SGOTM 12 - One Short Straw

Some thoughts and possible synthesis of our discussion for bcool's turnset

Macro Rationale:
1. Having six cities ready for uni-Oxford will take time.
2. Gems/Stone and Paris/Moai are valuable asap.
3. A 100%-GS for Educ somewhere relieves pressure from the Moscow GProphet threat.
4. (Later: Hopefully use Pacifism+CS or Parthenon for 2-3 more GSes for PP/Chem/SciMeth.)
5. If we want to keep Rheims, we need to let dG build the road (but then Rheims can build metal units :eek:).
6. In general, our cities want granary+forge+library+ch, (coastal: +lh).

Possible short-term strategy:
0. No whipping in Moscow. This should be a rule, imo.
1. MC-Machinery
2. REX GP Farm+2 overseas.
3. Only build enough units for worker stealing (and minimal defense).
4. Let Rheims have road to Paris.
5. Build another 100%-GS. (Fish or Pigs)
6. Build Colossus in city not working 2sci. (Pigs or Fish)
7. Continue growing Moscow to MaxPop and improving tiles for research.
8. A market in Moscow is a fairly high priority, because 100% science will be difficult during REX.

Micro
1. With MC asap, Colossus city should poprush forge asap after granary, then put maxhammers from poprushes into Colossus.
2. Balance 2 overseas asap with sensible growth of other cities.
3. Exploring workboats: Current priority is defogging our possible settlements closest to Moscow. This includes thoroughly defogging that SE island before going further east, imo, so we know whether we want one or two cities there. (After that, the priority is more distant exploration and possible circumnavigation.)
4. Getting 3 settlers in Moscow might work better if overflows go into partial settler builds. (just a thought, I haven't tried anything yet...)
5. ???

Alternative tech path
Aesth-MC-Machinery. If we don't view Moscow as a GP spammer, then Parthenon 2GA:gp: there aren't so bad. This might enable us to produce our early 100%-GSes without Pacifism. Then we might be able to get Philosophy in trade, if Angkor gets built soon enough.

Question
1. bbp, can we get +3 Cautious with Roosy now by your best estimate?
 
I'll be away and unable to post for the next week.


I still think that we would be better going for metal casting first, adn I am O.K. with building the Collosus if we have the spare production for it. Would it be worth trading for masonry so that we could make an attempt at the Hanging Gardens to start building GE points in a city?

I don't think we need to worry about De Gaulle connecting Rheims to his trade network. It's production is so low it will probably never build a metal unit for him regardless of what we do.

In general I agree with LC's long term goals, and MC-machinery strategy.
 
CUrrent worker stealing scenarios
Okay, I used ZPV's formula to estimate the likelihood of us getting a ceasefire capturing 1 or two workers, and losing a unit to dG. Using the average AI power of 149 and ours of 52, we should be able to get a ceasefire even if dG is somewhat above the average. As we build the chariot and get some more power (IW, axes, rax, etc.) this will get easier, even if he's building more units. So ceasefire is probably not the big issue. The big issue is not losing a unit so we can talk quickly. We should keep our chariots together for that reason.

Now, there's also the issue of teleporting. We can use this to our advantage. From testing and calculations using a probably correct formula, here is the teleporting situation around Rheims:

attachment.php


In general, we want our workers on Tiles 3 or 4 to teleport east. Chariots on Tile 1 to go west. Based on this, the best solution I can come up with is this:

attachment.php


Keys to remember:
1. We want a unit within 2 tiles of city for cheaper DoP w/Church and ceasefire w/DG (mandatory).
2. At the start of T102, you can check to make sure dG will ceasefire before moving your worker to dangerous location on turn of ceasefire. Just don't cease fire yet!!! :)
3. IF ceasefire is assured, you don't need to worry about worker safety the turn you are planning to ceasefire/teleport.
4. Keep the two chariots together as much as possible to keep them safe.
5. If there is only one archer in Lyons, the warrior should be safe to go SW to Lyons-1N.

----------
Note: The reason I say "probably correct formula" for the teleporting is that I'm not sure when the rounding occurs. Otherwise, the formula is correct. I don't know where the formula is in the code to verify the rounding.
.
 

Attachments

  • SG12 T100 teleporting.JPG
    SG12 T100 teleporting.JPG
    66.6 KB · Views: 306
  • SG12 T100+ wkr steal plan.JPG
    SG12 T100+ wkr steal plan.JPG
    100.1 KB · Views: 285
Great work on the teleporting stuff, LC! :goodjob:

Sounds like we're set on Aest/Lit/MC/Mach.

Has anyone tried testing for Oxford? It intuitively seems that our expansion/growth is well behind tech. I'm still a bit reluctant to tech Machinery, though, as I think that Construction is basically as good for our purposes and I generally don't like to spend too many beakers pre-Edu. The proposed island city will never build a University. Silver probably won't either, though I was hoping it might with sufficient worker turns invested early. Are we intending to use a French city? I'm not sure I understand what that timeline would be.

I think our research rate will drop significantly post 1AD, especially if we engage in substantial warfare.
 
LC, If you send the warrior towards Churchill that is a much bigger risk than splitting up the chariots. De Gaulle had an archer 2N of Tours. We might blindly walk the warrior adjacent to the archer and then we lose a battle and delay the ceasefire.

I think the warrior is more valuable as MP for either Pigs or Fish which will run into happiness issues in about 15-20 turns depending on our whipping strategies.

In testing I had good success taking both workers and walking them out with a chariots protection. I know there might be differences in the real game but it will take De Gaulle some time before he gets 2+ archers to attack a chariot protecting the worker. Or do you think he has 4+ archers in Rheims right now?

We can take the worker NNE of Rheims with 1 chariot and based on your teleporting guide on T102 we can get the 2nd worker with the warrior and a chariot to the hill 2N of Rheims and teleport to safety with the ceasefire.

While I wait for a response to this I will work on a PPP that incorporates the recent feedback.

The value of the Parthenon is competitive with the Great Library if we have 3 cities or more cities with producing an average of 10 :gp: over the next 60 turns.

We can get it built by ~120
We will have Scientific Method by ~180
That gives us 60 turns of benefits
We will have maybe 3 cities that will produce great people
so for 20 turns we have maybe 6 :gp: * 0.5 then for next 40 turns we might have 12 :gp: * 0.5 so...
Parthenon gives us 20*3*3 + 40*6*3 = 900 :gp: spread out over 3 cities (and 180 :gp: from the Parthenon itself)
Building the NE in one of these cities will make capitalizing on all of these :gp: difficult however...

The GL in the same time gives us 480 :gp: in one city. (which could be doubled by the NE)

edit: x-post with bbp
 
Sounds like we're set on Aest/Lit/MC/Mach.

Has anyone tried testing for Oxford? It intuitively seems that our expansion/growth is well behind tech. I'm still a bit reluctant to tech Machinery, though, as I think that Construction is basically as good for our purposes and I generally don't like to spend too many beakers pre-Edu. The proposed island city will never build a University. Silver probably won't either, though I was hoping it might with sufficient worker turns invested early. Are we intending to use a French city? I'm not sure I understand what that timeline would be.

I think our research rate will drop significantly post 1AD, especially if we engage in substantial warfare.

I don't think we are set on Aest/Lit/MC/Mach

I was thinking MC/Aest/...

and I think LC proposed either MC/Mach or Aest/MC/Mach
I think MC/Aest is better if we want to keep our options open and plan to build the Colossus.
 
TGL is 10x > Parthenon because you can't actually use the spread-out gpp.

Colossus is a dubious wonder. I don't think non-seafood, non-lake coast is worth working (almost) ever. It's better to just whip off that citizen or assign it as a specialist, imho. We might well need to work some extra commerce here and there if we over-expand, but still... We have plenty of other useful ways to invest hammers right now.

Should we maybe try to squeeze in a few warriors for MP before copper?

I'll let the rest of the team decide on tech path...
 
@bbp
Construction is the tech we will most likely be able to trade for imo. And with only axes and catapults we will likely lose units, potentially dragging out the war.

@mdy
If De Gaulle connects Rheims, then he can whip a metal unit there. Or move his stack there if he is planning an assault on us. He could also easily be planning an amphibious assault on Galley City.
 
Even if we only work seafood resources and Moai city ocean tiles the Colossus gives us pretty darn good return on investment...

We have 5 ocean resources we will work within 20 or so turns (with plans to settle islands) plus eventually ~10 ocean tiles in Moai cities (builds up slowly)

Collossus will last maybe 60 turns after it is built ~125. 5*60 + average of 5 from Moai city*60 = 600 commerce. for a cost of 125 hammers (after copper discount). Plus its 2 :gp: great merchant points.

I don't think the GL is x10 better than the Parthenon. There is a real chance to use those great people points in Pigs, the future GP farm site, Moscow, and maybe Fish. If we manipulate the Great People Production it isn't too hard to slow one city down and accelerate one city temporarily to make sure we get a lot out of the Parthenon.

I'm not saying the Parthenon is better, I'm just saying that it is competitive.
 
@bbp
Construction is the tech we will most likely be able to trade for imo. And with only axes and catapults we will likely lose units, potentially dragging out the war.
Not cats and axes - WE. Catapults drag out the war?! Against Stonehenge and a whole crapload of archers?

TGL > Parthenon > Colossus, as far as I'm concerned. I'm not sure why we're suddenly building multiple mediocre wonders, after we had to argue over even just building TGL last week. Or, why merchant points are so important, when you're arguing for GE odds and we've already made a case for GS bulbing over GM missions in the mid term.

The issue is that we can use hammers for settlers and workers right now, as well as basic infrastructure. We're already rushing some axemen 10t ahead of Machinery, spending 2x120h on forges and founding awkward no-hammer cities for a marginal gain in TR income. None of that seems very good to me, but I'm not sure how to argue against it effectively and I haven't had much time for play-testing.

Obviously, we disagree and you won't convince me that this is the correct path. So, I'll just take a day to cool off and let you play your set, so we can proceed further.
 
Regarding the GLib, IF we are going to build it, the sooner the better, right. So IF we plan to build it, we almost surely need to go Aesth -> Literature. Also, where do we plan to build it? If we put it in Moscow, we will almost surely get 1 GPro before getting GSs at any reasonable odds, assuming you think 80% odds are reasonable (6 GS gpp coming from two free GSs plus 2 GS gpp coming from the GLib vs. 2 GPro gpp coming from the Oracle -> 8/10 = 80% GS gpp).

Regarding the Parthenon, do we really think we'll be running scientists in 3 cities? I doubt it since they are mostly virgin cities (i.e. Pigs, GP Farm, off-shore cities) and will all have a lot of infrastructure to build via the whip (granary, forge, library, ch, lh). I don't see us running specialists in a lot of cities other than Fish to make it worthwhile.

Regarding the Colussus, I can see a benefit to building it since it takes so few hammers to build. However, I think I would rather have 4 axes than the Colossus, especially since its useful life is so short (~60 turns per bcool) yet those 4 axes could translate into capturing Gems + another city from De Gaulle that much sooner.

Regarding warfare, axes and swords vs. archers (5 or 6 vs. 3) is better than maces vs longbows (8 vs. 6). Obviously, maces vs. archers is the best possible scenario, but I'm not sure how long that condition would last. So, as I see it, we have two options if we want to ice ball De Gaulle soon: axe/sword rush him before he learns Feudalism or beeline Machinery while we REX and/or build infrastructure and then attack him with maces vs. archers during the small window that we have.

I think De Gaulle's archer N+N of Tours was heading toward Tours for MP duty. I don't think he's wandering around anywhere.

Regarding research, I think if we beeline Education, we won't be ready to build 6 universities because our research is ahead of our REX as bbp stated. Also, where are we going to put Oxford anyway? Does it make more sense to wait and put it in one of the AI's capitals? I'm not sure, but Moscow doesn't seem like the ideal place for it.

EDIT: x-post with bbp.
 
Not cats and axes - WE. Catapults drag out the war?! Against Stonehenge and a whole crapload of archers?

Excellent point. I forgot that we have ivory. I think war elephants could be huge, especially since we could get them way ahead of macemen, plus they are a bit cheaper to build. I think researching Construction next is better than MC -> Machinery, at least in terms of our war effort.

TGL > Parthenon > Colossus, as far as I'm concerned. I'm not sure why we're suddenly building multiple mediocre wonders, after we had to argue over even just building TGL last week. Or, why merchant points are so important, when you're arguing for GE odds and we've already made a case for GS bulbing over GM missions in the mid term.

In general, I agree with bbp here. The GLib (TGL is to close to The Great Lighthouse) is a great wonder in a science-based game like this one. I'm just unsure of where to build it.

The issue is that we can use hammers for settlers and workers right now, as well as basic infrastructure. We're already rushing some axemen 10t ahead of Machinery, spending 2x120h on forges and founding awkward no-hammer cities for a marginal gain in TR income. None of that seems very good to me, but I'm not sure how to argue against it effectively and I haven't had much time for play-testing.

Are you suggesting that we not settle two off-coast cities? It seems like a very cheap way to nearly double our trade route income.

Obviously, we disagree and you won't convince me that this is the correct path. So, I'll just take a day to cool off and let you play your set, so we can proceed further.

No, I think it's best to at least come to some kind of agreement here before moving on, so I want you to keep fighting, bbp, bcool and the rest. This feels like a major inflection point in our game. Making the best decision now will pay off big time and could be a winning (or losing) decision.
 
TGL vs. Parthenon Analysis

I'm taking a game-specific analysis and the goal is Communism asap to allow for MaxAsap REX. So the question is, how do we get 3 or preferably 4 GSes asap and reliably? I see three routes:

1. TGL: We get GSes from Moscow at ~50% for GS1, then 80% for the rest.
2. Parthenon: 100% if we can beat the GPs in Moscow.
3. Pacifism: 100% if we can beat the GPs in Moscow.

To me, the only question is, which way gives us the GSes we need with the best balance for our game. I don't care about the hammers or beakers or anything else, because I think that's relatively trivial compared to the massive benefit of State Property. One more detail: I don't like NE in Moscow. I think it should go in GP Farm. Our primary GP spamming happens later on. Our only goal with GP spamming now is Communism asap, preferably with the fewest GSes possible without slowing our teching. The rest of our GPs are primarily for golden ages the last 48-60t of the game (including Taj Mahal) and two corporations. After SP, we shouldn't need GMs anyway presumably.

Assuming Parthenon on T120, per bcool:
Spoiler :
Code:
      GPPs 
Turn# Moscow   Fish    Pigs   GpFarm   Notes
----- ------- ------- ------- -------  -----
T100   86/200   2/200
T105                                   hire 2sci in Fish
T114                                   hire 2sci in Pigs
T120  126/200  92/200  54/200          hire 2sci in GP Farm; Parthenon completed
T132  198/200 [COLOR="Blue"]200/200[/COLOR] 162/200 108/200  GS1
T148  294/300 144/300 [COLOR="blue"]306/300[/COLOR] 252/300  GS2
T165  396/400 297/400   --    [COLOR="blue"]405/400[/COLOR]  GS3
T176  462/500 396/500                  Caste systems (if GS4 needed) 
T182  498/500 [COLOR="blue"]504/500[/COLOR]                  GS4
Note that I haven't done any workout on how to actually work those 2sci in Fish, Pigs, and GP Farm on those turns. We'd be smart to think that out. That's what we did in SG10. Wired the whole program in advance (8 GSes in that game...;)).

We could do the same workouts for TGL and Pacifism, although the last one is complicated by having to research Pacifism.

Note: I will revise this post with analyses for the other two paths. Please check back.
.
 
I'm just testing out ideas. I missed the WE part of your plan. I can test that next. I don't have to play in 24 hours I just wanted to...

But in the mean time this is my interpretation of LC's plan

Went MC/Aest/Machinery/Lit

Close to building the Parthenon in Moscow, and the Colossus in Fish
A late start on the GS in Siberia, (Pigs might have been better here...)

edit: x post with LC (will try 2 more maybe, one with more GS in Fish and Pigs, and one where I try conquest with elephants)

The problem with WE is that De Gaulle has iron, I haven't had that much success in the past with WE against Spears
 
Espionage / Tech Trading with the AI

Don't forget that the AI started with the following techs:

Code:
Gandhi  Alphabet
Roos    Constitution
DeG     Nationalism
Mao     Communism
Church  Industrial tech - Possibly Physics to remove the free GS
Stalin  Military Science + 2 ancient or 1 classical tech

We can get these techs via trade, espionage or self-research. My guess is that it will be hard to get most of them via trade due to our poor relations with everyone (soon to be worse once they've been ice balled) and the fact that most AI won't trade monopoly techs unless Friendly.

So, since we've targeted Communism as a key tech, is there an easy way to steal it from Mao in a way that would be cheaper than self researching it?

Right now, we are not assigning epp to Mao, so he isn't assigning too many points to us (426 so far). It currently would cost a 212 epp to steal a tech from Mao. Does it make sense to keep 0 epp on Mao until a few turn before learning Scientific Method and then switching to 100% Espionage toward Mao such that we have enough epp on him to steal Communism (of course we would have a spy having sat in his city for 5 turns by this point). Or does it make more sense to start slowly assigning points to Mao (50/50 with Gandhi) so that we have close to enough when the time comes (assumes Mao doesn't start assigning more on us).

Food for thought...
 
Just had a thought:

Would it be possible to build TGL+NE in Pigs, then farm everything there?

Pigs/Fish/Rice/3grass = +16fpt @ pop 6 --> 8 scientists at pop 14.

GP Farm is obviously better for food, but couldn't possibly build TGL. It beats Pigs for base food only after pop 16, and we could save two forests in Pigs for NP, as well as benefit from the TGL/NE combo much sooner.

Edit: I'm guessing it would take damn near forever to build TGL there.
 
@LC

In your analysis, where did you build the Parthenon and did you include the gpp generated from that in our calculations?

Also, unless we attack De Gaulle soon, I wouldn't be surprised if he made a run at the Taj Mahal before we have a chance because he started with Nationalism. Actually, if he starts building it may be a good thing because I doubt he could finish it before we take him down. We'd know well in advance that he started it due to the huge value to sabotage his production.
 
bcool, what's your estimated completion date for TGL if we go that route? T120?

I missed the Lyons-2N archer. That means that SW route is unsafe altogether obviously. The point is to not scare the western worker away from roading, so you could try T100-1S(after DoW); T101-1NE. I think that will allow the worker to continue his planned roading. BUt obviously, T101 and beyond depends on what dG does with his units... ;)
 
Back
Top Bottom