1 hammer/6 beaker scientist would have to make up for. I'm for bulbing 1 in Edu.

 

[culdeus]

Question to ponder for the future:

When we can build a caravel do we immediately go look for the other island/s?

 

[MacBalt]

Wow, what a great discussion and analysis. It is going to take a while for me to digest this, but thanks for spelling it out so well WastinTime -- and thanks for provoking the discussion Sweetaschon! (And thanks again for recruiting me to this team, BLub! )

EDIT:

When we can build a caravel do we immediately go look for the other island/s?

That would get my vote. If we're fast enough there might be additional tech. trading opportunities. (At least, I had some luck with that in one or two of my test games.)

 

[WastinTime]

I think we'll see optics in about 40 turns. The AI will probably prioritize it since they'll want to get out into the ocean.

 

[dutchfire]

Let's fix some of this math. Not sure where the *2.6 comes from. It's 3.1 after Ox. Later in the game it's 3.25 and then 3.50 (mon obsolete, Observ, Lab).

The benefit of getting Uni/Ox 9 turns early is 125% of our total . So let's say in 30 turns we get the Ox and have 72 base commerce. That's 72 * 1.25 * 9 = 810 beakers that our settled scientist would need to make up. That's about 40 turns late game.

You will also get the Observatory a few turns early adding another hundred beakers or so.

(Our goal is to finish tech around turn 250)

Settling probably still comes out better (I usually argue for settling). With the best reasons for bulbing being 1) the race to liberalism and 2) It's too late in the game. But there are some other advantages to settling. We can finish our chop/cottages 9 turns sooner, so our commerce will be slightly higher every turn as they grow. That's a lot. Even just +2 commerce is 10 beakers/turn for say 100 turns. That's another 1000!

Other advantages are that we'd will feel free to trade CS, paper, etc. if we are way ahead. Again, recall the big picture. We want to help the AI research faster. That means we want to get them CS and Edu as soon as possible (without losing Liberalism)

So, to summarize, I'm seeing 3000-4000 beakers that the 1 hammer/6 beaker scientist would have to make up for. I'm for bulbing 1 in Edu.

The bolded word should be bulbing, right?

Let's fix some of this math. Not sure where the *2.6 comes from. It's 3.1 after Ox. Later in the game it's 3.25 and then 3.50 (mon obsolete, Observ, Lab).

Library (25%)
Academy (50%)
University (25%)
Oxford (100%)
Free Religion (10%) I believe you missed this one

We can finish our chop/cottages 9 turns sooner, so our commerce will be slightly higher every turn as they grow. That's a lot. Even just +2 commerce is 10 beakers/turn for say 100 turns. That's another 1000!

Getting a cottage 1 turn earlier will only change our total commerce output by 1 full town turn, right? So that's 3.5 * commerce by cottage, that's what 30 :beaker:?

 

[WastinTime]

Right, FreeReligion is 10% though not 25.

Ok, that cottage estimate was a bit rough. Let's revisit and use 10 turns early as an easy number. And 4 early cottages. Each cottage will go to the next level (hamlet, village, town) 10 turns earlier. So there are 40 turns that will see a benefit.

So for the 1st 10 turns we get 4 commerce/turn (+50%) * 2 (rough multipliers) = 120

Then we'll get Hamlet 10 turns early: That's 8 instead of 4 commerce (because of fin)
8 +50% * 3 (univ/ox) * 10 = 360

Then villiage is another 360 (because of printing press)

And finally town 10 turns early is another 180.

That's 1020. (give or take 100)

 

[dutchfire]

Spoiler :

turn	scenario 	10 turns later
1	1	0
2	1	0
3	1	0
4	1	0
5	1	0
6	1	0
7	1	0
8	1	0
9	1	0
10	1	0
11	3	1
12	3	1
13	3	1
14	3	1
15	3	1
16	3	1	
17	3	1	
18	3	1	
19	3	1	
20	3	1	
21	3	3	
22	3	3	
23	3	3	
24	3	3	
25	3	3	
26	3	3	
27	3	3	
28	3	3	
29	3	3	
30	3	3	
31	5	3	
32	5	3	
33	5	3	
34	5	3	
35	5	3	
36	5	3	
37	5	3	
38	5	3	
39	5	3	
40	5	3	
41	5	5	
42	5	5	
43	5	5	
44	5	5	
45	5	5	
46	5	5	
47	5	5	
48	5	5
49	5	5
50	5	5
51	5	5
52	5	5
53	5	5
54	5	5
55	5	5
56	5	5
57	5	5
58	5	5
59	5	5
60	5	5
61	6	5
62	6	5
63	6	5
64	6	5
65	6	5
66	6	5
67	6	5
68	6	5
69	6	5
70	6	5
71	6	6
72	6	6
73	6	6
74	6	6
75	6	6
76	6	6
77	6	6
78	6	6
79	6	6
80	6	6
81	6	6
82	6	6
83	6	6
84	6	6
85	6	6
86	6	6
87	6	6
88	6	6
89	6	6
90	6	6
91	6	6
92	6	6
93	6	6
94	6	6
95	6	6
96	6	6	
97	6	6	
98	6	6	
99	6	6	
100	6	6	
101	6	6	
102	6	6	
103	6	6	
104	6	6	
105	6	6	
106	6	6	
107	6	6	
108	6	6	
109	6	6	
110	6	6	
	520	460	60

1 town, no multipliers
Scenario #1 gets a cottage 10 turns early, and the total difference is 10 turns * 6 commerce from town / turn


This is my favourite part of civ math

edit: I can't upload the .xls here

 

[WastinTime]

That is probably easier to understand dutchfire, thx.

So that's 60 + 50% = 90 beakers

Times multipliers (+200%) = 270

Times 4 cottages = 1080

So again 1000 beakers, give or take 100.

 

[Sweetacshon]

Let's fix some of this math. Not sure where the *2.6 comes from. It's 3.1 after Ox. Later in the game it's 3.25 and then 3.50 (mon obsolete, Observ, Lab).
That would be when you count Oxford as 50% instead of 100%

Other advantages are that we'd will feel free to trade CS, paper, etc. if we are way ahead. Again, recall the big picture. We want to help the AI research faster. That means we want to get them CS and Edu as soon as possible (without losing Liberalism)

Hmm.. this might be enough to tip it over the edge (the decision). However,
Re: cottage growth - Won't we be working max production (and food) during the uni/ox build time anyway, implying no cottage growth, and so the extra 10 turns for that is a moot point? [edit: xpost your points about earlier cottages are correct, of course, WT, and DF] In any case, for the settled scientist to make up the est. 1200 bulbed into edu, it's roughly
30 turns*6*1.85 =~ 330
50 turns*6*3.1 =~ 900
80 turns, not taking into account lab or obs. That takes us to about turn 150, with another 100 turns or so until WTs estimated end of research to gain from the extra scientist. Well, I've talked myself back onto the fence.

 

[WastinTime]

The grass is greener over on my side of the fence. Come on over. There will be punch and pie.

 

[culdeus]

Wow, even Murky will be jealous of this when all is said and done.

 

[BLubmuz]

Great thread guys, great!
I'm posting this while reading the Techs article.
First thing i note is that, out of Alex, HC and JC (let's forget Toku, he a lost case), we're are in good company for trades:
Asoka, Fred, KK and Wash are good traders (10 techs) and Lizzy very good (15).
But since we are, and we'll probably be for all the game on the bottom score, there's no danger to switch those limits.

So, i ask again: sure we wanna wait to trade for Currency?

Back to GS, it seems that for a lot of factors it's better bulb with the next one. But i suppose that after that we'll settle any GP, right?
Do we try also the Economics race after Lib? A GM would be nice

 

[culdeus]

We'll be short a lot for the economics gambit.

I can't even remember if we have metal casting
but for sure
machinery
guilds
banking

machinery gives us our UU which is nice, but how much of a diversion from a communism rush do we want? (machinery is actually on the path to communism, but guilds and banking aren't)

 

[BLubmuz]

We'll be short a lot for the economics gambit.

I can't even remember if we have metal casting
but for sure
machinery
guilds
banking

machinery gives us our UU which is nice, but how much of a diversion from a communism rush do we want? (machinery is actually on the path to communism, but guilds and banking aren't)

Well, machinery is in the path for Optics, so Astro.
I can't remember if communism is opened only by SM/Lib, but i think so.

Question: knowledge of communism is needed by both the PA partners or 1 is enough?

We can probably trade for Feud and if we're still in monopoly of Edu we can successfully try the Economics race, if we think it's worth it.
There's a counterside by going for Communism fast: we'll lost our 2 scientists from the GLib. But there's time to discuss this.

 

[dutchfire]

Question: knowledge of communism is needed by both the PA partners or 1 is enough?

Judging by other diplo action (eg. map trading), 1 is enough.

But i suppose that after that we'll settle any GP, right?

Bulbing only becomes better as time goes on.


What about the GS hammer? How to quantify that?