I took a quick look at it, will have a more in depth look later.
we have 10 turns until writing, this may become 9 turns. Then we will have to decide if we are going for Philosophy, Literature or MM. Philo could get a free tech. Literature allows us libraries, both may be tradable for MM. MM is what its actually about.
If the AI researches fast, we wont win for philo, but they may have MM ready for trade by the time we get philo or Literature. Literature would be our best research here. If they are not so fast, we may have a chance to get philo first and the AI may not even have MM for trade when we research philo or literature. In this case philo is better because it will bring in MM faster than we can trade it from the AI. It would really suck though if we fail to win the race for philo (extremely likely imo) and the AI's we meet do not have MM for trade.
Anyone feels like analysing AI research speed ? (maybe make a test map)
Either way, we will need at least 30 or so turns to get away from this island. In an ideal world, the turn we discover Map Making, we would have a prebuild for a harbor, we would upgrade a curragh or 2, and we would have settlers ready to board.
Building a settler takes 40 food, and thus costs 60 science at least (20 scientist turns, a little more because it will force us to deviate from the 4-4-2 plan) Building a settler before we have MM causes a 3 turn delay. However, the main reason we are in a hurry to get MM is to get those settlers across, so it may very well be worth it to go for some settlers during the next 30 turns.
The lighthouse certainly is nice, but we have very little production, and we also want settlers, so i don't really know if this is gonna be an option.