SGOTM 12 - One Short Straw

[Mitchum]

I just ran a quick calculation. If we drop out of Caste System and Pacifism at the end of this GA and are then forced to run 2 merch, 2 sci, 2 art, 1 eng and 1 spy in Pigs, our odds on T200 will be:

GM: 74%
GS: 14%
GA: 12%
GE: 5%
GSpy: 5%​

If we stay in Pacifism but drop out of CS to run Slavery, our odds on T199 will be:

GM: 77%
GS: 13%
GA: 10%
GE: 4%
GSpy: 4%​

As long as we avoid the GS (assumes we get a GM next turn), we should be fine.

So, if we choose to run Slavery, there is an 85% chance that we'll be fine (again assuming that our great person next turn is a GM).

As LC said, we don't HAVE to decide this right now. Let's wait to make a difinitive decision. However, I'd like to know which way the team is leaning so that I can make some appropriate decisions, like starting banks in hammer-rich cities (non-Slavery) vs. building them where we really want them (with Slavery).

Or, we could go the building wealth route and speed up Medicine, in which case no banks will have been started...

Maybe I can come up with a plan for the next 2 or 3 turns, which should not impact these decisions (i.e. civics, banks, etc.) too much. Then we will at least know how our espionage plan is going, what Churchill is doing, which flavor of great person we got, and be about done with Mao. Cool?

 

[bcool]

As LC said, we don't HAVE to decide this right now. Let's wait to make a difinitive decision. However, I'd like to know which way the team is leaning so that I can make some appropriate decisions, like starting banks in hammer-rich cities (non-Slavery) vs. building them where we really want them (with Slavery).

I don't think anyone is suggesting never having slavery. I would build banks where we don't have important other builds. I wouldn't personally consider the commerce too much since eventually we will be running 100% science. I'm imagining a quick GA after this one either way we go.

 

[LowtherCastle]

If we plan for Medicine on T+15,

which seems reasonable since we'll be adding the cash from capturing Nanjing+Tours+Hastings+York+London(+Marseilles), along with selling our maps for a couple hundred bucks total (Gandhi and Roosy have been willing to pay ~60g each),

then revolting to slavery on T+7 seems reasonable to me. Then we would plan to have enough population in Fish to whip the first Sushi Exec on T+16 and revolt back to CS. That gives us 11 of 12t with the +100%.

My assumption is that we will NOT whip more Sushi execs out of Fish. Instead we'll just build them 1 per turn in Moscow and perhaps build them two other places Bermuda seems good or Siberia, or whatever. Am I right in assuming we can only build/have 3 at a time, like missionaries?

That leaves us with 3 more GAs, unless this game goes longer than I think it will, in which case we'd probably have time to spam a 7th GA.

------------------

An alternative to the above, that I see, would be to not switch out of slavery, slow build banks+WS, and simply wait with our next GA till we have already spread Sushi to 10 or more cities. Then we could really spam some GPs. I'm just not sure that slowing down at this point is optimal. My gut feeling is peddle to the metal. I think we can cross the finish line without running out of gas.

 

[Mitchum]

I don't think anyone is suggesting never having slavery. I would build banks where we don't have important other builds. I wouldn't personally consider the commerce too much since eventually we will be running 100% science. I'm imagining a quick GA after this one either way we go.

Yes, I understand that we will likely run Slavery at some point. My biggest concern is whether we want to RUSH Wall Street. To really rush it, we'll need Slavery. To get it done quickly, we'll need to build banks in the cities that can build them quickly. If we don't care, we can just build them when there isn't another important thing to build as you suggested.

With that said, the point of building the banks isn't to get the commerce impact in each city that builds one. It's to unlock Wall Street, which we really want in Fish to multiply our shrine, Sid's and Mining Inc. income. Having WS in Fish makes spreading our corporations profitable as opposed to an additional drain on our economy.

EDIT: Oh, I think I understand your comment better now. You were saying that we shouldn't worry about building the banks in cities with a lot of commerce. We should instead build them where we can.

 

[babybluepants]

^^ Yes, don't build a bank in Cuba.

@LC,
You can build 5 execs at once.

 

[Mitchum]

If we plan for Medicine on T+15,

which seems reasonable since we'll be adding the cash from capturing Nanjing+Tours+Hastings+York+London(+Marseilles), along with selling our maps for a couple hundred bucks total (Gandhi and Roosy have been willing to pay ~60g each),

then revolting to slavery on T+7 seems reasonable to me. Then we would plan to have enough population in Fish to whip the first Sushi Exec on T+16 and revolt back to CS. That gives us 11 of 12t with the +100%.

Wait. Slavery instead of Caste System, right? So are you suggesting that we switch to Slavery but keep Pacifism (i.e. no OR)?

Am I right in assuming we can only build/have 3 at a time, like missionaries?

You can have up to 5 executives at any time (based on my recent BOTM, but the settings might have been slightly different). What I'm not sure about is whether trying to spread a second corporation into a city introduces the chance of failure.

An alternative to the above, that I see, would be to not switch out of slavery, slow build banks+WS, and simply wait with our next GA till we have already spread Sushi to 10 or more cities. Then we could really spam some GPs. I'm just not sure that slowing down at this point is optimal. My gut feeling is peddle to the metal. I think we can cross the finish line without running out of gas.

Agreed. I think we need to push things as fast as possible. The only thing that could hurt us is if the Ducks are doing what they are currently doing without golden ages and they are able to outbuild us at the end...

 

[babybluepants]

You can have up to 5 executives at any time (based on my recent BOTM, but the settings might have been slightly different). What I'm not sure about is whether trying to spread a second corporation into a city introduces the chance of failure.

No, but it's about 3x more expensive in terms of cash.

Edit: like LC, I was always thinking we'd do Slavery/Pac, btw.

 

[bcool]

then revolting to slavery on T+7 seems reasonable to me. Then we would plan to have enough population in Fish to whip the first Sushi Exec on T+16 and revolt back to CS.

9 turns of slavery isn't too bad I guess. (plans might change if we get an artist in Pigs)

Is it obvious that we will get significantly more hammers with slavery compared to 9turns * average # of workshops worked (the hammers we lose because we are not running caste system)?
Obviously being able to concentrate hammers in one city for important builds like WS and Versailles might be more important than the absolute number of hammers we gain/lose with slavery.

I think we can still accelerate WS with slavery if we don't switch at the end of this GA, but at the beginning of the next one. We would be finishing it near the time we plan to launch the next GA with the caste system alternative.

Edit: but if Mitchum and LC are happy with planning for a switch to slavery at the end of this GA, I'll stop arguing. Show me what a Kremlin powered slavery can do...

 

[Mitchum]

^^ Yes, don't build a bank in Cuba.

Well, if we're considering Slavery (which is still on the table), why not build one there? That is why the selection of civics can have a big impact on the next six turns...

 

[Mitchum]

Edit: like LC, I was always thinking we'd do Slavery/Pac, btw.

Here are the numbers again (assumes SP and Kremlin):

SP             49.25
OR+SP          60.25
Forge+SP       60.25
F+OR+SP        71.33

So giving up OR loses us 11 hammers/whip. Of course, add to that the loss of the 25% bonus on base hammers when building infrastructure.

If we're going to be whipping and regrowing, are we really going to benefit from the Pacifism bonus in any city other than Pigs? The OR bonus will benefit all but four of our cities. It just seems that Kremlin/Slavery/OR offers more synergy... EDIT: at the cost of an extra 30 gpp/turn in Pigs and 20 in Moscow.

EDIT 2: I don't think gpp is on our critical path right now, but I could be wrong.

 

[Mitchum]

Just so you know, I fine no matter what we do. I prefer Slavery/OR but can live with Slavery/Pacifism or Castes/Pacifism. Having an idea of what we plan to do will help me hone my PPP and city MM to match our current thinking (which is subject to change, of course)

 

[babybluepants]

BTW, I was actually hoping we could be out of Nationhood and into Bureau at the tail end of this GA. If we switch to Slavery, could we just whip maces every turn in GP Farm? Bureau's better for research, speeds up cannons without giving up sci, and we'll be done stealing for a spell.

 

[LowtherCastle]

Okay, I took a more careful look at the battle zone around Najing, Tours, and Hastings. Mitchum, you have a whole different ballgame than what we've had up to now. Your trebs should begin at above 50% odds. Imo, you're planning it waaaay too conservatively. You DoW Churchill on T+5 or T+6, I"m not sure. I have you capturing Hastings on T+6 (or T+7). And that's without breaking a sweat. Seriously.

First of all, the only units that really need to be fully healed before battle are our CRII seige. Okay. Based on your desire to have a large stack to protect Orleans and Rheims, here's how I would adapt your plans:

1. You capture Nanjing on T+2 no matter what, unless he happens to build walls and you can't tear them down in 1t with the two accuracy you have there. You can add one of those three trebs to this stack if you want, but more is surely overkill, imo. So here I don't really change anything except that if you tear down those walls on T+2, you finish the job, even against those 5 lbs. No probs. (BLame it on me if not...)

2. All the seige in Orleans, including the cannon, go to Marseilles-3W next turn. The two unhealed accuracy tear down walls just fine while damaged. Add to this stack two trebs from near Shanghai, if available (you might have sent them to Shanghai). Also add to this stack the musket from Orleans and 3 more from the Marseilles-2W stack. On T+2, DOW Chruchill and move this stack to Tours-NE. T+3 tear down cultural defense, attakc with CRII cannon and trebs, and capture with muskets. Meanwhile, you send the next 1 or 2 cannons down here. All the rest will go toward Roosy (the first few can linger between Orleans and Rheims, if you prefer). You also immediately send any undamaged trebs from Nanjing here.

3. T+4 (or T+3 if possible) send musket/mace escorted accuracy siege plus any other fully healed seige on toward Hastings. T+6 you should have enough bombarders to tear down the walls, attack with a CRII cannon and some trebs and capture. If not, then T+7. On the turn you capture Hastings, you also unload 7 wkrs+musket escort at Hastings-NW. Most of these workers you captured on T+3 from the Oxford sugar. You have four galleys available for this, because you pealed 2 off from the galley chain and built 2 more in Paris (it's in the queue losing hammers ) and Beijing. These galleys are far more valuable to our fastest finish than some people seem to think, imo. They will speed up York-London and can even be used with another fort (Hastings-3S or York-2W) to speed up the capture of Conventry. Every turn shaved off this war is huge.

T+7 (or 1t after capturing Hastings), the 4 galleys load all the accuracy seige plus CRII cannon/trebs plus minimal escorts and next land next to York on T+8. T+9 musket/mace attackers plus any extra units load onto the galleys while York gets bombarded. T+10 any remaining bombardment, then the CRII attack, then if Churchill's unit are redlined enough, our attackers capture York amphibiously.

Rinse and repeat on London.

---------------

Note that we want to send our CI and CII galleys as part of the 4 galleys. So far our wb has not spotted any Churchill triremes, only a galley. Use the wb to take note of this as it continues south and just keep going south to learn all we can about his naval vessels before we DoW on T+2.

How's that grab ya?

 

[bcool]

I'm pretty sure Bureau is worse for us. With an empire as large as ours the increased maintenance of Bureau makes it worse than Nationhood. The + happiness from barracks is actually helping us as is the espionage bonus and the ability to draft. Nationhood in my mind at least is here to stay.

 

[LowtherCastle]

Addendum:

The two forts at Beijing can be completed by T+2 if you also use the 3+1 wkrs at Guangzhou. The 3 wkrs can wokshop the plains tile at Beijing-WNW to not waster wkr-turns in between. Then they can head back to Chengdu to workshop, or whatever you had planned for them.

THen all you need is a galley and loaded musket to capture CHurchill's workers, who will appear on that sugar about 1t after CHurchill's cutlure takes it. Not sure when that will be.

You might want 2 muskets, just in case the workers are on different tiles. BUt then you'll want only one later so you can load 7 workers for a 1-turn fort onto the four galleys.

 

[LowtherCastle]

Addendum 2:
As I mentioned to bbp during his turnset, when you're attacking Nanjing, after you suicide a treb against each fully healed lb (probably 5 trebs), compare the odds for attacking with our CRIII mace versus attacking with another CRII treb. We value our maces much more highly, of course, but if the difference is something like 95% versus 75% or less, you might consider attacking with the mace. Up to you.

Also keep in mind that units don't heal next turn if you move them into a city this turn. (E.g., our damaged units in Orleans will NOT heal any next turn. They moved .3/1 this turn.) So it can be much cleverer to leave damaged units just outside the newly captured city, if they weren't used that turn, because they will heal 5%+25% if they're within 1 tile of el Cid.

Of course, you may have to move some units into the new city to protect it. BUt also bear in mind that CHurchill doesn't have Engineering yet, so his units only move two tiles. Furthermore, CHurchill has no horses, so that's also not an issue.

 

[bcool]

I guess I have to take a closer look at the war plans when I get home, but I really think 1 turn of wealth building (in select non-essential build cities) and reduced slider to upgrade 4+ treb to cannons would make
1) the wars go faster (fewer units to heal, less damage to cannons when successful most likely)
2) reduce our war weariness (fewer losses)
3) reduce our unit maintenance because we wouldn't need as many extra cannons
4) more units survive for war against Rosey (or we can divert more cannon his way earlier)

If you are tempted to build another cannon in a non-Moscow city the upgrade to cannon is cheaper! than a new cannon if you build wealth.

 

[LowtherCastle]

Addendum3:

Following up on my last point, note that you may not need to protect Tours at all. You'll have the one unit in there that captured it. Then if you have seige+escort that are ready to move on through, you can send just one escort through and it will see all the possible tile where CHruchill might have a unit that could attack Tours. If those tiles are empty, you're free to move everything straight through Tours and onward!

 

[Mitchum]

@ LC

The war plans look very compelling. Let me ponder this a bit... and then re-work my PPP again.

For the worker steal to work, we'll have to be at peace with Mao to avoid losing our galleys to his caravels (i.e. no rush on Glace de Mao since he'll be parked at St. Nicks for a bit). If Churchill has caravels in the area, we could be toast with the worker steal and galley troop movement part of the plan...

@bbp Did you note ships in Churchill's cities or were you just focused on land units?

 

[LowtherCastle]

I guess I have to take a closer look at the war plans when I get home, but I really think 1 turn of wealth building (in select non-essential build cities) and reduced slider to upgrade 4+ treb to cannons would make
1) the wars go faster (fewer units to heal, less damage to cannons when successful most likely)
2) reduce our war weariness (fewer losses)
3) reduce our unit maintenance because we wouldn't need as many extra cannons
4) more units survive for war against Rosey (or we can divert more cannon his way earlier)

If you are tempted to build another cannon in a non-Moscow city the upgrade to cannon is cheaper! than a new cannon if you build wealth.

In the plan I wrote above, I suggest sending a total of 3 (Moscow) cannons down to Churchill. The reason is because they do so much collateral damage that when followed up by our CRII trebs, I doubt those trebs will have any problems either. So I don't think we even need to bother upgrading, because that's already overkill. The three cannons will be there just about as fast as we can put together the cash for the upgrades.

In fact, I'm already wondering how many more muskets we need to draft. We've got a ton of units already. Roosy won't know what hit him.