SGOTM 12 - One Short Straw

[LowtherCastle]

Interesting. Yeah, he definitely got a Mil Acad. Have you summarized the demo data in some way? Could I have the spreadsheets or whatever, just so I'm not starting from scratch?

My demo data summary is here. I'll see if I can put my spreadsheet stuff into a presentable form. Meanwhile, I wouldn't bother with it if I were you. It's a lot of work...

I'm still assuming Stalin researched TW and built a warrior. I gave him a GG in a test and he instantly used it and it showed up on his power graph (didn't wait till T9). Hopefully, we'll be able to figure that out soon, when someone else researches TW or whatever.

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By the way, guys, I revisited the Ducks question of what they researched at the beginning. I don't know how we concluded it was AH-TW-agri-fishing, because that gives them 11K power if they have 130 score points (including the necessary pop2). So the only, but only, way I can get 130score/10Kpower is wkr-rax and any combination of AH+agri and myst+fish. Then their next turnset only adds 6K power, and now they've added another 7K power. Surely they added the wheel in their second turnset (or?) so that tells me that they don't have BW, probably not math. Their second turnset also probably included ...+phood and I think they stopped now at 1480bc after a CoL slingshot. In any case, their graphs don't look very good to me at all. Graphs can be misleading, but I think their start was a disaster. Maybe they saw that Stalin had grens and, being relative newcomers to SGOTMs, feared for their lives and hurried the rax, just in case.

No way Erkon set up a dangerous map, imo. He wouldn't want half the teams dying in his first SG scenario.

 

[babybluepants]

Meanwhile, I wouldn't bother with it if I were you. It's a lot of work...

Too late...

Churchill Seems to be very healthy with plenty of forest tiles. I have him starting at 7/2, going to 7/3 at pop2. That's likely to mean 2-3 fallout tiles (fp unlikely because he's working 2f tiles at pop1 and pop2), along with 6-7 forest tiles.[/SPOILER]

This doesn't match soldier data - it was Roosevelt that grew 1 pop on T7, when the 77 Life Ex. dropped. So, he'd have 70 after.

I was just studying the Life Expectancy numbers. We know:
Mao has 75 = 6/3
Roosevelt has 70 = 7/3
Gandhi 50 = 4/4

By process of elimination, we get the following ranges for the other 3 AI:
Data - Rival Best / Rival Average / Range of Rival Avg / Range of S+C+DG knowing other 3 / Rival Worst
T00: 77 68 408-413 199-204 57
T06: 77 67 402-407 200-205 50 (Gandhi @ 4/4)
T07: 75 66 396-401 201-206 50 (Roosevelt @ 7/3)
So, Stalin+Church+DG are at 201-204 total
T08: 75 62 372-377 177-182 50 (Stalin and Churchill grow)
T09: 75 60 360-365 165-170 50 (DG grows)
T11: 75 60 360-365 165-170 50

The only thing I can get working with this data is:
Stalin 4/2 to start; 4/3 after growing
Churchill 3/2 to start; 3/3 after growing
De Gaulle 3/1 to start; 3/2 after growing

This isn't necessarily accurate, since I arrived at it through trial and error. I did try a pile of possibilities, though. I've attached an Excel file with my trial-and-error template.

Edit: after doing this for 20-30 minutes, I just realized that any one of them hooking up a seafood or something throws it off. I'll take LC's advice and give this stuff up...

 

[LowtherCastle]

Do we know for sure that Stalin knows Military Science? Isn't it possible that he just started with a stack of Grenadiers in his capital?

Okay, I just tested that and he threatens us with his mighty archers, despite his load of tacticals and grens.

 

[babybluepants]

By the way, guys, I revisited the Ducks question of what they researched at the beginning. I don't know how we concluded it was AH-TW-agri-fishing, because that gives them 11K power if they have 130 score points (including the necessary pop2).

Pop 2 is not necessary. With Agri-AH, they wouldn't be able to improve the horse, meaning they're still building the second worker until T29, I think. The save in question is T32 - so no way they'd grow in this scenario.

Graphs can be misleading, but I think their start was a disaster. Maybe they saw that Stalin had grens and, being relative newcomers to SGOTMs, feared for their lives and hurried the rax, just in case.

I would hardly call Duckweed, kossin and dingding newbs. They did really rush through it, considering how unconventional the start is, but I doubt those guys ever have a disaster of an opening.

 

[Mitchum]

Okay, all AIs do have archery, because in the real save, when we greet them they all threaten us with their archers. So those +2K power jumps are really weird. Hard to believe they're not building archers and scouts don't give them any power points.

We really don't know what techs Stalin started with. We assumed that it was a Modern tech, but it could be a handful of techs from different eras, right? If you're with me so far, maybe his capital was settled on Copper (or Iron) and he knows BW (or IW) and built a spearman (4K soldiers). Or, he built an Axe (6K) and learned a tech with no soldiers. Although, I have trouble believing that the AI would build any unit other than an archer to act as military police in their capital...

In any event, since Erkon has given the AI advanced techs and messed around with their starting locations, it could be anything and we won't really know until we actually see it...

 

[LowtherCastle]

Good catch on Roosy, bbp! We should work on this together. Maybe together we can figure some stuff out. Btw, where's your spreadsheet?

 

[babybluepants]

I guess I can't just attach an .xls file. Here it is zipped...

 

[LowtherCastle]

Pop 2 is not necessary. With Agri-AH, they wouldn't be able to improve the horse, meaning they're still building the second worker until T29, I think. The save in question is T32 - so no way they'd grow in this scenario.


I would hardly call Duckweed, kossin and dingding newbs. They did really rush through it, considering how unconventional the start is, but I doubt those guys ever have a disaster of an opening.

Pop2 is necessary to get to 130 score points. How else do you get from 124 to 130? That means 1K. Add 2K for AH and you've 3K unaccounted. So TW is too much. Can't be an archer. Can only be rax.

I'm not calling them newbs. I'm saying that last SG was their first, as least that's what they said. Gyathaar always designed his CIV SGs to make sure no teams died early. Erkon knows that, they may not. FOr example, in SG6, Always War, the three AIs on our continent started with scouts instead of warriors. And so on.

 

[Mitchum]

OK, am I clear to advance the game until Worker 2 is complete (T27)? We should have more demo data by then to help us plan further.

If so, are we going Wheel -> Writing or Writing -> Wheel?

 

[babybluepants]

If so, are we going Wheel -> Writing or Writing -> Wheel?

Does it even matter? I don't think we're roading or building a Lib before we get both. 'd go Wtg just to screw with our own score graph.

Pop2 is necessary to get to 130 score points. How else do you get from 124 to 130? That means 1K. Add 2K for AH and you've 3K unaccounted. So TW is too much. Can't be an archer. Can only be rax.

I'm not calling them newbs. I'm saying that last SG was their first, as least that's what they said. Gyathaar always designed his CIV SGs to make sure no teams died early. Erkon knows that, they may not. FOr example, in SG6, Always War, the three AIs on our continent started with scouts instead of warriors. And so on.

4 techs don't get them to 130? That's what I was figuring back then, now I'm too lazy to calculate any more... IDK then.

First SGOTM, yes, but definitely not first SG - they, and esp. Duck, have played some sick ones. Both Duck and kossin are brilliant at dealing with early wars at standard Deity even. Seriously doubt they rushed into an unnecessary barracks here on Emp, with gimped AI starts. Besides, 1480 BC Oracle would actually be quite good. Knowing them, I really don't think they'd wait that long to settle the second city, btw.

 

[Mitchum]

T15 - Worker 1 -> Worker 2. Move Worker 1 toward Horses.
T16 - Start pasture on Horses (4)
T19 - Horse pasture completed. Move citizen to Horses.
T20 - Worker 1 to Cow E+NE
T21 - Worker 1 scrub fallout (6)
T27 - Writing -> The Wheel. Worker 2 -> Warrior 1.

Things to do on each turn:

1. Screen shot of the scoreboard.
2. Screen shot of the Demographics screen.
3. Screen shot of the top 5 cities.
4. Screenshot of the F4 screen to monitor when the AI meet each other.
5. Screenshot of the Espionage screen.
6. Use LCs Excel file to determine which tech an AI learned by watching changes in our GNP.

Pause the game if:

1. Meet an AI unit.
2. See an AI border in the fog.
3. DoP with Gandhi becomes an option.

If this looks good, I'll play in the next 2 hours.

 

[LowtherCastle]

Looks fine to me. Writing first keeps open options and gives us a chance of picking up a couple coins bonus on TW.

 

[babybluepants]

Sounds good, Mitchum, go for it.

 

[Mitchum]

Okay, I just tested that and he threatens us with his mighty archers, despite his load of tacticals and grens.

Did you just continue to talk to Stalin until the message finally came up?

In any event, if we give Stalin Military Science, that means that he also started with either two Ancient techs or one Classical tech in order to get his score to 74...

 

[Mitchum]

T5    +2 warrior (Churchill?)
T6    +1 pop (Gandhi)
T7    +1 pop (Roosy)
T8    +2 2x pop (Stalin+CHurchill)
T9    +9 pop (dG) + TW + warrior (Stalin) + warrior (?)
T10   +2 warrior (?) or Mining (deGaulle)
Total 17

I think Mao built the warrior on T5. He's the only AI still at 1 pop. So he likely finished his warrior quickly and started on a worker next, stalling growth.

DeGaulle starts with Mining, so he could have learned AH (not likely since it is too soon) or someone built a warrior and DeGaulle learned a non-soldier tech (e.g. Fishing, Mysticism, etc.)

 

[LowtherCastle]

Did you just continue to talk to Stalin until the message finally came up?

In any event, if we give Stalin Military Science, that means that he also started with either two Ancient techs or one Classical tech in order to get his score to 74...

Yes. I open the dialogue, close it, open it, close it, open it, close it, until he gives the threatening unit. Standard practice. Learned it from klarius.

Well, we're forced to speculate about a lot of things, but I don't think this is one of them. Stalin has MilSci. (Not to be argumentative, just how the game is coded...)

 

[Mitchum]

Yes. I open the dialogue, close it, open it, close it, open it, close it, until he gives the threatening unit. Standard practice. Learned it from klarius.

Well, we're forced to speculate about a lot of things, but I don't think this is one of them. Stalin has MilSci. (Not to be argumentative, just how the game is coded...)

Agreed. If you read my comment, I was saying that giving him Military Science means that his score is 12 too low. This means that he also knows two Ancient techs or one Classical tech. We can speculate on which techs in addition to Military Science he knows, right?

 

[LowtherCastle]

I think Mao built the warrior on T5. He's the only AI still at 1 pop. So he likely finished his warrior quickly and started on a worker next, stalling growth.

DeGaulle starts with Mining, so he could have learned AH (not likely since it is too soon) or someone built a warrior and DeGaulle learned a non-soldier tech (e.g. Fishing, Mysticism, etc.)

According to my chart, as of T12, five (or six) AIs have Fishing. That means either three researched it now or perhaps some started with it added by Erkon. I'm assuming Erkon didn't add it (except maybe for Stalin, if you're right that he needs a couple more techs for his initial score).

 

[LowtherCastle]

I think Mao built the warrior on T5. He's the only AI still at 1 pop. So he likely finished his warrior quickly and started on a worker next, stalling growth.

DeGaulle starts with Mining, so he could have learned AH (not likely since it is too soon) or someone built a warrior and DeGaulle learned a non-soldier tech (e.g. Fishing, Mysticism, etc.)

According to my chart, as of T12, five (or six) AIs have Fishing. That means either three researched it now or perhaps some started with it added by Erkon. I'm assuming Erkon didn't add it (except maybe for Stalin, if you're right that he needs a couple more techs for his initial score).

 

[Mitchum]

Playing now. I'll post my results and save at the start of T27. I won't move any units on this turn.