SGOTM 11 - One Short Straw

I will vote to research Music now, I do not see any point in delaying it. Why we need machinery in a harry?

The hope is that we could get Printing Press for the tech boost earlier. No one can currently research music so as long as we keep checking the techs screen we are in no danger of losing it.

I wouldn't worry about Schwegadon. Beeline Mass Media. Win the Gold.
We can certainly win without it, but what would we build instead? Wealth? with 2GM we probably won't need any more. A courthouse is a little better because of the espionage, even so it is pretty marginal. UOS would save us a turn or so if we put temples in all our high production cities. S.P would at least eliminate one risk. It would be highly embarrassing if we lost the gold because someone revolted to free religion the turn before we would have won.

If he did found it, what are the options exactly? Would a full-on Buddhist spam work?

Unfortunately the 3 cap on missionaries means that we don't realistically have the capability to spam Buddishm to him. Also he could lose a Buddisht city to Japan tipping him into another religion. Winning without him looks viable, but we would probably need to found other cities to maximise our vote. Ideally we should start this very soon in order to give them time to grow. Rice city and Oasis are probably our best settler pumps for now.

It looks like we have 5-6 city sites left:

1.incense/horses
2.cows
3.2 silver/ whales
4.deer
5.crab/cow city SW of rice
6. A city by the floodplains between rice and Bombay

These 2 cities could probably build all these in 25 turns or so.
 
@mdy - we can missionary gift Justinian. I.e., send missionaries into his borders then gift the missionary for him to spam. It'll save a few turns and make endless spamming easier to do. My bigger concern is that Mehmed will become #1 in pop after us, which screws our diplo plans...
 
@mdy - we can missionary gift Justinian. I.e., send missionaries into his borders then gift the missionary for him to spam. It'll save a few turns and make endless spamming easier to do. My bigger concern is that Mehmed will become #1 in pop after us, which screws our diplo plans...

Well, let's hope Toky will be reasonably successful in war. Otherwise we do have back up plan of building UN in gold city and gifting it to Saladin.
 
I still say research Music first, I do not believe we can research Machinery -PP- before AI starting on Music. To mach risk with very little benefit.

BTW, who is one?
 
I still say research Music first, I do not believe we can research Machinery -PP- before AI starting on Music. To mach risk with very little benefit.

The risk is 0, provided we keep our eye on the diplomacy screen, so we may as well make the attempt, it won't cost us anything.

@mdy - we can missionary gift Justinian. I.e., send missionaries into his borders then gift the missionary for him to spam. It'll save a few turns and make endless spamming easier to do. My bigger concern is that Mehmed will become #1 in pop after us, which screws our diplo plans...

Even with this I've looked at the logistics of spamming Buddism to him, and they simply don't work with our other priorities. We can probably win without him if we emphasise growth, so I suggest we basicly ignore him and hope he loses enough cities to make Japan the largest Civ.

Shall I play a few more turns, or does the next player want to take it?
 
I'm fine with you playing ahead too.

On a side note - it looks like the Ducks are growing their empire pretty big too. Can't tell if they have education/Oxford yet though.
 
I've played.

Unfortunately we got a scientist at 5% odds, instead of an engineer in the capital. We did however get the merchant in 2 fish, and we can use it for a trade mission in Saladins capital next turn for 2550 gold. We have the free artist from music. Our next GP is scheduled to be gernerated in 2 fish in 8 turns currently with a 88% chance of a scientist, 8% for an engineer (should rise to 11-12%), and 4% for an artist. We are still running an engineer in the capital, but I'm not sure if it is practical to push out another GP there. The artist and scientist are both fortified in the capital.

Techs discovered: Machinery, Printing Press, Music, archery (from map trade with Zara), Calendar (traded Metal Casting to Justin for it). Aesthetics was gifted to Japan to get him back up to cautious.

We are trading fish to Izzy, for Dyes. We are trading Ivory to Mehemed for silk and 1 gold. Copper is being sold to Saldin for 3gpt.

Trading for Justins map has given us the circumnavigation bonus. One tile of barbarian owned grassland is on the island SW of Justin. Our scout should reach it in 4 turns.

Zara will get theology in 6 turns. Buddishm has already been spread to 3 cities, and the last should get it in 3 turns, so we should be able to convert him before theocracy. Two fish will get buddishm in 3 turns, and marble city in 2 turns. One missionary was lost trying to spred buddishm to Addis Abbaba.

The Apolistic Palace has been built by Spain. Mehmed is the current occupant. We abstained in the vote.

We now have military garrisons for all our cities.

Ivory City: Has built the Maori, and has been built 3 missionaries since then. The next one is built next turn, when it can't build missionaries due to the cap I think we should build a forge there to take advantage of the hammers from Maori.

Capital: Built Buddisht monastry and 3 missionaries, has put more hammers into market (currently being built).

Bombay: Completed charoit, and started S.P (we didn't exactly have anything more useful to build there). Will complete in 10 turns.

Two Fish: Built National Epic, now building wealth, running 7 scientists and 1 engineer.

Rice: Completed trieme, now building wealth, running 3 scientists.

Gold: Built granary, building lighthouse.

Sugar: Built forge, building barracks, finished in 4 turns.

Marble:Built 2 warriors. Building wealth, running 6 scientists.

Oasis: finished lighthouse, and settler, 2 turns into building another settler. I was intending to found the silver city with the first settler, so we could use those 2 silver to trade for dye/silk. As we have made different trades for them this isn't as important now so the settler could be diverted, it is currently just north of the capital. One silver mine has been built though. The iron mine in Oasis has been built (but not connected).

Incense is coming on line in 7 turns, and sugar in 4 turns.

The war has been going fairly well for Japan, he has raised 1 city, and captured 2, (though subsequentially 1 was recaptured). It looks like we will have no trouble ensuring that Japan is the largest Civ other than us.

The current estimated population of the Civs is:

Us: 77
Zara: 25
Spain: 23
Mehemed: 57
Justin: 52
Saladin: 37
Japan: 69

Us+Zara+Spain+Mehemed gives us 53.5% of the vote, with Justin this rises to 68.8%.

N.B: Civ crashed whilst I was writing up this report. I am fairly certain that I did not make any irreversible changes after I saved it, but I am not 100% certain.

Spoiler :
Turn 181, 115 AD: You have discovered Machinery!
Turn 181, 115 AD: Mehmed II adopts Organized Religion!

Turn 182, 130 AD: Laodicea (Justinian I) has been captured by the Japanese Empire!!!

Turn 183, 145 AD: Antioch (Justinian I) has been captured by the Japanese Empire!!!

Turn 184, 160 AD: You have constructed a Buddhist Monastery in Delhi. Work has now begun on a Market.

Turn 185, 175 AD: Charles Martel (Great General) has been born in Constantinople (Justinian I)!

Turn 186, 190 AD: The borders of Oasis have expanded!

Turn 187, 205 AD: You have trained Buddhist Missionary in Delhi. Work has now begun on a Market.
Turn 187, 205 AD: Albert Einstein (Great Scientist) has been born in Delhi (Gandhi)!
Turn 187, 205 AD: You have constructed National Epic in Two Fish. Work has now begun on a Market.
Turn 187, 205 AD: The borders of Rice have expanded!
Turn 187, 205 AD: Rice celebrates "We Love the Prime Minister Day"!!!

Turn 188, 220 AD: Rice celebrates "We Love the Prime Minister Day"!!!
Turn 188, 220 AD: Leaders of Buddhism have a vision of uniting all Buddhist faithful under the The Apostolic Palace.
Turn 188, 220 AD: Isabella has completed The Apostolic Palace!
Turn 188, 220 AD: Saladin adopts Vassalage!

Turn 189, 235 AD: You have discovered Calendar!
Turn 189, 235 AD: You have trained a Settler in Oasis. Work has now begun on a Lighthouse.
Turn 189, 235 AD: Your maps have proven that the world is round! Your ships receive a +1 Movement bonus.

Turn 190, 250 AD: You have discovered Printing Press!
Turn 190, 250 AD: Harkuf (Great Merchant) has been born in Two Fish (Gandhi)!
Turn 190, 250 AD: The Apostolic Palace voting members have announced their decision: Apostolic Palace Election (Winner Proposes Apostolic Palace Resolutions) (Requires 69 of 173 Total Votes)

Turn 191, 265 AD: You have discovered Archery!
Turn 191, 265 AD: Isabella adopts Hereditary Rule!

Turn 192, 280 AD: Ivory has grown to size 10.
Turn 192, 280 AD: Tokugawa has 230 gold available for trade.
Turn 192, 280 AD: Bombay will grow to size 6 on the next turn.
Turn 192, 280 AD: You have trained Buddhist Missionary in Delhi. Work has now begun on a Market.

Turn 193, 295 AD: Bombay has grown to size 6.
Turn 193, 295 AD: Clearing a Forest has created 36 ? for Delhi.
Turn 193, 295 AD: Delhi will grow to size 13 on the next turn.
Turn 193, 295 AD: Rice will grow to size 11 on the next turn.
Turn 193, 295 AD: Vijayanagara will grow to size 6 on the next turn.
Turn 193, 295 AD: Amir Khusro (Great Artist) has been born in Delhi (Gandhi)!
Turn 193, 295 AD: You have discovered Music!
Turn 193, 295 AD: You have trained Buddhist Missionary in Delhi. Work has now begun on a Market.
Turn 193, 295 AD: Justinian I has made peace with Tokugawa!

Turn 194, 310 AD: Delhi has grown to size 13.
Turn 194, 310 AD: Rice has grown to size 11.
Turn 194, 310 AD: Vijayanagara has grown to size 6.
Turn 194, 310 AD: Tokugawa has 300 gold available for trade.
Turn 194, 310 AD: Justinian I has 110 gold available for trade.
Turn 194, 310 AD: Saladin has 140 gold available for trade.
Turn 194, 310 AD: Tokugawa has 300 gold available for trade.
Turn 194, 310 AD: Isabella has 60 gold available for trade.
Turn 194, 310 AD: Saladin has 140 gold available for trade.
Turn 194, 310 AD: Zara Yaqob has 120 gold available for trade.
Turn 194, 310 AD: Tokugawa is the worst enemy of Isabella, Justinian I, Saladin, Zara Yaqob.
Turn 194, 310 AD: Zara Yaqob is the worst enemy of Tokugawa, Mehmed II.
Turn 194, 310 AD: Mehmed II will trade Pig
Turn 194, 310 AD: Will Trade Map: Justinian I, Mehmed II, Zara Yaqob
 
That's unfortunate about the GE :( Delhi should continue running an engineer though - it'll pop out another great person eventually in another 50 turns or so.
 
Damn, that's awful. 8%??!! :mad:

Oh, well. I guess we'll just have to run engineers in both Delhi and Two Fish, and hope for the best. No forge in Marble or Rice, so nothing we can do there.

Good job spreading to Zara, but I thought we would get Two Fish and Marble first. We should switch religions now, when those two missionaries spread there.

I suppose Compass is the only tech on the direct beeline, but it's also one we could probably get in trade soon. This is a bit of a bottleneck. AIs tend to research it quite often in my experience. Can't think of what else to research, though, other than maybe work towards Econ - which certainly isn't necessary yet... We could just put beakers into Lib to near completion, hoping to have Compass open up in trade?

I think Mehmed still has growth potential to pip Toku for election opponent. I guess we'll see how it goes...
 
Well done, mdy! Good job on the circumnavigation bonus.

If we settle the lake city that includes the Delhi Gold silver, we can grow that city quite large with a granary and a lighthouse, but it will take time. The sooner we start it, the better.
 
I'd also typically settle the deer-lake site first, as it actually has growth potential. We can maybe work a Delhi cottage or two from there, as well. Which reminds me: shyuhe, in your gpp calcs you had Delhi continuously running 3 specialists, right?
 
No, I calculated Delhi running a single engineer.

Are you sure?

By my calculations, assuming a direct mass media bee line, with radio from Liberailism we will complete all our research between T40 and T45 depending what GP's we get.

During that time we will generate the following GP's:

T+8: GP in 2 fish
T+16: GP in marble
T+22: GP in 2 fish
T+31 GP in rice
T+40 GP in 2 fish

We will also get 1 free GS from Physics

The capital does not come close to generating a GP at any point.


If the barb city to the SW is the fur city it will takes us at least 11 turns. The last GP will therefore either need to be a GA to bulb mass media, or a GE.

We will want at least 1 more GM. To do this we should probably switch our scientists to merchants in 2 fish, and hope a merchant is the T+8 GP, so we can then run scientists there, if not we continue running merchants and hope to get one on T+22.

The current GS is probably best used to bulb Astronomy, leaving the current artist, the free GS from physics, and the GP's generated in rice/marble to be the 4 sent to the fur city.

With such a tight schedule we might be limited by the time needed to take the fur city and get everything there, not tech. A lot will depend on how city the barb city is defended. We should probably pause once we can see the city to the SW, so we can figure this out. If this city is not the fur city we should probably send a caravel to scout the North, as there could be a lot of unexplored land up there.

If we settle the lake city that includes the Delhi Gold silver, we can grow that city quite large with a granary and a lighthouse, but it will take time. The sooner we start it, the better.

If we work the silver (which is suboptimal given the CS bonus in the capital), it will take 45 turns without growth to build both the granary, and lighthouse there, and we would still be at size 1. If we just work the deer directly, and then the lake tiles instead we could grow to size 5 over that timescale without a granary/lighthouse.

The only site which can grow reasonably quickly and still build a granary/lighthouse is the horse/incense/fish site, if it borrows the fish from the island city. (With 2 sugar this city could easily do without it)
 
If we work the silver (which is suboptimal given the CS bonus in the capital), it will take 45 turns without growth to build both the granary, and lighthouse there, and we would still be at size 1. If we just work the deer directly, and then the lake tiles instead we could grow to size 5 over that timescale without a granary/lighthouse.

The only site which can grow reasonably quickly and still build a granary/lighthouse is the horse/incense/fish site, if it borrows the fish from the island city. (With 2 sugar this city could easily do without it)
If we can still have the most population without deer city at pop15+, no problem. Otherwise, in hindsight, we miscalculated when we stopped our REX and Mutineer was right.

Of course, there's still Aksum...

Will we need a few galleons for taking the furs faster?
 
I haven't looked at the save yet, but it looks like we'll have to slow build the UN in Delhi. So it'll probably take 20-30 turns from the completion of mass media. On the upside, this will give us ample time to go conquer the fur city, so it may actually work out for the better.

Assuming we hit mass media at T+50-ish, we won't actually win until about T+70 or 80 from here, so we should keep that estimation in mind for planning which cities to settle.
 
Assuming we hit mass media at T+50-ish, we won't actually win until about T+70 or 80 from here, so we should keep that estimation in mind for planning which cities to settle.

If we use the following GP strategy I calculate that we have a 66% chance of winning in the next 55-60 turns. [assuming we can sort out the fur logistics, and we have enough votes]

Immediately hire 2 scientists in the capital. Beakerwise this should be more efficient due to the extra GP, but reduce the capitals population by about 2 around T55-60. Also fire scientists in 2 fish and hire merchants.

T+8: First GP generated in 2 fish. If it is a merchant fire merchants in favour of scientists. If it is anything else fire engineer and hire merchants.

T+16: Second GP in 2 marble

T+22: Third GP in 2 fish . If the first GP was an enginner hire 8 scientists. Otherwise 7 scientists and one engineer.

T+33: Fourth GP generated in the capital. If we get a GE and are still running an engineer in 2 fish hire another scientist there instead. We may need to delay the GP in rice city to generate the 4th GP here depending when we spread Budhism there.

around T39: Fifth GP in rice city (may need to delay 2 fish slightly depending on when buddishm spreads.)

around T43: sixth GP generated in 2 fish.

Asuumptions: We succesfully spread Buddishm to 2 fish/marble and then immediately switch to buddishm. The GS can be used to bulb astronomy.

As we have a good chance of having a U.N. victory vote between T55 and T60, I think we should try and plan on winning within this timescale.

Will we need a few galleons for taking the furs faster?

I think galleons will be essential to win on this timescale given the logistic challenges involved.

One thought that has just occurred to me: If the fur city is very heavily defended, depending on the circumstances founding a nearby city and getting the furs via an artist bomb MIGHT be easier than taking it.



I have just noticed that Japan made peace with Justin this turn. He is still at war with Zara though. Maybe we should try to bribe him into peace with compass/optics in the hope that he will attack Justin again once his peace treaty with him has expired?
 
Wouldn't it be better for Japan to be at peace so that we don't get stupid "you refused to help us" negative modifiers? As long as Toku doesn't attack us, I don't think it really matters. And he shouldn't attack us since he hates his bordering neighbors a lot more than us.

I'll take a look at the save (think I'm up) and post my thoughts on the GP plan soon.
 
How do people feel about building the GL in Delhi? It will enable Delhi to pop a great person before we finish mass media, and we'll get around 60% odds for a GE I think. I think it's worth a try, as we're going to be hurting at the end without a GE. It's a bit of a risk but I think it's worth trying.

Took a look at the save - everything looks good. We need to scout the barbarian island (caravels I think) and also get a GM for a trade mission. Settle deer for more pop, and possibly the cow spot too. I don't think anything else will grow fast enough. We also need to spread buddhism to our GPP cities (2-fish, rice, and marble) so that we can adopt the one true religion. I think ivory/Delhi should be able to take care of those needs though. We should also convert Zara too.

The AI will never reach liberalism or economics at the rate they're teching on this map so that's not really a concern. I think our only concern is how we're going to get the fur and how we're going to build the UN.
 
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