SGOTM 12 - Spooks

[Andronicus]

Checking progress graphs reveals all 4 teams moving 1 turn from start position (presumably 1SE).
Interestingly they all have 20 (not expected 21) tiles territory after expansion. The only reason I can see is overlap with AI city.
Perhaps we have a very close neighbour?

 

[killercane]

Well I am not the greatest at reading those charts, but I think Team Zoe settled in place and Klarius did not from culture/territory. Hard to tell about the others. Edit: Looking at your last thread, I am very happy I did not play SGOTM 11- MM hell!

 

[Abegweit]

a curragh per turn could quickly fill up those 12 free units. (allowing for workers and mp as well)

Well, we don't have to do it forever... Actually, the thing is that we have very little to build at all until Math, Iron and MM come in.

This is reason why the failing the Colossus attempt is not that disastrous. We will run out of things to build either way. The main thing we will have lost is not production but research, because we will have been building mines instead of roads.

One question I have is whether the most efficient research method is minsci on Writing or max. If the answer is min, it might not cost us any time at all (e.g. if the accumulated gold is sufficient to max out Philo in either case, then the result is the same). KC? What say you?

Well I am not the greatest at reading those charts, but I think Team Zoe settled in place and Klarius did not from culture/territory

Andronicus is the official Team Expert Tea Leaf Reader. Do NOT diss him. I agree that Zoe settled in place but A did mention four teams. There are now five that have posted results so presumably he only saw the other four. Interestingly Zoe has 21 tiles. Apparently our neighbour is to the south or the east.

How does that impact our plans? Among other things, it seems to me that it is an argument against curragh-Colossus as we might get Pottery anyway (it would be lucky to be sure). It might also be an argument in favour of a warrior first, but personally I think we are alone on this island. I don't believe the staff would have left teams at the mercy of a rush by a Diety opponent four tiles away.

 

[killercane]

I usually do not like min research, and here it is not good since the AIs probably will have writing before us, so we must buy it. We will get credit for researching it. We might even have to sell it around to cover our costs if we pay gpt. If we add in all the workers, we can turn some to scientists and research philo quicker if we think we may lose the race. This might delay the Golden Ivory Statue but not by much (if we even have math at that point).

Do we move the settler? Paul has not weighed in.

 

[Andronicus]

I agree that Zoe settled in place but A did mention four teams. There are now five that have posted results so presumably he only saw the other four. Interestingly Zoe has 21 tiles. Apparently our neighbour is to the south or the east.

Other than it being X Team not Zoe, I agree.
An AI capital 3S,1E or 3E,1S of plains 1SE of starting position would give that result (edit - so would a second city even closer)
As you say, unlikely for Gyathaar to leave us at the mercy of a deity AI sharing our island. OTOH it might just be a stroke of evil genius to catch out complacent teams who think he would never do it .

What does it all mean?

Start
Moving 1SE stronger in early growth (access to eastern cow immed) and long term research (once 2nd plains ivory hooked up). Having been corrected it gets my vote despite later lux connection.

Builds
Colossus or curraghs.
Colossus is only small chance IMO - Gyathaar is usually quite generous in AI starting sites, I doubt one of the scientific AI starting with BW would not be able to build it in less than 20 turns.
Curraghs allow earlier and hence further exploration resulting in more contacts which gives more trading opportunities and brings down tech cost for knowing more civs with knowledge of tech we are researching. In addition, the lack of shields required allows roading first to max research. (3 mp's needed to be slipped in to keep lux slider down).
My leaning is to curraghs

Tech
Writing - phil -> maths or MM?
Writing at max to bring down trading cost? or min to increase buying power (what's the tech cost in beakers for writing on large map deity?).
I suspect max research is best - I have always been disappointed at min research - however in this situation there are high research costs.
If going max science without colossus, we may be able to use extra beakers from forest ivory or lake where this doesn't slow growth.

Other food for thought
? buy AI workers - whilst this does cramp the research dollars for the following 20 turns, the long term benefits are huge, esp in terms of unit support costs - 5 or 6 free workers means we dont require any for support and can therefore have several more offensive units.

Trading
Hold buying writing until know multiple AI with writing or buy first up to get earlier head start on phil?

 

[WackenOpenAir]

You said you tested it and that we don't. Right?

Surely we will have this stuff in place long before math comes along.

BTW, do they use azerty keyboards in Holland?

Haha, i was at a friends place in belgium. I almost smashed his keyboard trough the window

 

[WackenOpenAir]

I have been thinking about researching at min, but i don't know yet if and when we should do this. If we have many contacts, trading should work out well.

For me, there is only one thing that really seems clear to me and that is that we should research goal should go straight to philosophy.

I just got home from a goa-trance party and i'm gonna sleep now.

 

[WackenOpenAir]

20 tiles instead of 21: Look at the screeny with the moved worker, it may very well be possible that an AI is on another landmass and still take one of our squares, so we may not need to worry being overran

Long term:
research to UN asap.
-Build science wonder city in capital
-Trade loads with the AI
-Try to have encourage the scientific AI's to take down others.
-Capture extra towns to increase our own research.

Mid term:
When we research philo, we should be able to trade for many ancient techs, including iron working and math. Options will be open to build swords if we have iron (better than CoZ here because we will then have an attack force much earlier) or SoZ if we do not have iron.

Short term:
I think it comes down a choise between 2 paths now.
1) We invest in building the collosus. Assuming we are gonna mine 3 tiles before we road, we lose 3 roads for about 20 turns for 60 total commerce. Maybe more if without going for the collosus, we would build more than 3 rods before mining. Assuming we settle on the ivory and have happiness for 2, we are gonna keep an average of 2 citizens happy for about 15 truns, costing us at least 30 commerce, probably more like 40 since the lux slider can't always be adjusted perfectly. So we spend at least 100 commerce and about 20 turns delay on contacts.
100 commerce by itself is nothing, but it can delay our philo research by 5 or so turn and it may be more than 100 if we properly focus on commerce.
If we go for col, we cannot spend any time building a curragh or MP and we should indeed consider joining in the worker (further increasing the commerce cost a bit)

2)We go for full focus on research and city growth, possibly we first irrigate and then remine the cows. We start building curraghs and MP. Then we add some disbandable that can be used to turn maybe a 25spt production into 1 swordsmen/curragh per turn.
This also has the advantage that our curraghs may have explored the map and can be disbanded by the time we want to start using our unit support for swords.

The details:
-Moving the settler or not: I think it's pretty much a short term issue and i think either excel or the test map should easilly tell us what's best.

-min or max research. Calculation or the test map could tell us how many turns we need to research it. IMO <35 = max, >42 = min.

-Golden age should probably be delayed until we have a proper use for the shields. Also maybe until we have the science wonders available to enhance the benefit.
In normal games, an early golden age will enhance your growth so that you will benefit for ages to come. In this case that is not so true. Therefore, it is best to delay it until Industrial age if possible.

 

[killercane]

what's the tech cost in beakers for writing on large map deity?

We are on a standard map, not large (very close quarters!). Its 320 beakers.

Hold buying writing until know multiple AI with writing or buy first up to get earlier head start on phil?

First chance we get. It might be best to have CA 2 open to look at trade options on every turn so we dont miss anything. We want to trade alphabet quick, and try to get as many 2 fers as possible. We DONT want HBR so we can research it ourselves last. My proposed plan is Writing-Philo-Currency-and then maybe Lit or build up gold @no research. Trade for math with writing or philo via Big Picture. Only trade Currency for Construction when it is available, and then get CoL, Poly, and the other techs out there other than HBR. Research HBR and then trade for the scientific techs via Big Picture, using Lit and as much gpt as we can afford. Trade all the scientific AI into the MA, and see if several get Mono or Engineering to lower the cost. We cant have huge unit costs at this time, so we need to be in either golden age or have reduced that by conquering some towns. Golden age will be hard to avoid if we use dromons as seafaring catapults. I dont think it matters exactly WHEN we enter MA, but it does matter if we get a useful freebie, as that will save numerous turns.

I think we need to keep the city under size 7 until all tiles are improved and then add in the extra workers/disband them. We support 3 extra workers this way.

Moving the settler or not: I think it's pretty much a short term issue and i think either excel or the test map should easilly tell us what's best.

Well we get more early production by moving, and gain the ivory commerce in the long term as well as hopefully a BG under the second jungle. We lose out on keeping the city happy from ivory for 20 something turns.

 

[Paul#42]

Sorry, I had trouble to catch up

I vote for moving the settler SE.

Playing some time with excel did not convince me of building a granary at all - we get +7fpt when working all three cows mined - that's 3 turns to grow - I do not see us at 1 turn growing even with a granary. Although it would be nice to use those forests and still have +5fpt for 2-turn-growing @sizes 5 & 6

I'm still torn about that.

Growing beyond size 6 will kill our research - unless we announce scientists in our capital

Research: I'd favor the sequence:
Writing - Philosophie - Mathmatics - Currency (or Literature).
The HBR-trick looks interesting - what would you (KC) offer those AI for their free tech? We can't risk our trading rep by breaking gpt-trades. We need to show that we can also be nice guys this game

When we approach the middle ages we still should have several contact monopolies so we should be able to get all MA-first-tier-techs by trading for our tech even if other AI get the same. Okay I see - we get trouble if there is a tech nobody gets

On the Batting order
As he (bold as he is) already made a move I'd suggest Wacken to be our lead-off, if Abegweit (who usually does that job) has no objection. Of course we could also let someone else start if he replays the same move.
IIRC Mark usually is not keen on being up early.
So I'd suggest the following order:

1. Wacken
2. Abegweit
3. Killercane
4. Paul
5. Mark

Like the other teams we should start with 20 turns and go on with 10-turn-sets. Of course we stop at key situations.
Any objections?

 

[markh]

I wouldn't mind starting. I did this before, but your roster looks fine. You all are far more experienced at this level than I am, so most likely it is better putting me last.

Regarding Colossus or early exploring I am quite torn. Cannot really decide. In a single player game I think I would go for the colossus.

SOZ seems to be obvious. I like those ACs.

If we are first to philosophy we may still decide which tech to take. For me it is a little too early to decide.

 

[Abegweit]

Moving SE seems obvious. Best in both the short and long term with only a small downside. As for which tech to take on Philo, it is simply whichever one is the best trading opportunity. That can't be decided until we get there.

Roster order is fine, although I'd suggest Killer first if we decide to go for the Colossus. That, really, is the only question to be resolved before we start. Like everyone else I'm torn on the issue.

 

[killercane]

I think we are starting to shape the plan up. We still need to get consensus on what to build first and whether to join worker if we go for Colossus.

First Research
Andron- Writing
Paul- Writing
Me- Writing
Mark- Undecided
Wacken- Writing, I think
Abegweit- Writing I think

Settler Move
Andron- 1 SE
Paul- 1 SE
Me- 1 SE
Mark- 1 SE
Abegweit- 1 SE
Wacken- Undecided

Colossus or Not?
Andron- leaning to Curraghs, no Colossus
Paul- Undecided
Me- Curragh, then the Colossus. Barring that, Colossus. Depends on whether we have bonus grass on the eastern cow.
Mark- Undecided
Abegweit- Seriously thinking about Colossus I think
Wacken- Undecided

The HBR-trick looks interesting - what would you (KC) offer those AI for their free tech? We can't risk our trading rep by breaking gpt-trades. We need to show that we can also be nice guys this game

Lit and as much gpt and lump sum as we can get. We just need to get that first free tech. I dont know if the AI will research the govt techs, surely they value them less. We just need several AI to get Mono or Engineering to make it cheap enough to buy, and then trade with the others. I give this a 1/3 chance of working if we dont get Colossus, better if we do since we will have more $$.

We might just need to move the settler and then decide on what to build. We can then calculate based on bonus grass cow or not.

 

[Paul#42]

Settler Move
Andron- 1 SE
Paul- 1 SE
Me- 1 SE
Mark- 1 SE
Wacken- Undecided

You forgot Abegweit - or mixed him up with Andro
Abegweit also favors SE.

 

[Paul#42]

We might just need to move the settler and then decide on what to build. We can then calculate based on bonus grass cow or not.

Agreed. We seem to have a close-to-consenus on settling SE.
Wacken, would you play the first 1.5 turns (move settler SE, end turn, found "Whatever-we-name-it"), check the cow and post some screenies?

 

[killercane]

Changed. Sorry Abegweit. I knew I was neglecting something.

 

[WackenOpenAir]

First Research
Good, writing i think we agree on.

Settler Move
SE is ok with me.

Colossus or Not?
I am really undecided.
We have a few turns before we must decide.
I still have a few things that i think should be checked before i can decide what i want here. I just discused it with KC, he is gonna play turn1 and test some things. My mouse is dead so i can't play now. (i buy a new one tomorrow)

 

[killercane]

Well after 58 posts and 5 days, we have played one turn!

The cow is not on BG. We seem to be on an island. The worker is not moved and the save is uploaded. Curragh first may not be feasible now. It might be Colossus or bust. I will need to calculate how fast we can build it. Writing needs to be set to max or min by the next player and we need to decide what the worker will do.

http://gotm.civfanatics.net/saves/sgotm12/Spooks_SG012_BC3950_01.SAV

 

[Abegweit]

Looks like we were right about the layout to the south east.

Edit: I see we are trailing badly on the score graph but have a great territory curve!

 

[killercane]

I am unable to figure out a way to build Colossus before 2750 BC due to there only being one BG cow. That is quite late, and makes our chances even more remote to nail it.