SGOTM 12 - One Short Straw

[babybluepants]

I really hope we can hit Churchill before he has Feudalism for too many turns. Do we want to think about just crushing Churchill via Nanjing?

This from the guy who reportedly doesn't mind facing Rifles...

I think we need more build-up personally. I'd prefer having Steel at this point, too. If we've given up on the Econ race, we may as well tech it now and should be pretty fast getting there. Attack with a brand new stack of cannons and muskets a bit later and just crush him. Finish Mao off and continue developing in the meantime.

Edit: if we attack a pre-Rifling Emp AI (even PRO/CHA) with 20+ cannons, we won't even lose any units. Literally.

Edit2: When I say more build-up, I mean quickly. I might be open to a Police State / Nationhood / Theo run, between the two GA's. Need to check logistics on that, though..

BTW, I still prefer going after Roosevelt by a mile.

 

[bcool]

This from the guy who reportedly doesn't mind facing Rifles...

that's because rosey is useful for us. He can tech for us. Churchill is just a quick way to expand our empire.

 

[Mitchum]

Good going so far, LC. Beijing is sweet. Does it happen to have tons of settled great people too? Just checked and there is a settled GG!

So I can put the slider at 326 base for a margin of error, plus we gain pop3 next turn which is +9 final .

Does that check out?

Looks correct re: formulas and pop count. I did a quick check with our test game and the 1.2 factor is correct too. This sounds like the best bet and avoids losing any turns on Biology. Be sure to check the final science output before you end your turn. Changing a specialist in a city here and there will affect the total base beaker output. Current options are 280 at 20% and 339 at 30%. It may make sense to play with things to get the 339 closer to your 326 target... within reason, of course.

Looking at the save, I think we need a LOT more work shops and fewer farms very soon. Our farms are about to make our population explode with Biology. We need to be able to work the workshops to slow growth and increase hammer output. Plus building wealth will be the best way to keep our slider up during the middle of the tech tree.

FYI, I won't be able to play after LC. We have company coming to sunny So. Cal. this weekend to get out of the snow in Washington.

 

[LowtherCastle]

I bought maps from Gandhi on T174, after he got Optics, and it shows that the Xian-1N road has been freshly PILLAGED. So Roosy is there doing something.

Guangzhou (along with Chendu) is clearly the only Mao city we're strongly interested in right now. So I see this path forward:

1. Next turn our trireme peeks into Hangzhou. If Hangzhou happens to have only 1 or 2 defenders, we go after it, attempting to get it on T178.
2. If Hangzhou has 3 or more defenders, we simply go after Guangzhou, capturing it on T181 at the latest.

We plan to switch to State Property with our next GA, which will be with 2GPs or Taj, whichever comes sooner.

Then we bee-line cannons + Globe Theatre and steamroll Churchill, building the FP in Hastings. We also gear up to steamroll Roosevelt. Pr maybe Roosy first, we'll see how things look.

Meanwhile, we need to chain-gift Roosy cities so we can start stealing his techs.

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So the remainder of my turnset will probably be uneventful. Then some lucky soul gets to beat down on Guangzhou.

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Btw, i made a quick comparison of slingshotting Bio versus Communism and researching Bio is about 8t of full-time research, whereas stealing COmmunism is about 2t of full-time research. So delaying Communism is worth it, I think.

 

[mdy]

Excellent news on taking Beijing with so few losses! Unfortunately I can't see how we can reduce Mao to 3 cities now before the golden age ends, so I guess state property will have to wait till our next GA.

I agree with LC's beaker calculations for gettin scientifis method.

As we aren't getting the Economics GM we will need to get one some other way for Sid's. With an early scientific method we could hire the maximum number of merchats in pigs after it generates it's next GP (including firing the spy-now we can build intelligence agencies we no longer have quite so much need of them). We might hire merchants in other cities as well just in case we got an artist here instead?

Alternatively we could go for a 100% GM in GP farm if we delayed the Globe/drafting. Bermuda could be used to build additional units instead in the short term.

I agree with going for steel after biology.

 

[Mitchum]

Looking at the save, I have a few comments:

I'm not sure how we could capture even one city in 3 turns with the state of our army. It will take 3 turns just to get into position, not to mention that we need at least a turn to heal.

We should move at least one more unit (cat or treb) into Beijing. That HA could get lucky and beat our wounded mace there.

I agree that it would be nice to try to take Lyons from Churchill if possible.

Should we dot-map the iceballs so that we can fit as many of them as possible up north?

If we can't steal Communism from Mao in the next three turns, I suggest that we ease off on the espionage slider just a bit. We're getting 65 epp/turn at 0% espionage. This will go down about 25% when we go out of Nationalism but will go up again once Beijing comes out of revolt. Alternatively, we can keep the espionage slider up during Nationalism to get the 25% bonus but start spending some epp on Roosevelt/Gandhi now such that we don't get more on Mao that what we need to steal Communism when the time comes.​

EDIT: x-posts with mdy and LC

 

[bcool]

I think there might be several techs we are going to want to steal from Rosey in quick succession. I think stationing spies in more than one of the city gift sites might make sense (even if this means a more expensive steal).
If we station the spies soon we will be to immediately get the 50% discount even if the cities are not settled.

 

[LowtherCastle]

Chain-gifting Roosy Cities -- Two Possibilities

Possibility 1: We settle three garbage cities and raze Lyons+Hangzhou

Possibility 2: We settle one garbage city, one good city to re-capture later

Bear in mind that once we have gifted our Trojan City to Roosy, we can then proceed to capture all the other cities, as we wish. Perhaps that's a good reason to do Possibility 2. The problem with that possibility is that it requires us to also capture Marseilles and Lyons, but that's not a big problem.

We need to start thinking about this very soon because we need to settle the cities, in addition to capturing the other ones.

In particular, we should settle our Trojan City asap so we can put spies in there. If we want to steal a bunch of techs at once, we might as well just stick 10 spies in there.

 

[Mitchum]

Isn't our Trojan City already settled -> St. Nicks? Or can we not reach that far... We could go from Marseilles to Galley City to St. Nicks, but that would piss off Gandhi earlier than we want to and would prevent us from stealing techs from him too I guess.

We could also give Roosevelt Chengdu and Hangzhou (if he doesn't caputure them himself). Then we'd only have to settle two cities using the option 1....

 

[bcool]

In particular, we should settle our Trojan City asap so we can put spies in there. If we want to steal a bunch of techs at once, we might as well just stick 10 spies in there.

At least in terms of spy efficiency we might want to station spies at other cities in the chain too. the 50% discount for being stationary can rack up even before the city exists, and we don't get the increased odds of being detected and the reduced odds for mission success for having multiple spies.
The mission might be slightly more expensive because it is farther away, but the increased odds might make up for it.

 

[LowtherCastle]

Isn't our Trojan City already settled -> St. Nicks? Or can we not reach that far... We could go from Marseilles to Galley City to St. Nicks, but that would piss off Gandhi earlier than we want to and would prevent us from stealing techs from him too I guess.

We could also give Roosevelt Chengdu and Hangzhou (if he doesn't caputure them himself). Then we'd only have to settle two cities using the option 1....

There are two problems with St Nicks, what you mentioned, it being too far, and we still need it for Churchill and Stalin, after Mao.

Yes, we could use Galley City from Marseilles. In fact, we could just give him Galley City. I'm reluctant to do that because then we lose our lucrative trade routes with Gandhi. Maybe someone could analyze how much we really need them. Plus, if Gandhi becomes our WE, which he would if we DoWed him again, then no more tech trades with him. Eventually, that's okay, but for now, I think it might be too soon.

Anyway, we're only talking about 1 extra city at 59h + a ConfuMiss, right? I don't know, this is all new to me...

Yes, we could give him CHengdu. Especially if the intel agency auto-razes when we capture it.

At least in terms of spy efficiency we might want to station spies at other cities in the chain too. the 50% discount for being stationary can rack up even before the city exists, and we don't get the increased odds of being detected and the reduced odds for mission success for having multiple spies.
The mission might be slightly more expensive because it is farther away, but the increased odds might make up for it.

Quite a bit more expensive if it's Lyons or Marseilles because they both have Buddhism, costing us another 15%, totaling about 35% or so. That's 2/3 more expensive.

But it's definitely a possibility.

 

[bcool]

Quite a bit more expensive if it's Lyons or Marseilles because they both have Buddhism, costing us another 15%, totaling about 35% or so. That's 2/3 more expensive.

But it's definitely a possibility.

well we can spread confu there after we capture them. And the espionage calculations go like this don't they?

Base cost * 0.5 (stationary spy) * 0.6 (holy city and our religion their) * 0.5 (cultural bonus) * 1.20? (distance cost increase) * (other modifiers) = cost of mission

So multiplying by 0.6 (for holy city and religion) vs not multiplying by it means...
Base * 0.18 with holy city and religion
Base * 0.3 without holy city and religion

Or 1.667 times more expensive But that is misleading since it doesn't represent a ton of

 

[Mitchum]

@ bcool

I don't think we'll get the 50% cultural bonus in all cities. I'm not certain, but I think it depends how much cumulative culture we have on the given city square. I expect it to be much less than 50% for many of the potential cities we could steal from.

We need to test this with our test save at different locations to see what the real multipliers will be (e.g. distance factor and cultural bonus).

Speaking of a test game, are you keeping one up to date LC?

 

[babybluepants]

Plan sounds good, LC. Depends on what we see in Hangzhou. I expect to see only 2 defenders, but may be completely wrong...

Option 1 looks better to me for chain-gifting of cities.

GS bulb: -1911 (pop137= 1500 + (137*3) = 1500 + 411)

I somehow thought it was 3xPop for Epic and 2xPop for Normal. I can't look at the game now, but this could just be confirmed by selecting the GS and mousing over the bulb, rather than calculating.

I'd prefer wasting some beakers over cutting it too close here, btw.

Should we dot-map the iceballs so that we can fit as many of them as possible up north?

Yes. The current placement is ok, though I'd have done it 1N.

There are two problems with St Nicks, what you mentioned, it being too far, and we still need it for Churchill and Stalin, after Mao.

One thing comes to mind:
Are we sure he doesn't have ICBM's? As long as he doesn't see our cities, he can't nuke us, right?

We plan to switch to State Property with our next GA, which will be with 2GPs or Taj, whichever comes sooner.

I think I'd prefer saving the 2GP for a while, as we're unsure about how long this game is. Better to get as much GA as possible with a fully mature empire. No?

As we aren't getting the Economics GM we will need to get one some other way for Sid's. With an early scientific method we could hire the maximum number of merchats in pigs after it generates it's next GP

Agree.

that's because rosey is useful for us. He can tech for us. Churchill is just a quick way to expand our empire.

I know what you meant Fair enough, it seems we'll be going after Churchill first. It's logistically less complicated anyway.

I think you're underestimating the later war effort, though. We don't wanna have to mass-produce another army of Rifles or Arty or anything, or spend 1000's of gold on upgrades, if we can just end this at current tech level. I believe in taking AIs from the top down as soon as a I have a reasonable tech/production window for it.

Also, the "he'll tech for us argument" I never understood (not just in this game, I mean). Pretty sure we can use his cities and GLH to tech better than he can, now that we're under State Prop / Corporations. This is Emp, after all - how much more tech do you expect a land-limited AI with a bunch of fallout tiles to get on our timeline?

Edit: that said, as long as we're killing someone soon, I'm happy enough.

 

[babybluepants]

BTW, mdy, can you take the next turnset? LC will presumably finish first thing tmr.

 

[bcool]

One thing comes to mind:
Are we sure he doesn't have ICBM's? As long as he doesn't see our cities, he can't nuke us, right?

That is an uncomfortable thought. We want to spy on his city I think before we do gift him a city. I don't think there is any urgency to get military science.

Hmm, another uncomfortable thought, the only Aluminum in the world is under one of the ice ball cities (I guess that is easily solved).

Also, the "he'll tech for us argument" I never understood (not just in this game, I mean

Well under corporations the city maintenance will be something working against us. And it will take time for his cities to become productive for us. (Time to come out of revolt, time to spread the corporations to his cities, time to spread our religion?, time to move workers in)

If we could capture the GLH in ~5 turns and without too much effort then yes maybe that makes sense.
However, I assume we are going to get corporations in less than 20 turns, and it seems like that would make the effort to take the GLH not worth the cost.

We will benefit from stealing and trading for the techs he has and will produce in the next 20 turns without waiting for his cities to become productive for us and without the cost of 2 front war effort.

Maybe I'm wrong. If we can reasonably (without sacrificing other important goals) produce an army that can take Churchill and Rosey down then maybe we should do both.

 

[bcool]

I don't think we'll get the 50% cultural bonus in all cities. I'm not certain, but I think it depends how much cumulative culture we have on the given city square. I expect it to be much less than 50% for many of the potential cities we could steal from.

I think there is some bug with this. If we own the city for 1 turn, at least in the few turns after that we will get close to 50% cultural bonus if we put any culture into that city. But further testing needs to be done here. Since I don't fully understand it.

 

[LowtherCastle]

I don't think we'll get the 50% cultural bonus in all cities. I'm not certain, but I think it depends how much cumulative culture we have on the given city square. I expect it to be much less than 50% for many of the potential cities we could steal from.

Since those cities have BUddhism, Roosy will imeediately start accumulating culture to counteract whatever we put into them while owning them. But bcool is talking about a quick tech grab at the beginning. The first turn we give them to Roosy, we'll have the full 50% because he won't have any yet. After that we can just use Trojan City which wouldn't have Buddhism, so he would have to run an artist or something to gain some culture.

Speaking of a test game, are you keeping one up to date LC?

I was thinking about that...are we ready to maybe stop updating the test save? If you guys think we need it, I can give it a shot, but it's getting pretty complicated, isn't it?

 

[babybluepants]

I was thinking about that...are we ready to maybe stop updating the test save? If you guys think we need it, I can give it a shot, but it's getting pretty complicated, isn't it?

It would be nice to keep it up, I think. I know it's getting quite painful to update, but I think I'd rather have a bunch of secondary cities off in hammers than not have a test at all. What do you think?

 

[LowtherCastle]

I somehow thought it was 3xPop for Epic and 2xPop for Normal.

Yes. The current placement is ok, though I'd have done it 1N.

Are we sure he doesn't have ICBM's? As long as he doesn't see our cities, he can't nuke us, right?

3/4.5

I roaded for 1N, but then changed my mind because border expansion would block our road to the iron city, we'll eventually settle for us. THere's another road we could build, but I just decided to give him absolutely nothing. We owed him one for settling Rheims.

I was thinking eventually we'll send a caravel or post-Astro workboat to see if he nukes it out of the water...