ShannonCT
Deity
The second thing.
SGOTM 07 - Xteam
- Thread starter AlanH
- Start date
The second thing.
Frederiksberg
Deity
As I understand it the AI is less likely to DOW if they are lower ranking (in score) than the target civ (maybe Gator can confirm?). This is nice because we have very high rank now. On the other hand, if we could help Toku to get a higher rank than Izzy and Kublai he would be more willing to join in the wars.
Good luck CP!
Good luck CP!
Frederiksberg
Deity
I see that players have left CRC and Gypsy Kings. I wonder if this means that these teams have suffered an unfortunate early DOW.
Playing now, and will post late tonight.
DJMGator13
Still breathing
Not positive here, but looking at these 4 rands from the xml worksheet supports part of what Fred says. Other factors are distance & attitude.
Here are the numbers for Capac, since he looks like he is amassing troops:
iMaxWarNearbyPowerRatio - The AI won't start an unprovoked war against a neighbor unless it's own Power Rating is at least this percentage of the neighbor's Power Rating = 100
iMaxWarDistantPowerRatio - The AI won't start an unprovoked war against a distant Civilization, unless it's own Power Rating is at least this percentage of the neighbor's Power Rating = 60
iMaxWarRand - Additional random chance that the AI will start an unprovoked War, defined as being 1dX where 'x' is the value entered = 100
iLimitedWarPowerRatio - The AI won't start a Limited War unless it's own Power Rating is at least this percentage of the target's Power = 110
I have no idea what a "limited war" is, do any of you know? The percentage is higher than the "nearby" factor and we know that the AI looks at these 2 factors when considering whether to accept a request to go to war.
DeclareWarRefuseAttitudeThreshold - attitude towards asking civ, will declare if above Pleased
DeclareWarThemRefuseAttitudeThreshold - attitude towards target civ, won't declare if above Cautious
Capac does have a high dogpile factor though.
iDogPileWarRand - If other civs are at War already, this is a modifier to the chance that this Leader will also declare war. The modifier is 1dX with X being the value entered = 100
So since we are at war with Issy, Capac may be about to join her against us even without a viable path. He only needs to have 60% our power due to the distance.
HC did declare on Frederick and one turn ago Asoka made peace with Kublai, after sending a multitude of troops south. (Would like to know why.) Otherwise, things continue to proceed as anticipated.
Here's the log:
325BC (turn 102): Revolt to Caste and Pacifism; move citizens to cottages; upgrade archer; Toku wants too much to fight Kublai (suggest we wait until his peace treaty with Issy expires and get him involved locally)
IBT: Hagia Sophia and Colossus built in far away lands
300BC: Asoka crossbow and cat spotted near Washington heading south
Send chok and other units further south
IBT: Alex comes demanding Meditation – we refuse
275BC: archer>monastery
Asoka has engineering to trade
Kepler born in Rome
HC declares on Frederick and advances on Berlin and Hamburg with insufficient troops to do anything but pillage. Probably means Fred makes peace with Issy soon.
250BC: 5 American archers within Roman borders – guess they’re just exploring; HC seems rebuffed at Berlin but continues to pillage around Hamburg and brings more units into that area.
IBT: Asoka makes peace with Kublai! He is willing to fight HC or Alex for the right price (hopefully Paper). (We may want to go help Julius – sending axe to survey the situation to the south.)
225BC: monastery>caravel;
HC employs cat to weaken defenders but does not follow up and attack Hamburg with other available units. (If HC presses the attack wisely or, more likely, is lucky, the city could fall. If he fails, he will be weakened, and we can declare along with Asoka next turn and further weaken him, gaining some experience.)
IBT: Isaac Newton is born and Notre Dame is built in far away lands.
HC pillages, but does not take Hamburg.
Paper is researched (Education next)
200BC: Bacon bulbs Education – 5 turns left (really 4, with a new citizen next turn and the option to work some coastal tiles)
HC does indeed attack ineptly – Hamburg will stand, though badly pillaged. (Fred, our cat is in Hamburg.)
Axe discovers 2 Japanese galleys stranded in a Mongol lake ???
FOR DISCUSSION:
Leaving it to the team to decide, but I was tempted to go ahead and declare on HC, thinking it likely that Asoka would join in for Paper (unless he is already researching it).
Toku is now willing to fight Issy (or Kublai) for a price.
How about gifting Washington a tech? Will he go to war at +10?
And the save (not posted at central, as advised by leif): SGOTM07 BC-0200.Civ4SavedGame (171.3 KB)
Here's the log:
CACTUS PETE
SGOTM7 REPORT 325BC TO 200BC
SGOTM7 REPORT 325BC TO 200BC
325BC (turn 102): Revolt to Caste and Pacifism; move citizens to cottages; upgrade archer; Toku wants too much to fight Kublai (suggest we wait until his peace treaty with Issy expires and get him involved locally)
IBT: Hagia Sophia and Colossus built in far away lands
300BC: Asoka crossbow and cat spotted near Washington heading south
Send chok and other units further south
IBT: Alex comes demanding Meditation – we refuse
275BC: archer>monastery
Asoka has engineering to trade
Kepler born in Rome
HC declares on Frederick and advances on Berlin and Hamburg with insufficient troops to do anything but pillage. Probably means Fred makes peace with Issy soon.
250BC: 5 American archers within Roman borders – guess they’re just exploring; HC seems rebuffed at Berlin but continues to pillage around Hamburg and brings more units into that area.
IBT: Asoka makes peace with Kublai! He is willing to fight HC or Alex for the right price (hopefully Paper). (We may want to go help Julius – sending axe to survey the situation to the south.)
225BC: monastery>caravel;
HC employs cat to weaken defenders but does not follow up and attack Hamburg with other available units. (If HC presses the attack wisely or, more likely, is lucky, the city could fall. If he fails, he will be weakened, and we can declare along with Asoka next turn and further weaken him, gaining some experience.)
IBT: Isaac Newton is born and Notre Dame is built in far away lands.
HC pillages, but does not take Hamburg.
Paper is researched (Education next)
200BC: Bacon bulbs Education – 5 turns left (really 4, with a new citizen next turn and the option to work some coastal tiles)
HC does indeed attack ineptly – Hamburg will stand, though badly pillaged. (Fred, our cat is in Hamburg.)
Axe discovers 2 Japanese galleys stranded in a Mongol lake ???
FOR DISCUSSION:
Leaving it to the team to decide, but I was tempted to go ahead and declare on HC, thinking it likely that Asoka would join in for Paper (unless he is already researching it).
Toku is now willing to fight Issy (or Kublai) for a price.
How about gifting Washington a tech? Will he go to war at +10?
And the save (not posted at central, as advised by leif): SGOTM07 BC-0200.Civ4SavedGame (171.3 KB)
ShannonCT
Deity
Looks like we will need to find a way to get Asoka fighting Capac. Washington will do our bidding once he is friendly with us. We can still earn 2 more points with him for fair trade, so gifting him CS will probably get us there. Then we'll have Paper and Philosophy available to bribe him to war. With us, Washington, and Fred at war with Capac, hopefully Asoka will join the dogpile. No way to be sure right now, but it's our best shot. Meanwhile, I think we should make peace with Issy and negotiate peace between Fred and Issy so Fred doesn't lose a city. If Fred can bleed Capac for a few turns, a four team dogpile should be able to eliminate Capac.
I also think we should go ahead and bribe Toku to fight Kublai, to give Julius some help.
Beijing is looking good. After the caravel is built, we can MM for fast growth and fast education. Maybe consider chopping the two hill forests into a university.
Frederiksberg
Deity
DJMGator13 said:
So I guess that the score ranking influences the AI attitude and thus indirectly the probability of a DOW.
DJMGator13 said:
Do you know if the probability of dogpiling increases when more than one civ is at war with the target?
I tried to count the number of turns of shared war we have had:
JC: 22
Asoka: 20
Toku: 11
Fred: 22
Please check.
The GOTM Server is back up again. Just uploaded the save and here is the log:
Got to go and have a look at the save!
EDIT - We've got some good looking curves!
EDIT2 - From the Log:
Turn 86, 725 BC: Asoka has declared war on Kublai Khan!
Turn 105, 250 BC: Asoka has made peace with Kublai Khan!
Turn 105 - 86 = 19 turns?
Turn 86, 725 BC: Julius Caesar has declared war on Kublai Khan!
He is still at war - turn 86 to 107 = 21 turns?
Turn 86, 725 BC: Tokugawa has declared war on Isabella!
Turn 96, 475 BC: Isabella has made peace with Tokugawa!
Turn 96 - 86 = 10 turns?
Turn 86, 725 BC: Frederick has declared war on Isabella!
War continues = 21 turns?
Spoiler :
Got to go and have a look at the save!
EDIT - We've got some good looking curves!
EDIT2 - From the Log:
Turn 86, 725 BC: Asoka has declared war on Kublai Khan!
Turn 105, 250 BC: Asoka has made peace with Kublai Khan!
Turn 105 - 86 = 19 turns?
Turn 86, 725 BC: Julius Caesar has declared war on Kublai Khan!
He is still at war - turn 86 to 107 = 21 turns?
Turn 86, 725 BC: Tokugawa has declared war on Isabella!
Turn 96, 475 BC: Isabella has made peace with Tokugawa!
Turn 96 - 86 = 10 turns?
Turn 86, 725 BC: Frederick has declared war on Isabella!
War continues = 21 turns?
Very nice work CP!! 
We've gone from CoL's to within 5 turns of Education and obtained Compass, Machinery and Optics! We are half-way through our shared wars requirement with 3 civs and haven't allowed one enemy to set foot on our City-State! And all within 100 turns.
Nice work team!!!! 
Roster:
Frederiksberg - UP
Gator - On Deck (I did this to give MP time to get settled back at home base. It can be switched if desired?)
Mad Professor - Awaiting his return from an African adventure.
rrau
leif
ShannonCT
Jimmy Thunder
Cactus Pete - Just Played!!
Mistfit
Once we have our Whale netted, would it be worth building a Market for 2 more
?Looking at the power graph, I think it would be a good idea to get some help for Fred as HC is more powerful than he is. And we need to try to find another civ for Asoka to go to war with. If we declare on HC, perhaps Asoka would join us for Paper. Should we trade it way though before we have Education? Asoka is pretty far ahead in the tech race, so he must have a lot of beakers. Can he beat us to Liberalism?
Anxious to see what the other continent holds!
Frederiksberg
Deity
leif erikson said:
Nice work. I guess the exact number of turns can only be determined if we know if the turn when peace is declared counts as a war turn... In that case the number of turns would be one more than listed above.
ShannonCT
Deity
You should have a better idea than I of what is going on with Issy. If she's not attacking, then no reason to make peace. So let's give Toku some copper and military techs to attack Issy.
No, just meant that it will take a few turns for Washington and Asoka to muster their forces against Capac. We can gift Washington CS this turn, declare on Capac, and then start the bribing.
If the last 20 turns are any indication, Asoka will take his sweet time eliminating Capac. If the war does end early, we can always sick him back on Kublai. We'll have Astro by then for another bribe.
That's good for me. Anything to speed up Oxford.
The only GP Asoka has gotten all game was a GS (Al-Khwarizmi). And I can see an academy in Dehli (the arch building with a yellow roof). So he shouldn't have any GS sitting around for bulbing Education. Since we're 4 turns from Education, and we're planning to whip the university in 5 turns, we should probably send both workers to the forest hills to begin chopping. Actually, a mine on each of those hills would take 7 turns and give us some versatility for MMing the building of Oxford. (And Fred, don't forget to get our stone back from Asoka.) I think we're pretty safe in giving him Paper for war with Capac, but if we're worried about being beaten to Liberalism, we can wait a few turns.
Yes, I think we should take Astronomy for our free Liberalism tech. It is one of the more expensive techs and it will allow us to trade with the other continent. We may be able to get some resources out of the deal?
Good discussion btw!
Good discussion btw!
ShannonCT
Deity
I have examined the log. The first GP born in the world was in the 1200s BC. We had already explored India by the 1500s BC. So any GP born to Asoka would have shown up as having been born in Bombay or Dehli. There was one GS born in Dehli a few turns ago. And I see an academy in Dehli. So he can't currently have another GS sitting around. And since the GS was born rather recently, he shouldn't be getting another one very soon.
The only other viable option for Liberalism would be Scientific Method. It's worth 570 more beakers, and requires us to self-research/bulb Astro and Printing Press. Assuming our next GP is not a GA, we would need about 2-3 turns to self research PP and maybe another 9-10 to research Astro. At that point with higher value trade routes, extra commerece from PP, and beaker bonus from university and Oxford, Liberalism might take another 5-6 turns. So are we willing to bet that no one will have Liberalism in 20-23 turns?
I think the reward is too small to justify the risk. If we take Astro with Liberalism, we get the trade route bonus faster (maybe 7-8 turns). The trade route bonus is going to be worth perhaps 40-50 beakers per turn. This wipes out a lot of the beaker difference between Astro and Sci Meth.
DJMGator13
Still breathing
Don't forget that Sci Method obsoletes both the Great Library and monasteries, so we'd have to convert some citizens over to scientists to maintain the same GPP pace. We'll be doing that soon (prior to Comm.)anyhow, so do we want the higher priced tech for free. If we still have a bunch of techs to research first, we may want to delay Sci Method.
ShannonCT
Deity
When we and Asoka (fingers crossed) are outputting 1000 beakers per turn, GPs won't be terribly useful. I can't see any way to justify not getting a PA with Asoka as soon as possible.
DJMGator13
Still breathing
Okay, here's the updated Diplo log and new predictions. I even opened the save file this time while updating the info 
Right now our World Map has no value and both Asoka and Caesar will sell theirs to us for 10 and 20 gold respectively. There is still fog on the map, so we may want to acquire these in trades prior to launching our ship. As soon as we hit the high seas, our map will become more valuable and it will probably become the most requested item when diplo contact takes place. It is basically number 2 on everybody's list right after tech trading.
There is one AI-on-AI war going so that makes the "join war" option viable now. Some of the "Stop trading" ones I have listed are unlikely because the the AI has a threshold that requires them to refuse any stop trading offers we make if cautious or above. If the same applies to them in making demands on us, then there are only a very few stop trading options available in the current known game.
Right now our World Map has no value and both Asoka and Caesar will sell theirs to us for 10 and 20 gold respectively. There is still fog on the map, so we may want to acquire these in trades prior to launching our ship. As soon as we hit the high seas, our map will become more valuable and it will probably become the most requested item when diplo contact takes place. It is basically number 2 on everybody's list right after tech trading.
- Asoka.....tech trade > give help or ask for help
- Alexander.....stop trade @ T115 > ask for help @ T154
- Toku..... tech trade > stop trading > Ask for help @ T147
- Washington..... tech trade > stop trading > give help
- Elizabeth..... tech trade > Ask for help @ T119 > give help
- J Caesar..... tech trade > stop trading
- Capac .....join war vs Fred > stop trading > demand tribute @T142
- Frederick..... tech trade >join war vs Capac > stop trading
- Isabella..... Peace offer @T109
- Kublai..... DOW on turn 86 (no peace offer yet)
There is one AI-on-AI war going so that makes the "join war" option viable now. Some of the "Stop trading" ones I have listed are unlikely because the the AI has a threshold that requires them to refuse any stop trading offers we make if cautious or above. If the same applies to them in making demands on us, then there are only a very few stop trading options available in the current known game.
DJMGator13
Still breathing
There is no indication that the dogpilie rand might be cumulative. However, if the allied AI's are pressing the war then the defending AI's power should be dropping which in turn should make it easier for a new partner to be added to the alliance.
Looking at Toku's two fresh water galleys they must have been bounced by either a canceled open border or a border expansion. Toku still has an open border with Kublai, so when that expires those ships will probably bounce somewhere else.
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