SGOTM 16 - Kakumeika

[Manco Capac]

At Normal speed we should normally be able to switch 2 civics for one turn of anarchy, especially early enough in the game. Have we passed that threhold already?

Sun Tzu Wu

I was about to research that thread where I calculated the threshold early in this SGOTM, but search is stubborn again. What was your google trick again, STW?

Yes, that is 2 civics for 1 turn anarchy, but after the war, I betcha it's gonna be 1 turn each civic with all those conquered cities.

 

[Walter_Wolf]

Land is power .

 

[LowtherCastle]

a simple calculus of of each city should do the job, but city locations are more or less needed and their populations too.

My estimates:

city      pop commerce culture research espionage DistToBib
Bibracte   6     9        9       6           
Vienne     6     4        5       0
Tolosa     6     6        5       0
Gergovia   3     4        2       0
Camulo     3    14        2       0
Verlamium  3     4        2       0                   4
Durnovar   3     3        2       0                   7
Isca       1     2        0       0
Duro       1     1        0       0
Bagacum    1     2        0       0                   8
          --    --       --      --      --
totals    33    49       27       6       4

GNP 86-expenses

Here's an updated test save, dotmapped according to what I think is knwon or likely. Before adding Bagacum, I canceled Brennus TRs with Ramesses, at which point he wouldn't accept our cities any more. Then I added Bagacum.

.

 

[Sun Tzu Wu]

For length of anarchy formula, I searched for

Anarchy length formula

Results:

T-hawk's post on exactly this topic:

http://forums.civfanatics.com/showthread.php?t=342624

Other search results may be better, but this one was better than I expected. Right to the point.

Sun Tzu Wu

 

[LowtherCastle]

@Kaitzilla

Some simplifications for your turnset.

1. We need a back-up Confu Miss for TH also. HC can pre-build both Confu and spy for 9h each. Then 2whip the spy and the COnfu Miss follows immediately and arrives at TH for a T21 spread, if necessary. I think HC should then build another COnfu Miss until it can 2whip a forge.

2. Then Orleans can build a library in 4 turns, a worker in 3 turns, and then we'll have MC for a forge.

3. Barb Island, if we SIP, is 4f ahead if we chop, then pasture sheep and horses. It should also 2whip a forge asap. I agree with bcool that it needs a Confu Miss asap.

4. I think DrunkPigs should still focus on infra, starting a lh, but 2whipping the forge asap.

That's a start. The MM gets hairy around DPF and CornPF. In particular, the question is, can the worker at HC-1SE mine before moving on? Various optimizations need to be tested. How much can CornPF spare the pigs without slowing down our REX too much, etc. I think that's the key hang-up with your PPP. Paris is relatively straightforward.

 

[Kaitzilla]

For length of anarchy formula, I searched for

Anarchy length formula

Results:

T-hawk's post on exactly this topic:

http://forums.civfanatics.com/showthread.php?t=342624

Other search results may be better, but this one was better than I expected. Right to the point.

Sun Tzu Wu

Oh nice!

"On a normal map, it's every 100 / 8 = 12.5 cities. So your 13th city, 25th, 38th, 50th, and so on each cause extra anarchy."

We can do double civic switches right up until we settle a 13th city.

 

[Kaitzilla]

@Kaitzilla

Some simplifications for your turnset.

1. We need a back-up Confu Miss for TH also. HC can pre-build both Confu and spy for 9h each. Then 2whip the spy and the COnfu Miss follows immediately and arrives at TH for a T21 spread, if necessary. I think HC should then build another COnfu Miss until it can 2whip a forge.

2. Then Orleans can build a library in 4 turns, a worker in 3 turns, and then we'll have MC for a forge.

3. Barb Island, if we SIP, is 4f ahead if we chop, then pasture sheep and horses. It should also 2whip a forge asap. I agree with bcool that it needs a Confu Miss asap.

4. I think DrunkPigs should still focus on infra, starting a lh, but 2whipping the forge asap.

That's a start. The MM gets hairy around DPF and CornPF. In particular, the question is, can the worker at HC-1SE mine before moving on? Various optimizations need to be tested. How much can CornPF spare the pigs without slowing down our REX too much, etc. I think that's the key hang-up with your PPP. Paris is relatively straightforward.

Very nice, thanks

 

[mabraham]

@Kaitzilla

Some simplifications for your turnset.

1. We need a back-up Confu Miss for TH also. HC can pre-build both Confu and spy for 9h each. Then 2whip the spy and the COnfu Miss follows immediately and arrives at TH for a T21 spread, if necessary. I think HC should then build another COnfu Miss until it can 2whip a forge.

If there's no Buddhism spread to TH, missionary spread to TH is certain, no? I don't want to focus on a backup missionary on the off-chance that Buddhism spreads when Confu must be several times more likely! A second missionary that is really intended to go elsewhere is OK, though. But I'd rather HC be getting its AP buildings up while we wait 7 turns to find out if we'll have our 55% shrine than have HC rushing for a second missionary. The shrine makes natural spread three times as likely, or something. Rushing a second missionary out of HC to speed up religious buildings and OR elsewhere seems like a false economy to me.

2. Then Orleans can build a library in 4 turns, a worker in 3 turns, and then we'll have MC for a forge.

3. Barb Island, if we SIP, is 4f ahead if we chop, then pasture sheep and horses. It should also 2whip a forge asap. I agree with bcool that it needs a Confu Miss asap.

BI has got granary/forge/lighthouse to whip before it really needs to get confu buildings, and that's a big window for natural spreads. All those buildings add at least as many effective hammers as the confu buildings. So the only real value of a spread is getting access to OR earlier. That's nice, but that niceness has to pay off 40 hammers (plus opportunity cost in the city that built it) in the window before a spontaneous spread would have occurred. Whipping and chopping any three of the five obvious early buildings for BI offers enough bonus hammers from OR to break even, but it's going to take 15-20 turns to reach that point.

How likely is a spread supposed to be to BI? To DP? 5% per turn? Anyone have the formula? We can probably compute how probable a spread needs to be and compare that with a spreadsheet growth plan and see the payoff returned by the some future time is reached of a spread at any intermediate point in time. An earlier spread has a snowball effect, of course, and the analysis is complicated by whip timings - you don't need OR at all before the first whip.

4. I think DrunkPigs should still focus on infra, starting a lh, but 2whipping the forge asap.

My first thought was that I don't think much of a lighthouse anywhere without a seafood, but the ability to grow on coasts while setting up 3-pop whips is pretty good. If we weren't going to work mines sometime soon, though, we've settled on the wrong tile?

That's a start. The MM gets hairy around DPF and CornPF. In particular, the question is, can the worker at HC-1SE mine before moving on? Various optimizations need to be tested. How much can CornPF spare the pigs without slowing down our REX too much, etc. I think that's the key hang-up with your PPP. Paris is relatively straightforward.

If our TH strategy has any doubt about whether we'll get TH *back* fairly soon then we want another spam city (e.g. the inland clam city I've been suggesting, or maybe something SW of Paris to use the wheat when Paris gets too big). That has consequences for the pressure on the worker at HC-1SE to get to the deer, or not.

If our TH strategy has any doubt about whether we'll give TH away, then we want to focus on getting DPF going. Either way, CPF wants to put out at least two more workboats soon from whip overflows, so there is no rush to get a missionary over there (because OR only applies to *buildlings*, of course).

 

[Sun Tzu Wu]

Natural Religion spread:

See the VoiceOfUnreason's post #4 and #5 for rather detailed explanation of the probabilities involved.

Sun Tzu Wu

 

[Kaitzilla]

The peaceful option with Brennus is having difficulties in testing.

First, for some reason opening borders with Brennus on T117 after some big tech gifts T116 doesn't give us trade routes with him until T121 I've never seen that before.

Second, simulated Brennus defied the AP resolution to give Trojan back to us. It also resulted in a -2 diplo penalty on T122 "voted against us". That will cancel out the +4 trade relations Cautious we earned T121 when Worst Enemy drops off T122 and is replaced by won't open borders at annoyed. Then we get another -1 border tensions T123

Spoiler :

Decisions decisions. If we want peace with Brennus, I think we might have to give up gifting away Trojan Horse and just send spies south to steal Iron Working and pray he doesn't attack us. Or we go forward with the gift and hope he doesn't defy. Arrgg

If we pick war with Brennus, we seriously need to consider settling clam/sugar way out west because Brennus can cut off our trade routes to Egypt by settling there and refusing us open borders.

 

[Kaitzilla]

Can't build the Hanging Gardens in the test game because the AI already built it elsewhere and removing it with World Builder doesn't allow it to be built again.

I've adjusted the T116 test game by giving us Aesthetics which will allow us to build a placeholder wonder (Statue of Zeus) in place of the Hanging Gardens. A few monuments will have to be removed and culture values adjusted, but it should be doable. Just replace the SoZ with Hanging Gardens T124 and add +1 to all population with world builder. Or maybe its add Hanging Gardens T123 and remove SoZ T124 to keep the Great People Points correct.

Also, there was a health issue in Paris in the test game T118 because a trade couldn't be canceled, so I added a temporary road to Drunk Pigs that can be removed T120.


With these 2 adjustments it looks like a good simulation.


I'm gonna put out a PPP for the first 6 turns tonight. After that things get murky depending on if we are declaring war or not and where iron is located.

 

[Walter_Wolf]

Can you check when the HG was built in the test game?
I think I still have the test game saves for each turn from T106 - T116.

If we manage to fix that, we would still be able to use it for the next few turnsets.

cheers

 

[Kaitzilla]

PPP#2 for T116-T126​

Grand Strategy

Conquer up to the Domination Limit and race to Future Tech 1 using corporations to win the fastest while completing 10 objectives.

1) Blazing: You must submit a save covering at least your first 100 turns not later than 2 months after game start.
2) Steal EITHER Iron Working, OR Astronomy, OR Physics using espionage. [Probably Iron Working from Brennus T121]
3) At least one AI opponent has been eliminated (conquered) by your team
4) Kill Humbaba 32 Mech Infantry Super Medic to our Northwest
5) Be EITHER the United Nations Secretary General OR the Apostolic Palace Resident [AP Resident as long as we dont research Mass Media!]
6) You own at least 2 Legendary culture cities
7) You own at least 3 Holy Shrines
8) You own at least 3 Corporate Headquarters
9) You have learned Future Tech 1
10) Fulfil the requirements for TWO victory conditions, at least one of which is NOT Conquest or Domination.
(For example, your spaceship arrives on Alpha Centauri the same turn you get Domination, that’s two. If you achieve domination on the same turn as conquest victory, then you need one more victory condition to fulfil this condition).


Currently, an economy running off of cottaged-bureaucratic-Paris supported by The Great Lighthouse is humming along strongly. We can maintain a 50% teching rate without going negative gpt.

Getting Ramesses II to Friendly between T123-T125 will allow monopoly trades such as Construction/Aesthetics/Drama to be traded. Ramesses is most likely currently pursuing Music. We must quickly get Music in a trade before Ramesses starts building Sistene's if we wish to build it ourselves. Hopefully he finishes any Aesthetics wonders quickly(Parthenon?) so we can move in that direction.

Trojan City is planned to be gifted to Brennus T120 (T121 if Brennus is Ramesses' worst enemy on T120 for some reason) This can be accomplished by gifting Brennus 1gpt until he comes out of economic crisis. Then Iron Working will be stolen from him and War will be declared on Brennus T120 to null all the gpt gifts. We can take the city back between T121-T122 to generate war success and keep the city to tend cottages. Will give Brennus the city again for peace to end the war and possibly steal Calendar at a later date if both spy steals fail.

Testing indicates that the AP resolution to return Trojan City might fail if Brennus defies the resolution. The peaceful route with Brennus leads to crappy trade routes, unreliable gems, superior scouting, and letting Brennus get back on his feet. The only big tech we plan on letting Brennus have is Code of Laws so he will use Organized Religion to fix his economy a little by whipping courthouses.


-----------------------------------------------
Know Your Enemies - Brennus, Ramesses II

Reference Screenshots for T116 are here and here

Bcool's T96-T106 Turnset results are here and here

Walter Wolf's T106-T116 Turnset results here and here
-----------------------------------------------


Goal Orientated PPP

Research

T116-T121 Metal Casting (0% Research on T116,T117 and 100% after. Will need the 40 gold from Brennus T116)
T122-T126 Undecided (Maybe Machinery if we have iron, Paper if we don't)

Great Person

T123 - A Great Prophet or Great Merchant will be born in Orleans. The GP will be used to make The Kong Miao in Orleans to help reach our 10 SGOTM goals. The GM will be sent to Egypt's Temple of Artemis city (Thebes) for a trade mission and wait while Paris builds population. Paris at Pop 11 is ideal. It is 10 turns from Orleans to Thebes.


Paris
T116 - Aquaduct; Wheat,x5FPcottage,Pmine
T117 - Aquaduct; Wheat,x4FPcottage,Pcottage,Pmine (Give FPcottage to Orleans)
T118 - Whip Aquaduct; Wheat,x4FPcottage,Pmine (Give FPcottage to Trojan City and give their corn to CornPigsFish)
T119 - Hanging Gardens; Wheat,x3FPcottage,Pcottage,Pmine (Give FPcottage to both Orleans and Trojan City)
T120-T121 Hanging Gardens; Wheat,x4FPcottage,x2Pmine
T122 - Hanging Gardens; Wheat,x4FPcottage,Pcottage,Pmine
T123-T125 Forge; Wheat,x4FPcottage,Pcottage,x2Pmine (One Citizen starting T124, Is Market first better here?)

Orleans
T116 - Library; Fish,FPcottage,Gmine,x2FloodPlain
T117 - Library; Fish,x2FPcottage,Gmine,Floodplain (Take FPcottage from Paris)
T118 - Library; Fish,FPcottage,Gmine,Pmine,x2FloodPlain
T119 - Library; Fish,x2FPcottage,Gmine,Floodplain (Take FPcottage from Paris again)
T120-T122 Worker; Fish,Sheep,x2FPcottage,Gmine,Pmine (Name worker Leroy)
T123 - Forge; Fish,x2FPcottage,Gmine,Pmine,FloodPlain
T124 - Whip Forge; Fish,x2FPcottage,Gmine,Pmine,FloodPlain
T125-T126 Colossus; Fish,x2FPcottage,Gmine,Pmine,Engineer

Horse City
T116 - Confuscian Missionary; Deer,Horse,Sheep,Pmine
T117 - Spy;Deer,Horse,Sheep,Pmine
T118 - Whip Spy; Deer,Sheep (Moves into Trojan City T120 if first spy fails, attempts to steal Iron Working T122 @80% chance again)
T119 - Confuscian Missionary; Deer,Sheep,Horse (Heads to Drunk Pigs to infect once it starts another building)
T120 - Chariot; Deer,Horse,Gmine
T121 - Warrior; Deer,Horse,Gmine
T122 - Whip Barracks; Deer,Horse
T123 - Chariot; Deer,Horse
T124 - Warrior; Deer,Horse (Name warrior Tom)
T125 - Forge; Deer,Horse,Gmine

Drunk Pigs
T116-T117 Workboat; Pigs,x2FloodPlain
T118-T119 Workboat; Pigs,FPfarm,FloodPlain,Winetile (Working grassland for 2 turns here doesn't shave off a turn getting to pop 6 for some reason )
T120-T121 Workboat; Pigs,FPfarm,FloodPlain,Winetile,RiverPlain
T122-T123 Settler; Pigs,FPfarm,FloodPlain,Winetile,x2RiverPlain
T124 - Whip Settler; Pigs,FPfarm,FloodPlain,Winetile
T125 - Workboat; Pigs,FPfarm,FloodPlain,Winetile
This settler can be sent west to the weak Clam + Sugar to secure our trade routes with Egypt, north for another good island city, or east attempting to get iron.

Tojan City
T116-T117 Wealth; Corn
T118 - Wealth; FPCottage (From Paris)
T119 - Whip Granary; FPCottage
T120 - Gift to Brennus and steal Iron Working after many gpt gifts
T121-T122 Wealth; if both spy steals failed. Granary or warrior if steal succeeded and we are keeping the city.
T123 - Give to Brennus for DoP(10 turns) if both steals failed, else keep and perform max growth

Lyons (Barb island city, settled in place T116 between sheep and fish)
T116-T120 Granary; Fish
T121 - Granary; Fish,Sheeptile
T122 - Whip Granary; Fish
T123 - Warrior; Fish
T124 - Warrior; Fish,Sheep (Crusoe moves 1E to help garrison, Scout moves 1S to ensure only northmost tile is not spawnbusted for a few turns)
T125 - Warrior; Fish,Sheep,Horsetile (Crusoe garrisons for one turn, heads back west to old spot T126)

CornFishPigs
T116 - Workboat; Fish,Pigs,x4Coast
T117-T118 Settler; Fish,Pigs,x4Coast
T119 Whip Settler; Fish,Pigs,Corn (Moves to 2N1E of Trojan City on T120. On T121 can move 1NE to settle DPF, west to the Orleans galley to settle a juicy? northern island or iron?, or south to pigs/clams/iron?)
T120 - Another Workboat; Fish,Pigs,Corn,Coast
T121 - Library; Fish,Corn,x2Coast
T122-T123 Another Settler; Fish,Pigs,Corn,x2Coast (HG will up the pop to 6 T124)
T124 - Settler; Fish,Corn,x4Coast
T125 - Whip Settler; Fish,Corn,Coast

DeerFishPigs (Settled 4E1S of Horse City)
T121 - Granary; Pigs
T122-T123 Granary; PhillForest
T124 - Whip Granary; Pigs
T125 - Warrior; Pigs



Eiffel
T116 - Move to 1W of Lyons
T117-T119 Chop forest for CornFishPigs
T120-T123 Pasture Sheep 1S of Lyons
T124 - Road 1W of Lyons
T125 - Pasture Horses 1N2W of Lyons

Fritz
T116 - Move to 2E of Paris
T117-T120 Mine
T121 - Move to 1S of Paris
T122-T125 Mine

Slave
T116 Chop forest into DeerFishPigs
T117-T118 Road 1SE of Trojan Horse
T119 Move to forest 3E of Paris
T120-T122 Chop forest for Paris
T123 - Road 2S of Trojan Horse
T124 - Move to phill 2E1S of Orleans before giving Trojan City away for peace
T125 - Mine

Satan
T116-T119 Mine
T120 - Move 2E to forest
T121-T123 Chop forest for DeerFishPigs
T124 - Road 1N DeerFishPigs
T125 - Improve Deer 2N1W of DeerFishPigs

Strauss
T116-T118 Farm 2E of Drunk Pigs
T119-T125 Farm 2E1N of Drunk Pigs
T126-T129 Chop forest 2S2W of Orleans to speed up Colossus 1turn

Pope
T116-T118 Move to 2E of Druink Pigs and Farm
T119 - Move 2S2E
T120-T122 Chop forest for Paris
T123 - Mine Iron if nearby, else move to 2S of Drunk Pigs
T125-T128 Mine 2S of Drunk Pigs

Leroy
T123 - Move to Ghill 1W of Orleans
T124-T125 Mine


Military (Only the units that move this turnset are listed)
Spies - If either one lives after stealing Iron Working, send to Camulo for future stealing
Eve - Move Southeast and then South and continue exploring inside Ramesses lands to find new cities
Boudica (Combat II Chariot) Take Adam's place so Adam can attempt a worker steal T123 when ceasefire/peace can be attempted
Archie - Move 1W and then 1SW and sentry to free up Boudica to head wherever needed (Being 1W is too vulnerable to a Brennus chariot )
Adam - Move to 5S2E of Drunk Pigs starting T118 to await a worker steal at gems/corn on T123
Galley2 - Move to 1N1E of Orleans to wait for Great Merchant or Settler from CFP. Great Merchant is 9 turns to mostly walk to Egypt and 9 turns to sail whole way on boat.
Sea Vous PLas - Pick up the scout and sail northeast to explore northeastern island, then head west to unfog north part of the northern islands.
Scout - Move east starting T116 to get on the Sea Vous Plas and help explore northern islands
Crusoe - Move 5W1N of Lyons starting T116 to fogbust the most area and free up scout
Adolph - Stop garrisoning CornPigsFish T120 and move west to help capture Trojan City T121 or T122 depending on spy success.
1st Workboat from CornFishPigs - Sail northeast to explore arctic islands and then head back home if dead end reached.
Barb Island Workboat - Settles on the fish tile T116.
Trojan Horse Chariot - Move 2S of Trojan City T120 and wait. Take back city T121 or head down to 6E4S of Paris to scout ocean for future settlement.
Horse City Chariot - Retake Trojan City T124 if backup spy was used, or head south if already taken.


Barbarian Schedule
T116-??? Barbian Galleys begin spawning unknown

-----------------------------------------------

Diplo
Will refuse all demands made by Brennus so we can declare war on T120
Will accept all tech/gold/resource demands from Ramesses except for Civil Service

Will trade Priesthood Code of Laws to Brennus for 40g T116
Might trade Priesthood to Brennus for gold
Will trade Fish to Brennus for 3gpt T116
Will trade Fishing and Sailing to Ramesses for spare gold and try to get +2 more trade bonus to reach Friendly faster

If no worst enemy problems, will gift Brennus 1gpt repeatedly T120 until he will take Trojan City as a gift. Will then steal Iron Working
Will declare war on Brennus T120 after the Trojan gift and Iron Working steal to sever gpt deals
Will not involve Ramesses in this war through bribes or AP so that we might trade Trojan or a different city to Brennus later without any Worst Enemy penalty.
If the IW steal succeeds T120 and Trojan had a lucky Confuscian spread and the gpt isn't too much, might wait for AP resolution to return city peacefully T122 and see if we can get it back T123 without war.

And never trade for the Iron Working tech! Steal it >_<

End of Turn
Save Game at the beginning and end of every turn
Screenshot Demographics and Espionage screen every turn
Record Ramesses' and Brennus' sabotage building values every turn for their cities
Check zoomed-out culture screen
Did Brennus! or Ramesses enter WHEOOHRN mode? (Fist Icon)

Stopping Conditions
Meet a new AI
Unexpected War Declaration
Ramesses converts to Buddism from a fluke spread to a core city
Gifting all 54gpt to Brennus after 54 trades still doesn't allow us to give him Trojan Horse T120 (Extremely Unlikely)
T121 reached or Iron Working stolen T120, whichever comes first. Team needs to digest Iron implications

 

[Kaitzilla]

Can you check when the HG was built in the test game?
I think I still have the test game saves for each turn from T106 - T116.

If we manage to fix that, we would still be able to use it for the next few turnsets.

cheers

From the game log, Hanging Gardens was completed T112 or T113 in the test game.

 

[Walter_Wolf]

From the game log, Hanging Gardens was completed T112 or T113 in the test game.

OK, I'll try to fix it later today.

 

[Kaitzilla]

OK, I'll try to fix it later today.

Sweet! Thanks

Also, if you are fiddling with the test game, make Orleans the Confuscian Holy City and delete Ramesses' units marching towards our borders. I was unable to figure out how to get rid of simulated Ramesses' war plotting against us.

We can always beg 10 gold in the test game before we go to war with Brennus to prevent a dog pile.

 

[Walter_Wolf]

CornFishPigs
T116 Workboat;
T117-T118 Settler;
T119 Whip Settler; (Moves to 2N1E of Trojan City on T120. On T121 can move 1NE to settle DPF, west to the Orleans galley to settle a juicy? northern island or iron?, or south to pigs/clams/iron?)
T120 Workboat;
T121-T123 Library;
Work another Settler when Size 6 reached again

Is it possible to get a bigger OF from the settler whip and to get two WB's here.
I would like to see sending the 1st one to scout the NE ice islands ASAP.
Besides, if we settle DPF with this settler, it's borders will pop after 5 turns, so I think it makes sense to time a 2nd workboat to net the fish the turn the borders pop.
Also, Satan (I believe it's Satan) could camp the deer for DPF to start working it the turn we settle if we delay the settler for a turn or two I think (pigs is a better tile for DPF, but I'd let CornPF work it as much possible in this phase).

 

[Kaitzilla]

Is it possible to get a bigger OF from the settler whip and to get two WB's here.
I would like to see sending the 1st one to scout the NE ice islands ASAP.
Besides, if we settle DPF with this settler, it's borders will pop after 5 turns, so I think it makes sense to time a 2nd workboat to net the fish the turn the borders pop.
Also, Satan (I believe it's Satan) could camp the deer for DPF to start working it the turn we settle if we delay the settler for a turn or two I think (pigs is a better tile for DPF, but I'd let CornPF work it as much possible in this phase).

Ya, there are two completed workboats there. I Bold a build if I'm starting something brand new from scratch.

 

[LowtherCastle]

How likely is a spread supposed to be to BI? To DP? 5% per turn? Anyone have the formula?

==============
Without Shrine
==============
Tile  Spread
dist  odds    Cities without Confucianism
----  ------  ---------------------------
 2    10.00%  
 3    10.00%  
 4    10.00%  Trojan Horse
 5    10.00%  
 6     3.33%  
 7     2.50%  DrunkPigs, DeerPigsFish
 8     1.67%  CornPigsFish, 
 9     1.43%  
10     1.25%  BarbIsland(SIP)
11     1.00%  BarbIsland(Sheep-1NW)  
12     0.91%  
13     0.77%  
14     0.71%  
15     0.67%  
16     0.59%  Clams3Fps

===========
With Shrine
===========
Tile  Spread
dist  odds    Cities without Confucianism
----  ------  ---------------------------
 2    20.00%  
 3    20.00%  
 4    20.00%  Trojan Horse
 5    20.00%  
 6     6.67%  
 7     5.00%  DrunkPigs, DeerPigsFish
 8     3.33%  CornPigsFish, 
 9     2,86%  
10     2,50%  BarbIsland(SIP)
11     2.00%  BarbIsland(Sheep-1NW)  
12     1.82%  
13     1.54%  
14     1.43%  
15     1.33%  
16     1.18%  Clams3Fps

For this map, the MaxPlotDistance=72.

 

[LowtherCastle]

If we want peace with Brennus, I think we might have to give up gifting away Trojan Horse and just send spies south to steal Iron Working and pray he doesn't attack us. Or we go forward with the gift and hope he doesn't defy. Arrgg

WIth open borders, our spies are much less likely to be detected:

Spy detection odds
==========================
            OBs     no OBs
           ------   ------ 
sitting     1.54%    3.87%
just moved  3.04%    7.62%
mission    80.65%   80.65%

Here are some possible steal Iron Working costs at the current spending ratio (1.17%):

Steal IW in
Camulodunum
(spy @ 50%)
============
         Eps
         ---
No OBs   299
OBs      239
OB+Confu 143

If we move the spy from TH, we can steal IW @50% on T129.