SGOTM 11 - One Short Straw

[Silu]

I'm basing everything on the graphs. I actually thought of the graphs being off by a turn, but that still doesn't make up for that much beakers on the last turn. Oh well...I guess it doesn't matter much if we're not going to try to contain him.

Last turn? Completing TW with 117/117 beakers? What part do you specifically refer to as being off?

On topic, what modifiers did u used for calculating tech costs and beakers applied?

This is pretty much the last page of discussion

 

[RRRaskolnikov]

Nvm then I must not be sober yet

 

[mdy]

I can't see any other way to get CS earlier so I am fine with it as well. I agree that we should fogbust our future GP farm site, though.

 

[LowtherCastle]

@LC: that's actually the same fountain nvm

Yes. Now my question for Erkon is, which pose was he mimicking?

 

[LowtherCastle]

Last turn? Completing TW with 117/117 beakers? What part do you specifically refer to as being off?

THe key point was that the total beaker cost for the 4 techs was 507b, and the total beakers produced were 469b. There's a 38b discrepancy. Now, he produced enough beakers to research fishing-myst-masonry-TW, but then the +2 power must have come from a warrior build or I don't know what, plus, then there's no explanation for how he's NOW getting the 40% bonus, because he wouldn't have completed agri yet. But wait aminute...if he did agri-AH, then he doesn't have myst for the 40% on Masonry. :crazyeye

Of course. Stupit me. He's now researching pottery which also gets the 40%. Okay, that epxlains the 40% but doesn't explain how he cheats.

 

[Silu]

I'm not sure I follow completely, but a couple of points:

- I did see a third Archer when I passed his capital during my turnset, so he did build an extra Archer since Emperor AIs start with only 2. Note that Archers only cost 30 for him here

- 40% is possible with Fishing&TW if he's going for Pottery. Ditto with Agri&TW.

 

[mdy]

fishing-myst-masonry-TW, but then the +2 power must have come from a warrior build or I don't know what, plus, then there's no explanation for how he's NOW getting the 40% bonus

Could he get the 40% bonus by researching pottery? Or don't you get the bonus id the tech is an essential pre requisite, only an optional one?

 

[mushroomshirt]

mutineer - you have my vote for your plan.

At what point do you plan on stopping your turn set?

 

[LowtherCastle]

- I did see a third Archer when I passed his capital during my turnset, so he did build an extra Archer since Emperor AIs start with only 2. Note that Archers only cost 30 for him here

He started with 2 archers and bulit one first thing. Archers give +3 power in BtS. He's gained very little power the entire game. He hasn't worked a hammer tile yet. The worker is ~76h and he built it at pop3 (or mostly), so that's 7f-hpt or 11t. That leaves 25t * 2hpt + 1h overflow = 51 hammers. Subtract the archer and you have about 21 hammers. That's a warrior, scout or partial build, right?

I thought about the possibility that the +2 power was a warrior/scout completed the same turn as Masonry, but that would mean he reserached myst instead of agri and then there's no way he's building either pottery or AH at 40%.

I'm at a loss...

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Btw, I've been assuming you know that this is the article for reading the graphs.

 

[shyuhe]

The plan is fine with me as well - how long are you planning on playing? I'd recommend breaking it up into shorter segments and letting us know if something weird comes up that requires us to reconsider the plan.

 

[Silu]

Scouts don't give power, and I believe AIs don't build Warriors if they can build Archers, so that only leaves a tech as a power source D). He started with two of the +2 power techs, leaving only Sailing and AH, so he went for either of those.

Tell me again why he couldn't have gone Fishing -> Mysti -> (AH/Sailing) -> Wheel and be on Masonry now for 40%? Sorry, I've never done this stuff before

 

[Mutineer]

It is creasy folk, but when I was waiting for replies I was thinking about crabbing a few more beakers. After finding a new micromanaged sequence I manage to get Oracle 1 turn early 1650BC and with out stonehenge money.

If we lucky to get even 20$ from stonehenge this date could be dropped by 1 more.

I am to tied now and it is too late, I will start playing in the morning.
Yes, I will play a short sets stopping if anything noticeable discovered.
But how many turns total? I do not know I am holding in my mind a few different sequence and permutations and put a lot of time to work this out.

Will team mind if I play until CS, ofcouse carefully, shot turn-sets, checking my micro on our test file after each short turn-set?
Publishing and consulting team after each turn set?

 

[LowtherCastle]

Tell me again why he couldn't have gone Fishing -> Mysti -> (AH/Sailing) -> Wheel and be on Masonry now for 40%? Sorry, I've never done this stuff before

Fish>Myst>Sailing>TW does not give 40% on Sailing, but the GNP graph shows him researching (Sailing) at 40%.

Fish>Myst>AH>TW does not give give 40% on AH because he doesn't have agri.

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If you look at the graphs, they're actually pretty smooth in this case, so as a first test for you, they're pretty easy to study. I do amny different things to gather the info. In no particular order:
1. I make little marks on an envelope to figure out how many turns go by between event 1 and event 2.
2. I figure out what the starting values are on the various graphs of interest and how much the jumps are.
3. I compare graphs using the 3/1 setting. For example, you can put the score graph above the food graph to see how the score changes (+6) when the pop grows. I line them up using my envelope again.
4. I use the article I linked above to figure everything out.
5. After lots of comparing various stuff, I finally can write up my Zara's Demographics UPdate. The last one I did was fairly detailed.

 

[mystyfly]

Sorry guys I don't find time to participate right now, will get back to this next week. Good luck mut

 

[Silu]

Oh yeah, I somehow forgot his 3rd tech was a 40% one. There are a couple of small things: I think bonuses are applied again to overflow, so depending on how that goes that gives a couple of beakers. Also there's the 3% bonus for knowing a Civ that knows the tech (Agri), but that doesn't really do anything at this point.

Though if we assume the observations are off by a turn, giving him 13 more, and maybe a maximum of 15 from overflow double bonus... that's 499 vs 507. Hm. Of course, for all we know the mapmakers could have given him Agri/Mysti for free. I guess you accounted for power from population, so the +4 we assumed was Wheel wasn't Archer+growth+finishing another tech instead? (Couldn't wrap my mind around a scenario in which this would be "legal" for our observations)

Will team mind if I play until CS, ofcouse carefully, shot turn-sets, checking my micro on our test file after each short turn-set?

I'm fine with this, with the amount of thought and planning you have put into this

Though as you said a couple posts back, as fun as this is I'm not sure how important it is to know exactly what he's teching if we don't plan on takin the spot between us.

 

[LowtherCastle]

I'm okay on thru to CS, with periodic pauses. I'm still wondering, Mutineer, what you think about using some hammers on another settler, for example, instead of Stonehenge. IF we succeed with CS, then research won't be nearly as critical as REX. The sooner we start on 2-fish the better. Furthermore, we might get COnfucianism in there.

 

[mdy]

Playing till CS is probably for the best given the amount of micromanagement involved, provided we pause if anything unexpected happens.

 

[Mutineer]

well, I was not able to fall asleep, as I got a new idea, result Oracle with CS 1700BC.
with such early date production become limiting factor. I barely manage to find the way.

only 4 hammers were put in SH, no SH gold used.

 

[LowtherCastle]

Awesome, Mutineer!

I played your previous save further along wanting to see where Zara settled his fourth city. The barbs settled on the fps between the rice and the pigs. This is almost as bad as them settling at 2fish. I think our first priority before or after you finish CS is to ALSO get an axe sentry to the fps site. We want to keep both of those available. We can collect XP from teh barb city wherever they put it, but we don't want that to slow our main REX.

 

[LowtherCastle]

Not sure if you started playing already, Mutineer, but I'm not sure Oracle a couple turns sooner is worth postponing the granary in Delhi.