I had thought that we would mine the plains to have more options to gain shields...
My thought was to get the commerce up ASAP, which I think was right at that point. Maybe not. You suggest building a worker later. He can mine the plains.
one out of five... We cannot call us extremely lucky this game...
Well, the odds of getting across the gap are one in four, so it wasn't horrible. Of course all three of KC's died too.
While Kyoto needs to grow, Tokyo should work two coasts so Kyoto gets another 2-food-tile.
That works. Wish I'd thought of it.
war academy on sinking probabilities I derived that it makes no difference whether our ship ends on sea or ocean tile (it sinks anyway
).
Thus we should try to avoid sea tiles because we are quicker on ocean tiles.
We should avoid ocean tiles altogether. The odds on venturing that far from home are simply horrible, at best one in eight. Despite that, we might consider sending the curragh currently in Osaka due east. The new lands we have discovered don't appear to be very large, a guess which Klarius' growth curve seems to confirm. In that case the curragh can (try to) explore in other directions.
This brings up the $64000 question. How do we get off this rock? We should really have considered this before KC's turns but better late than never. I can only see two options: suicide galleys and the Great Lighthouse.
1) Galleys. Assume that we ship-chain. A galley has a 50-50 chance of making it across the gap. It then has another 50% chance of making it to the rendezvous point and back. So to be safe, we would probably need at least two on the other side, which means that about four would have to be produced. Plus a fifth to carry the settler away from our shores. This scenario has to be repeated every time we try to get anything out of this place. On average, we lose four galleys for each load we transport.
2) The Great Light. Osaka produces five shields in its current configuration and can hit nine with a temple and mined plains. That's 34-60 turns. The Lighthouse also provides us with many other advantages. To start with, it bring back the lux we see to Japan. It clearly helps with further exploration (in fact, it makes it possible). I think that we should definitely build it.
The next question is the research order. Masonry for a pre-build? Cost: 10 turns. Philo for a free tech. It's much cheaper than Map-making (just 15 turns).
I really doubt that we are going to meet anyone but we'll see... Assuming no trading opportunities, my vote is goes to Writing-Pottery-Philo-Maps with Osaka timing a granary pre-build to arrive with map-making.
The next question is what to build now. I don't see much point in continuing with the curraghs. Stocking up settlers and workers for the future is probably more useful. OTOH, this will cut into our research rate as the cities grow and shrink. The only other thing I can see is a temple for Osaka and wealth.
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I just can’t do it so I am starting to play. I think you've actually managed to inspire me to re-gain my enthusiasm for this game. 
