SGOTM 12 - One Short Straw

[ZPV]

I've found all the necessary formulas for determining the cost of peace. We need to know the rivals' power values.

Churchill (Fish+Mini) 8000 + 2k for Hunting
Mao (Agri+Mini) 8000 + 2k for Hunting
Gandhi (Mini+Myst) 8000 + 6k for Alphabet and Hunting
De Gaulle (Agri+Wheel) 12000 + 2k for Hunting, -2k for miscalculation (Wheel is only 4k)
Roosevelt (Agri+Fish) 6000 + 2k for Hunting

Spoiler workings :

half-ceasefire: We pay
(100+(ourCities+theirCities)*3+ourpop+theirpop+theirsuccess)
*(Theirpower+10)/(OurPower+TheirPower+10)
--------------------------------------
forDaggerAIs: *9*Theirpower/10*OurPower
forAIsw/morelandthanus: *Theirland/Ourland*.9
forWarPlanAIs: *35*TheirPower/10*(OurPower+4*TheirPower)
forTotalWarAI: *2
eitherDogpileAI: *1.5
---------------------------------------
if theirendangeredcities>ourendangeredcities /3
round down to nearest 10

half-peace treaty, we pay in addition:
(50+Turn+(OurCities+TheirCities)*8)
*3(Annoyed) or *5(Furious)
*40/(Turnsatwar+10)

The treaty doesn't matter too much - it costs us both the same, so I won't calculate it as it has no effect on the trade.

Their warsuccess = 42. Our warsuccess = 10

Powers: 284 total.
Stalin 230
DG: 12
Church: 10
Mao: 10
Gandhi: 14
Roos: 8
Us: 4

After settling (and we won't have a chance before that)
Gandhi:
We pay
150*24/28 = 120 for the CF
He pays
118*14/28 = 50 for the CF
so atm we owe 70 value in tech (likely to change)

Roos:
We pay
150*18/22 = 120 for the CF
He pays
118*14/22 = 70 for the CF
so atm we owe 50 value in tech

Mao, Church:
We pay
150*20/24 = 120 for the CF
He pays
118*14/24 = 60 for the CF
so atm we owe 60 value in tech

DG:
We pay
150*22/26 = 120 for the CF
He pays
118*14/26 = 60 for the CF
so atm we owe 60 value in tech

Stalin
We pay
150* 240/244 = 140 for the CF
He pays
118*14/244 = 0 for the CF
so atm we owe 140 value in tech

To get peace immediately after founding a city, we would have to pay:
Roosevelt 50g
Churchill, Mao or De Gaulle 60g
Gandhi 70g
Stalin 140g
That'll be one or two cheap techs.

 

[LowtherCastle]

@ ErkonAnd how you managed to give an AI a project?

WTH? Is this guy loony or is there some way to know some AI has a project? I can't figure it out.

 

[babybluepants]

Writing can be done in the T35-T50 era, for peace with Gandhi.
What are the formulas for +1 peace and +1 / +2 OB plusmods? How many turns?

 

[Mitchum]

WTH? Is this guy loony or is there some way to know some AI has a project? I can't figure it out.

I was wondering the same thing... about the project, not about BLubmuz' sanity...

 

[ZPV]

WTH? Is this guy loony or is there some way to know some AI has a project? I can't figure it out.

You can probably see on the Wonders/Top5Cities page. I'll check it now.

 

[ZPV]

Writing can be done in the T35-T50 era, for peace with Gandhi.
What are the formulas for +1 peace and +1 / +2 OB plusmods? How many turns?

60 turns' peace, 25/50 turns' OB

 

[ZPV]

WTH? Is this guy loony or is there some way to know some AI has a project? I can't figure it out.

Old Russia has the Manhattan Project.

 

[bcool]

peace with Stalin just got a little more important...

 

[ZPV]

peace with Stalin just got a little more important...

He still needs Rocketry and Fission to build ICBMs - he can't have these since his score would be higher. Even Fission alone wouldn't be enough - he needs Physics to see the Uranium.

 

[Mitchum]

OK, I figured out the tech situation based on the scores. Assuming Erkon didn't take away any of the normal Emperor-level starting techs for each leader, each leader was given a tech from the following era:

Gandhi: Alphabet
De Gaulle: 1 Renaissance tech
Roosevelt: 1 Renaissance tech
Churchill: 1 Industrial tech
Mao: 1 Industrial tech
Stalin: 1 Modern tech

The techs given must not add any soldiers (except for Stalin, whose excess power includes unit and possibly a tech). So, the possible techs for each era are:

Renaissance:

Economics
Liberalism
Printing Press
Corporation
Education
Nationalism
Replaceable Parts
Military Tradition
Constitution
Democracy​

Industrial:

Fascism
Scientific Method
Steam Power
Communism
Biology
Railroad
Physics
Medicine
Electricity​

Modern (includes techs that add soldiers):

Mass Media
Refrigeration
Radio (4K soldiers)
Flight (8K soldiers)
Satellites (4K soldiers)
Ecology
Plastics
Rocketry (10K soldiers)
Computers
Composites (5K soldiers)
Robotics
Fiber Optics
Genetics
Fusion​

I was working from an old spreadsheet that I had that listed techs by era, so any techs added in BtS that were not present in Vanilla may be missing from the list. Sorry…

Any guesses on which techs each AI received?

 

[Mitchum]

He still needs Rocketry and Fission to build ICBMs - he can't have these since his score would be higher. Even Fission alone wouldn't be enough - he needs Physics to see the Uranium.

Based on Stalin's starting power, it's very likely that he started with several ICBMs, which don't qualify as "biological units" and thus survived the recent nuclear holocaust. But as ZPV said, at least he can't build any more until he learns the required techs, which won't happen in this game if we can help it...

 

[Mitchum]

@ZPV & BBP

Actually, if BBP's calculation for soldiers was off by 2K for the Wheel, then either an AI other than Stalin has a unit that gives 2K soldiers or a tech worth 2K, right?

I'm typing this on my phone, slowly I might add, so I don't have access to Civ or my files...

 

[babybluepants]

No, ZPV's is correct.

 

[Mitchum]

No, ZPV's is correct.

OK. Then my list of Ren. and Indust. techs above should include all 2K soldier techs as well, which I don’t have access to at the moment.

 

[LowtherCastle]

Erkon: "The earth is covered in pollution"

1. We need tech hypotheses for 1) all AIs with Ecology and 2) some AIs without. Then we figure out for each hypothesis what indicators will distinguish one from the other. Then we can watch for those indicators in the upcoming turns and figure out what's true.

2. THen we also need to figure out how that knowledge affects our strategy. Only then does all this become useful.

3. The same goes for fallout around the various AIs: Two hypotheses. 1) Indicators. 2) Consequences for strategy.

THis way we can maximize our Oracle chances, REX chances, etc. Once we have finished analyzing the opening save, we can make a post summarizing everything, along with our strategy.

 

[ZPV]

OK. Then my list of Ren. and Indust. techs above should include all 2K soldier techs as well, which I don’t have access to at the moment.

No, my list of techs takes care of all the power visible, except for the 230k.
Archery is worth 6k, and only one opponent has The Wheel.

 

[bcool]

So anyone want to bet the AI have all the techs necessary to build nukes, but spread out among them all.

Physics and Fission are Industrial --> Churchill and Mao
Rocketry is Modern --> Stalin

And Techs to make it easier to trade them with each other (Gandhi -- alphabet)

They would need the prerequisites to trade them so maybe the renaissance techs, so...
Printing Press? and Astronomy? --> De Gaulle and Roosevelt

They don't all have the prerequisites, so they couldn't trade them right away. But with the necessary techs and some of the prerequisites spread out like this, I would assume the AI have a good chance of putting it together unless we are very careful. This seems like a neat thing to do. I don't know Erkon well, but his Avatar is a clue...

Just speculation...

 

[bcool]

Did a little research to test my hypothesis about the unknown techs

Astronomy give 4k soldiers so I'm not sure if that disqualifies it for a possible tech that De Gaulle or Roosevelt has.

Rocketry gives 10k soldiers (and allows SAM infantry even without any other techs) Seems unlikely that Stalin would have the ability to build SAM infantry right from the beginning.

Edit: Fission also gives 8k soldiers so that might also be impossible for Mao or Churchill as well if we have accounted for all the soldiers except Stalin's 230k soldiers.

 

[LowtherCastle]

One guess is that Erkon picked techs that are on our tech path, that don't give the AI anything noticeable (like a civic they might switch into), so that we could use EPPs to steal the tech. He might even have picked juicy techs, like Education and Superconductors. THis would fall in line with the theme of Russians loving espionage. Furthermore, giving Gandhi Alpha enables to start running spies sooner, to counteract having all AIs start with their EPPs set to us.

Or maybe he picked techs that ARE noticeable, for those who pay attention and try to run a partial EPP economy.

 

[ZPV]

I'd tentatively rule out any techs that unlock expensive wonders or projects.
The AI isn't clever enough not to start a 200-turn Space Elevator with its only city.