Understood. Don't you think the cost includes cost of aqueduct?
This is true, while I often build aqueducts in my own HoF games it is usually at a later date when hammers are at less of a premium and health is proving problematic. That said, I think we're going to want to grow our capital to pop20 under hereditary rule and health WILL be a problem.
Which brings me to my next point, the case for HR and how it affects our tech plan in the short-term: Currently we're in the mindset that we'll grow our capital on the back of forest preserve happiness.
After seeing more of the map I no longer believe this is the best course of action.
We do not have a vast expanse of grassland on which to grow cottages, the best cottaging area remains our capitals BFC.
The land really fixes our strategy for us.
Max cottage spam of capital with Academy+Oxford+bureau multipliers.
To do this we're going to have to chop down our forests, if we chop down our forests we need happiness, we have no happiness resources.
HR is the best source of happiness available to us, we also have 4(?) wine available to be improved. The wine is extra happiness and also gives us something to trade/gift to the AI for relationship bonuses.
Alternatively we can access HR from the pyramids, which are also handy for the GE points that we need.
To minimise any turns of revolutionary anarchy we should look at adopting OR too, the hammer multiplier on buildings and wonders is significant in its own right. To make OR useful we want a religion. Confucionism is our safest shot and provides us the obvious benefits of courthouses and also enables castes should we want them.
What this boils down to for the short term:
tech CoL+Monarchy
or
tech CoL+build Mids
With those in hand we spread confuc to our neighbours and grow our capital to max pop asap and start working those cottages.
An important rule of space race games: Never tech something the AI can tech for you.
Math, Ironworking, Sailing, Monotheism are all techs that a monarch AI can reliably tech in an acceptable timeframe.
To ensure that they are willing to trade these techs we want them to like us, which again makes the case for confuc a strong one.