SGOTM 12 - One Short Straw

[babybluepants]

Ok, sounds like we're going for CS. Fine with me. DG and Churchill could potentially be into PH right now, if I'm not mistaken, so we should keep a close eye on their next tech. Churchill's last few techs were at approximately 13 base bpt and the last one was done T50, which puts PH at T55-56. DG seems to have taken 19t on BW (is that right?) 8t on Mining and 7t on Fishing - that would be a rate of only 8-9 base bpt. He finished a tech on T53, at which point we already had hammers in the Oracle, correct?

EDIT: Scratch those numbers. I'm assuming our tech costs. What are the tech costs for Emp AI? (Though I guess my numbers are ok in a relative sense).

What's the best sling date we can get? (likely too busy to test play this week)

Under the circumstances, I guess I'd be ok with skipping Sail/Maso in favour of a quick library and GS in fish city. It should speed up a CS sling, too. We are unlikely to get GLH, though it would seriously suck if it's still not built in 600 BC.

 

[Soirana]

IF we focus on solid empire growth, we might easily capture GLH before it's particularly significant anyway.

xpost

If France had lighthouse built that would be plan I still think GLH> CS sling.

 

[babybluepants]

If France had lighthouse built that would be plan

That would obviously be ideal, but seems highly unlikely.

What's the opportunity cost of a GLH attempt? We can't get a quick GS and we have to delay our Oracle plan by the turns to research Sailing + Masonry (6t?)?

 

[mdy]

What's the opportunity cost of a GLH attempt? We can't get a quick GS and we have to delay our Oracle plan by the turns to research Sailing + Masonry (6t?)?

We can get a GS in the capital if we made a GLH attempt, at the expense of delaying the growth of both our current cities slightly.

Delaying the CS sling is more serious. Given that more civs than previously thought have sailing this may be a risk too far.

 

[LowtherCastle]

mdy, what your Moscow MM to get the GS asap?

bbp: Priesthood is 78b for AI.

 

[LowtherCastle]

Ok, sounds like we're going for CS. Fine with me. DG and Churchill could potentially be into PH right now, if I'm not mistaken, so we should keep a close eye on their next tech. Churchill's last few techs were at approximately 13 base bpt and the last one was done T50, which puts PH at T55-56. DG seems to have taken 19t on BW (is that right?) 8t on Mining and 7t on Fishing - that would be a rate of only 8-9 base bpt. He finished a tech on T53, at which point we already had hammers in the Oracle, correct?

My chart has another mistake: Churchill finished TW for 4K (not AH for 2K) on T55. TW took 5t and costs 78, so that's 13-15bpt, depending on overflow. PH is also 78b but gets the 20% bonus, so PH would probably be 4-5t, depending on overflow.

Yes, dG needed 19t for BW, cost: 156b, which would be ~7base-bpt. So PH might be 9-10t at that rate. That's hard to believe.

================

I'll put together a little workout for us to use to monitor their tech progress.

 

[mdy]

mdy, what your Moscow MM to get the GS asap?

In the save I posted I went:

Grow to size 5, then work both gold mines, cows and hire 1 scientist. Novogrod works fish.
T65 Novogrod grows to size 2, works gold, hire another scientist.

This gives us a GS at 875 B.C. (T80)

This can be speeded up, either by Stagnating Novogrod at size 1, or by not working the second gold for 5 tuns we could get the GS on T77 (950B.C.)

 

[babybluepants]

My chart has another mistake: Churchill finished TW for 4K (not AH for 2K) on T55. TW took 5t and costs 78, so that's 13-15bpt, depending on overflow. PH is also 78b but gets the 20% bonus, so PH would probably be 4-5t, depending on overflow.

I didn't realize he had another tech this turn. PH actually sounds kinda likely. He'd only have a 1.04 discount on Wheel, which would put him at about 13 base bpt (with good OF from Masonry), after researching Masonry at max 9.5, and Poly/BW at about 11. He did 2-pop whip after BW, which would explain the slowdown during Masonry. PH would be 11 base bpt (1.24 discount).

 

[LowtherCastle]

Churchill  de Gaulle  Gandhi
---------  ---------  ------
agri  78b  sail 130b  sail
pott 104b  pott       medi 104b
AH   130b  AH         AH 
PH    78b  PH         poly 130b
Mono 156b  Msny 104b  wtg  156b
---------  ---------  ---------
14basebpt  7basebpt   11basebpt

We shouldn't have any problem determining which tech they researched, once they complete it. Churchill is not using his espionage slider at all. De Gaulle has his at 20%, or maybe 10%, most of the time. Neither of them threaten with anything but archers. Either they haven't hooked up copper, or they ought to be prioritizing AH or IW for better units. Unless starting out at war changed that all around.

 

[babybluepants]

You didn't reply to my post above. Am I wrong? How do you know he got Wheel?

There are also various discounts:

Churchill  de Gaulle  Gandhi
---------  ---------  ------
agri  [color=red]78b[/color]  sail [color=red]108b[/color]  sail
pott [color=red]87b[/color]  pott       medi [color=red]84b[/color]
AH   [color=red]105b[/color]  AH         AH 
PH    [color=red]63b[/color]  PH         poly [color=red]108b[/color]
Mono [color=red]130b[/color]  Msny [color=red]87b[/color]  wtg  [color=red]126b[/color]
---------  ---------  ---------
14basebpt  7basebpt   11basebpt

 

[LowtherCastle]

You didn't reply to my post above. Am I wrong? How do you know he got Wheel?

There are also various discounts:

Sorry, I misunderstood your post, thinking you were talking about his upcoming tech.

There was a power change of 17K reported on T55. 12K to Stalin for his grenadier, 1K to Mao for growing to pop6, leaving 4K. I'm assuming Churchill got TW. I doubt anyone's building warriors anymore. Two walls completed on the same turn is highly unlikely. There's nothing else I can find to account for 4K.

TW makes sense for Churchill if he's trying to connect copper or other resource.

--------------

I put basebpt on the chart because of possible bonuses for techs. I"ve probably used the word 'discounts' before, but it's really a bonus. It's multiplied by the total beakers for the turn and then rounded down.

 

[LowtherCastle]

Guys, are we still debating?
1. Currency+GLH
2. CS
3. CS+GLH
I guess bcool, bbp, and I have agreed on 2. mdy, would you still prefer 3? Soirana prefers 1 (or 3?), I take it. Not sure about you, Mitchum, still on teh fence between 2 and 3? Any other buyers?

 

[Mitchum]

Guys, are we still debating?
1. Currency+GLH
2. CS
3. CS+GLH
I guess bcool, bbp, and I have agreed on 2. mdy, would you still prefer 3? Soirana prefers 1 (or 3?), I take it. Not sure about you, Mitchum, still on teh fence between 2 and 3? Any other buyers?

I'm fine with 2. Like bbp, it would really suck if the GLH goes really late, but we have to make a decision and move on... A CS sling is always a good option when possible.

 

[bcool]

I'm good with 2, but I think there is a real chance that we will have to abort to Currency.

Churchill could easily be connecting marble and could be building the oracle very soon, and De Gaulle could still research Phood like the test game and force us to abort. The CS sling is by no means guaranteed but I think it is our best chance.

 

[babybluepants]

I'm not at all convinced about skipping GLH. I ok'd (2) in the interest of moving this game along, because CS seems to be the sudden near-consensus, and I'm worried about losing the Oracle race.

@LC,
Can you post all the screenshots from your TS so far. I potentially have different explanations for score/power, but I need F9 info to check.

 

[mdy]

I've been doing a bit of playing around and the chances of getting the GLH look like they are very low. I therefore think we should abandon it in order to maximise our chances of getting the CS sling.

 

[Soirana]

I've been doing a bit of playing around and the chances of getting the GLH look like they are very low. I therefore think we should abandon it in order to maximise our chances of getting the CS sling.

matter of taste i guess.

GLH dates are usually very variable even on similarly looking maps.
The facts which go against it is that lot of AI went for early fishing/sailing which might mean some coastal caps.
The main fact pro it looks like it would be very good wonder on this map.
We already have conclusion what if want guaranteed it, we need settle cap on coast.

No question is if we want to risk trying for it. Personally i probably would, but is opportunistic call.

I am fine with any option you vote for. Not planing installing Buffy and playing anyway.

 

[mdy]

I agree that it would be very good wonder, and if the only risk involved was "wasting" 20 turns of production in Novogrod I would still go for it, however risking the CS sling by delaying it by 6 turns is a gamble too far for me.

 

[LowtherCastle]

I'm not at all convinced about skipping GLH. I ok'd (2) in the interest of moving this game along, because CS seems to be the sudden near-consensus, and I'm worried about losing the Oracle race.

@LC,
Can you post all the screenshots from your TS so far. I potentially have different explanations for score/power, but I need F9 info to check.

Good news and bad. I forgot to save the 1960BC save, but I wrote down the F9 data for it:

     GNP Ham Food Sold  Land Pop   App LE
OSS  43  13  15    16   31    44   64  46
Max  25  13  18   247   32   337   60  57
Ave  20  10  14    76.6 17.5 136.6 54  47
Min  18   3   6    34    7    21   50  40
Rank  1   3   5     7    2     6    1   5

I'm attaching the other saves.

 

[LowtherCastle]

The facts which go against it is that lot of AI went for early fishing/sailing which might mean some coastal caps.

We already know that at least five of six AIs have coastal capitals. The sixth, Gandhi, has only 17/21 land tiles in his bfc, so he is on a lake or cosst.

I agree that it would be very good wonder, and if the only risk involved was "wasting" 20 turns of production in Novogrod I would still go for it, however risking the CS sling by delaying it by 6 turns is a gamble too far for me.

I agree. Frankly, after checking the research of Churchill, we might not even beat him to it for Currency if he beelines it.

I have the same results on GLH. We might not even accumulate very much failed gold on it. My testing also had plenty of failed Oracles, btw. I highly doubt there is anything in the code stopping the AIs from reseearching PH and building the Oracle if we beat them to PH or put a hammer in the Oracle. My hunch is that that's a fairy tale.