SGOTM 15 - Kakumeika

[Manco Capac]

@bcool
BTW, copper is an accepted metal for maces, goes well along the idea to upgrade the axes.
Since BTS, iron is not the only metal that allows maces; they finally catch it being stuck with longbows sucks.

 

[bcool]

If war is declared T131 we won't have access to metal from the homeland. Are you suggesting we will be able to build a road and improve the copper near EastPort by T130?

If so great we can upgrade axes to maces, but I didn't think we have the worker turns to do that.

If we have the artist those workers would be desperately chopping those forests I would think.

 

[mabraham]

@bcool
BTW, copper is an accepted metal for maces, goes well along the idea to upgrade the axes.
Since BTS, iron is not the metal that allows maces; they finally catch it stuck with longbows sucks.

With just monument and Hinduism and founding T127(?), we get the border pop T132 and the mine up T134 - if we have captured the forest tile when we've already been DOWed, which is hard to know about. Otherwise we will need a fort on the copper, which takes longer to build. Artists will help with that, of course.

 

[Manco Capac]

I just read post of your #2416 (marbraham)

Thanks for the redirection; I think ~page 126 was the last page in the past I've read in the blitz to catch up.

Okay, I believe the AI team does not hold any Toku.
The idea of wounded caravel is no more useful then.

 

[Manco Capac]

With just monument and Hinduism and founding T127(?), we get the border pop T132 and the mine up T134 - if we have captured the forest tile when we've already been DOWed, which is hard to know about. Otherwise we will need a fort on the copper, which takes longer to build. Artists will help with that, of course.

No, the fort has no use. Yes defense, but no output for productions. And we need to defend the main city too.

Regarding the control of forests, it took originally 13 turns with a sole monument. I'll test the influence of right away religion.

Good news. It takes 7 turns (2 (initial), 8,12,15,17,37,47,54) to control the two forests. Thus copper access on T133. If the SoD could be just slow, then maces shouldn't be a problem. T134, the FW have finished both road and copper improvement and they can find safety within city.

 

[mabraham]

No, the fort has no use. Yes defense, but no output for productions. And we need to defend the main city too.

We don't need to work the copper tile to keep the city alive. We may need copper access for mace upgrades to keep the city alive against a million war chariots. The correct improvement to choose will depend on the situation at the time. An early DOW with no stack yet at EastPort and no road route to the copper will suggest a fort build. We still need a road on the copper tile, as well as the fort to get copper access via the coast.

Regarding the control of forests, it took originally 13 turns with a sole monument. I'll test the influence of right away religion.

Great

 

[bcool]

No, the fort has no use. Yes defense, but no output for productions. And we need to defend the main city too.

Regarding the control of forests, it took originally 13 turns with a sole monument. I'll test the influence of right away religion.

Good news. It takes 7 turns (2 (initial), 8,12,15,17,37,47,54) to control the two forests. Thus copper access on T133. If the SoD could be just slow, then maces shouldn't be a problem. T134, the FW have finished both road and copper improvement and they can find safety within city.

We can improve this time if we run an artist. I want to switch to slavery this turn so that we can switch to caste system and run an artist on T128.

the advantage of building a fort is that you can build a fort on a tile outside your culture. So the workers can build a fort before borders pop.
Of course if we run an artist the borders will pop very fast.

As mabraham suggested it will depend on many unknown factors what is best.

 

[Manco Capac]

^I just tested the artist situation by putting an academy; indeed, on T128 (two turns after founding EastPort), it takes 2 turns to get the forests! (2,6,9,39,51). That is T130!

As mabraham suggested it will depend on many unknown factors what is best.

The whys of a dynamic PPP and to try to follow their SoD (or predict their moves in the following turns thanks to the GG).

 

[Manco Capac]

If anyone wants to know:
Indeed a fort next to coast won't need any road because behaving like a city.

Two FW's will take 5 turns for a fort only. But can be done way way earlier than border pop!
Two FW's will take 4 turns for two roads and copper.

After all fort ain't bad!

An early DOW with no stack yet at EastPort and no road route to the copper will suggest a fort build. We still need a road on the copper tile, as well as the fort to get copper access via the coast.
Great

the advantage of building a fort is that you can build a fort on a tile outside your culture. So the workers can build a fort before borders pop.

But there is a problem as far as I remember, the roading for our teleported SoD takes so much turns the FW will arrive to the city IIRC at the same time as the SoD, that is T130. Hmmm.
I need to continue to make testing for SoD teleportation; perhaps there's a better place which won't need that much roading network.

 

[mabraham]

If anyone wants to know:
Indeed a fort next to coast won't need any road because behaving like a city.

Hmm, my memory must be wrong. OK.

Two FW's will take 5 turns for a fort only. But can be done way way earlier than border pop!
Two FW's will take 4 turns for two roads and copper.

After all fort ain't bad!

Sure, it might be right. We'll have to see.

 

[Manco Capac]

Wait 5 minutes; I'm testing Kaitzilla plans. Seems better than expected. What about T129 teleportation...

The only deviation I didn't respect city order...I wonder if it will affect much at this distance.
Of course, I didn't forget to unfog; necessary condition!

EDIT: Wait I forgot to OB with red Toku...

Last change given the teleportation happens T129: control of forest won't happen. Let's see now.
Originally T130 we control forests.

 

[Manco Capac]

Given at T129, Eastport won't get the forest tiles, in test game repace FGH (forest green hill) by copper location. Unfortunately unless we manage to road to eastport before, T129 teleportation is less efficient for a new reason: once we step on gems tile, we still have one half move, which means enough on T130 to move our SoD in Eastport.

Then T130 is still for a new reason.

Here's the test in question.

DoW Hatshegawa to make same effet as closing OB.

I'm not sure I'll be able to make first goal today; I have to go and I'm tired anyway.

 

[Manco Capac]

Yeah, I thought it was a fear of a sudden OB jeopardizing mainland again. Hard to tell when PLEASED if they make contract at the first moment or wait a little. In my test about Hatshe DoWing reversely to Toku, it sometimes took time before enabling OB even being PLEASED to each other.

But I think testing about the passage from CAUTIOUS to PLEASED enables OB faster is necessary. Kaitzilla did not precise its personal conditions. I wouldn't be surprise it is another kind of bug.
But given 100% chance they still PLEASED to each other after closing border, then a cool down period shall take its effect. How many turns? I don't know. I think it is probabilistic...

Or perhaps share wars has a special perk to enable faster OB after closure, but I think it has more to do with the diplo modifier than the act of joining war.

I think in 15 mins, the 1-turn PPP should be ready. Indeed, I only need a consensus, no time to wait all the team. We need to go on.

May someone test this little theory; gotta go, this is getting too much of my RL.

 

[bcool]

Espionage requirements

Liztown distance 1.05 factor
Culture 0.5 factor
Religion 0.6 factor (Liz must remain in Buddhism)
Espionage spending assume 1.00 factor (we might have some small discount for this)
Tech stealing factor 1.5

Stealing techs from Liztown is 0.4725 with no stationary spy discounts and 0.23625 with 50% spy discount

Trojan Horse distance 1.12 factor
Culture 0.5 factor
Religion 0.6 factor (Liz must remain in Buddhism)
Espionage spending assume 1.00 factor (we might have some small discount for this)
Tech stealing factor 1.5

NO stationary bonus 0.504 , 50% stationary bonus is 0.252

Tech costs
Compass 624
Optics 936
Machinery 1092
CoL 546

Likely scenario for espionage costs
Steal machinery in LizTown
1092 *0.23625 = 258 (approx) formula must truncate so factor calculation is always a small amount off

Steal compass in Trojan Horse
624 * 0.252 = 157

Steal optics in Trojan Horse
936 * 0.252 = 236

Steal CoL in Trojan Horse
546 * 0.252 = 138

Steal CoL in Trojan Horse with only 10% discount
546 * 0.4536 = 248

Convert Liz to Hinduism with 50% stationary discount in LizTown
600*0.1575 = 95
with 10% stationary discount it would be 170

So if we get a great prophet we would need to steal machinery, compass and optics at the very least so we need a minimum of 651 on the turn we ceasefire with Liz to cover those steals.

If we want to prepare to steal up to optics and CoL we need 789 on the turn we ceasefire with Liz.

If we want to steal 3 techs then 2 turns later steal CoL and flip her to Hinduism with 10% stationary spies we would need
651 on ceasefire turn
Then we would an additional 418 2 turns later.

Might be tough to get all of this espionage and have enough gold for upgrades...

Might be tough to get the espionage even without storing gold for upgrades.

Other numbers

a civil service steal at 10% stationary bonus in Liztown would be 530

 

[mabraham]

Espionage requirements

Liztown distance 1.05 factor
Culture 0.5 factor
Religion 0.6 factor (Liz must remain in Buddhism)
Espionage spending assume 1.00 factor (we might have some small discount for this)
Tech stealing factor 1.5

Stealing techs from Liztown is 0.4725 with no stationary spy discounts and 0.23625 with 50% spy discount

Trojan Horse distance 1.12 factor
Culture 0.5 factor
Religion 0.6 factor (Liz must remain in Buddhism)
Espionage spending assume 1.00 factor (we might have some small discount for this)
Tech stealing factor 1.5

NO stationary bonus 0.504 , 50% stationary bonus is 0.252

Tech costs
Compass 624
Optics 936
Machinery 1092
CoL 546

Likely scenario for espionage costs
Steal machinery in LizTown
1092 *0.23625 = 258 (approx) formula must truncate so factor calculation is always a small amount off

Steal compass in Trojan Horse
624 * 0.252 = 157

Steal optics in Trojan Horse
936 * 0.252 = 236

Steal CoL in Trojan Horse
546 * 0.252 = 138

Steal CoL in Trojan Horse with only 10% discount
546 * 0.4536 = 248

Convert Liz to Hinduism with 50% stationary discount in LizTown
600*0.1575 = 95
with 10% stationary discount it would be 170

So if we get a great prophet we would need to steal machinery, compass and optics at the very least so we need a minimum of 651 on the turn we ceasefire with Liz to cover those steals.

If we want to prepare to steal up to optics and CoL we need 789 on the turn we ceasefire with Liz.

If we want to steal 3 techs then 2 turns later steal CoL and flip her to Hinduism with 10% stationary spies we would need
651 on ceasefire turn
Then we would an additional 418 2 turns later.

Might be tough to get all of this espionage and have enough gold for upgrades...

Might be tough to get the espionage even without storing gold for upgrades.

Other numbers

a civil service steal at 10% stationary bonus in Liztown would be 530

Thanks for the numbers. We can probably get into the ballpark for the amount of espionage, but we won't have much in the way of spare production for perhaps dealing with Liz buying longbows in the gift cities, or setting up an Akehaten task force, or doing much in the upgrade department. The best case steal chances are only 90%, and the stacked spies in TH will start at 67% or worse, if I recall correctly. So we should probably attempt the first mission(s) in TH with the least-fortified spies (if they are different, which I don't remember), so that the chance of being caught is highest when the mission cost would be highest if it was successful, so that we minimise our overall EP spending. With Delhi and SheepTown moving on to wealth builds shortly, we can probably run another 4 turns at 100% and then we will trust Tachy to manage getting a useful further amount of in the context of our great person flavour.

CoL is costing 140-250 to steal. We plan to run a Caste artist in EastPort to accelerate a border pop by 3 turns and probably accelerate some forest acquisition by 5+ turns, in order to pay to upgrade some maces (around 80 gold each?) in worst-case Hatse-DOW scenarios, and have EastPort survive long enough to build some boats - perhaps with some chops.

That's OK - EastPort building boats is addressing our VC requirements in a direct fashion. We want the artist to pop the borders for chops for the boat(s) and copper access (either for the tile hammers or for mace upgrades to keep the city alive), and some culture defence for if/when Hatse attacks. We could perhaps delay stealing CoL in order to pay less for it, but that costs us shared-war time with Hammu, and perhaps Toku might attack the gift cities, and perhaps we just want the EastPort boats ASAP. Chanelling our empire hammers into to CoL get culture out in EastPort to build a boat faster sounds like a good use of late-game production to address our VC.

 

[Kaitzilla]

I like Tachywaxon's improved plan to get Eastport settled a turn earlier .

Our stack of axes walking onto the forested hill 1S1W of corn T130 is just as good as being in the city. A war declaration T131 will teleport them into Eastport if that is still Hatsegawa's culture since it is so close to Eastport.

 

[mabraham]

May someone test this little theory; gotta go, this is getting too much of my RL.

It is legal for Hatse and Toku to re-open their borders because of their shared war with Liz. However the AI probably depends on their OB contact pressure to actually approach each other to consider OB. So they may or may not reopen them soon after we would close them. Shrug, it isn't worth worrying about. Get the gold and close their borders if it looks useful at any point.

 

[Manco Capac]

I just tested it; unbelievable how many little tricks the game hides from the casual player.

Kaitzilla was right; share war short-circuits the "Not now, we'll think about it in a few years!".

So, we have to expect OB again. How fast depends of Toku personality (refuses to talk) and random seed (this one I'm less sure)

 

[Kaitzilla]

Not really a big deal, but I think I figured out why my espionage estimates were a bit high from when we flipped Liz to Hinduism. From the screenshot:

Spoiler :

Simply hitting the Base Cost with all the multipliers indicates it should have cost 600*(0.6*0.5*1.04*0.8*0.94) = 140 However, the real cost was a tad lower, at 132 .

I now think the correct formula was more like 600*(0.6*0.5*0.8)+600*(1.04)-600*(0.94) = 132 . Basically, there is an order of operations where the distance to capital and the espionage spending ratio are a little more valuable than the other modifiers. I'd need a 2nd screenshot of a different tech steal to verify this, but it isn't a big deal.

 

[Manco Capac]

I'll see later if I can update in a way I can play three turns. For now, I'm out a little (1-1.5 hours).