I'm not sure I'm ready to answer... I just ran a few quick tests, including Soirana's city placement. I still have a few to run, hopefully tonight. Here's my thoughts at the moment:
(1) I'm still leaning towards in place. It's the best option for expansion, and I'm not sure we can realistically end up with a full-on commercial, bureau, Oxford capital anyway.
(2) Desert hill. In the test file I've been planting my third city 1E of S ivory in this scenario. In general, one of the major things I like about the original in-place/desert-hill suggestion is that it uses all the visible resources and leaves room for a third city in the current screenshot. Since we're very likely to get boxed in quickly, more cities is better.
(3) Nationalism / Education (bulb) / Liberalism; I sorta buy Soirana's tech path, but it's risky in case we're unable to trade early on.
(4) Bureau / Caste / Merc / Pac. Honestly, I think that all five are useful and the only reason we wouldn't switch all of them is the extra turn of anarchy. One version I've been playing around with is Serf to start, than a relatively early switch to HR / Caste. After trying a couple of quick starts with Caste, I'm leaning towards going with it from the start. The difference in worker speed is noticeable, but not game-breaking, and Caste has a lot of advantages. As for HR, we can get our cities to 8-9 without it (more if we find a happy resources soon), so I feel like we can probably go straight into Rep to avoid the extra turn of anarchy. I wonder if we can somehow align Rep with OR for a building rush. I'm getting to 5 cities slightly before Lib (in the early 1600's), but I think the extent of our expansion is map-dependent.
(5) Constitution.