SGOTM 12 - One Short Straw

and we've suicided 70ish warriors against enemy Modern Armour.

I guess in Erkon's twisted mind, Modern Armor doesn't require biological units to work... :D

EDIT: Actually, it looks like he deleted these units, otherwise the soldier numbers would be off.

With all of these battles, will we start with a bunch of War Weariness? Unless they happened in the wilderness, I guess, but there should still be some effect...
 
LC, the formula is
[1 + (Baseresearch*[100+30*KnownTeamsWTech/TeamsAlive+20*Prereqs]/100)]
where I've used [] to indicate the floor (rounding down to the nearest integer)

According to the article that LC linked, shouldn't the TeamsAlive actually be the number of Civs that started the game, including our team? If so, then this number remains constant throughout the game, even if Civs are eliminated...
 
LC, the formula is
[1 + (Baseresearch*[100+30*KnownTeamsWTech/TeamsAlive+20*Prereqs]/100)]
where I've used [] to indicate the floor (rounding down to the nearest integer)
I have two questions:
1. Should there be a FLOOR around [30*KnownTeamsWTech/TeamsAlive]?
2. I'm having a problem with your equation. Using the test save, if I set us to 9 base hammers (work the forest), the GNP tells me we'll get 12 beakers for Masonry. If I hit <enter> we indeed get 12 beakers. BUt your equation tells me we'll get 11 beakers (if I coded it right).
Code:
Your equation:

ROUNDDOWN[ [COLOR="Blue"]1 +[/COLOR] (9  * ROUNDDOWN{100 + 30*0/7 + (20*1),0}/100),0] = 11


Adding the free beaker to the base before multiplying by the bonus:

ROUNDDOWN[[COLOR="blue"](1 +  9)[/COLOR] * ROUNDDOWN{100 + 30*0/7 + (20*1),0}/100 ,0] = 12
                !                       !         ! 
                !                       !         ! 
                !                       !         ! 
               base                   #Know     Masonry
You add the free beaker after the bonus, in the link, it gets added before. Can you check which is correct?
 
@LC: It should be added before. I didn't count the number of close-brackets properly. :blush:
 
My count is this:
1. We exploded 40 nukes total.

2. We suicided 14 warriors against each AI's modern armours. We nuked each AI once (-2 negmods). What does that make the cost of DoP?

3. We have 97 WW points with each AI, for a total WW of 582.
==>ActiveWW*Population/500=582/500=1.164, so we have 1:mad: until we lose 83 WW points, right? SInce we'll lose at least 6 pts/turn, we lose that :mad: in 14t, right?
 
Should be before - your second equation is correct. GNP is typically always 12 (10 x 1.2) in this situation.

Actually, GNP is around 20 and includes culture and espionage outputs as well. The formula already calculates the 1.2 factor in your example above. So, you should enter the base science rate that is shown on the screen next to the science slider into the formula (9 in LCs example).
 
My count is this:
1. We exploded 40 nukes total.

2. We suicided 14 warriors against each AI's modern armours. We nuked each AI once (-2 negmods). What does that make the cost of DoP?

3. We have 97 WW points with each AI, for a total WW of 582.
==>ActiveWW*Population/500=582/500=1.164, so we have 1:mad: until we lose 83 WW points, right? SInce we'll lose at least 6 pts/turn, we lose that :mad: in 14t, right?

2. It'll take me a little bit of time to work all of this out. I'll take a look at war success, and then plug that into the formulas the code gives me, and then take a wild shot in the dark.

3. No. There'll be a fractional :mad: from leaving the city undefended, and all the fractional :mad: are added up before rounding. I'll see if there is an extra decay of 1WW/turn though - that would speed things up.
 
Knowing how many AIs have researched Masonry or other techs

Okay, I think I have this wired now. Of course, this only works for techs we haven't researched yet but can at this time. I'm attaching an excel chart for no prerequisite bonus and for 1 prerequisite bonus (*1.2). I think it's self-explanatory. I tested it and it works. For example settling on the coast on T22, we're at pop2. This means we can now run 9, 10, 11, 12, or 13 base research (at 100% slider). Using the chart I decide to verify the following base research values (see code below). I select the tech, set the base research in our capital, then hit F9. I subtract 8 (4:culture:+4:espionage:) from the GNP value, which gives me the total beakers applied that turn for that tech, if I were to hit <enter> (BUT DON'T HIT ENTER!!!).
Code:
               Beakers produced this turn
               ------------------------------------
turn  BaseRes  Agri  Myst  TW  Mason  Sail  AH   BW
----  -------  ----  ----  --  -----  ----  --   --
T22      9      11         11    
        11            12                         14
        13      15    15   16    16    16   18   17
------------    --    --   --    --    --   --   --
#AIsKnowTech     3     2    4     0     0    3    1
Works like a charm!

1. We should be able to monitor when and which AIs get Masonry!
2. THe chart also shows us where there are jump points because of the #AISKnowTech, giving us an extra beaker or more.
 

Attachments

  • AI known techs research bonus SG12.rar
    18.1 KB · Views: 179
After taking a cursory look at the scores, here is the situation:

(actual game - test game)

Stalin 74 - 74
China 74 - 80
English 74 - 80
American 68 - 80
French 68 - 80
Indian 56 - 80
OSS 47 - 47

The only things that affect score on T0 are pops (1 for everyone), Wonders (everyone has a palace) and techs. Everyone's score for land will be 0 until T10 IIRC.

If I take Ecology away from Ghandi and give him Alphabet, his score drops to 56 to match the real save. The French and Americans likely don't know Ecology either since their scores are too low. China and England either know Ecology and not some other basic starting tech or they don't know Ecology but instead know a tech from the era before Ecology.

In a nutshell, I think this indicates that many of the AI don't know Ecology because the don't need it... i.e. the don't have any fallout.

I'll try to look deeper at the scores and demographics later today.
The life expectancy (healthiness) varies from 57 to 77 with an average 68. Unhealthiness comes from either fallout or floodplains, right? Life expectancy is

100*health/health+unhealth

Assuming all AIs settled on fresh water (guaranteed unless Erkon took it away from them), they have a minimum of +4 health. So if they have only 1 unhealth from 1 pop, then it's 400/5=80. Impossible. So assuming the AIs settled on fresh water, they MUST have at least 1 unhealth. So I think we can safely assume that all AIs have either 1) at least two fallout tiles or 2) at least 3 fp tiles.

Now, I suppose it's possible that none of them have the fp tiles in their inner 9 tiles (since no AI is working a fp tile right now: MaxBushels = 4), but we're pretty likely to know on T5 when the the borders expand.
 
Knowing how many AIs have researched Masonry or other techs

Very clever!! :goodjob:

I was trying to back into the # of civs that know a technology by using the formula, which wasn't possible with all of the rounddown functions.

You've created a table that shows the expected beakers applied at different base bpt values depending on how many AI know a tech. We can adjust the base beakers and compare them to this table. Assuming we have a large enough range of base beakers (like you did when at 2 pops), we can find the break points and figure out how many AI have a tech.

Presumably, this won't work for base techs (i.e. no prerequ bonus) that only 1 or 2 AI know until we can generate more than 24 beakers if one AI knows a tech and 12 beakers if 2 AI know a tech.

This will put a lot more emphasis on the up player to watch for score changes and then to determine which techs each AI learned that turn. But it will be worth the effort, me thinks.
 
Good work, LC!

I was playing around in Excel, too. It actually seems to me that a 9 - 11 base bpt range gives perfect knowledge. Is that right? We can have that a.s.a. we research Fishing, via a coastal tile.

Spoiler :

09 12 12 13 13 14 14 15
10 13 13 14 14 15 15 16
11 14 15 15 16 16 17 18


I gave some numbers for health. The 57 is difficult to get, without significant unhealth, unless I'm wrong in some way.
 
The life expectancy (healthiness) varies from 57 to 77 with an average 68. Unhealthiness comes from either fallout or floodplains, right? Life expectancy is

100*health/health+unhealth

Assuming all AIs settled on fresh water (guaranteed unless Erkon took it away from them), they have a minimum of +4 health. So if they have only 1 unhealth from 1 pop, then it's 400/5=80. Impossible. So assuming the AIs settled on fresh water, they MUST have at least 1 unhealth. So I think we can safely assume that all AIs have either 1) at least two fallout tiles or 2) at least 3 fp tiles.

Now, I suppose it's possible that none of them have the fp tiles in their inner 9 tiles (since no AI is working a fp tile right now: MaxBushels = 4), but we're pretty likely to know on T5 when the the borders expand.

Interesting. Life Expectancy is one demographic that I never really monitored in my PBEM games.

Based on the scores, it's only possible for Stalin to know Ecology unless the Chinese and English know it and also had one of their basic starting techs removed (which I doubt Erkon did).

So, it's possible that Erkon put some fallout in the other AI capitals, but on tiles that won't severely penalize them (i.e. not on resources like he did to us). That means that we'll either have to clean it up for them or wait until they know Ecology and hope that they clean it up themselves.
 
I was playing around in Excel, too. It actually seems to me that a 9 - 11 base bpt range gives perfect knowledge. Is that right? We can have that a.s.a. we research Fishing, via a coastal tile.

Spoiler :

09 12 12 13 13 14 14 15
10 13 13 14 14 15 15 16
11 14 15 15 16 16 17 18

That seems right for techs requiring 1 prerequisite and no optional prerequisites known. However, your numbers don't match what I see in Excel. I see:

Spoiler :
09 12 12 12 13 13 14 14
10 13 13 14 14 15 15 15
11 14 14 15 15 16 16 17

Am I missing something?
 
Here's another riddle, guys:
F9 shows max AI production at 3h and minimum food at 2f. Since city centers give at least 2f1h, what tile is the 2f AI working?!?!? It has no food and max 2h, right? Furthermore, we know he has at least one water tile. Would an AI prefer a 2h1c plains hill to a 1f1c coastal tile?
 
Good work, LC!

I was playing around in Excel, too. It actually seems to me that a 9 - 11 base bpt range gives perfect knowledge. Is that right? We can have that a.s.a. we research Fishing, via a coastal tile.

Spoiler :

09 12 12 13 13 14 14 15
10 13 13 14 14 15 15 16
11 14 15 15 16 16 17 18


I gave some numbers for health. The 57 is difficult to get, without significant unhealth, unless I'm wrong in some way.
Mitchum has the 9-11 numbers right, if I got the excel sheet right. Unfortunately, for no prereq techs it's not too good until 12 base beakers and excellent at 24 base beakers.
 
I mentioned this earlier. It should be a total of 6 f+h per player, but it doesn't seem like any of them have that. The possible range for total food+production across all 6 is 26-34, which averages to 4.333 - 5.667 per AI. I was thinking they must have crap for land tiles in the initial radius (fallout, desert, jungle, etc.)

The numbers from your spreadsheet are correct. I made a slight mistake with the formula. We do need a 9-12 range.
 
Here's another riddle, guys:
F9 shows max AI production at 3h and minimum food at 2f. Since city centers give at least 2f1h, what tile is the 2f AI working?!?!? It has no food and max 2h, right? Furthermore, we know he has at least one water tile. Would an AI prefer a 2h1c plains hill to a 1f1c coastal tile?

They definitely do if they don't have fishing.
It would be a 1f2c coastal tile, and we know none of the AIs has that much commerce, don't we?
 
They definitely do if they don't have fishing.
It would be a 1f2c coastal tile, and we know none of the AIs has that much commerce, don't we?
THeir GNPs go from 16 to 18, so at least one AI is working a 2c tile and at most two. I've studied the food/hammer/commerce situation and I don't think there's much we can get from it. It looks like 3-4 AIs are doing the usual thing, working 2f1h tiles. One guy's totally screwed and is working a 1 or 2h tile. One or two guys are working a coast or lake.

BIg deal.
 
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