SGOTM 14 - Ivan

[I. Larkin]

If you retake Zimbabwe (yes, our rep is already busted: I've retaken Bapedi, Ivan Zimbabwe and he also re-attacked Celtia, all within a 20-turn peace deal... So only those civs that neither know Japan, Zululand nor Celtia still like us...), then I'd say you re-settle it. Two flips is enough, isn't it?!

In this case just Raze it.

(Ivan, when exactly did they start?) So here is an idea for that southern stack, once it is done with Korea: capture Leonardo's, when it's finished!

IBT 310 and 320 AD

One advantage of having multiple smaller AI prisons as opposed to one or two larger ones, is that it may be easier to prevent them from killing each other?! If many AIs have direct contact, it's more likely that some of them start a war. But having a larger prison will probably require less tiles?! We should think about this a bit more.

We should have a base or pay for RoP at islands. Delhi, say will plip for sure.

I agree that forming a size-1 Army (with the Alfonso Knight) should be the best usage for the MGL. Here is an idea, what it could do: send the Army plus two additional Kts to Germany and let them do some scouting. Once they have confirmed, that it's one single landmass, join the other two Kts, enter Mongolia and pillage the iron. (If Germany DoWs via MA, we can pillage their iron as well.) Also, if there really is some fighting going on between G&G and M, then we may be lucky and capture a weakly defended town somewhere... (But don't risk the Army prematurely: the AI does attack wounded Armies!)

Even with RoP they will attack. So it is not an idea. Let 1kt army fight together. Next MGL will do HE, I think but next may be relocate FP to Paris?

 

[Othniel]

May be OK, but we 1)have WH from America, 2)No use, but some corruption harm from American Cities, 3) It is far from Center.
I prefer Rome, in fact it is Closer, then America by sea.

That pretty much persuaded me to not attack America next. But, why do you say Rome is closer by sea than America? It seems that America is clearly closer, at least for any reinforcements.

But the main thing is, I'm just opposed to too much warring in the south right now. It's too far from our core. I think we need to take the northern hemisphere and then attack the south. Yes, this is a plan that will take many turns to complete, but it gives a clear picture of our strategy in this hectic archipelago world.

So perhaps modifiy things like Lanzelot said: bypass America now and go after the GMG bloc sooner.

No, I definitely do not think 22 galleys will be enough. We need more, which is why I'd put a lot of the corrupt towns on galley duty.

Concerning Warrior builds. I think maybe a few for flip suppression, but mostly I would put those 1spt towns on galleys or settlers. Sell the raxes and any other useless buildings. They won't make units fast enough to efficiently build an MDI force, and the warriors eat up unit support. We are almost at max support right now (135 out of 136 iirc). Sure, we'll capture some more towns soon, but we also have flips and new knight builds.

I agree, raze Zimbabwe!!

I don't have time right now to reply to everything else. I'll give this some more time for me to think over, plus hopefully some other guys will chip in with some opinions.

Main thing that seems to need some consensus:
What's our jail going to look like? Good arguments to spread it around and good arguments to consolidate it. Hard to say which is better.

 

[I. Larkin]

That pretty much persuaded me to not attack America next. But, why do you say Rome is closer by sea than America? It seems that America is clearly closer, at least for any reinforcements.

Now our fleet make Yaroslavl’ – C+ route. Lagos - Boston also OK, but America will not “run away” as well as Rome.

So perhaps modifiy things like Lanzelot said: bypass America now and go after the GMG bloc sooner.

After reading your “big post” I get convinced that Greece is the best target. They have Fur, Spices and close to Celtia. We may finish Celtia in 3-4 turns, so send fleet around Celtia to Grece, ship chain will help to unload near Athens soon. Better to do it before RoP expire not to pay too much for renewal.
Western front is harder, so may be when 2 stacks will meet and attack Mongols. Grrece may go to India, even to Deli.

But the main thing is, I'm just opposed to too much warring in the south right now. It's too far from our core. I think we need to take the northern hemisphere and then attack the south. Yes, this is a plan that will take many turns to complete, but it gives a clear picture of our strategy in this hectic archipelago world.

Method Bolcano assume divide world on half. Cut along meridian geometrically right idea. But will see how things in Korea will go. My impression was that it is easiest target.

No, I definitely do not think 22 galleys will be enough. We need more, which is why I'd put a lot of the corrupt towns on galley duty.

Concerning Warrior builds. I think maybe a few for flip suppression, but mostly I would put those 1spt towns on galleys or settlers. Sell the raxes and any other useless buildings. They won't make units fast enough to efficiently build an MDI force, and the warriors eat up unit support. We are almost at max support right now (135 out of 136 iirc). Sure, we'll capture some more towns soon, but we also have flips and new knight builds.

OK, but really we need Warriors to replace Knights from Guard business. It will effectively reduce sail time if we will have enough warriors at France and Japan. So let Orlean and Japanise Cities to continue. But OK, Babedy, say better to build workers (barracks to sell). In general, I did not meant to build what is on the save. I just press enter and governor not always right.

I agree, raze Zimbabwe!!

But take your time! Zulu pay 9 gpt and we loose RoP. Also the risk to loose 2-3 Knights not worse for our “moral satisfaction”. Really, it will be better to resettle Zulu far away, together with there island. To South Korea, say. Or if Babedy flips, raze both. Or if Mpondo will flip, raze Zimbabwe and demand Mpondo. (Reduce it now to size 1 somehow). And, finally, we simply have no knights and Trebuchets nearby. So … What I think will be good to have Ship chain Korea - Mpondo just in case…

Main thing that seems to need some consensus:
What's our jail going to look like? Good arguments to spread it around and good arguments to consolidate it. Hard to say which is better.

Now we obviously need “scatter” jail for tactical reason. Will we have time to re-settel them next will see later.

OK, check list for preturn:
1. make Army with MGL.
2. Set Governor in Tiwanuku. (Many troops will suppress resistors).
3. Use 80 g somehow (mini rush Knight at Lisbon) or Walls in C+. I prefer first.
4. McM: Evora – Braga area.
5. Wake Crusader and press space bar. (prophylactics).
Check list for first turn
1. Remove Knights and Gift Alesia to Korea
2. Send Galleys to Greece.
3. Upgrade horses and disconnect Iron. Start 6 slave to road.
4. Check Pickmens to Horse…

few pictures... Doc file with ai data and enlarged power graph.

To all : may be you notice that I put Knights.doc file with "article". It is very row stuff, but I want to improve with some illustrations.
Can Ignas and Lancelot (and next players) provide me information how many "Knights" (other units ar 0.5, say) they have lost in total and how many City they have captured. Just 2 figures.
It will also helt to see projection victory time better.
Thanks in advance, Ivan.

 

[eldar]

Overseas, I see no reason not to continue with the pincer idea on the GMG "continent". Both armies will be in position to hit them at about the same time.

However I would use the Celtic group to hit America first, before heading to Greece. America have an extra luxury (Gems), and it's easy to reinforce.

What I'm more concerned with is how little apparent control we have over our own island.

1. We've not really decided what to do with Ottomans, Arabia. Personally I think Arabia are fine where they are, unless we find ourselves in a position to relocate them later on (I'd like to, but whilst we're still at war with them, it's not an option right now!). Ottomans with 2 cities, I would deal with. Take out and keep Bursa, and pin them in Aydin.

2. Why did we even bother trying to keep Zimbabwe after the first flip? Now we're in a spot of bother over what really should have been an automatic decision to raze it.

3. There are plenty of open spots still available on our island, but only 1 settler being built and only 1 available, and it's hanging around on an unroaded tile just north of Damascus? I'd look at changing some builds to settlers because there's 90 tiles that we could grab without committing a single unit to combat, and we're doing nothing about it. Settlers are more cost-effective than Knights in grabbing land!

 

[DWetzel]

The 90 tiles on our island are of no consequence.

Well, not NO consequence... but I guarantee you that we will be able to claim those tiles well before we have to worry about approaching the domination limit.

 

[Othniel]

Ok, a clearer picture is emerging here. Seems a general consensus is happening for our war direction.

I'm with eldar on thinking our home continent is a little rough, I'll do what I can on that front without sacrificing our overseas goals.

I'm planning to start playing tomorrow. I may take a day or two to finish, who knows, but I play slow and I plan on being very careful with this set. I'll check back here before playing to make sure I don't miss any additions.

 

[I. Larkin]

Overseas, I see no reason not to continue with the pincer idea on the GMG "continent". Both armies will be in position to hit them at about the same time.

Not really. Celt war may be over in 2-4 turns (tey lost a lot at first war), but Inka may take 8-10. Then 6-8 turns Iroquese. So we will mainly rely on West Army.

However I would use the Celtic group to hit America first, before heading to Greece. America have an extra luxury (Gems), and it's easy to reinforce.

WH is more important then 1 Lux. Also American Cities will finally kill our FP core. Another problem iz "relocation". Shall we make Peace first? Or, may be start war, extort City via peace deal and then "finish"?

What I'm more concerned with is how little apparent control we have over our own island.

.
We, in general, produce more Horses then can upgrade. I think they will paly a role of Home guards waiting for money to upgrade.

1. We've not really decided what to do with Ottomans, Arabia. Personally I think Arabia are fine where they are, unless we find ourselves in a position to relocate them later on (I'd like to, but whilst we're still at war with them, it's not an option right now!). Ottomans with 2 cities, I would deal with. Take out and keep Bursa, and pin them in Aydin.

My plan was to relocated them to South Korea. With our culture we can't keep Busra with Aldin near. But we can take Busra and gift to Rome, say.
Domascus is opposite, it is "best location IBT Palace and FP. This peace of land should be ours.

2. Why did we even bother trying to keep Zimbabwe after the first flip? Now we're in a spot of bother over what really should have been an automatic decision to raze it.

It was my mistake. Automatically press... 3 Knights loss was upseting.

3. There are plenty of open spots still available on our island, but only 1 settler being built and only 1 available, and it's hanging around on an unroaded tile just north of Damascus? I'd look at changing some builds to settlers because there's 90 tiles that we could grab without committing a single unit to combat, and we're doing nothing about it. Settlers are more cost-effective than Knights in grabbing land!

This is technical Settler that probably will make Arabs to talk. Also it is last "low corruption spot." Actually we have TOO MANY cities, nobody coment about my calculation of corruption at post #495. First we have to focus on production and delete Babedy and Viseu and Cities on Celt's Island.
Yes, we can grab land without combat, but Price is TOO high.

The 90 tiles on our island are of no consequence.
Well, not NO consequence... but I guarantee you that we will be able to claim those tiles well before we have to worry about approaching the domination limit.

I can't resolve trilema: to bulid Stlers in Core and lose productivity for few turns, Build Settler and join Worker, to have 1 turn only loss, or Cash rush in Corrupted cities. I did second choise, because we always have not enough cash.

 

[DWetzel]

We can take care of those 90 tiles at the point in which our military sailing for their final conquests. That way, any military we would otherwise be building would be too late to be useful anyway.

 

[eldar]

That makes sense whilst we are still ahead on score, and therefore ahead on the tie-breaker. However Klarius's territory graph is steeper than ours - which will translate to a score boost over the next few turn sets - and Spooks also look like going postal in the next couple of turn sets. Elite I'm not so sure of.

We may need to take care of those 90 tiles sooner rather than later on order to keep up with the tie breaker.

[Edit] Looking at Klarius's culture graph strongly suggests that they got ToA built on the starting landmass, which accounts for their sudden sharp territory increase last set.

 

[DWetzel]

I did notice that. Which is why I'm not that concerned about the score tiebreaker--I'm guessing we're hosed on that account. I'd be worried about it only as it concerns us not finishing any later.

 

[I. Larkin]

We can take care of those 90 tiles at the point in which our military sailing for their final conquests. That way, any military we would otherwise be building would be too late to be useful anyway.

In fact we may start a bit earlier. Transition from Regime A to regim B may be smoth. And I am try to work out "when and how". But now Knight production is a key issue.
So what consensus about how to delete wrong Cities?
Another topic: Persia is not schield reach; so, probably, it will lose SunTzu and Parsagrad will swich to Leo. Anybody remember how and when SunTzu race started? Better to be ready for that.

 

[Othniel]

Ivan, my computer is having trouble opening your attachment on the city corruption levels (not a problem with your list, just a problem with my computer). I'll comment on city deletions tomorrow when I can access my other PC.

 

[I. Larkin]

I put new version of article where (it seams to me) I got some usefull result.
Still did not finish chapter 3, (about investments), but hell, time, you know. Basic result is "what the acceptble loss rate for given capture rate" and what is fastest "last City capture time" possible at this conditions. Lokks that nowdays optimal is not fisible, but will possible soon. Because of that Best time (aprox 60 turns) is not that fast.

In more user friendly way equation (7) can be re written as:

(8).
Where Lpt is simply number of Knights player loose in one turn “in average” and Cipt is amount of Cities captured in one turn in average. C_AI is the amount of AI’s Cities that necessary to capture to win the game.
It is obvious that at regime (8) tactics should be similar to AWD. Normally second term is largest and time determined by ratio of loss to win. It will be shorter if more Knights participate in attack but not that much. However if f drops below 5% like now, it may be visible. “Optimal loss rate” at this approximation is equal to

It is assumemed that loss/per City is some "un known" constant, but in our hand to reduce losses and capture less Cities, say, to have more Knights later. Or, wise a versa.
Also, to work out game strategy it is important to get this constant somehow say, "from experiment".
It is very small value, for our current situation K0=60 , C_AI= 90 we may afford 1 Knight per turn loss. However when S increases we may let us to loose 2 Knights per turn… In reality it is hard to maintain this level; even with Knights vs spears, therefore our time will be larger then tBEST .

To maintain this rate, just try not to make risky operations and have some units “free” to cover IBT. This tactics assumes that pat of Knights will be “frozen” waiting shipping or concentration at position to strike and, therefore, f will be lower, that not good… Well this is art beyond mathematics to guess proper balance.

 

[Othniel]

Time was shorter last night then I had anticipated. I ended up just playing the preturn, mainly doing lots of microing and evaluating our strategy.

After re-reading Ivan's turnlog, I realized that all the towns with a high risk for flipping were not captured last turn, meaning they might flip on the interturn. With that in mind, where possible I will try and move out troops from the towns before pressing enter. A bunch of the troops have used up their movement for the next turn, though.

I took a good look at your city corrupt chart, Ivan. It reinforced what I had observed from the save. Basically, I would go ahead with the plan to gift Alesia and Camulodunum, but not worry about "deleting" any more cities than that. From Viseu onward, each city has 70+% corruption pre-courthouse. IMO, that means it's not worth the effort to build courts. It would take too long without a rush and the town would subsequently be only marginally productive. Plus, once we grab the Arab's city near our FP, we'll have 2 more cities in that area and raise the rank corrupt on these other marginally corrupt cities.

So I just say stick with the core we have and make the best of it. I did switch over builds to a couple of courts in the "FP core area". I'll work on getting every tile improved and the cities to max size. Besides that, we are pretty much at the limit of what we can do. I think we can also safely settle in the "forbidden zone" near Rostov without upsetting the core. That will garner us more tiles.

One thing that does jump out at me is that it would be really nice to have a ton more workers. We have lots of unimproved tiles, we have cities that could use some worker joins to get to max size, and we could even do forestry ops if our workforce was big enough. I'll be setting a bunch of corrupt towns on the main landmass to build workers, but I don't think we can do much about this problem at this point in the game. We'd have to dedicate core towns to being worker factories if we really wanted to change it.

Because we have chosen to capture cities rather than raze, we are desperately short on slaves compared to our landmass size. I wonder if we might have been better off razing more and just getting a good settler pump or two setup...perhaps this might be dwelling too much on past decisions, but also it may not be too late to change certain portions of our strategy...

 

[I. Larkin]

From Viseu onward, each city has 70+% corruption pre-courthouse. IMO, that means it's not worth

If we keep Novgorod (for geopolitics reasons) we may build CH there. From table we see, that the best ever benefit come from there. We may cosider 1-2 more, depending on time/situation.
I sort of "insist" to get rid of Viseu and Babedy, it defenetly "screens" CBranco and Mecca. Which way I don't know, (workers, settlers or simply Abonded) but it has to be done.
At present stage, when production of Knights is highst priority I'd joined as much as possible workers to low corrupt Cities after they will build Aqueducts.
If we decided to keep Moscow alive, may be better to use Moscow Iron to connect/disconnect and mine Iron near Rio?

Because we have chosen to capture cities rather than raze, we are desperately short on slaves compared to our landmass size. I wonder if we might have been better off razing more and just getting a good settler pump or two setup...perhaps this might be dwelling too much on past decisions, but also it may not be too late to change certain portions of our strategy...

There was no solid decision about that, really it is a good idea to Raze Capitals...

I realized that all the towns with a high risk for flipping were not captured last turn, meaning they might flip on the interturn. With that in mind, where possible I will try and move out troops from the towns before pressing enter. A bunch of the troops have used up their movement for the next turn, though.

Please, take into account 2 things:
1) Some Cities, like Alesia and C+ need defenders. They are in "war zone and Celts may reach them. Hope you understand this.
2) Some Cities like Kyoto and Orlean are so important for us to keep that I do WLKD and have some troops to minimize flip risk by all means. Have no clear idea about India's Cities. May be you right there.

 

[Othniel]

I played 2 more turns last night. Took me like 5 hours. Already this turnset has been a doozy. Unfortunately, I left my flash drive with the newest save and my log at home. I won't be able to post it for a few hours.

But....let me summarize what has transpired so far.

Celtic Lands:
We are firmly in control of their island. They still own Entremont, but all of their field units have been killed. Their counterattack on the first interturn was a bit more severe than I anticipated, and I had lowered the garrison of Camul to lessen the risk of losing units to a flip. But our defense held and on the following turn the rest of the Celt army was cleaned up. IIRC, 4 units were lost on defense, and a couple more on attacks, but overall win % has been pretty good. We'll take the rest of the island in 2 turns and our galleys are in position to take us to Greece.

Korea:
Gifted Alesia, then attacked and captured Nampo. Killed about 8 Korean units to date. So far haven't lost any units there, but they are just moving up their stacks to face us. Unfortunately, they have pikes plus swords, and our invasion stack has no pikes, so progress will probably be a bit slow.

Incaland:
This has been the tough one. Weirdly so because they lack Iron. I'm not sure I've played this area the best, so I'll describe the dilemma. Maybe people have ideas.

The trouble has been the flip risk of Tiwa, the only town we own on their island. It's a 10-20% flip risk, which is really, really high. When I inherited the set, a large % of our force there was wounded. That's fine, no blame on Ivan, but it means they have to heal to be effective. But I am very, very hesitant to park 8 knights in a highly flippable town waiting for them to heal. So I took most of the units out of the town and parked them adjacently, waiting for them to heal.

The rub of the matter was this: the Inca moved in very large numbers of archers/spears/chasquis adjacent to Tiwa. In order to defend Tiwa, I had to keep units inside, but suffer flip risk. And, if Tiwa is captured, the units outside can't heal as they are suddenly in enemy territory.

So, I picked the third option, attack as much as possible with our 4 attack units vs their 2 and 1 def units. I was able to kill most of the (initial) covering spears, but didn't have enough units to really touch the chasquis and archers. I ended up with 4 hurt knights defending Tiwa, with the rest of our hurt knights sitting outside covered by one healthy knight. Not the best of scenarios, but hoping our knights could hold out.

Moreover, our new army was killed on a Chasqui! I had only put one unit inside for transportability. I debated filling the army further once the big Inca stack appeared, but decided to risk leaving it unfilled. I attacked a Chasqui with it to hopefully help defend Tiwa–the attack was good odds–but we got a crappy rng roll and lost the army. So, very sorry guys on that. I thought I made a high odds choice and it didn't pan out. The army had killed a Chasqui the turn before, so we can build the Epic...

Anyhow, we ended up getting more bad rng and lost Tiwa on the interturn. Chaquis were killing knights Buuut, I had three more knights and pike ready to be shipchained in. So on this most recent turn, I captured Tiwa again with our hurt stack of knights (only 1 reg spear inside) and shipchained in units. We know have a pike plus 3 healthy knights with moves inside, plus about 10 hurts units outside. The Inca have about 9 archers and 8 spears in a big stack adjacent. I'm quite sure that is the bulk of the Incan army--kill it and they will be gassed. So, the choice is now, how to distribute our defenders for the next interturn...

Ok, that's my longwinded summary of 2 turns of action. I think the overall kill count is about 59 kills to 11 losses. Not as well as I'd hoped, but not terrible.

I've had 17 elite wins, too, in case anyone cares to keep track.

We also have a bunch of newly built horses--about 7--moving east to be upgraded and shipped. We'll have major reinforcements in Incaland in about 3 turns.

 

[Othniel]

If we keep Novgorod (for geopolitics reasons) we may build CH there. From table we see, that the best ever benefit come from there. We may cosider 1-2 more, depending on time/situation.
I sort of "insist" to get rid of Viseu and Babedy, it defenetly "screens" CBranco and Mecca. Which way I don't know, (workers, settlers or simply Abonded) but it has to be done.

I wouldn't build a court in Novgorod, and I wouldn't try and make Mecca or CBranco productive. All three have really high rank corruption. They will take forever to build courts and will never pay back the money if we rush the courts.

 

[eldar]

CBranco was only put there to help out with the French invasion. We can probably delete it, if it helps ease the pressure on our core?

 

[I. Larkin]

CBranco was only put there to help out with the French invasion. We can probably delete it, if it helps ease the pressure on our core?

No, it will not. To help FP core we need to delete Low (Small) rank low productive City. It is Novgorod, Babedy, Vipesi. It is few more, but they have higher rank.

 

[I. Larkin]

I wouldn't build a court in Novgorod, and I wouldn't try and make Mecca or CBranco productive. All three have really high rank corruption. They will take forever to build courts and will never pay back the money if we rush the courts.

Will we take mone back or not it is another story. Depend how long we will play. But CH in Nivgord will give 60% corruption + WLKD ->40 for schields. Not that bad.