SGOTM 15 - Kakumeika

[Sun Tzu Wu]

I have confirmed Tachywaxon's test that giving cities for a peace treaty to someone's worst enemy incurs no "worst enemy" penalties. I will attach the test game below.

We definitely need to take Shaka Bacon Bit back from Ghenghis T164 by declaring war on him. Hamma is too weak to make peace with Shaka T163, as he says "I'd love to, but you have to talk to the other guy". We certainly can't stop the war by approaching Shaka without getting a "-4 traded with worst enemy penalty"

Spoiler :

If we avoid giving Shaka any free war success, he should be willing to sign a peace treaty T164 for SBB and GhostTown. I like giving him GhostTown too because having a city on both sides of the war being threatened might enable us to buy peace between Shaka/Hamma by trading a tech to Hammarugawa.

...

We will have to pray that either we can stop the war between Hamma/Shaka T164, or that Hamma's monster stack hidden in the east doesn't come around Shaka Bacon Bit T164 or T165.

Maybe try to get Hamma to trade embargo Cyrus if peace between Hamma/Shaka can't be bought T164.

I doubt Shaka Bacon Bit is being guarded by Ghenghi units. Ghenghi and Cyrus do not have open borders.

If we stop the War between Hammuragawa and Shakagawa, we need only give Shakagawa GhostTown, since he has 77% Culture there, it can't flip to anyone else.

What do we lose by making peace between Hammuragawa and Shakagawa? I was concerned that Hammuragawa would abstain in the RL DV vote, because he can't choose between us and Shakagawa for RL DV. Now that I see Hammuragawa's visible Diplomacy with Shakagawa (-6) compared to our visible Diplomacy (+14), I'm not so sure, but how many Diplomacy bonuses will come back with a Peace Treaty?

Thanks for doing the test game.

Maybe you can put together a basic PPP, specifying all the key things we must do to win RL DV in t166, excluding the Hindu Population Total and RL DV Threshold.

Once we agree to a basic plan, we can include planned Hindu population changes, with the total planned Hindu Population and RL DV Threhold for each turn remaining? Making sure we are significantly under the RL DV Threhold by the end of t164. Finally spam Hinduism on t165 like I suggested in a previous post.

We worked extermely hard to get this close to RL DV, let's make sure we don't mess up something that let's our t166 opportunity to win slip by.

Sun Tzu Wu

 

[bcool]

taking SBB on T164 and giving Shaka GT and SBB on T164 as part of the peace deal sounds good to me.

I assume we are not worried about losing more units to Shaka. We probably are leaving all the units not involved in Bulawaya capture on the forest hill and upgrading them with likely promos to prevent any war losses to Shaka, right?

Is there a city with a bit less population that we can spread hinduism to Hamm?
Is there really any need to risk spreading hinduism to him on T163? I assume it just makes whipping down to the right population easier.

I'm fine with flipping him to OR this turn with espionage (I assume we will have plenty left to flip him to hinduism on T165)

 

[Kaitzilla]

If you check my screenshot, you can see that Hamma making peace with Shaka is redded out. Because Shaka is sieging Hamma's northmost city, we have to approach Shaka if we want to end their war, which we cannot due to the -4 penalty. A -4 diplo penalty would lose the game for us. The only way we can end their war through Hamma is if Hamma also threatens one of Shaka's cities. That is why I favor giving SBB and GhostTown to Shaka on T164. GhostTown being under threat by Hamma might be enough to make peace between them, and if it isn't, we let Hamma take GhostTown and pray that SBB doesn't revolt to Cyrus on T165 or T166.

I have a plan outlined for us to win, just have to type/transcribe it off my notes.

 

[Sun Tzu Wu]

Hrmm, that is a pretty good idea. I think Hamsville is about to grow to 2, so that would be 18 Hindu Pop T164 not 17. 18 seems pretty close to 22. It would be a heck of a way to lose the game if Hamma converted to Hindu T164.

Also, Hamma was bribed into Mercantilism T159, so if we want him in Oraginzed Religion T163, it would have to be with a spy flip.

Hammuragawa will liberate Hammsville to us. After we give Shakagawa GhostTown, he may also accept Hammsville from us; is there anything that prevents us from doing that? Add Shaka Bacon Bit and we can have three Hindu cities in Shakagawa's possession, yet with Peace between Hammuragawa and Shakagawa, GhostTown is secure (Shakagawa 77% culture).

Sorry, forgot about Theocracy. No, let's just give one of our two Hindu missionaries yet in t163 to Hammuragawa and let him spread it were he wants (even Babylon at 13P is still safe for us - total 20 - completely safe if Borsippa holds through t164). On t164 or t165, we can bribe Hammuragawa into Organized Religion and use our three Hindu Missionaries to spread where they can most likely succeed.

Sun Tzu Wu

 

[mabraham]

An AI's choice of state religion is determined by the number of cities with the candiate religions, and the amount of population they have. There's a factor in favour of not changing religion, and a factor in favour of the AP religion, and a factor in favour of the AI's favourite religion (Buddhism, for Toku). IIRC those factors are all of similar sizes. So all up, Hammu will still prefer Buddhism so long as he as at least as many Buddhist cities and people as Hindu - and maybe a little less, but we'd have to do some accounting to be sure of that case.

Hence spreading to a non-religious Hammu city is pretty much a free way for us to get some voting breathing space - but we'd need Hammu in OR, or to hope he'd do it himself if we give him the missionary.

 

[Kaitzilla]

taking SBB on T164 and giving Shaka GT and SBB on T164 as part of the peace deal sounds good to me.

I assume we are not worried about losing more units to Shaka. We probably are leaving all the units not involved in Bulawaya capture on the forest hill and upgrading them with likely promos to prevent any war losses to Shaka, right?

Is there a city with a bit less population that we can spread hinduism to Hamm?
Is there really any need to risk spreading hinduism to him on T163? I assume it just makes whipping down to the right population easier.

I'm fine with flipping him to OR this turn with espionage (I assume we will have plenty left to flip him to hinduism on T165)

Hmm, what about infecting that city Shaka is sieging T153? It has 7 pop instead of 10, and if Hamma loses it to Shaka, that might solve a problem of ours.

If Hamma lost it to Shaka, Hamma would lose both 7 Hindu and 7 Buddist Pop and remain Buddist I think. If he keeps the city, then he has 29 Buddist pop and 14 Hindu pop. Shaka taking the city would halve its population and gain him some Hindu votes.

Here is the current location of the 2 Hindu Missionaries:

Spoiler :

 

[mabraham]

taking SBB on T164 and giving Shaka GT and SBB on T164 as part of the peace deal sounds good to me.

Sounds good if the other pieces work with it.

I assume we are not worried about losing more units to Shaka. We probably are leaving all the units not involved in Bulawaya capture on the forest hill and upgrading them with likely promos to prevent any war losses to Shaka, right?

We have OB with pair, so we can hide in Bulawayo if we need/want to.

Is there a city with a bit less population that we can spread hinduism to Hamm?
Is there really any need to risk spreading hinduism to him on T163? I assume it just makes whipping down to the right population easier.

Yeah, probably not needed.

I'm fine with flipping him to OR this turn with espionage (I assume we will have plenty left to flip him to hinduism on T165)

Yes, we have heaps of EPs and 3 spies in Hammsville.

 

[bcool]

I don't like the random swing of the voting situation with the unknown of whether shaka will take the city or not.

7 votes for us if Hamm keeps it
6-8? votes against us if Hamm loses it

I suppose that doesn't matter much since any spreads before T165 are to increase the number of votes so we have less than 75%?

I'd like to know regardless. Why don't we scout the city with a worker and see how likely it is that Borsippa will fall. It probably has a castle? Seems like it might not easily fall.

 

[Kaitzilla]

Hammuragawa will liberate Hammsville to us. After we give Shakagawa GhostTown, he may also accept Hammsville from us; is there anything that prevents us from doing that?

Yes, the -4 worst enemy penalty means we can't gift a city to Shaka outside of a peace treaty event.

 

[bcool]

We can't hide in the gifted city with the units that we used to kill the city defenders. So those units are stuck on the hill. So it makes sense to leave all the units there to protect them at least on T153.

 

[Sun Tzu Wu]

If you check my screenshot, you can see that Hamma making peace with Shaka is redded out. Because Shaka is sieging Hamma's northmost city, we have to approach Shaka if we want to end their war, which we cannot due to the -4 penalty. A -4 diplo penalty would lose the game for us. The only way we can end their war through Hamma is if Hamma also threatens one of Shaka's cities. That is why I favor giving SBB and GhostTown to Shaka on T164. GhostTown being under threat by Hamma might be enough to make peace between them, and if it isn't, we let Hamma take GhostTown and pray that SBB doesn't revolt to Cyrus on T165 or T166.

I have a plan outlined for us to win, just have to type/transcribe it off my notes.

Since Hammagawa wants Peace with Shakagawa, it doesn't make much sense for him to give us -4 for making it so. Has this been verified in a test game? Of course a lot of things in this game don't make sense.

Please include the possibility of Hammuragawa liberating Hammsville to us. If Shakagawa would accept Hammsville from us, I suppose we might get a traded with worst enemy penalty for that though. The only possibility is his accepting all three cities in a Peace deal, but I'm sure he needs GhostTown in his possession, before he will accept Hammsville, so that won't work either.

Sun Tzu Wu

 

[Kaitzilla]

I'd like to know regardless. Why don't we scout the city with a worker and see how likely it is that Borsippa will fall. It probably has a castle? Seems like it might not easily fall.

I can do that ya. I'll download the save from the server, do the move, and upload again. Whoever watches our saves chart will be mystified, but best to be meticulous.

**Update** Scouted and uploaded. No info was generated to paste here from the logs. Here is the screenshot, Borsippa has 2 CGII longbows on a hill defending along with an axe and catapult:

 

[Kaitzilla]

Since Hammagawa wants Peace with Shakagawa, it doesn't make much sense for him to give us -4 for making it so. Has this been verified in a test game? Of course a lot of things in this game don't make sense.

Please include the possibility of Hammuragawa liberating Hammsville to us. If Shakagawa would accept Hammsville from us, I suppose we might get a traded with worst enemy penalty for that though. The only possibility is his accepting all three cities in a Peace deal, but I'm sure he needs GhostTown in his possession, before he will accept Hammsville, so that won't work either.

Sun Tzu Wu

The mechanics of what is going on with making peace between Shaka and Hamma came up during my last turnset . I still don't quite understand it but DanF tried to explain it.

For our current situation, we can only get peace between Shaka and Hamma T153 if we give a large tech to Shaka for them to make peace. This will cause Hamma to give us a "-4 traded with worst enemies penalty" because they are worst enemies and tech-for-peace is a trade. So GhostTown is no longer a reliable Hindu city to give to Shaka.

 

[Sun Tzu Wu]

I assume we are not worried about losing more units to Shaka. We probably are leaving all the units not involved in Bulawaya capture on the forest hill and upgrading them with likely promos to prevent any war losses to Shaka, right?

I'd prefer to just move them into Bulawayo just in case it does help with preventing a revolt to Shakagawa.

Is there a city with a bit less population that we can spread hinduism to Hamm?
Is there really any need to risk spreading hinduism to him on T163? I assume it just makes whipping down to the right population easier.

Borsippa as Kaitzilla mentioned is the only option. It's a good option only if we are sure Borsippa holds. Shakagawa has 6 Catapults that can bombard and the AI will likely try to attack at 40-60 Def, if the odds of capturing the city are fair.

I'm fine with flipping him to OR this turn with espionage (I assume we will have plenty left to flip him to hinduism on T165)

After spamming Hinduism to several of Hammuragawa's cities, we don't really need to flip him into Hinduism and he may do so himself, if his Hindu Population greatly exceeds his Buddhist Population.

Sun Tzu Wu

 

[Kaitzilla]

I'd prefer to just move them into Bulawayo just in case it does help with preventing a revolt to Shakagawa.

Bulawayo is currently in revolt for 4 turns and is safe from revolting to Shaka for those 4 turns. I prefer to keep the stack on the forest hill where Shaka can't chew them up and gain any war success.

 

[Sun Tzu Wu]

Bulawayo is currently in revolt for 4 turns and is safe from revolting to Shaka for those 4 turns. I prefer to keep the stack on the forest hill where Shaka can't chew them up and gain any war success.

Finally, something that makes sense in this game. Just kidding. Military should be needed to subdue a revolt in progress.

Shakagawa and Mansagawa do not have Open Borders, so our military units that can be moved into Bulawayo can not be touched by Shakagawa without a DoW or OB with Mansagawa (either one of which is unlikely). I noticed that mabraham has said something similar already.

The units can even be given to Mansagawa once inside Bulawayo, but not until we have Peace with Shakagawa, since Power rating is probably important too.

Sun Tzu Wu

 

[Kaitzilla]

PPP T163-T165​

Goal: Get all civs to have a safe Hindu city by T164. Vote for religious victory and use Hammarugawa to get over 75% for a T166 win.

The main problem remains Shakagawa. We currently have only GhostTown to give him for peace and no way to make Hammarugawa not take it the very next turn. We cannot get Hamma to forge peace because the option is redded out while he is under siege from Shaka, and we can't get Shaka to do it without a "-4 traded with worst enemy penalty" from Hammugawa.

Hamma's lands and current vote totals:

Spoiler :

T163

1) Move Axe using the galley and Maceman towards Shaka Bacon Bit in preperation to take from Ghenghigawa T164. It should be undefended since Ghenghi and Cyrus have closed borders.
2) 2-Pop Whip a Hindu Missionary in DeerGold City. Have it head to Size_8 BabsTown T164.
3) Move one Northern Hindu Missionary to Size_10 Akkad and the other to Size_8 Dur-Kurigalen
4) Halt all city growths. We are currently at 75% of the vote. Dehli builds wealth, DeerGold builds Missionary, all other cities start on Pike/Maceman/Treb for possible whip T164. Start an archer 30 or less unit in LizTown and let it grow to Size 2. Will whip the city to Size 1 before giving to Elizagawa for a peace treaty T164.
5) Disband Spear in Bulawayo so Shaka can't kill itOk I'll let it live and hope Team_AI and Shaka borders stay closed 1 turn. Promote a medic and Combat II mace with a few combat promos elsewhere. Keep our stack on forest hilltop next to Bulawayo.
6) Move Explorer away from Shaka's SoD near Borsippa.
7) Wealth slider stays at 100%. We are good on espionage against Hammarugawa.
8) Move a military unit to within the BFC of GhostTown for T164 in case we can gift it to Hamma to get threat on GhostTown and maybe a peace treaty between Hamma/Shaka.

T164

1) Declare war on Ghenghigawa and take Shaka Bacon Bit with Mace or Axe.
2) Make peace with Shakagawa for SBB+GhostTown
3) Purchase peace between Shaka/Hamma by trading Hamma a tech if it is available. If not, then try to bribe Hamma to trade embargo Cyrus so no Hidden Hamma units can take Shaka Bacon Bit.
4) Make peace with Elizagawa for LizTown after whipping the city to Size 1. Sign open borders treaty. Move all nearby military units in to keep it from revolting. Gift Liz one unit to hopefully prevent flip if a revolt occurs.
5) Gift Elizagawa FishTown if she will take it after whipping it down as much as possible. This should ensure only Shaka will be a remaining problem.
6) Whip our population down to 70% exactly if first 5 steps go smoothly. Make sure no cities grow, or if the whips cause the food box to be overful and assure growth, whip a bit more.
7) Move DeerGold's Hindu Missionary to BabsTown.
8) Upload game for team to check that all AI have a Hindu vote and that we are under 75% for the Religious Resolution.

T165

1) Vote Ghandi for Religious Victory.
2) Bribe/Spy flip Hammarugawa to Organized Religion and Hinduism.
3) Infect Dur, Akkad, and BabsTown with Hindu missionaries.
4) The approximately 59 votes that Hamma will have after the spreads and Hindu conversion will give him about 24% of the vote and us about 58% of the vote. That is 82% total.
5) Grow all cities, as we can't possibly reach from 58% to 75% with 240ish votes in the world now.
6) Pray that SBB doesn't flip to Cyrus or the game is ruined if Shaka doesn't have another Hindu City in between T165-T166.


Diplo

Refuse any demands from Shaka as Hamma hates him. Also refuse demands from Liz as Toku hates her.
Grant demands for gold/tech/resources to other Gawas.

Stopping Points

GhostTown or SBB revolt and join Hamma/Cyrus. 20% chance of it happening to one of them between T163-T164, and 1% chance of it happening to both I'd estimate.
Any of steps 1-4 from T164 don't go as planned.
Step 2 from T165 doesn't go as planned.
Something unexpected comes up.

Check Every Turn

To Make sure and save!
Borders between angry Hatty and Toku stay closed
Revenge Ghenghis army can't make it through Toku because war just ended, but check they don't have open borders either just in case.

Backup Plans

If we miss T166 win because we can't get Shaka a Hindu city, then North_AI might Liberate Bulawayo back to Shaka in a few turns and the peace treaty prevents us from another shot at Religious Victory until T186. Our stack would get teleported to Cyrus' lands hopefully and we could start invading Shaka again T174. If North_AI keeps Bulawayo, then we can try for T176 win by once again getting Shaka a Hindu City somehow.

If something goes wrong between T165-T166 after we spread like mad and convert Hammarugawa to Hinduism, then the game is ruined as near as I can tell. This would include Shaka losing SBB to Cyrus' culture and not owning GhostTown because Hamma took it T165 or LizTown flipping back to us even though we filled it with our military units.

 

[Kaitzilla]

Finally, something that makes sense in this game. Just kidding. Military should be needed to subdue a revolt in progress.

Shakagawa and Mansagawa do not have Open Borders, so our military units that can be moved into Bulawayo can not be touched by Shakagawa without a DoW or OB with Mansagawa (either one of which is unlikely). I noticed that mabraham has said something similar already.

The units can even be given to Mansagawa once inside Bulawayo, but not until we have Peace with Shakagawa, since Power rating is probably important too.

Sun Tzu Wu

We might need the stack threatening Shaka cities from the forest Hilltop rather than being safe inside Bulawayo. Anything that attacks it will die.

I've had a change of heart on giving units to Team_AI cities. They have been in WHEOOHRN for a while and only knew Hatty/Shaka/and us when they wen't into it. I don't want them to use newly gifted units to pick a fight with Shaka and get Bulawayo crushed. I certainly think we should put our stack in there in 4 turns though.

 

[bcool]

PPP looks good to me, the switches T163 or T164 that we were discussing earlier are unnecessary and risky. (random spreads to Hamm if he has OR could screw us up for example). So I'm glad you abandoned them.

disbanding the spear in Bulawayo is fine (there is some rare chance shaka switches out of hindu, then at pleased with north would get OB with them and kill our spear--remote but might as well disband him)

you're good to go in my book. I'm going to sleep soon, so I won't be around for any debate after this.

 

[Sun Tzu Wu]

Kaitzilla, the PPP looks very good. The chance that Shakagawa loses Shaka Bacon Bit in 2t is quite remote; We will have two military units reducing revolt of Shaka Bacon Bit to Cyrusgawa. Hammuragawa trade embargo with Cyrusgawa is good, cheap insurance against conquest of Shaka Bacon Bit by Hammuragawa.

Maybe with Hammuragawa threatening GhostTown, Hammuragawa will be able to offer Peace terms with Shakagawa in a Gandhi brokered Peace deal on t165.

Great job!

Sun Tzu Wu