SGOTM 12 - One Short Straw

@mdy:
1. Churchill can only threaten us by galley because he doesn't and won't have OBs with Mao or dG.
2. Let's put the wandering Confu Miss to the upper NE land tile by Mao and hope he gets teleported to us when someone settles that spot.
3. Keep checking if Roosy will trade Construction. Every beaker saved counts.
4. bbp asked about how much we sell Aesth and Lit for. Imo, 50 or 60g is the minimum. Hopefully a bit more.
5. I would trade Gandhi MC for Drama if he offers it. Then we could trade Drama around.
 
Just musing:
If we're planning to invade China shortly, could we get unit production elsewhere? Siberia doesn't seem to have anything to build in the short term. We could maybe get a barracks up, and then line up some treb whips after Eng is in. I'd say the same about GP Farm, but I haven't really checked into its development too closely. After the Moscow (hopefully) GE, Pigs will blast through the next GS well ahead of GP Farm, so I'm ok with whipping it a bit harder and delaying gpp for now. Bananas should just get granary-barracks. I would personally even borrow the second banana, to help set this city up. GP has too much food pre-Caste, esp. after we get the pigs in borders.

Our spy will tell us what to expect. No point in going in prematurely.
Ok. Our projected numbers are similar. I never think to do things like your galley move. :blush: :goodjob: The 7 maces you're projecting is a bit low, I think, but the spy will tell us about that ahead of time.

Edit: Yeah, 50-60g should be minimum. I'd hope for 80-100g.
 
Not sure what you mean by major overhaul, but imo, it's enough if you just take the test save linked by bcool above and add tiles and AI cities. The cities you can easily give the right population and estimate the culture, maybe stick in the approriate buildings and units.

To me, the purpose of the test save is to give us a template for
  • testing our own city builds
  • planning our worker actions
  • planning our movements
  • coordinating all of the above
It's absolutely not about figuring out what the AIs might do in the future or how hard a battle will be or what they might research. That's impossible and misleading at best.

Yes, that's my plan. Focus on getting the map, city locations, city sizes and cultural defensive bonuses correct. Our home land should be accurate enough for worker actions and city builds, so I don't plan on touching that.
 
BTW, mdy should have an idea before he starts playing of which AI demands to accept, which to refuse, and which to pause the game and ask for advice. Do we have a set of diplo guidelines to follow in the mountain of posts somewhere?
 
Well, London is an interesting story. It has Moai Statues and an aqueduct. We traded him CoL on T125 and he already has his courthouse. Can can produce 23hpt, so he would need 9t max to build the Hanging Gardens. He's already got 77h into some build, so that means HG in 6t or less, if he's building that.

Regarding the Hanging Gardens, it will take an AI 300*.85 = 255:hammers: to build wonders per my testing. It seems like you're still using the standard 0.7 multiplier, which only applies to units and basic infrastructure. It's not a major deal, but it will actually take him (255 - 77) / 23 = 7.74 turns to complete the HG if he is building it now.
 
Thanks, Mitchum. I remembered that later but didn't know what the right factor was. :goodjob:

bbp linked me to a Shyuhe thread from this summer with this tantalizing tidbit. Sounds like folks tale to me, but if not, 'twould be nice to determine if someone's researching Construction. Anyone heard, read, or konw something or someone about this?
There was an old deity player's trick for determining what tech an AI was researching. IIRC it had to do with checking how long it takes to research THAT on full and 0 slider and seeing how that changed things in the demo screen?

Someone refresh me on this.
We were doing this to determine if techs had been completed, but not in progress...
 
Kinda vague... I don't see how you could get information beyond what we were getting early on.

Edit: Assuming ZPV's formula and the War Academy article are correct, there really shouldn't be any effect on our research rate until a known AI actually discovers the tech.
 
@mdy
We've decided to focus on Oxford asap, capturing Paris+, continuing our city development. Overall, I think your PPP serves this very well. For Mao, I think we'll need the 10XP unit on about T+20. So we'd need the GG for Moscow +2XP about T+22. That seems doable, within the structure of your PPP, so I'm also fine with your current war plan.

My only remaining thought is a Confu Missionary for GP Farm. It's just beginning to build its buildings and the Confu Miss will cost 40h, but save ~20h on forge, and then ~33h on the university. Already paying off. I'm just wondering if you can squeeze it out of Pigs or Fish immediately, without jeopardizing the timing of the rest of your plan?
 
I spent a little time thinking about our espionage plan today. Here is a list of techs that we could steal (obviously there will be more as the AI research techs off our Communism beeline):

Code:
Philosophy         Gandhi      1248 beakers   113%
Communism          Mao         4368 beakers   137%
Nationalism        De Gaulle   2808 beakers   120%
Constitution       Roosevelt   3120 beakers   122%
Military Science   Stalin      3120 beakers   115%
Steam Power        Churchill   4992 beakers   111%
The other factors in the equation include:

  • Base Cost: +50% of base beakers
  • Stationary spy: -50%
  • State Religion: -40% (doesn’t apply to Mao (-25% if running our state religion in one test game and 0% in another test game I ran???) or Stalin (-15% if running no state religion) in our game unless we get them to convert to a religion other than Confucianism)
  • Trade Route: -20% (for Gandhi and Roosevelt only)
  • Culture: -7% for Galley City in test game (should be higher for 2S+SE of Moscow, which was –50% in LC’s test game)
  • Distance: +6% for Galley City, +4% for 2S+SE of Moscow
  • EPP differential: as shown in table above (LC’s example had 79% for Roosevelt, which likely aren’t achievable in our game since we are currently at 122% for him)
So, if I understand it correctly, the plan is to “gift” the city 2S+SE of Moscow to the appropriate AI (except for Gandhi) after having a spy stationary for 5 turns, steal the tech and then capture the city back that same turn. Rinse and repeat. That would give us the following espionage points for each tech with the formula being:

Beakers * 1.5 * stationary spy * state religion * trade route * culture * distance * epp differential
Philosophy (Gandhi): 1248*1.50*0.5*0.6*0.8*0.93*1.06*1.13 = 500 :espionage:

Communism (Mao): 4368*1.50*0.5*0.75?*1.0*0.50*1.04*1.37 = 1,750 :espionage:
if we get Mao to convert to another religion and our epp differential goes down (which it should), we get:

Communism (Mao): 4368*1.50*0.5*0.6*1.0*0.50*1.04*1.05 = 1,073 :espionage:

Nationalism (De Gaulle): 2808*1.50*0.5*0.6*1.0*0.50*1.04*1.20 = 788 :espionage: (should be less as differential gets better)

Constitution (Roosevelt): 3120*1.50*0.5*0.6*0.8*0.50*1.04*1.22 = 712 :espionage: (should be less as differential gets better)

Military Science (Stalin): 3120*1.50*0.5*0.85*1.0*0.50*1.04*1.15 = 1,189 :espionage: (should be less as differential gets better)

Steam Power (Churchill): 4992*1.50*0.5*0.6*1.0*0.50*1.04*1.11 = 1,296 :espionage: (should be less as differential gets better)​
There may be some mistakes here, but I think it’s pretty close.

So, I assume our tech path will be something like:

Construction -> Education -> Philosophy (stolen from Gandhi) -> Engineering -> Feudalism -> Guilds -> Gunpowder -> Chemistry (opens up stealing Military Science from Stalin) -> Printing Press -> Scientific Method -> Liberalism (take Biology) -> Communism (stolen from Mao).​
Alternatively, we could Liberalize Scientific Method if things are tight and self-research Biology.

So, should we build up about 500 epp on Gandhi and then switch our epp toward Mao? If we stop assigning points to Gandhi, hopefully he’ll stop assigning points toward us, keeping the 500 epp cost for Philosophy? As long as we wait until the last possible moment to steal Philosophy, we’ll still have 500ish epp on Gandhi and we’ll still be able to see his research progress toward Liberalism?

I just found out through testing that if a spy is not successful stealing a tech, we don’t end up spending any espionage points. I thought that we would lose the points whether successful or not. This explains why we were able to have enough epp to steal Theology again so quickly in our game… :)
 
The tag is :D

Nice work, Mitchum. You've listed 5,558 EP total. Some of that (maybe Mil Sci) isn't required super-fast, IMO. The rest we should ideally have before 1500 AD at the latest but perhaps sooner (hard to really estimate at this point :dunno:), which is 75t away. So: 3,657 EP / 75t = approx. 60 ept. Perhaps more. One other thing I'm wondering is if we can use a Great Spy to infiltrate, should we get one. Is there 3,000 worth of tech to potentially steal from any one AI? Presumably stuff like Feud-Guilds-Banking, etc?

Edit:
Philosophy (Gandhi): 1248*1.50*0.5*0.6*0.8*0.93*1.06*1.13 = 500 :espionage:

Communism (Mao): 4368*1.50*0.5*0.75?*1.0*0.50*1.04*1.37 = 1,750 :espionage:
if we get Mao to convert to another religion and our epp differential goes down (which it should), we get:

Communism (Mao): 4368*1.50*0.5*0.6*1.0*0.50*1.04*1.05 = 1,073 :espionage:

Nationalism (De Gaulle): 2808*1.50*0.5*0.6*1.0*0.50*1.04*1.20 = 788 :espionage: (should be less as differential gets better)

Constitution (Roosevelt): 3120*1.50*0.5*0.6*0.8*0.50*1.04*1.22 = 712 :espionage: (should be less as differential gets better)

Military Science (Stalin): 3120*1.50*0.5*0.85*1.0*0.50*1.04*1.15 = 1,189 :espionage: (should be less as differential gets better)

Steam Power (Churchill): 4992*1.50*0.5*0.6*1.0*0.50*1.04*1.11 = 1,296 :espionage: (should be less as differential gets better)​
There may be some mistakes here, but I think it’s pretty close.

So, I assume our tech path will be something like:

Construction -> Education -> Philosophy (stolen from Gandhi) -> Engineering -> Feudalism -> Guilds -> Gunpowder -> Chemistry (opens up stealing Military Science from Stalin) -> Printing Press -> Scientific Method -> Liberalism (take Biology) -> Communism (stolen from Mao).​
Alternatively, we could Liberalize Scientific Method if things are tight and self-research Biology.
Continuing from Comm/Bio, we'd have something like (not too sure about exact order):
Steel 4,368b -> Economics 2,184b (requires Feud-Guilds-Banking) -> Replaceable Parts 2,808b (requires Feud-Guilds-Banking) -> Steam Power (:espionage:) -> Railroad 7,020b -> Constitution (:espionage:) -> Corporation 2,496b (requires Constitution) -> Medicine 7,020b
With Nationalism (:espionage:) in there somewhere for Taj.
Is that about correct?
 
@mdy
We've decided to focus on Oxford asap, capturing Paris+, continuing our city development. Overall, I think your PPP serves this very well. For Mao, I think we'll need the 10XP unit on about T+20. So we'd need the GG for Moscow +2XP about T+22. That seems doable, within the structure of your PPP, so I'm also fine with your current war plan.

My only remaining thought is a Confu Missionary for GP Farm. It's just beginning to build its buildings and the Confu Miss will cost 40h, but save ~20h on forge, and then ~33h on the university. Already paying off. I'm just wondering if you can squeeze it out of Pigs or Fish immediately, without jeopardizing the timing of the rest of your plan?

Are we giving up on getting a confu missionary to Bahamas? (the city that likely will limit building Oxford?)

And don't you want him to settle the city close to Mao instead of bananas site?
 
And don't you want him to settle the city close to Mao instead of bananas site?
On this topic:

I kept pushing for Bananas a while ago (i.e. 20+ turns - before we settled the island cities). Loosely, the idea back then was that (maybe borrowing the GP banana), that city might get quickly set up with Granary-Forge-Barracks and then work the two hills and ivory for 12hpt towards units, with maybe also some 6-4 whipping. Now that purpose is no longer really applicable, I think, due to the delay in setup and acceleration of our war plans. If we settle it, it will be just filler for some time.

mdy is right about corn/fish/deer being the best site, but it's not ready for settling. Neither is Silver, ofc. LC's site's only contribution in the short term would be border pressure ahead of an attack on Shanghai, I think. That would be nice, but it would also cost a lot and be very, very slow to pay back its cost.

Anyway, Bananas is already set up to go, so we may as well, but I'm not sure at all. I just wanna make that clear, since Bananas is kinda my baby. :D
 
I would imagine without looking at the cost details directly that the Mao attack site would only be at most 2 gold per turn more expensive than the banana site. Most of the expense at this point is in the increase in the number of our cities which increases maintenance on all of our cities.
 
Sure, you're probably right. :)

I was kinda also thinking of it in with total cost/payback in terms of speed of city's growth/contribution, need for military back-up, worker availability, etc.
 
Are we giving up on getting a confu missionary to Bahamas? (the city that likely will limit building Oxford?)

And don't you want him to settle the city close to Mao instead of bananas site?
mdy doesn't seem too enthusiastic about the Bahamas missionary.

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Right now, Bananas (T140) would cost us 8gpt total. Hammer City (T143) and Fish City (T140), 10gpt each.

Bananas would probably return an early profit faster because it can keep the ivory in use and has 9 coastal tiles it could work.

Fish City has only two uses, imo. 1) It can build a ch and work a spy, plus 4 sci. 2) 0.5 food under Sushi.

Hammer City would grow lot faster than you guys seem to think, and be ready to run a ton of sci after Biology. It also allows us to delay our SoD invasion toward Shanghai, until DoW+1, so that Shanghai is not threatened 1t before Beijing. Of course, we could achieve the same by delaying them anyway and capturing Shanghai on DoW+3 instead of DoW+2, but that allows for another unit to be poprushed or brought from the countryside somewhere.

Of course, there's also the risk that our settler will be there to settle on T143, one turn too late... :)

As for worker availability, only Fish City has that problem. There are plenty of workers down by Hammer City and dG is building more for us as we type... ;)

As for defense, what are we planning to do with all those units in Rheims, btw?
 
mdy doesn't seem too enthusiastic about the Bahamas missionary.

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Right now, Bananas (T140) would cost us 8gpt total. Hammer City (T143) and Fish City (T140), 10gpt each.

Bananas would probably return an early profit faster because it can keep the ivory in use and has 9 coastal tiles it could work.

Fish City has only two uses, imo. 1) It can build a ch and work a spy, plus 4 sci. 2) 0.5 food under Sushi.

Hammer City would grow lot faster than you guys seem to think, and be ready to run a ton of sci after Biology. It also allows us to delay our SoD invasion toward Shanghai, until DoW+1, so that Shanghai is not threatened 1t before Beijing. Of course, we could achieve the same by delaying them anyway and capturing Shanghai on DoW+3 instead of DoW+2, but that allows for another unit to be poprushed or brought from the countryside somewhere.

Of course, there's also the risk that our settler will be there to settle on T143, one turn too late... :)

As for worker availability, only Fish City has that problem. There are plenty of workers down by Hammer City and dG is building more for us as we type... ;)

As for defense, what are we planning to do with all those units in Rheims, btw?


What "Fish City" are you talking about? The Corn/Fish site?
 
Fish City has only two uses, imo. 1) It can build a ch and work a spy, plus 4 sci. 2) 0.5 food under Sushi.
If only every city could only run 6 specialists at pop 9. :drool: ;)

We obviously won't be settling that one for now, though. The advantage of settling a city like that soon, ofc, is that we can whip up the infra ahead of the Caste switch. It's already getting late for that.
 
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