SGOTM 12 - One Short Straw

[babybluepants]

Can we do 2 1pop whips and 1 3pop whip for max OF? That would be 1/3 WS, right?

 

[Mitchum]

So we actually want to be running an artist rather than working a tile each turn.

Yes. That's in my draft PPP. It will likely take me a while to type it out and post it.

Let's keep this discussion going. Do we want to steal Guilds and Banking now? Or should we wait 4 turns until we have enough epp and try to steal all 5 techs (again, assumes Roosy knows Corporations)?

Current plan is to steal Banking from Vlad and Guilds, Econ, Constitution and Corp from Trojan City. Cool?

 

[LowtherCastle]

       Silver  Troy    Vlad  Difference
       ------  ----    ----  ----------
		
Guilds	421	425	463     +4  +42
		                                       
Bank	295	298	324     +3  +29 
		                                       
Econ	590	595	648     +5  +58
                                       		
Corp	674	680	740     +6  +66
                                       
Const	842     850	925     +8  +83

-----   ---    ----     ---   ---- ----

Total  2822    2848    3100    +26 +278

 

[LowtherCastle]

Base OF was 44 hammers (i.e. usual max * 1.5).

I was hoping so. We can (ab)use that to get Wall Street 1 or more turns sooner, depending on how many times we choose to whip.

CUrrently, we can get about 33hpt out of Fish, with SP+forge = 44hpt = 14t for Wall Street.

If we pre-finish builds consecutively timed to flow into WS, as we did for Oxford, we can get 32h per build. But now it looks like we can also get 44 on top of that. So that would be 76h for market, 150h for grocer, 200h for bank. (I assumed they'll still be capped at the build cost). But wait, I think the cap is lowered by hammer bonuses, such as the forge. We need to test all this anyway. BUt that would mean 150/1.25=120h, and 200/1.25=160h OF.

So our test would show:

1st turn: 193*1.25=241h plus (600-241)/44hpt=8t+7h, or
1st turn: 233*1.25=291h plus (600-291)/44hpt=7t+1h

So my test hypothesis is that we could shorten from 14t to 9t. That's pretty good.

xpost w/bbp
.

 

[Mitchum]

       Silver  Troy    Vlad  Difference
       ------  ----    ----  ----------
		
Guilds	421	425	463     +4  +42
		                                       
Bank	295	298	324     +3  +29 
		                                       
Econ	590	595	648     +5  +58
                                       		
Corp	674	680	740     +6  +66
                                       
Const	842     850	925     +8  +83

-----   ---    ----     ---   ---- ----

Total  2822    2848    3100    +26 +278

Those numbers match my spreadsheet for Vlad and Troy.

Here's an idea. Why don't we gift Vlad to Roos this turn and steal Guilds now. Then Fish can get started on the Grocer right away if we're successful...

Vlad is having a positive impact on our economy (+4, +4.37, -0.17), so there is no rush to get rid of it if you guys aren't in a hurry to steal Guilds.

Although, the extra from the workshop would be another nice bonus...

EDIT: Then we gift Troy to Roosevelt once we have enough epp to steal all the rest, so as not to expose our spies...

 

[Mitchum]

Can we do 2 1pop whips and 1 3pop whip for max OF? That would be 1/3 WS, right?

I'll play around with this on the test save to see how to maximize the overflow into WS. I'll assume that the whipping happens after the current golden age. I'll also assume no 10% SP bonus and the 25% OR bonus. Is that the current thinking (i.e. SP -> FM, Pac -> OR and Caste -> Slavery)?

 

[bcool]

Are sure that the benefits of a staggered whip into WS is better than the benefits of an earlier Market, Grocer and Bank?

I mean the Market gives happiness as well as a decent amount of wealth from the shrine (as well as from turns where we might have some percent wealth). Are we sure this happiness and wealth benefit is less useful than WS 5 turns earlier? Plus the Grocer 5 turns earlier? And the bank 5 turns earlier?

Or is this too simple an analysis?

 

[Mitchum]

Are sure that the benefits of a staggered whip into WS is better than the benefits of an earlier Market, Grocer and Bank?

I mean the Market gives happiness as well as a decent amount of wealth from the shrine (as well as from turns where we might have some percent wealth). Are we sure this happiness and wealth benefit is less useful than WS 5 turns earlier? Plus the Grocer 5 turns earlier? And the bank 5 turns earlier?

Or is this too simple an analysis?

We could have the market 4-5 turns earlier, the grocer 1 or 2 turns earlier, and the bank at the same time, unless we revolt to Slavery next turn and start whipping right away... Or am I missing something?

 

[LowtherCastle]

Here's an idea. Why don't we gift Vlad to Roos this turn and steal Guilds now. Then Fish can get started on the Grocer right away if we're successful...

Vlad just got settled this turn. It has 0/10 culture.

Is that the current thinking (i.e. SP -> FM, Pac -> OR and Caste -> Slavery)?

I doubt it, but I'm still looking at when we can realistically start cranking out execs and have WS finished. FM will cost us an arm and a leg at the beginning, even with the extra TR.

Are sure that the benefits of a staggered whip into WS is better than the benefits of an earlier Market, Grocer and Bank?

Legitimate question that I've also wondered about. There' just so much to analyze at this point...

We could have the market 4-5 turns earlier, the grocer 1 or 2 turns earlier, and the bank at the same time, unless we revolt to Slavery next turn and start whipping right away... Or am I missing something?

Yes, you're right. We can do the poprushing all in one turn or whenever (we're in slavery). We just can't finish the builds till T(WS)-3; T(WS)-2; T(WS)-1 ... something like that, so the overflows concatenate.

 

[babybluepants]

5t of WS = 5*100% = 500%
5t Market + 3t Grocer + 1t Bank (maybe) = 8*25% + 50% = 250%
Seems pretty straightforward. Or am I missing something? The bigger question is whether we want Slavery (this is what speeds it up, not stagger). Seems that consensus is we do.

I can't really see us being ready for FM by the end of this GA. Haven't analyzed it, though.

 

[LowtherCastle]

Here's my proposal back to the drawing board for stealing Roosy's techs since Mitchum just loooooves the idea of burning spies at 63% odds...

T+0
Sell Churchill our maps for 105g
Set EP slider to 100%
Fiddle around with MM to get enough gold to cover a 100% slider (like build weatlh in Bcool Island or whatever), plus maybe work some extra coastal or other commerce tiles here and there to increase the EPs a bit, but nothing extreme.

Spy in Hangzhou moves to Beijing rice tile
Galley at Shanghai-2NE moves 1E

Spy at Shanghai-SE boards galley at Shanghai-3E
Galley at Shanghai-3E goes to Orleans, transfer spy to 2mvmt galley
2mvmt galley in Orleans takes spy into Troy and deposits in Troy on T+2

T+1
Steal Guilds from Troy
Steal Banking from Vlad
Steal Econ from Troy
Steal Const from Troy (I think we should have enough EPs, just barely, but maybe not, because I think when it shows 1.08% EP spending, it's actually somewhere between 1.08 and 1.0899%)

Spy on the Beijing rice tile boards the galley at Shanghai-3N which transfers the spy to the galley at Shanghai-2NE-1E, which moves into Vlad and deposits the spy in Vlad on T+2

T+1+X
Troy steals Corporation (if spy still available and we have EPs for COnstitution)

T+7
Troy steals Corporation (whichever is now cheaper)
Vlad steals Corporation

 

[babybluepants]

Should we send that one spy to Xian right now, as an eventual backup? How much do techs cost over there?

Roosevelt researched DR last, and PP now. Don't know that we can count on a Corp steal, but I guess we'll wait and see...

Edit: xpost w LC
Do we know he has Corp already? It would show up in Can Research otherwise?
Edit2:
You mean steal Const first, and Corp last, right?

 

[LowtherCastle]

Should we send that one spy to Xian right now, as an eventual backup? How much do techs cost over there?

Roosevelt researched DR last, and PP now. Don't know that we can count on a Corp steal, but I guess we'll wait and see...

Edit: xpost w LC
Do we know he has Corp already? It would show up in Can Research otherwise?
Edit2:
You mean steal Const first, and Corp last, right?

No culture in XIan, so techs cost 2X + distance %. No good.

Roosy got Corp ages ago. Yes, for a while it showed up on his Can Research list, then vanished later.

No, I mean steal Corp first, because I'm an idiot and forgot that ConsTITution was a prereq...back to the drawing board. FUdge heCK.

 

[LowtherCastle]

bbp, could you please do me a favor and check what Roosy's EP spending % was last turn and how many EPs we put in last turn to make it 1.08% this turn?

 

[babybluepants]

Last turn:
112%
448ept

 

[Mitchum]

since Mitchum just loooooves the idea of burning spies at 63% odds...

That was when I thought bbp was going to be doing the stealing. Now that it's during my turnset, I want to rethink that... J/K.

Vlad just got settled this turn. It has 0/10 culture.

Doh!!

I doubt it, but I'm still looking at when we can realistically start cranking out execs and have WS finished. FM will cost us an arm and a leg at the beginning, even with the extra TR.

This is when a test game would come in handy... I think if we revolt to FM on the last turn of the golden age (and Slavery of course) and then K-whip (i.e. Kremlin whip ) courthouses everywhere on that same turn, with the extra trade route I think it will be about a wash, but I'm not sure. We do lose out on the 10% and the +1 from work shops, but that's pretty insignificant compared to the benefits of Sushi, especially on this map.

So the real questions are:

1. When will our next GA be for anarchy-free civics switches?
2. How long will it take to found Sushi and spread it around?

Does someone have time to create a quick test in WB with the current cities we have +Nanjing at the current pops? Then we can actually compare the expenses between FM and SP. Then put a CH everywhere and see what that does to our costs.

We don't have to decide this right now, so I'll try to do it after I've posted my PPP. My first mini-turnset will likely be until the turn before the GA ends unless something wacky happens with the war(s) or tech stealing.

 

[LowtherCastle]

A few other random details before I crash and burn:

0. Gpt trade with Churchill, of course. (Probalby on your PPP already.)
1. In 2t, offer Roosy PP for gold, if he still doesn't have it. (You may not see his reserach anymore)
2. Be ready to steal CHurchill's 5 wkrs on the Oxford sugar (south of Beijing), using musket on a galley from a fort at Beijing-SE.
3. If Nanjing doesn't build walls, I think you can capture it in 2t. COnsider moving the musket out of Shanghai (T+0), but not across his border, to see if you draw out an lb or more. If you do, put the musket + enough of those 3 trebs so he can't capture Shanghai by bad RNG. BUt don't attack his lbs on the plains, just move the stack next to Nanjing to stop the lbs from returning.
4. Think about launching our attack on Churchill starting with Tours. If you leave a few muskets at Marseilles-2W, where they are now, they both threaten Marseilles and can protect either Orleans or Rheims. My hunch is that they'll stay put. If not, all the better, because our fantasy is to be able to attack them on the flats in our culture where we get no WW whatsoever! It's conceivable they'll stay there for the entire war, or not, or he might DoW us first...

We could also decide to entice them out, by leaving Tours empty after capturing, than massacring them in our culture on the way.

5. Consider sending a few galleys via the Beijing canal to Hastings for a naval attack on York. Maybe after circumnavigation we have extras not needed for the Moscow-Chengdu galley-chain. Maybe finish the two in Orleans and Paris for that. You would probably also need to build an instant fort (7 workers?) at Hastings-NW to make this profitable.

6. For Sushi, we'll want a wb for the MOscow clams and in 8t (or later) for the Bermuda-3N fish. Is this something you should work in to your planning? (Depends on when we'll get Sushi.)

City MM
Moscow: CANCEL the workshop build!!! This will cut off irrigation to the rice. In fact, I never wanted the other workshop pre-build completed, and now we've gone and killed off two farms already, while Moscow could still grow a lot. In fact, I'd go ahead an pre-farm them again, because when we switch to Bureau, we might want farms there instead. Not sure.

Siberia: why not finish the market first?

Pigs: no uni, rather harbor(partial)-grocer(asap) The idea here is that Pigs anyway prefers to work merchants, even after we get the Sushi GM, and grocer gives us +2 merchant spaces for when we're in slavery--Pigs could still work 8-10 specialists and keep accumulating gpps. Actually, we want this for GP Farm too, but that's another story.

Bermuda: MM for max growth

-----------------

Strategy questions
1. Where do we want Versailles+FP? I think it might be smarter to start Versailles somewhere now, because later the FP will be much quicker to build instantly.
2. When do we run slavery?
3. When is our next GA?
4. When will we get SUshi? DO we want to settle 2 more Bcool Island cities with 4 more wbs for that?
5. Do we want to attack Roosy before Sushi? Or do we want to seed him a Sushi exec and let him spread them around, then attack... What about Gandhi? Seed him a Sushi exec. (Not really part of your turnset, I guess.)

xpost
.

 

[LowtherCastle]

This is when a test game would come in handy... I think if we revolt to FM on the last turn of the golden age (and Slavery of course) and then K-whip (i.e. Kremlin whip ) courthouses everywhere on that same turn, with the extra trade route I think it will be about a wash, but I'm not sure. We do lose out on the 10% and the +1 from work shops, but that's pretty insignificant compared to the benefits of Sushi, especially on this map.

And I'm wondering if we should just spam workshops everywhere and forget about Sushi. Beeline factories instead...

Edit: I'm no expert on corporations, but if you look at the Ducksesses latest culture graph, I'd wager that's a Sushi spam, with all its attendant culture. Edit2: And that jag on their score graph, from T212-T218 was a poprushing phase in which they poprushed a mess of execs and maybe chs and other infrastructure as well. That tells you about where they are compared to us, if my guessis right.

and with that, I bid ye all farewell till the morrow...

.

 

[babybluepants]

Moscow: CANCEL the workshop build!!! This will cut off irrigation to the rice.

Edit: I do think Moscow should only work 100hpt and then hire sci, rather than grow. We need a lot of tech quickly before the switch from State Prop pays off.

Versailles: should we seriously just let Roosevelt build it for us? He got DR first and has spammed wonders like mad lately. The placement should be useful.

 

[babybluepants]

Edit: I'm no expert on corporations, but if you look at the Ducksesses latest culture graph, I'd wager that's a Sushi spam, with all its attendant culture. Edit2: And that jag on their score graph, from T212-T218 was a poprushing phase in which they poprushed a mess of execs and maybe chs and other infrastructure as well. That tells you about where they are compared to us, if my guessis right.

Yeah, that's it. 1500's AD...