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SGOTM 12 - One Short Straw
- Thread starter AlanH
- Start date
Do you guys expect we'll be able to take Beijing now?
One option might be to bribe Roos, take Nanjing, CF, then redeclare a couple of turns later. He might send some Beijing LBs west then? Not a very exciting option, I know. That's almost certainly too slow for State Prop by T179, but we look a touch slow anyway. What happens to Beijing cultural defence in that case?
One option might be to bribe Roos, take Nanjing, CF, then redeclare a couple of turns later. He might send some Beijing LBs west then? Not a very exciting option, I know. That's almost certainly too slow for State Prop by T179, but we look a touch slow anyway. What happens to Beijing cultural defence in that case?
bcool
Deity
It is a good question. I think taking Beijing with the current units next turn isn't good. 9 LB will stretch those units to the limits.
Bribe Rosey into war this turn, cease fire next turn to get those units a free teleport. Declare on Mao the same turn? next turn take Nanjing? and then do another push towards Beijing. (Maybe he moves units to help with Nanjing and we ambush them or back towards Rosey)
Bribe Rosey into war this turn, cease fire next turn to get those units a free teleport. Declare on Mao the same turn? next turn take Nanjing? and then do another push towards Beijing. (Maybe he moves units to help with Nanjing and we ambush them or back towards Rosey)
LowtherCastle
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Good night's sleep. Lots of good ideas from you guys. Assorted responses:
My turnset:
1. The fewer GPs we bulb, the better. We won't overflow SciMeth, that's easy to avoid. Plus, we'll have the slider on EPs against Mao for a few turns, coming up.
2. GP Farm just needs +1sci for 1t to pop the next GP a turn before Pigs. Pigs doesn't need to slow down. If GP Farm spawns a GS, then I may slow down Pigs to get the next one out of Moscow.
3. I'm thinking Taj Mahal in Bahamas (instead of settlers) for three reasons. It needs to grow, it's already finished its infra, and it has better hammer production than Bermuda when the GA ends.
4. I'm going to put some hammers into theatres, here and there.
5. We'll also have +
from dyes shortly.
6. Won't be doing anything radical wrt Beijing.
7. Beg 100g from Gandhi.
8. I've been working the best tiles in Rheims, simply because those farms don't get any GA bonuses and I figured Biology is right around the corner...
Later:
1. Our unit production is way too slow. Need a fast solution: The Globe Theatre. (bbp:
) We want it close to the action, but not too close (AI spy missions). Needs to have lots of food. Preferably in a space-parts city so we can use the whip to overflow into space parts. How about GP Farm?
2. Yes, we are a LT of Churchill (1+ cities on his capital's landmass, >7 land tiles bordering his land tiles, including diagonal, as I understand it). But I won't beg because that gives us DoP(10t) and I want that available in case he starts to threaten us before we're ready for him. We need to start thinking about when we will be ready for him, so we don't screw that up somehow.
3. Counter-espionage plus spies in Orleans + Rheims is useful, but first we steal Nationalism + COmmunism, of course.
.
My turnset:
1. The fewer GPs we bulb, the better. We won't overflow SciMeth, that's easy to avoid. Plus, we'll have the slider on EPs against Mao for a few turns, coming up.
2. GP Farm just needs +1sci for 1t to pop the next GP a turn before Pigs. Pigs doesn't need to slow down. If GP Farm spawns a GS, then I may slow down Pigs to get the next one out of Moscow.
3. I'm thinking Taj Mahal in Bahamas (instead of settlers) for three reasons. It needs to grow, it's already finished its infra, and it has better hammer production than Bermuda when the GA ends.
4. I'm going to put some hammers into theatres, here and there.
5. We'll also have +
from dyes shortly.6. Won't be doing anything radical wrt Beijing.
7. Beg 100g from Gandhi.
8. I've been working the best tiles in Rheims, simply because those farms don't get any GA bonuses and I figured Biology is right around the corner...
Later:
1. Our unit production is way too slow. Need a fast solution: The Globe Theatre. (bbp:
) We want it close to the action, but not too close (AI spy missions). Needs to have lots of food. Preferably in a space-parts city so we can use the whip to overflow into space parts. How about GP Farm?2. Yes, we are a LT of Churchill (1+ cities on his capital's landmass, >7 land tiles bordering his land tiles, including diagonal, as I understand it). But I won't beg because that gives us DoP(10t) and I want that available in case he starts to threaten us before we're ready for him. We need to start thinking about when we will be ready for him, so we don't screw that up somehow.
3. Counter-espionage plus spies in Orleans + Rheims is useful, but first we steal Nationalism + COmmunism, of course.
.
LowtherCastle
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Thwarting Spy Missions
Having our spy on the tile and running counter-espionage missions have a huge impact. Here's a good summary post on it.
For Churchill with about the same total espionage as us, the chances of his sabotage building mission failing are:
(25 * .5) * 1.1 * 100% = 13%
Put our spy on the tile:
((25 * .5) + 15) * 1.1 * 100% = 30%
Then run a counteresionage mission:
((25 * .5) + 15 + 20) * 1.1 * 100% = 52%
--------------
Counterespionage missions are cheap as dirt and CANNOT fail: (...) * (100-100) = 0, as long as our spy doesn't get detected before running it.
They last for 10t on Normal speed, if I'm not mistaken. AI counter-espionage in this scenario is exagerated, I think, because the AIs have known us from the beginning and because we're all so tightly packed together. As soon as we have some cities close to Roosy, we'll want a spy in each of the nearest cities and a counter-espionage mission done on him every 10t for sure. He's got a ton of EPs he's just dying to use. He could sabotage our intel agencies, etc.
------------
There's one more interesting detail that I haven't found in any threads on espionage. Once in my testing a while ago, I stole Theology from Gandhi, the mission succeeded AND my spy got caught and killed.
It was most extraordinary. My conclusion is that the code runs two cycles: first, the spy mission cycle, then the spy detection cycle, but I'm speculating. The only problem with this is that, frankly, I don't remember if I had two spies on the tile. I might have and if so, that would be another possible explanation.
.
Having our spy on the tile and running counter-espionage missions have a huge impact. Here's a good summary post on it.
For Churchill with about the same total espionage as us, the chances of his sabotage building mission failing are:
(25 * .5) * 1.1 * 100% = 13%
Put our spy on the tile:
((25 * .5) + 15) * 1.1 * 100% = 30%
Then run a counteresionage mission:
((25 * .5) + 15 + 20) * 1.1 * 100% = 52%
--------------
Counterespionage missions are cheap as dirt and CANNOT fail: (...) * (100-100) = 0, as long as our spy doesn't get detected before running it.
They last for 10t on Normal speed, if I'm not mistaken. AI counter-espionage in this scenario is exagerated, I think, because the AIs have known us from the beginning and because we're all so tightly packed together. As soon as we have some cities close to Roosy, we'll want a spy in each of the nearest cities and a counter-espionage mission done on him every 10t for sure. He's got a ton of EPs he's just dying to use. He could sabotage our intel agencies, etc.
------------
There's one more interesting detail that I haven't found in any threads on espionage. Once in my testing a while ago, I stole Theology from Gandhi, the mission succeeded AND my spy got caught and killed.
It was most extraordinary. My conclusion is that the code runs two cycles: first, the spy mission cycle, then the spy detection cycle, but I'm speculating. The only problem with this is that, frankly, I don't remember if I had two spies on the tile. I might have and if so, that would be another possible explanation..
bcool
Deity
What does that mean? I think a ceasefire next turn after getting Rosey involved and taking Nanjing is a good way to lure those LBs out into the open or at least away from Beijing.
And what are you thinking of trading to Rosey (I assume you are bribing him into the war)?
LowtherCastle
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By radical, I meant trying to capture Beijing with 8-9 lbs in it...
Okay, I've played to T172.
Bribed Roosy with GP. Simply decided it was the safest option. PP has nothing in it, so I couldn't be sure Roosy wouldn't trade it immediately. Plus, I didn't like the idea of opening up Democracy to him, with security bureaus and Emancipation.
Stole NATIONALISM, and re-captured St Nick. Mao put the three lbs into Beijing, but unloaded one toward Nanjing, although I think it's out causing trouble rather than going to Nanjing.
I'm really not sure what to do next with Beijing. I guess the cease fire is okay, no matter where we decide to go next.
Save uploaded.
Here is your Session Turn Log from 1110 AD to 1120 AD:
Okay, I've played to T172.
Bribed Roosy with GP. Simply decided it was the safest option. PP has nothing in it, so I couldn't be sure Roosy wouldn't trade it immediately. Plus, I didn't like the idea of opening up Democracy to him, with security bureaus and Emancipation.
Stole NATIONALISM, and re-captured St Nick. Mao put the three lbs into Beijing, but unloaded one toward Nanjing, although I think it's out causing trouble rather than going to Nanjing.
I'm really not sure what to do next with Beijing. I guess the cease fire is okay, no matter where we decide to go next.
Save uploaded.
Here is your Session Turn Log from 1110 AD to 1120 AD:
Spoiler :
I think we can probably take Beijing on T+3 as long as it is not reinforced any more. With 10 trebuchets, and 11 follow on units we should be able to take Beijing. Now we've started the attack I can't see how we can gain anything by delaying the battle any longer. It will just give him a chance to build more longbows. Delaying would also remove whatever remaining chance we have of getting communism before the end of the golden age.
Why has fish been buildng a settler instead of maces/muskets. We could do with more units like this at the front. We can easily build settlers in any number of other cities.
I agree that the Globe Theatre in GP farm would be useful to help with unit building in the longer term, unfortunately I can't see how we can get it in time to help with this war.
The problem with this is that the AI will just build another spy, so we will suffer from the same amount of sabotage, just a little later.
Why has fish been buildng a settler instead of maces/muskets. We could do with more units like this at the front. We can easily build settlers in any number of other cities.
I agree that the Globe Theatre in GP farm would be useful to help with unit building in the longer term, unfortunately I can't see how we can get it in time to help with this war.
The problem with this is that the AI will just build another spy, so we will suffer from the same amount of sabotage, just a little later.
LowtherCastle
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I mentioned this in my turnset report. Churchill was moving on Lyons and I didn't want to close borders, so we needed an ice ball city.
I don't see it that way at all. Mao killed two granaries already, instead of one. Before long, he won't even be able to try any more. He'll still have his EPs, yes, but he won't be able to build spies any more. So it's a matter of buying time till we beat them down.
EPs will become cheap for us before long, as will the cost of these missions. Far cheaper than the 9
per turn we're losing in Pigs for the next eon. And all the lost food and hammers in Orleans.
bcool
Deity
If we ceasefire, then declare and move on and threaten Nanjing I think there is a reasonable chance he would move the units from Beijing (since it is no longer being threatened) either to help with Nanjing and/or cities threatened by Rosey.
If we continue then I think we will take heavy losses and will give Mao time to reinforce it more even as we bring in our reinforcements.
I don't think the battle will be significantly worse if we ceasefire and I think there is a good chance we will get an opportunity to hit it with fewer defenders.
Would be nice to send a spy deeper into Mao's territory to see what if anything is happening over on the Rosey side of things.
I generally consider AI espionage more of a nuisance than anything, so I really don't bother dealing with it. Not sure what it is that's causing their apparent over-spending in this game... I'll leave espionage spending to the rest of you to decide on.
Taking Beijing now would come at a high price, IMHO. He could easily further reinforce it before we get the strike in. Don't see how we could really continue on after that, seeing as how we don't have any units trailing. We need to get those LBs out of the city somehow (that's what I was hoping for with the Roos bribe). We also do need to take Nanjing soon. Not at all sure how we take it most efficiently, though. All our units would end up in Shanghai with an immediate CF, correct?
WW would get reset with a CF, wouldn't it? We'll be up to 3 or 4 in cities like GP in no time. It's already slowing down our gpp production, it seems.
Taking Beijing now would come at a high price, IMHO. He could easily further reinforce it before we get the strike in. Don't see how we could really continue on after that, seeing as how we don't have any units trailing. We need to get those LBs out of the city somehow (that's what I was hoping for with the Roos bribe). We also do need to take Nanjing soon. Not at all sure how we take it most efficiently, though. All our units would end up in Shanghai with an immediate CF, correct?
WW would get reset with a CF, wouldn't it? We'll be up to 3 or 4 in cities like GP in no time. It's already slowing down our gpp production, it seems.
I was suggesting drafting for the longer term. We already see the effects of a lack of consistent production in Beijing. Soon enough we'll need a steady stream of units (very soon, I think), if we really wanna take out all the AI. Fish should go into full unit spam mode as soon as possible, I agree.
GP Farm is the best spot, I was just assuming we'd wanna stay in gpp mode there. I guess we can't really have it all...
If we're seriously considering a longer run of Nationhood and struggling a bit to reduce Mao for the Communism steal, I'd delay the Nationhood switch until the end of the GA.
bcool
Deity
I don't think it is. But I definitely think a focus on getting spices asap, dyes asap is in order ("waste" worker turns for it.)
We also need more workers in the island region.
Would you kill the longbow in the open with the musket at 87% odds before the ceasefire? Not sure I would have gone with drill for him, why not CI and cover?
Yes, I would. We need them in the open like that, so much easier. I don't like Drill either, no. We needed Combat-line.
What are we thinking is the schedule for Communism now?
What happens if the Mao war doesn't turn for the better in the next 5-ish turns? Do we ever consider Libbing Communism? Back to my rant from a few weeks ago...
It would certainly be done in time for the free civic switch, contribute a pile of cash and we could start on ep towards Roosevelt or Churchill (depending on what we want to steal first), while bulbing and slow-teching Bio (we're already talking about saving one of the two GS), followed by Steel. (We don't have Compass yet, do we? Otherwise there's no Bio bulb possible.)
What happens if the Mao war doesn't turn for the better in the next 5-ish turns? Do we ever consider Libbing Communism? Back to my rant from a few weeks ago...
It would certainly be done in time for the free civic switch, contribute a pile of cash and we could start on ep towards Roosevelt or Churchill (depending on what we want to steal first), while bulbing and slow-teching Bio (we're already talking about saving one of the two GS), followed by Steel. (We don't have Compass yet, do we? Otherwise there's no Bio bulb possible.)
LowtherCastle
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Mao Campaign
1. We were in a hurry to know down Beijing's walls before he built a castle. That's done, for now. Nonetheless, we'll probably lose at least 4-5 trebs just getting the lbs damaged enough to have positive odds for the trebs. Still, coming in with 9 trebs, our maces shouldn't suffere serious losses, if any. Then there's the issue of protecting Shanghai if we go toward Nanjing.
2. In Nanjing, our trebs start with winning odds. So if we can grab it quickly and defend Shanghai, then our bombarders should make it back to Beijing before it's defenses have recovered too much.
3. We don't need Gunagzhou for COmmunism. Hangzhou would be enough, and after Beijing falls, there's an open path to Hangzhou.
4. I promoted the Musket to Drill II because he's alone, in case a bunch of LBs went down on him, to give him a better chance of taking no damage. I didn't even think of CI cover, actually. I never use it.
1. We were in a hurry to know down Beijing's walls before he built a castle. That's done, for now. Nonetheless, we'll probably lose at least 4-5 trebs just getting the lbs damaged enough to have positive odds for the trebs. Still, coming in with 9 trebs, our maces shouldn't suffere serious losses, if any. Then there's the issue of protecting Shanghai if we go toward Nanjing.
2. In Nanjing, our trebs start with winning odds. So if we can grab it quickly and defend Shanghai, then our bombarders should make it back to Beijing before it's defenses have recovered too much.
3. We don't need Gunagzhou for COmmunism. Hangzhou would be enough, and after Beijing falls, there's an open path to Hangzhou.
4. I promoted the Musket to Drill II because he's alone, in case a bunch of LBs went down on him, to give him a better chance of taking no damage. I didn't even think of CI cover, actually. I never use it.
LowtherCastle
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Research, Drafting, and GLobe Theatre
This is the sequence I was thinking:
0. Carry on the Mao campaign as effectively as possible, knowing that we have a lot more warring to do, so there's no need to be impatient.
1. Nationalism(5t) to accrue EPs against Mao.
2. Start building the Taj Mahal to be able to have another GA some turns after this one's over.
3. Run some slavery between GAs. Finish GLobe, maybe an intel agency, chs, and any other infra we need.
4. Not worry about GPPs between GAs. We'll make plenty of them later if we have Sushi.
5. 2nd GA, etc...
6. GLobe Theater enables us to produce tons of units under nationalism and/or slavery. In a space-parts hammer city, it also means we have no worries about over-poprushing toward the end to get a bunch of parts lined up for 1t completion. So Globe serves more than one purpose here.
We don't need to commit ourselves to the slingshot yet. We can wait to see how the Mao Campaign goes.
CF in no way whatsoever resets WW. It doesn't even shut it off that turn.
This is the sequence I was thinking:
0. Carry on the Mao campaign as effectively as possible, knowing that we have a lot more warring to do, so there's no need to be impatient.
1. Nationalism(5t) to accrue EPs against Mao.
2. Start building the Taj Mahal to be able to have another GA some turns after this one's over.
3. Run some slavery between GAs. Finish GLobe, maybe an intel agency, chs, and any other infra we need.
4. Not worry about GPPs between GAs. We'll make plenty of them later if we have Sushi.
5. 2nd GA, etc...
6. GLobe Theater enables us to produce tons of units under nationalism and/or slavery. In a space-parts hammer city, it also means we have no worries about over-poprushing toward the end to get a bunch of parts lined up for 1t completion. So Globe serves more than one purpose here.
We don't need to commit ourselves to the slingshot yet. We can wait to see how the Mao Campaign goes.
CF in no way whatsoever resets WW. It doesn't even shut it off that turn.
LowtherCastle
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Beijing, part 2
I forgot to mention, that if we decide to go after Beijing, then I would do it this way. Assuming all the lbs remain inside Beijing.
T173
Move the bombarders NW to the rice
Move all other available trebs to teh forest at Shanghai-NW
T174
Move the bombarders W to the hill at Beijing-NW, thus blocking further reinforcements.
Move the Shanghai-NW/W/SW units NW, thus sealing Beijing off from attacking Shangahi, but still having a release point to the N.
I forgot to mention, that if we decide to go after Beijing, then I would do it this way. Assuming all the lbs remain inside Beijing.
T173
Move the bombarders NW to the rice
Move all other available trebs to teh forest at Shanghai-NW
T174
Move the bombarders W to the hill at Beijing-NW, thus blocking further reinforcements.
Move the Shanghai-NW/W/SW units NW, thus sealing Beijing off from attacking Shangahi, but still having a release point to the N.
I think we should kill that longbow out in the open with the musket. I also think that in future promoting up the combat line is better then the drill line. If more than 2 longbows attack a musket, giving it drill 2 won't help much
I think we should attack Beijing before he can build even more longbows there. We can take it on T+3 with the loss of around half of our trebuchets. Once we have this city we should be able to take Nanjing/Huangzhou/Guangzhou relatively easily. Weakening our stack attacking Nanjing before taking the one city that will be most costly to take does not make sense to me. Going for Beijing first should also allow us to take 3 cities quicker than if we take Nanjing first.
We may not need the GPP points, but we will probably want the extra beakers from Caste System specialists to research the techs needed for corporations.
I think we should attack Beijing before he can build even more longbows there. We can take it on T+3 with the loss of around half of our trebuchets. Once we have this city we should be able to take Nanjing/Huangzhou/Guangzhou relatively easily. Weakening our stack attacking Nanjing before taking the one city that will be most costly to take does not make sense to me. Going for Beijing first should also allow us to take 3 cities quicker than if we take Nanjing first.
We may not need the GPP points, but we will probably want the extra beakers from Caste System specialists to research the techs needed for corporations.
LowtherCastle
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Okay, I'm going to attack that lb in the open. Then I'll cease fire, if we still can, afterwards.
Done. Our musket is now a useless 3.2/9.
THe problem with attacking Beijing on T+3 is that we really don't have enough maces to do it with. We have
3 CRIII
1 CRII
1 CRII slightly damaged
2 CI cover
1 CI medic
--
8 maces
2 CRII swords
1 pikeman
-------------
If we're going to do that, then I would want to trade
Mao Theology for 140g
Gandhi PP for Feudalism + 130g
and upgrde both swords for 220g.
The other choice would be to attack Nanjing, moving
2 CRIII
2 CI cover
2 swords
1 pike
5 trebs
2 cats
on T+0 to attack Nanjing on T+2.
.
Done. Our musket is now a useless 3.2/9.
THe problem with attacking Beijing on T+3 is that we really don't have enough maces to do it with. We have
3 CRIII
1 CRII
1 CRII slightly damaged
2 CI cover
1 CI medic
--
8 maces
2 CRII swords
1 pikeman
-------------
If we're going to do that, then I would want to trade
Mao Theology for 140g
Gandhi PP for Feudalism + 130g
and upgrde both swords for 220g.
The other choice would be to attack Nanjing, moving
2 CRIII
2 CI cover
2 swords
1 pike
5 trebs
2 cats
on T+0 to attack Nanjing on T+2.
.
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