SGOTM 16 - Kakumeika

Ramesses will not consider Brennus his WE any more after T121 when they get +3 Civic, because according to Kaitzilla's Ramesses chart, Ramesses will max out at -2 for different religion. Unless Ramesses somehow goes to -2 before T121, Breenus won't be his WE till then either. So we should be able to gift Brennus a city as often as we like, from now on, if Brennus ever researches something we need...

===

bcool, could you upload the saves from your last turnset, please?

True, WE shouldn't be a problem as long as we refrain from doing the holy war or bribing Ramesses to attack Brennus. But eventually Brennus will attack one of us. I feel that there is a time limit past which we can't gift trojan in there somewhere because of the worst enemy thing, but have no proof.

That's why I like capturing Trojan City and then giving it for a 10 turn peace treaty. No WE hit, we can do the holy war, and we can capture the Trojan City again from Brennus once he researches Calendar. The worst that we should face is an archer if there are no open borders. We can DoW every time the peace treaty is up and get peace 4 turns later taking and giving Trojan forever theoretically to keep Brennus from actually ever attacking us. Not like there is anyone who likes him. :hmm:
 
18 turns. :ar15::ar15::ar15:
We won't. :deal:

===

Okay, I looked at worst-case scenarios to see if we could eliminate any solutions. I got this:

Worst-case scenarios
1. Gift gpt, spy FAIL, DoW, spy FAIL #2, SoD threatens, re-capture, DoP. Result: TOTAL FAILURE to steal IW till after ~T132.
2. Camulo, spy FAIL, FAIL...Succeed. Result: Steal IW very late in the game.
3. Gift techs, spy FAIL, spy, FAIL, close borders, ...spy succeed, DoW recapture. Result: Steal IW after gifting techs, but we have closed borders with Brennus.
4. Gift techs, spy succeed, AP defied, DoW, re-capture, CF. Result: Steal IW after gifting techs, but have closed borders with Brennus.

===

Unless we don't care if we get IW some time between T129 and T150, by process of elimination, my conclusion is that the only sensible solution is:
  1. Gift Brennus the techs up to Cautious
  2. Sign OBs with Brennus (asap)
  3. Gift Brennus Trojan Horse
  4. Trade for gems (same turn but before steal IW)
  5. Steal IW
With these options:
  • Spread Confu-Call AP Resolution to Return Trojan Horse
  • Dow-(bribe Ramesses to DoW)-recapture Trojan Horse-CF/DoP
So I suggest we trade:
T116 Phood for 40g+3gpt (as Kaitzilla said)
T116 Gift Theology​
Then hope that Bibracte starts building the Hagia Sophia. Then, if we can't OB yet:
T117 Gift CoL​
I firmly don't care if he builds the Chichen Itsa. I'd just rather not trade him Currency and give him such a big boost to his economy. Longbowmen are much worse than +25% city defenses. Plus, later we can always cancel OBs if we want to hurt his economy even more.


18 turns :eek:

I still favor giving Trojan City up for peace treaty. That way we have unlimited opportunities to steal Iron Working. If for some reason gift->capture->gift for 10-turns of peace is a bad idea, then I'd support the tech giving option.
 
True, WE shouldn't be a problem as long as we refrain from doing the holy war or bribing Ramesses to attack Brennus.
While they're at war, Ramesses will have negmods for him, so that's one factor I forgot in that post. Once they DoP he'll revert to Cautious.
I still favor giving Trojan City up for peace treaty. That way we have unlimited opportunities to steal Iron Working. If for some reason gift->capture->gift for 10-turns of peace is a bad idea, then I'd support the tech giving option.
We still need to get him to Cautious first. That's gifting gpt or techs. Imo, gifting gpt has a catastrophic worst-case scenario--being stuck with 10t of high gpt or FAILed IW steal.

Of course, we could always wait till T121 and gift Theology+CoL together, if his finances are still in trouble. Maybe he'll fix them up by then...

...or T120 to give us two cracks at IW.
 
While they're at war, Ramesses will have negmods for him, so that's one factor I forgot in that post. Once they DoP he'll revert to Cautious.
We still need to get him to Cautious first. That's gifting gpt or techs. Imo, gifting gpt has a catastrophic worst-case scenario--being stuck with 10t of high gpt or FAILed IW steal.

Of course, we could always wait till T121 and gift Theology+CoL together, if his finances are still in trouble. Maybe he'll fix them up by then...

...or T120 to give us two cracks at IW.

Gifting high gpt is only catastrophic if it doesn't result in us being able to give Brennus Trojan horse for free. War will sever the gpt deals, but we need the war success of capturing a city to end the war quickly. Giving the city back to Brennus for a peace treaty will result in unlimited opportunities to steal Iron Working.

I still like gift->war->take city back after tech steal->gift trojan again for 10T peace

Giving up a city for a peace treaty never results in any Worst Enemy penalties as we proved in SGOTM 15. I tested it again in the test game and fellow war partner Ramesses didn't give any penalty for Trojan City for peace. This isn't the first time I've worried the team for days over a non-existent problem :sad: I just hate unexpected -4 penalties!

We don't need to be Cautious with Brennus before he will take the initial city gift do we?

Open borders isn't needed.


Haha, I think we are missing what the other is thinking somehow. <3 all your posts
 
@Kaitzilla

FOr some reason, I thought you were getting the HG on T123. Your MM is very well optimized. Here are two options for getting the HG on T123 instead. It works fewer cottages, so they'd have to be borrowed by Orleans and Trojan Horse as much as possible:
Code:
Kaitzilla                                            h  +h base extra
=========                                            --- --- ---- -----
T116 p7 Wheat, 5FPs, 1Pcott        Barracks         48  14    8
T117 p7 Wheat, 5FPs, 1Pcott        Aquaduct          0  24    8  6 OF 
T118 p8 Wheat, 5FPs, 1Pcott, 4h    Aquaduct         24  21   12
T119 p6 Wheat, 5FPs                2whip Aquaduct   45 119    8 60 2whip 
T120 p7 Wheat, 5FPs, 1Pcott, 4h    Hanging Gardens   0 108   12 36
T121 p8 Wheat, 4FPs, 1Pcott, 4hx2  Hanging Gardens 108  36   16
T122 p8 Wheat, 4FPs, 1Pcott, 4hx2  Hanging Gardens 144 135   16 44 2chops                                                                                  
T123 p8 Wheat, 4FPs, 1Pcott, 4hx2  Hanging Gardens 279  36   15                                                                            
T124                               done            315                                                                                     
                                                                                   
T123 Variant 1                                       h  +h base extra
==============                                     --- --- ---- -----
T116 p7 wheat, 5fps,       , 4h    aqueduct          0  19   11 
T117 p7 wheat, 4fps, 1pcott, 4h    aqueduct         19  21   12                               
T118 p6 wheat, 4fps,       , 4h    aqueduct         40 124   11 60 2whip                                                              
T119 p6 wheat, 3fps, 1pcott, 4h    Hanging Gardens   0 108   12 36 OF                                                                      
T120 p7 wheat, 4fps,       , 4hx2  Hanging Gardens 108  33   15                                                                              
T121 p7 wheat, 4fps,       , 4hx2  Hanging Gardens 141  33   15                                                                              
T122 p7 wheat, 4fps, 1pcott, 4h    Hanging Gardens 174 126   12 44 2chops                                                                             
T123                               done            300                                                                    
                                                                                   
T123 Variant 2                                       h  +h base extra
==============                                     --- --- ---- -----
T116 p7 wheat, 5fps, 1pcott,       aqueduct          0  14    8 
T117 p7 wheat, 4fps, 1pcott, 4h    aqueduct         14  21   12                               
T118 p6 wheat, 4fps,       , 4h    aqueduct         35 124   11 60 2whip                                                              
T119 p6 wheat, 3fps, 1pcott, 4h    Hanging Gardens   0 101   12 33 OF                                                                      
T120 p7 wheat, 4fps,       , 4hx2  Hanging Gardens 101  33   15                                                                              
T121 p7 wheat, 4fps,       , 4hx2  Hanging Gardens 134  33   15                                                                              
T122 p7 wheat, 3fps, 1pcott, 4hx2  Hanging Gardens 165 135   16 44 2chops                                                                             
T123                               done            300
One additional advantage to the T123 variants is that they don't need to give up the sheep for Paris' health. Canceling that trade with Ramesses slows down +1 till T126, if I'm not mistaken.
 
@Kaitzilla

FOr some reason, I thought you were getting the HG on T123. Your MM is very well optimized. Here are two options for getting the HG on T123 instead. It works fewer cottages, so they'd have to be borrowed by Orleans and Trojan Horse as much as possible:
Code:
Kaitzilla                                            h  +h base extra
=========                                            --- --- ---- -----
T116 p7 Wheat, 5FPs, 1Pcott        Barracks         48  14    8
T117 p7 Wheat, 5FPs, 1Pcott        Aquaduct          0  24    8  6 OF 
T118 p8 Wheat, 5FPs, 1Pcott, 4h    Aquaduct         24  21   12
T119 p6 Wheat, 5FPs                2whip Aquaduct   45 119    8 60 2whip 
T120 p7 Wheat, 5FPs, 1Pcott, 4h    Hanging Gardens   0 108   12 36
T121 p8 Wheat, 4FPs, 1Pcott, 4hx2  Hanging Gardens 108  36   16
T122 p8 Wheat, 4FPs, 1Pcott, 4hx2  Hanging Gardens 144 135   16 44 2chops                                                                                  
T123 p8 Wheat, 4FPs, 1Pcott, 4hx2  Hanging Gardens 279  36   15                                                                            
T124                               done            315                                                                                     
                                                                                   
T123 Variant 1                                       h  +h base extra
==============                                     --- --- ---- -----
T116 p7 wheat, 5fps,       , 4h    aqueduct          0  19   11 
T117 p7 wheat, 4fps, 1pcott, 4h    aqueduct         19  21   12                               
T118 p6 wheat, 4fps,       , 4h    aqueduct         40 124   11 60 2whip                                                              
T119 p6 wheat, 3fps, 1pcott, 4h    Hanging Gardens   0 108   12 36 OF                                                                      
T120 p7 wheat, 4fps,       , 4hx2  Hanging Gardens 108  33   15                                                                              
T121 p7 wheat, 4fps,       , 4hx2  Hanging Gardens 141  33   15                                                                              
T122 p7 wheat, 4fps, 1pcott, 4h    Hanging Gardens 174 126   12 44 2chops                                                                             
T123                               done            300                                                                    
                                                                                   
T123 Variant 2                                       h  +h base extra
==============                                     --- --- ---- -----
T116 p7 wheat, 5fps, 1pcott,       aqueduct          0  14    8 
T117 p7 wheat, 4fps, 1pcott, 4h    aqueduct         14  21   12                               
T118 p6 wheat, 4fps,       , 4h    aqueduct         35 124   11 60 2whip                                                              
T119 p6 wheat, 3fps, 1pcott, 4h    Hanging Gardens   0 101   12 33 OF                                                                      
T120 p7 wheat, 4fps,       , 4hx2  Hanging Gardens 101  33   15                                                                              
T121 p7 wheat, 4fps,       , 4hx2  Hanging Gardens 134  33   15                                                                              
T122 p7 wheat, 3fps, 1pcott, 4hx2  Hanging Gardens 165 135   16 44 2chops                                                                             
T123                               done            300
One additional advantage to the T123 variants is that they don't need to give up the sheep for Paris' health. Canceling that trade with Ramesses slows down +1 till T126, if I'm not mistaken.

My T120 micro listed is a little off. The conclusion is correct, HG movie starts on T124 :D.

Micro from PPP:

Paris
T116 - Barracks; Wheat,x5FPcottage,Pcottage
T117 - Aquaduct; Wheat,x5FPcottage,Pcottage
T118 - Aquaduct; Wheat,x5FPcottage,Pcottage,Pmine
T119 - Whip Aquaduct; Wheat,x5FPcottage
T120 - Hanging Gardens; Wheat,x5FPcottage,Pcottage
T121-T123 Hanging Gardens; Wheat,x4FPcottage,Pcottage,x2Pmine (One FPcottage given to Orleans)
T124-T126 Forge; Wheat,x4FPcottage,Pcottage,x2Pmine


Hanging Gardens a turn earlier is tantalyzing! I'm always in favor of squeezing a wonder out a turn earlier. Looking over it now.

Woo, I see you keep Paris a size smaller so the HG doesn't trigger unhappiness (Not sure on T123 itself but possible). Also used the 2:hammers: from barracks. Unreal


The +1 from resources shouldn't matter with Ramesses. Shared civic will get us to +10 on T120 and shared religion will get us to +11 on T125 as long as we max out our fair trade realations with Ramesses first.

Only 7 weeks left to go :crazyeye:
 
Note: Edited

Gifting high gpt is only catastrophic if it doesn't result in us being able to give Brennus Trojan horse for free. War will sever the gpt deals, but we need the war success of capturing a city to end the war quickly. Giving the city back to Brennus for a peace treaty will result in unlimited opportunities to steal Iron Working.
Okay, I think I get what you're saying:

T120
Gift gpt till Cautious
Gift Trojan Horse
Steal IW
DoW, canceling gpt
(Bribe Ramesses to DoW)
Capture Trojan Horse

T123
If Steal IW = FAIL, DoP for Trojan Horse...Steal IW
Else CF/DoP, keep Trojan Horse

That makes sense to me. I haven't tested it, but it seems workable.

===

Spoiler :
Now I'll tell you why I wouldn't do that. We're not competing against our AIs. We're competing against other SG teams. Your solution makes a trade-off of
  • not Theocracy +2XP
  • not Chichen Itsa
  • 66% granary in Trojan Horse
  • Much slower teching
for
  • OBs
  • 10gpt from Brennus TRs (starting T121?)
  • 20% cheaper IW steal (OBs)
  • reconnaissance of Brennus cities/units (OBs)
  • possibility for free courthouses in Brennus' cities
  • AP Res possibility for 100% granary in Trojan Horse
  • faster teching to Calendar, Monarchy for stealing
  • spread Confu to Camulodunum for 40% cheaper stealing other techs instead of gifting our cities, in addition to the 20% for OBs
  • safer detection odds for our spies
  • We could sell/gift Ramesses Theology asap to hopefully get him to build Chichen Itsa. We need to get him up to +4 for fair trade somehow anyway.
  • If Brennus builds Chichen Itsa, the 25% can be bombarded down with cats anyway.
Now if we don't like giving Brennus the +2XP Theocracy, we could consider giving him CUrrency instead to intentionally help his economy. That might get us Calendar relatively soon, which would be really good, and then Monarchy, or whatever.

ANother very good reason to do that is to get his finances in order and/or lower his HUSP (high unit spending percentage) which is a major factor in getting him to go into WHEOOHRN. See A4-A6 here:
Spoiler :
Ok it appears I was wrong about Mahatma--he can never be a Dagger/doDaggerStrategy (btw what is really meant by that?), no matter where Delhi is located on the map.
He just lacks the necessary features (high MaxWarRand, high flavor values for military, Attack UU) and often does MissionaryStrategy which excludes Dagger.

I've taken a closer look at AI_doWar and most of the relevant functions that are called there and tried to put the main checks and criteria for the AI's war planning into comprehensible(?) words (MSExcel). Some of them differ quite a lot from the descriptions in Niklas' post. For simplicity I've neglected the concept of several players forming one team (so 1 player = 1 team, note: Vassals do not join the Master's team, they will still be two separate teams with 1 player each).
The AI's current strategy and financial situation is pretty important for the likelihood of DoWs. Especially the fact that the AI will not even start thinking about any wars when it is following the GetBetterUnitsStrategy might be responsible for the much earlier DoWs on Deity compared to the lower difficulties. The AI needs to be able to build at least 2 offensive units (UNITAIs ATTACK_CITY, COUNTER, RESERVE and PILLAGE) in its capital. Units of the types Axeman, Spearman, Chariot qualify here (basically everything better than Warriors and Archers), so once it manages to hook up the necessary strategic resources it will drop that strategy and start rolling the dice. With the 2 starting settlers and discounts for training more plus the fast teching I think Deities will reach that point 1000 yrs earlier.

The other interesting factors are how Vassals and the financial situation affect the probabilities for wars. I don't really know what to think of the HUSP-factor (HighUnitSpendingPercentage). For boxed in unit spammers this should be huge (compact empire = low total expenses). E.g. checking the 990AD save of Sisiutil's ALC24 shows Mehmed with USP = 12:gold:/57:gold: = 24% (HUSP = (USP-7)/3 = 5) and 2-city-Pacal with 2:gold:/4:gold: = 50% (HUSP = 14) (note: foreign trade is not taken into account!). So they should consider a total war 6 / 15 times as often, but Pacal's power is probably much to low to actually find a valid victim.
It's also interesting how the raiders don't care about the attitude that much (NWR+10), so Boudica will declare at pleased if she is in financial trouble! (Edit: no she won't due to the capping at 99 and her NoWarProb=100)

AI_doWar_317_a.png


AI_doWar_317_b.png


The take home message (see also Niklas): Power doesn't mean anything to prevent a DoW unless you are over the relevant threshold! Attitude is much more important. If you are a Lonely Heart your are completely safe from Dogpiles and only have to fear LimitedWars from other Lonely Hearts. Have rather short borders. Don't be too close to yourself.

There is a (minor) BUG in AI_doWar as it checks bFinancesProMaxWar for limited raids instead of bFinancesProLimitedWar. There is a MAJOR (well known) BUG in CvPlayerAI::AI_playerCloseness, where the code determines the closeness of the victim to itself instead of the war planning AI's closeness to the victim, so that compact empires with many large cities make the juciest targets (AI_startWarVal). But it also affects the AI's strategy in the beginning of the game (AI_getStrategyHash). After making the first contact with a neighbor the AI will experience a sudden increase of paranoia due to the super (self-)close neighbor and drop Strategy_Peace and might directly jump to Strategy_Dagger. Daggers don't care about their money when it comes to starting a war... They also skip the whole war preparing thing (which others might drop again, see Saladin in ALC24).
The BetterAI guys have created a fix but AFAIK there is no guarantee yet, that the correct version doesn't bring up other unwanted side effects. (There are so many hard coded "x += (condition)? y : z"s and "q *= iNonsense"s in CIV's code that you just never really know what's gonna come out after killing a silly bug!)

To conveniently check and sort the several Leaders according to their WarRands and NoWarProbs or PowerRatios I've put their XML-values into an additional xls spreadsheet coarsely sorted by category. Columns are grouped and expandable, there is a "Game" column where you can put numbers in to filter everything for a current game. Leaders have their BTS-Colors.

BTS_Leaders_317.png


I hope I didn't make too many mistakes here, after all this whole war thing is a pretty complex mess.


Edit: some minor corrections:
A) 4. AI is in financial trouble when (Inflated Costs + foreign trade dificit) > 60% of (beakers per turn + taxes income + foreign trade surplus), threshold increases by additional +8% when aiming for cultural victory, +12% when at war or preparing one, +10% when researching Future Techs

D)11. the +10 for NWR also applies for Daggers when AggAI is off (beware of Daggers in financial trouble--not only will they not oppose wars when broke, they will also care less about friends)

E) 2. MaxPlotDist is 72 for Standard Maps (with cylindrical world wrap)​
Then there's also this:
Finally, how do financial troubles affect AI behaviour:
  • ...
  • Affects a little bit tech choice.
  • Under financial trouble, workers will flock more on commerce tiles to improve.
  • AI is more pugnacious if in financial troubles and will continue war little more in hope to gain from pillaging and ransacking.
  • A multitude of consequences on city build planning that I won't go into.
What is Brennus more likely to build in his cities?
Your turnset, your decision. :) I like to push the envelope. That makes a lot of people uncomfortable. I understand that. I don't understand where bcool is coming from, not caring about keeping Trojan Horse. Where's our late-game research going to come from and when?
 
Note: Edited

Okay, I think I get what you're saying:

T120
Gift gpt till Cautious
Gift Trojan Horse
Steal IW
DoW, canceling gpt
(Bribe Ramesses to DoW)
Capture Trojan Horse

T123
If Steal IW = FAIL, DoP for Trojan Horse...Steal IW
Else CF/DoP, keep Trojan Horse

...

ANother very good reason to do that is to get his finances in order and/or lower his HUSP (high unit spending percentage) which is a major factor in getting him to go into WHEOOHRN. See A4-A6 here:Then there's also this:What is Brennus more likely to build in his cities?[/SPOILER]Your turnset, your decision. :) I like to push the envelope. That makes a lot of people uncomfortable. I understand that. I don't understand where bcool is coming from, not caring about keeping Trojan Horse. Where's our late-game research going to come from and when?


That is the approach envisioned yes :). The gpt isn't to get Brennus to Cautious though, it's to fix his economic crisis. He should still take a gift city no matter what our diplo relations/WE status is. And a holy war is cheaper than outright bribing Ramesses in. A nice shared war T123 should get us to Friendly even earlier.

Bcool's (pretty sure) and my idea was to have Brennus control Trojan after the turnset was over regardless of the Iron Working steal so that we could steal Calendar later without any Worst Enemy worries with Ramesses.

We could keep Trojan ourselves if cottage spam was really a big deal, but giving it away later to try and steal Calendar will probably result in the granary being destroyed by a 2nd military retaking.

Do we need Trojan city badly to baby sit cottages? If we defer bringing Ramesses into the war, then he should remain Cautious towards Brennus and we can probably gift Trojan again later.


The points for giving Brennus techs is nice, but open borders probably won't solve his economic issues. It will still take gpt trades, and that will require war to sever (unless we give him Currency probably). The peaceful route with Brennus also gets him back on his feet, which makes people uneasy :lol:

So many intangables and goals flying around. I hate the stealing IW SGOTM requirement!!! Driving me crazier
 
That is the approach envisioned yes :). The gpt isn't to get Brennus to Cautious though, it's to fix his economic crisis. He should still take a gift city no matter what our diplo relations/WE status is.
Right, I got the two mixed up. Doesn't change the analysis though. I suspect we're going to have to pay him at least 10gpt if not upwards of 15 or 20, because he was in trouble before settling his 10th city, so that's all anti-gravy.
And a holy war is cheaper than outright bribing Ramesses in. A nice shared war T123 should get us to Friendly even earlier.
Speaking of which, if we don't cancel the sheep, we get that +1 on T123. I don't know why we're worried about giving Ramesses techs. The faster he goes the better.

Bcool's (pretty sure) and my idea was to have Brennus control Trojan after the turnset was over regardless of the Iron Working steal so that we could steal Calendar later without any Worst Enemy worries with Ramesses.

We could keep Trojan ourselves if cottage spam was really a big deal, but giving it away later to try and steal Calendar will probably result in the granary being destroyed by a 2nd military retaking.

Do we need Trojan city badly to baby sit cottages? If we defer bringing Ramesses into the war, then he should remain Cautious towards Brennus and we can probably gift Trojan again later.
The first Cottage Spam city (Trojan Horse) is huge for Paris. It means Paris can work all those 6h mines at its happy limit. If anything, I'd rather steal Calendar and other techs from Camulo. By then, we'll have time to sit our spies around. Trojan Horse will probably soon be our third best commerce city.

The points for giving Brennus techs is nice, but open borders probably won't solve his economic issues. It will still take gpt trades, and that will require war to sever (unless we give him Currency probably). The peaceful route with Brennus also gets him back on his feet, which makes people uneasy :lol:
OBs gives him +6gpt, soon to be 7, 8, 9... Currency gives him +10gpt. I'd say that solves his financial problems and then some. You two are talking about stealing Currency and currently it's slated to be done in 59 turns!?! :crazyeye: Wooden spoons here we come... ;)

So many intangables and goals flying around. I hate the stealing IW SGOTM requirement!!! Driving me crazier
Crazier? I can't wait for craziest. :cool:
 
We can send Jacques (our scout) on the Sea Vous PLas galley. If fact, we simply must, imo. Just start counting how many turns the scout saves, if our galley has to explore all that without cutting any corners...

attachment.php


If Jacques doesn't go on Sea Vous PLas, then the King is a fink. :mischief:

But if you're really concerned about barb spawning, then just send Boudica over to the island, or have her and a galley close enough to send at any minute. That scout+galley is just about our highest priority right now. Please make it happen!
 

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And pleeeease build a granary in Trojan Horse. A 66% granary is worth infinitely more than a tick-infested chariot that costs an extra 1gpt... :D

That's all my comments on your PPP. Everything I said is just my 2 cents. Good luck, Katizilla, whenever you're ready to play... :goodjob:
 
Yes we have to pick up the pace... hopefully the way forward is clear. I'm having a bit of trouble following all the issues. Sorry if my 2 cents just made things worse.

I'm happy with a 1 turn earlier HG. It is already at risk, since it has been built in the test game before this turnset even started.

If there is no risk for a -4 diplo hit with Ramesses then I'm fine with finishing the granary in TH.

However, I think a friendly Ramesses and a calendar steal is better than keeping TH personally. So I'm happy to give it back to him with the peace deal, so we can steal calendar later.

We can always settle another cottage spam city. I don't think losing TH is that big of a deal.
 
Sweet! Thanks

Also, if you are fiddling with the test game, make Orleans the Confuscian Holy City and delete Ramesses' units marching towards our borders. I was unable to figure out how to get rid of simulated Ramesses' war plotting against us. :sad:

We can always beg 10 gold in the test game before we go to war with Brennus to prevent a dog pile.

re - reading the thread, I found this post :D .

I'm terribly sorry, but I didn't make Orleans the confucian holy city nor I deleted Ramesess units :blush: .

I guess I was just focused on removing the HG build, and didn't remember to check what else had to be fixed.
 
My estimates:
Spoiler :
Code:
city      pop commerce culture research espionage DistToBib
Bibracte   6     9        9       6           
Vienne     6     4        5       0
Tolosa     6     6        5       0
Gergovia   3     4        2       0
Camulo     3    14        2       0
Verlamium  3     4        2       0                   4
Durnovar   3     3        2       0                   7
Isca       1     2        0       0
Duro       1     1        0       0
Bagacum    1     2        0       0                   8
          --    --       --      --      --
totals    33    49       27       6       4

GNP 86-expenses
Here's an updated test save, dotmapped according to what I think is knwon or likely. Before adding Bagacum, I canceled Brennus TRs with Ramesses, at which point he wouldn't accept our cities any more. Then I added Bagacum.
.
Not sure this helps you Tachy, but I think I have things pretty narrowed down.
Code:
city      pop commerce culture research espionage DistToBib
Bibracte   6     9        9       6           
Vienne     6     4        5       0
Tolosa     6     6        5       0
Gergovia   3     4        3       0
Camulo     3    14        2       0
Verlamium  3     4        2       0                   5 Bibracte-4S2W
Durnovar   3     3        2       0                   5 Bibracte-5E1N
Isca       1     2        1       0                     Borders popped T116 for +5 tiles
Duro       1     1        0       0
Bagacum    1     3        0       0                   8 Probably coastal (+5 tiles)
          --    --       --      --      --
totals    33    50       29       6       4

GNP 89-expenses
This is probably fairly accurate. Bagacum is almost surely coastal and about 8-9 tiles from Bibracte. So it got an instant TR . Both Verlamium and Durnovar are pinpointed, based on tile increase. (Brennus has the most tiles in the game, so we always know how many he has.)

Below is a save with Bagacum set for distance = 9, although my hunch is it's 8.
 
@Kaitzilla

My map analysis almost with total certainty shows that Isca just exapnded its borders. Isca is the city at Tolosa-4W. That means that the corn is now in his culture and he can farm it. That is a perfect target for a worker steal if we're going to DoW Brennus, because Adam can stand 2 tiles from the corn without being next to any hills (Geurilla II Gallic Warriors can attack over jungle hills).

Three turns after DoW/capturing Trojan Horse, we should be able to talk to Brennus. If so, then Adam is free to capture a worker if we're lucky enough for there to be one. It might be too late, but it has to road that tile first. Then CF or DoP or whatever. If we're really lucky, there might be two workers there. Adam can peek in advance.

But you somehow have to free up Adam to do that. Like Boudica? :)

Edit:
7. I would free up Adam to lurk near the corn for a worker steal, since that corn still hasn't been farmed. Emerillon is in position to fogbust barb cities while Boudica moves over to replace Adam. Emerillon has to defog the desert at Clams-1E for the next two turns. That allows Adam to start moving east immediately.
 
Will Brennus DoW us?

I studied DanF's post on AI DoW and if I understand it correctly, as long as we are not a land target of Brennus (>7 anywhere adjacent tiles), the chances of him DoWing us are:

If Dagger or not in financial trouble, then 1% per turn.
If not Dagger, but in financial trouble, then 0%.

The chances that Brennus is in Dagger strategy are 3/11, depending on the coordinates of his capital city. We don't know whether he is or not.

Shortly after we settle Clams/Sugar, we'll become Brennus' land target and the odds of a DoW for each turn will go up to (3 rolls of the dice):

1%, 1,67%, 4%.

This may explain why Brennus hasn't declared on us yet. We're not a land target yet, so the odds were 1% for a while and if Brennus is not in the sagger strategy, recently have been 0%. Thiss might be a reason to not settle clams/suger before clams/FPs, even if we risk Brennus settling it. Of course, if we're ready to go to war with him, then it doesn't matter.
 
Barb Spawning on Barb Island Revisted

Unless there are AI units somewhere on that landmass, killing barbs, then I don't think it's possible for a barb to spawn on this side of the Barb Island. When we killed the barb warrior, the next turn a new one spawned somewhere on the landmass, thus refilling the quota for the landmass. Until another barb gets killed, no more will spawn.

We should still play it somewhat safely by moving Crusoe toward the center, in case there are AIs off in the distance, but I think Jacques the scout is free to jump on the galley.
 
@Kaitzilla

My map analysis almost with total certainty shows that Isca just exapnded its borders. Isca is the city at Tolosa-4W. That means that the corn is now in his culture and he can farm it. That is a perfect target for a worker steal if we're going to DoW Brennus, because Adam can stand 2 tiles from the corn without being next to any hills (Geurilla II Gallic Warriors can attack over jungle hills).

Three turns after DoW/capturing Trojan Horse, we should be able to talk to Brennus. If so, then Adam is free to capture a worker if we're lucky enough for there to be one. It might be too late, but it has to road that tile first. Then CF or DoP or whatever. If we're really lucky, there might be two workers there. Adam can peek in advance.

But you somehow have to free up Adam to do that. Like Boudica? :)

Edit:

I'll fix the PPP to get earlier Hanging Gardens soon.

I'm pretty sure Drunk Pigs will have happy problems if a unit like Boudica doesn't garrison it, but it should only be a turn if we use the Conf. Missionary to spread. I spose Adam can try for a last second worker steal at corn.

Ya, we can do granary and just keep Trojan instead of giving it to Brennus for peace if it's that important. Calendar can always be stolen from a different Brennus city with all of our espionage later. Won't consider giving Trojan for DoP unless both IW attempts fail first.

The scout hmmm. Again with happy problems, but not impossible to manage. I spose the scout can go.


Still pondering if open borders with Brennus T117-T120 is worth a few techs. Sure it will lower the gpt needed, but we are planning on severing that with war anyway. The trade routes and gems will be useless because they will be ending before they kick in. The minor scouting might be valuable for locating corn workers.

The Chichen Itza, it still takes the same number of catapult bombards to get to 0% defenses right? Maybe he can have Code of Laws. That way when we see him building Itza somewhere we can have one of our cities do the same for some nice fail gold later. And free courthouses are nice, he can put that Organized Religion to use and generate espionage he can't use yet. It might even speed up Calendar for us. Not gonna give him Currency. Just can't do it.
 
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