SGOTM 12 - One Short Straw

[babybluepants]

Well, I think it would be super-lame to fail on Pyramids, totally awesome if we got it. Not sure.

 

[LowtherCastle]

1. I think the HS gets much closer to 50% as we 1) move into pre-roaded conquered land and 2) focus more on scrubbing (6t-4t) and wkshopping (6t-4t).
2. 3 GSes @ 200+300+400gpps=900/(12b/14gpps)gpps ~ 771 beakers gained by Representation.
3. If we build NE, then we have roughly (200)/(12b/14gpps) +(300/2 + 400/2)/(12b/15gpps) ~ 171 + 280 ~ 451 beakers gained by Rep.
4. Pyramids currently cost 250h in Moscow plus opportunity costs. Stone would save us 83h.

The question is, how soon will we be able to capture the Pyramids?

 

[Mitchum]

No freakin' way. We have significant food surplus in all the current cities (save for Moscow - in which farms > cottages, IMHO), and we'll have TGL, while pretty much crashing our slider economy via REX / war very soon. And, there's no AI cash to trade for.

You've talked yourself into liking Theo and HS. None of us have built it before, and bcool showed it's barely even hammer-efficient compared to workers. The decision was made purely for GE points, IIRC.

I agree 100% that the 'Mids are a great wonder. Based on LC's last test save, it looks like we're comparing HS + Market + RAX vs. 'Mids. I'm not sure if the spy was built in both saves, but I assume it was.

Both options give us GE points, so that's a wash.

My biggest concern is how late we're going for the 'Mids, which is a major reason why I haven't really been thinking about them (that and we don't have stone). We do win the race in the LC's test game, but they typically go right around 1 AD on Emperor IIRC. This isn't a typical game, so maybe they will go later.

I can go either way, but I think HS is the less risky option.

One benefit of going Pryamids is that we can save our epp for Philosophy...

 

[Mitchum]

2. 3 GSes @ 200+300+400gpps=900/(12b/14gpps)gpps ~ 771 beakers gained by Representation.

Non-Representation scientists provide beakers too, so I think this isn't quite right... Would the beakers gained just be halved? We also need to add in the 25% from the library.

The question is, how soon will we be able to capture the Pyramids?

Good question. How much warring do we plan to do? Just take out the French? Do we go after the GLH too? If someone gets the 'Mids, do we go for them?

While we have the early advantage with maces vs. archers, I think we need to push as far as we can until longbows come on line... I'm just not sure how much is too much.

 

[bcool]

1. I think the HS gets much closer to 50% as we 1) move into pre-roaded conquered land and 2) focus more on scrubbing (6t-4t) and wkshopping (6t-4t).
2. 3 GSes @ 200+300+400gpps=900/(12b/14gpps)gpps ~ 771 beakers gained by Representation.
3. If we build NE, then we have roughly (200)/(12b/14gpps) +(300/2 + 400/2)/(12b/15gpps) ~ 171 + 280 ~ 451 beakers gained by Rep.
4. Pyramids currently cost 250h in Moscow plus opportunity costs.

The question is, how soon will we be able to capture the Pyramids?

I'm sorry but what? I understand your argument in #1, but I'm not totally sure how you are calculating the benefits of the pyramids


Representation gives us +3 from specialists so you are saying we only get as much as we produce ? We get this benefit until we would plan to research constitution. We would probably run a few more specialists even in cities that would not produce a great person. No?

edit: xpost

 

[LowtherCastle]

Non-Representation scientists provide beakers too, so I think this isn't quite right... Would the beakers gained just be halved? We also need to add in the 25% from the library.



Good question. How much warring to we plan to do? Just take out the French? Do we go after the GLH too? If someone gets the 'Mids, do we go for them?

While we have the early advantage with maces vs. archers, I think we need to push as far as we can until longbows come on line... I'm just not sure how much is too much.

My calcs are tailored to the Rep beakers. The original sci and library beakers are irrelevant. In other words, what I did was a calculation of how many sci we're likely to work up to Communism. I figured at that point we are hell-bent on world conquest and get the Pyramids around that time.

We want to conquer the entire world minus iceballs eventually. We want to get Communism asap to be able to handle the maintenance. Conquest gold will have to cover a lot of our maintenance, along with building commerce in some cities, and courthouses.

Who knows how this will all play out?

 

[LowtherCastle]

Representation gives us +3 from specialists so you are saying we only get as much as we produce ? We get this benefit until we would plan to research constitution. We would probably run a few more specialists even in cities that would not produce a great person. No?

Rep gives us an extra for each specialist . The fractions eliminate the Wonder .

Good point on Constitution. I think we'd capture it before that, though.

 

[Mitchum]

I just looked at LC's latest save. It gives us the 'Mids in 225 AD and HS 5 or 6 turns later. This is actually a double whammy and provides twice the GE points!! I think this may be the way to go. It also puts less emphasis on the GSpy being successful this time. If stealing Theology should fail again, our consolation is the 'Mids, which doesn't sound like a bad thing!

Now if we can just beat the AI to the 'Mids...

 

[Mitchum]

If we do go for the 'Mids, what is the impact if we hold off on revolting to OR until after the 'Mids are completed and revolt to Representation at the same time? Does it significantly delay TGLib, Colossus and/or 'Mids?

 

[bcool]

I think it is likely either Gandhi or Rosey will be building the pyramids if we don't and I doubt we will be able to capture it anytime soon if that is the case. I guess Mao or Churchill could conceivably build it. Is there a code somewhere that determines how likely an AI is to build wonders?

A conservative guess of the benefit of the pyramids would be ~60 turns of benefits after it is built (either because we research constitution or we capture it)

We would likely run at least an average 8 specialists for the majority of that time (2 scientists from GLib and 6 other scientists and/or engineers spread out) That is 8 * 3 = 24
24 * 60 turns = 1440 raw (multiplied by whatever buildings we have)

I don't think we will only run specialists just to produce although maybe with the Colossus it does make sense to run fewer specialists. I think we will hit happiness limits before we capture the pyramids or research constitution.

Cost is a barracks, market, and either 3-4 workers or the HS in Moscow. (Some possibility of building the HS after the pyramids)

I think there is a decent chance we will get some decent gold trades from failed wonder builds by the AI. So the Market in Moscow isn't as urgent I think. And we can get a few decent gold trades in the mean time. I don't think we will have too many 0% research turns if we are just a little bit lucky with the gold trades.

 

[babybluepants]

The benefit of pre-Constitution Rep is difficult to really quantify. I think we'll hit quite some financial trouble before Communism, assuming we wanna keep grabbing all the land, take out DG and possibly even go after Mao in that period. In a situation where we have to stay close to or at 0% for periods, Rep effectively adds 50% to our research rate (reducing proportionally as the slider goes up). I've done a sustainable 150-180 bpt with Rep on Imm at this stage of the game @ 0% slider before. That's the real benefit, IMHO - assuming you have the requisite food to run some specs, it lets you over-expand without sinking your tech.

Like I said, I'm mainly worried about losing a race to Pyramids. Without stone, we don't even get a good fail-cash return, and we've delayed other important builds quite a bit. It's obviously a big gamble, and I'd only be for it if all four of us were agreed.

Edit: Really, I've had it in mind all along, but didn't bring it up because it's risky and I didn't wanna take risks at the cost of settlers and workers. It came up now purely because of the sudden delay in Hagia, and the fact that market/rax seems less than entirely essential at this stage.

 

[bcool]

Would we have enough to steal philosophy at about the same time as the pyramids is built? That would enable us to switch to pacifism and representation at about the same time...

edit: I'm fine with an attempt at the pyramids. I think it will leave us a bit worker short in the near term, so maybe we produce another worker or 2 in siberia instead of settlers?

 

[bcool]

Which wonder would get us to Communism the fastest?
Pyramids?
Hagia Sophia?
Parthenon?

Perhaps this is the best way to look at it?

 

[LowtherCastle]

Okay, you guys talked me into it. I think the thing to do is to plan all four chops into the Pyramids, last turn. That way we don't have as much into it, if we lose it. The chops aren't worth the failed gold, because we're not geting the stone +100%. I can figure that out, or someone else if you get around to it.

I thkn the Hagia is also very good, especially from the point of view of fastest finish. WHether it pays off or not, in terms of worker turns, it surely gets stuff done faster, except for roads, but like I said, the AIs are building those for us. Let's just not pillage them any more.

On the other hand, a quick pacifism is an interesting idea as well. BUt are we really ready for it, or can it wait? DOn't forget we have cheap libraries and we need forges and chs, so slavery is still useful plus, all three buildings provide specialists without castes. The costs were this:

Theo 269
Philo 430
----------
Total 699
ours 452
----------
need 247

That may change through time, but not by much, especially if we start putting some more into it. Let's just hope we don't miss out on any wonders of our preference.

 

[babybluepants]

Great idea on the synchronized chops.

Are we still thinking of revolting to OR or not, btw?

On the other hand, a quick pacifism is an interesting idea as well. BUt are we really ready for it, or can it wait?

I think Slav-OR is better until after the second layer of infra (forge, barracks, uni, ch) is done in our current cities. If we were SPI, it would be different, ofc...

Regardless of Pac, though, stealing Philosophy would be very nice. We may not get a Philo trade available until we need it for Lib, so it's either self-tech or steal, I think.

 

[Mitchum]

I agree with going for the 'Mids now with all chops coming on the last turn. This can be tricky without fast workers since you'll want each worker to arrive on his forest at the exact right time such that the chop completes on the final turn. I guess if a worker gets there a turn or two early, he can pre-build an improvement (i.e. farm, cottage, etc.).

We should have had a spy in place in Galley City for five turns at the time we complete them. At that point, we can decide whether to steal Theology and make a run at HS or not.

 

[babybluepants]

Consensus it is, then? Well, this is a very exciting development! Play whenever you feel ready, LC. Looking forward to the results...

 

[bcool]

Under organized religion 2 whips per city maybe 6 total pop left equals roughly 42 hammers or ~21 food per city.

Getting Pacifism ~15 turns earlier gives us maybe 8 specialists (24 ) and 4 wonders (8 )

15 * 32 or 460 extra

Isn't it about getting Communism as fast as possible

Is 460 extra worth 8 * 42 = 336

I suspect the civics cost of OR and pacifism is close ( maybe Pacifism would be a little more with the unit costs)

I would think the from pacifism are worth more than the extra hammers from OR.

Maybe I'm oversimplifying since OR would give us the buildings a bit sooner the benefits of those buildings a bit earlier. But is very valuable isn't it?

edit: am I overestimating the # of specialists? Have we looked at how we are getting the 3 or 4 GS lately?

------
Random thought
Have we considered making the GP Farm the location for Oxford?

 

[babybluepants]

I think you are oversimplifying. It's nice to get to Communism early, but it's also important to set up our cities to get the most advantage out of them in the mid-to-long term. We'll have to have some major military effort in the Renaissance era. The more efficient we are in getting them all the infrastructure and growing into a decent size, the more efficient we'll be at further expansion and later transitioning out of that into a full research mode.

I'm really unsure about timing in this game myself. It's simply off from a typical game in how research and expansion/growth relate. I'll try to think through it more carefully.

If we're going for Pyramids, let's wait and see what happens before really working through a gpp plan. There are a few unknown variables now.

Random thought
Have we considered making the GP Farm the location for Oxford?

Why?

 

[bcool]

GP Farm has quite a few grassland tiles for cottages, and it will be up and running sooner than any captured city and it will has a nice decent food surplus for a few scientists and after Paris go down it will have a decent amount of hammers.

Leaves Moscow to be the Iron Works City (and perhaps the Wall Street City or Heroic Epic). Moscow can focus on growth (farms instead of cottages) and it can focus on hammer production without sacrificing some research production.